Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes relates the final Nielsen poll for the year has landed well above the market average for the Coalition, whose two-party lead has gone from 55-45 in the previous month’s poll to 57-43. This has come off the back of a four-point gain on the primary vote to 49 per cent, with Labor down one to 29 per cent and the Greens down three to 11 per cent. Julia Gillard is on 35 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, which are down four and up one on last time, but nonetheless similar to Newspoll’s 36 per cent and 56 per cent. Tony Abbott is steady on approval at 41 per cent and down one on disapproval to 53 per cent, which is far more favourable than Newspoll’s 33 per cent and 57 per cent. Whereas Newspoll has shown Julia Gillard opening a solid lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, Nielsen finds the 45-45 draw in the last poll turning into a 46-42 lead for Abbott. Support for gay marriage is down five points on last month’s poll to 57 per cent. Uranium sales to India has 32 per cent support and 57 per cent opposition.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition lead nudging up from 54-46 to 55-45, the result of a one point gain on the primary vote to 48 per cent with Labor and the Greens steady on 34 per cent and 10 per cent. On the monthly personal ratings, Tony Abbott has scored what is comfortably his worst ever result from Essential, with his approval down four to a new low of 32 per cent, disapproval upon to a new high of 53 per cent. Julia Gillard has dropped three points on approval to 34 per cent with disapproval steady on 54 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly from 41-36 to 39-35. Respondents were also asked for which industries, parties and leaders it had been a good or bad year; which government decisions have been most important for Australia’s future; which media are most trusted; and whether the Press Council is doing a good job of regulating the press. Read all about it here.

You can also view full tables from the Nielsen poll here, complete with state breakdowns and such. These show the Coalition’s two-party vote in New South Wales four points higher than last month’s polls, but little change in Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,890 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition”

  1. [Gweneth01 Gweneth
    @
    @latikambourke And TA has to wait for people to die before he can reshuffle his. Although some of them look close to it.]

    I love twitter!

  2. joe et al

    from my understanding both words are actually anti semitic

    i used gewgaw (jewjaw) once and my then business partners (jewish peeps) went ballistic

    yid is another term that is deeply offensive

  3. [gusface

    Posted Tuesday, December 13, 2011 at 9:44 am | Permalink

    mari

    its the only explanation for the journos behaviour]
    Plus Finns other explanation re Journos are misogynists ? at heart, tweeted back to you

  4. Well, I quite like the reshuffle. I think Pliberseck to Health and Roxon to AG are both very positive moves, and at least as important as the Shorten appointment (which I also think will be an effective one). Combet strikes me as a very effective minister, and deserved a boost.

    One major regret for mine is that Macklin retains Aboriginal Affairs. Needs a separate ministry, run by someone less wedded to a “whack ’em into being whitefellas” mentality.

  5. The continued mockery by the msm of the creation of a Minister for Emergencies (!!!) and having that Minister in cabinet (!!!) demonstrates that they still have no real grasp of climate change.

    Yes, if the natural disasters we’ve been seeing over the last decade or so were an abberation, then the creation of the position and the importance it’s been given could be questioned – although the enquiry into the latest Victorian floods recommended the creation of a similar position.

    But the most consistent prediction by climate scientists – certainly since I started studying the issue seriously, well over a decade ago – has been that we can expect an increase in the number and frequency of such events. In fact, the increase in the number and frequency of natural emergencies meant that insurance companies decided well over a decade ago that something was happening.

    In that context, when natural disasters have such a devastating effect on our economy, and a swift and effective response can minimise this – as well as lessening human suffering! – the creation of such a Ministry with such a profile makes perfect sense.

    Be good if our media looked through that prism, and used it as an excuse to explain to the ordinary punter of the consequences of unabated climate change.

    But they won’t – because that would require a bit of effort.

  6. [confessions

    Posted Tuesday, December 13, 2011 at 9:50 am | Permalink

    Gweneth01 Gweneth
    @
    @latikambourke And TA has to wait for people to die before he can reshuffle his. Although some of them look close to it.

    I love twitter]
    Wow one the best I have seen from Latika for a while. Needed a laugh as have to go to a funeral of an old local idenity, good innings 92, a real pet.

  7. [The continued mockery by the msm of the creation of a Minister for Emergencies (!!!) and having that Minister in cabinet (!!!) demonstrates that they still have no real grasp of climate change.]

    It is as if they completely forgot what happened earlier this year. The eternal present lives on…

  8. fess

    Good on you and fellow PBers. I couldn’t gather my thoughts enough to put together a coherent argument. Sounds like you’re in good company though.

    [This Inquiry is seeking to establish whether there are issues,
    which affect the Australian media’s ability to act in the public
    interest and whether current standards and codes of practice
    fulfill their goals of pursuit of truth, and ‘fair and accurate’
    reporting.

    As I have already argued in a submission to the inquiry, the
    quality of reporting on the critical issue of climate change
    provides a litmus test in seeking answers to the Inquiry’s
    terms of reference.
    Professor Wendy Bacon
    December 1, 201]

    Wendy Bacon is a Professor of Journalism based at the ACIJ of which she is a former director. In recent years, she has published in the SMH, The Age, Crikey.com, The Conversation and New Matilda. She has also published in Pacific Journalism Review, Australian Journalism Review and Media International Australia.

  9. Last night, the former prime minister launched the publication, the latest from controversial geologist Professor Ian Plimer.

    I heard some of Howard’s “launch speech”. He sounded like some old git well past his use-by-date waffling on in some past era. He governed this country looking at the past and still can’t bring himself to look to the future.

  10. Can one of you learned pb write to tingle
    and explain
    every state has a department of emercency services
    And a. Minister who may also be the police minister
    Me thinks she should move out and about from her tiny canberra office

  11. [gusface

    Posted Tuesday, December 13, 2011 at 9:57 am | Permalink

    mari

    i think that tweet was from gwen to fatima

    fatima would never diss her hero]
    You are right I got all excited when I read it, should have known that TA is her “He Man” hero and not to be spoken against

  12. zoomster

    I posted something similar yesterday. With the recent floods, fires, etc, affecting housing and accommodation as well, it is sensible preparation for the future.
    But no, it’s just floss to the msm.

  13. I suppose Plimer’s book will be promoted in the “creationist” schools.
    How did we ever get such a fool as Howard for PM?
    And he’s held up as a model? Jesus wept.

  14. GG

    Duplicitous Abbott strikes again. What’ll the moderates do about it. Absolutely nothing.

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/abbott-wins-the-day-on-gay-marriage-vote-20111212-1ori3.html

    Probably too early to say how moderate Lbs will react.

    The legislation is unlikely to go before the House until last-Feb/ early March at the earliest; probably until a few other Bills eg Pokie reform, clear it – and possibly (as a tactical move) the Q legislation is implemented. The bill will have to be drafted in the way most likely to shield it from HCA challenges – therefore involving new AG Nicola Roxon whose pre-MP role in the HCA will be an advantage, but she & the Dept might need a settling-in period. So the Private Members Bill might need some informal ‘committee-stage’ meetings before it goes to the Drafters. Maybe March?

    Meanwhile, Abbott will extend his Australia’s Greatest Political Loser record with the MRRT etc, and Brandis absorb the legal implications of Nicola Roxon as AG; inc his own interfering behaviour.

    That an MP with an HCA background is now AG indicates Labor’s belief it will have to fight HCA actions by more than cigarette companies, Big Miners and Clubs&Pubs Inc; and there’s no way Brandis, J Bishop & other L-NP legal-eagles wouldn’t be caucusing re Labor’s loading legal canons for broadsides & having to facing formidable lawyers inc Combet, Roxon, Wong, Shorten (Jesuit ed, Melb’s Xavier College) now they, colleagues &PM have discovered their inner staffi-pit-bull-Alsatian-Rottweiler mongrel selves.

    I’m making no premature prognostications re where Libs will be any time soon; or even were they will be when Parliament meets after 1 July’s CP Implementation. Nor how they’ll react to Durban’s entrenchment of CP/ETS. Nor to 2010’s Black Hole revelations (& legal action) and impact on oppo’s financial credibility all the way to next election. Nor ways they can repeal this government’s current & future legislation to deliver Abbott’s promise to repeal it all.

    Abbott’s created too many big financial and credibility holes, believing in continuing future media support while they both trash everything labor does; though Media Inquiries & new ABC Chairman & NewsLtd management might curtail it.

    BTW. There’s a great Thesis-being-created between the current Fed ALP & L-NP Catholic School Mafia (mainly blokes). Shades of the early 50s! Except the LNP now owns the Grouper Right! 👿 If there’s a christian heaven, my Darling Dad is rolling in the clouds laughing (his exNatTU Pres s-i-l has to make do with earthly aisles & carpets; his doting daughter without aisles. 😀

  15. If the hacks, even Laura Tingle, decide to go all cynical and nihilistic, nothing will stop them.

    [In fact, in the circumstances, creating a cabinet job for Robert McClelland as minister for disasters suggests someone in the government may actually have a very black sense of humour.]

    She’s got to be kidding!

    In a year where two major cyclones and tempestuous floods virtually wiped out Queensland, with more forecast this summer, causing a major pothole to appear in the national accounts, forcing home insurance all over the country up by hundreds of dollars, leading into a narrative about the grand scale effects of Global Warming, as well as creating political mayhem over the Flood Levy, Laura Tingle thinks a ministry dealing with disaster response is not important enough to score a Cabinet gig?

    If the portents are right, Robert McLelland is going to be run off his arse over Xmas-New Year organizing this season’s disaster responses.

    Fires in WA, cyclones in Queensland, floods in Brisbane and Victoria and God knows what else to come should be dealt with not as ad hoc responses and photo ops, with the heads of government judged by their apparent “sincerity” (or otherwise), or how many tears (or otherwise) they shed.

    Nor should they be countered by even more ad hoc legislation, one-off stuff that gives

    * every independent a fresh axe to grind,
    * every whinger moaning about how they’ll never give another cent to charity,
    * tax revolters carping on about Labor ripping off the $150,00 battlers, and
    * shock jock bogans doing “rorts watch” duty (the government’s either too stingy, or too loose with public money, preferably both)

    the opportunity to reprise their misery with the new disaster season.

    Disasters need their own department, close to the Prime Minister, with Cabinet rank, so that they can be combatted with seniority and professionalism.

    As Global Warming progresses, sure we can trade securities and bet on Carbon Credits, but somewhere, on the ground, in the Cabinet, we have to save lives, rebuild homes and infrastructure, shelter the afflicted and protect the economy in an orderly fashion, with a bureaucracy that has clout, Cabinet clout.

    I’m disappointed with McClellend for making his personal anguish about losing the plum, but wood-panelled sinecure of A-G’s for something that might involve him in actually getting off his pin-striped posterior and getting his hands dirty for a change, instead of wringing them over the High Court’s whimsical decisions on asylum Seekers (you didn’t see that one coming, did you, Robert?).

    I’m also disappointed with journos, unfortunately today including Tingle, who see a cheap shot at “Teh Politics” and strained irony about “disasters” (tee-hee) – pub-talk really, more suitable for Chrissy drinks than a national newspaper – as more important than thinking the decision through to its logical conclusion: that disasters are and have been major problems for this government and this nation, there’s more of them to come, and we’d better get used to it.

    [The reshuffle is seen there for what it is: a payback to the warlords who orchestrated the coup against Kevin Rudd. ]

    Well, no shit Shakespeare! The government is guilty, m’lud, of politics! Who’d a thunk it?

    Gillard has laboured under a Rudd ministry now for nearly 18 months. In effect Rudd has been calling the tune. This is Gillard’s way of saying she’ll make her own decisions, thanks very much Kevin.

    Rudd botched the Sky tender by even offering them the chance. Gillard had to unwind that, and not in a pretty way. But so what? Were we going to give Murdoch The Malignant, a cosy government revenue stream so he could spout his anti-Labor poison Asia-wide?

    Rudd buggered up the RSPT by refusing to sell it (unless you include the kids’ coloring-in book TV spots “selling”) because that would have been too hard. A year later, with a watered down deal forced on her, the public is starting to hate miners for, not just shitting in their own nests, but shitting in everyone’s nest. We could have had billions more in revenue, but Rudd squibbed it.

    Just as he squibbed the CPRS, only weakly pushing the point that it wasn’t completely off the agenda, but deferred until the Parliament came to its senses (Lateline is no excuse for being late). As a result we went to an election with the opinionistas spouting nonsense about how Labor had abandoned Climate Change altogether. Gillard’s “There will be no Carbon Tax…” comments have to be read in that light.

    As many have noted, Gillard has been putting out fires the arsonist Rudd had started. Like all good arsonists, he’s always “here to help” in the cleanup afterwards. Every whiff of scorched earth, barbequed, bloated cattle and humanity he can soak up into his nostrils is rose water to him as he goes about his “Good Guy”, “I’m From Queensland” character impersonation.

    Gillard is stretched for numbers, a reality that journalists eschew in favour of words like “weak” and “embattled”. Well, Reality Check #2: the punters voted for it, and now probably the only person who could have is making a fist of it, and a pretty good one too.

    Today we are seeing Gillard pick her own fire brigade, instead of being forced to use the tired remnants of the previous boss’s team who don’t seem to know whether they should be fighting fires or lighting more.

    It’s politics, Laura. On a good day you can distinguish between “politics” and “governance”.

    But sadly, not today.

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/payback_for_labor_warlords_DjRdwq0mapY5mQex3I1YBJ

  16. howard lying his butt off yet again.

    This is what he said last night –

    Mr Howard helped launch the book and last night said the “progressive left” had a “grip on the commanding heights of education instruction in this country”.

    He also clarified why he went to the 2007 election promising an emissions trading scheme.

    “I proposed an emissions trading scheme and some people say, ‘Well why on earth did you do that?'” he said.

    “[It was] predicated on the rest of the world moving in the same direction and also predicated on a structure that would preserve the international competitiveness of those industries that gave our country a competitive trade advantage, it could do no harm.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-13/howard-lends-support-to-anti-climate-change-book/3727650/?site=sydney

    But this is really what is on the record about the climate change policy he took to the 2007 election –

    Howard protested to a newspaper columnist about Gillard using his commitment to an emissions trading system before he lost office in 2007 to help justify her own scheme.

    While conceding that he had promised to bring in an ETS by 2012, Howard claimed: “I indicated at the time that we would act in concert with the rest of the world and not ahead of it.”

    But what did Howard really say back then?

    “Australia will continue to lead internationally on climate change, globally and in the Asia-Pacific region,” he told a Liberal Party federal council meeting after unveiling his ETS blueprint.

    “This will be a world-class emissions trading system more comprehensive, more rigorously grounded in economics, and with better governance than anything in Europe.”

    In an address to the Melbourne Press Club a month later, Howard said: “In the years to come it will provide a model for other nations to follow.

    “Being among the first movers on carbon trading in this region will bring new opportunities and we intend to grasp them.”

    And there was this exchange at a news conference in the run-up to the election that saw him defeated by Kevin Rudd.

    Journalist: Haven’t you locked Australia into an emissions trading scheme in the next term?

    Howard: Yes, I have.

    Journalist: Regardless of what our trading competitors do?

    Howard: Yes, but that is precisely the sort of contribution we should make.

    So Howard – Honest John was his nickname, remember? – is trying to rewrite history.

    Now the media KNOW this, they have it at their fingers tips.

    As usual its not being challenged.

  17. From some of the gloomy commentary over the last week or so, it seems that some PBs have forgotten that 2012 was always going to be the year of a big move back in the polls (if there is going to be one), not 2011. The small gains from the Qantas fiasco and the Obama visit etc. were a bonus, nothing more.

    When the compensation for the CT starts hitting people’s pockets and Abbott has to deal with telling them that he is going to withdraw it and that prices will start start coming down when he rescinds the CT, we will see what happens. Until then, our expectations for a big improvement in the polls should be kept well and truly on hold.

  18. lizzie

    [How did we ever get such a fool as Howard for PM?]

    GenX voters across the employment spectrum! Also, if you watch OpPolls’ generational breakdowns, GenX is the demographic shifting back to the Libs since Rudd started to alienate voters (autumn 2010) as well as his colleagues. On some questions, GenX is more conservative than over 55’s – which, of course, is getting less so as Whitlam’s Boomers crowd in and Menzies’ ’49ers die.

    Since UK Civil War factions became Whigs & Tories, Parliament entrenched its supremacy & Walpole became the first PM, UK HoC politics – the postRoman only elected House with such a long recorded history – has shown the same sort of generational swings; probably because nature builds in & entrenches (some sort of) adolescent rebellion as a way of making offspring strike out on their own.

  19. Bushfire

    Strong metaphors. Well said.
    [Today we are seeing Gillard pick her own fire brigade, instead of being forced to use the tired remnants of the previous boss’s team who don’t seem to know whether they should be fighting fires or lighting more.]

  20. Madcyril

    gymcrack is an old old word meaning shoddy. My father used it. I probably do too but never wrote it. I would probably have spelled it “jimcrack”

  21. [Heavy rain caused widespread damage across Perth and the Great Southern overnight, as flash flooding caused evacuations and the closure of at least one major highway.

    More than 60 FESA State Emergency Service volunteers from 16unitsresponded to 76 calls for help as the storm front crossed just before 10pm.

    Heavy falls of rain were recorded in Wandering 82mm, Mandurah 69mm, Katanning 54mm, Perth 44mm, Wliiams 44mm, Mt Magnet 41mm, Champion Lakes 34mm, Lake Grace 32mm, Swanbourne 30mm and Collie 25mm.

    Most SES callouts were from homeowners requiring sandbagging and help with damaged roofs. A caravan at the Kingsley Caravan Park was crushed by a tree.]

    [In the Great Southern, Williams and Narrogin received significant flood damage with homes and roads flooded.

    Williams was isolated overnight as flooding closed Albany Highway. It has just reopened. The Williams-Narrogin Road remains closed.]

    But the inclusion of a Minister for Emergency Services in Cabinet is mocked by our msm.

    http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/12331416/flooding-damage-across-perth-and-great-southern/

  22. BB, another terrific post.

    It appeared the MSM was turning, starting to be less negative about Gillard and more negative about Abbott.

    This may have just been because the polls were turning. Now they are heading back toward the coalition, its back to their old ways it seems

  23. Kezza

    Wendy Bacon has a fascinating history including her attempts to become a barrister in NSW which were thwarted by the NSW Bar association.

  24. And even if Gillard is shoring up her supporters, solidifying her position- isn’t that what she is supposed to do? Isn’t that what any leader would do?

    It seems everything she does is wrong, because it’s her thats doing it

  25. confessions you mention the SELLING issue. I have heard countless press conferences were Gillard and Swan have tried to sell the economy and other issues, but it does not get reported

  26. [confessions you mention the SELLING issue. I have heard countless press conferences were Gillard and Swan have tried to sell the economy and other issues, but it does not get reported]
    Likewise and some here buy the old MSM argument that Labor are poor at selling their message. Well, let’s see next year if the MSM will report the government’s message.

  27. Re: Howard and Plimer’s fossil-funded propaganda for schools.

    I expect he’ll next be launching books on intelligent design to overcome the lefty bias toward evolution.

    The problem is that this book could work. The poor standards of science education and underpaying of teachers is getting to the point of being intergeneration – many people teaching science at schools do not have science degrees and would not have had science teachers with science degrees when they went through high school. A down side of 20 years of economic growth is that scientists can now get jobs other than teaching – I was blessed going to high school in the later 70s and early 80s when there were few non-teaching jobs for even very good science graduates, who had been taught by science graduates because teachers were once more adequately paid.

    no doubt Keith Windshuttle is working on a kiddies book about how well Aboriginals were treated. Johnny would launch that for sure.

    Another thought – should we consider it a victory of sort that environmentalism is so mainstream that the right think counter views will get you expelled? Back in the 70s and 80s environmentalism was radical.

  28. What I don’t get about Howard is his apparent about-face on climate change.

    Bear in mind it was only 5 short years ago that he was heading into an election with a policy to introduce an ETS, and telling us all that Australia was going to lead the world on this very important issue, blah, blah, blah.

    Was he lying then or is he lying now?

    Either way, his bloody pants are on fire.

  29. We all need to remember how John Howard got that ‘Honest John’ nickname. Because I’m old I can remember how it happened, so here’s a history lesson.

    Fraser and Howard went into the 1977 election campaign with the infamous Fistful of Dollars ads showing money from promised tax cuts being thrust at voters. After the election the budget was in such bad shape that the tax cuts could not be sustained. In the 1978 budget Treasurer Howard brought in an income tax levy of 1.5% which effectively negated the tax cuts. This damaged the credibility of the Fraser government and of John Howard, who was then stuck with the ‘Honest John’ tag.

    Over time Howard somehow managed to con voters into believing that the tag was actually a compliment. Just shows how stupid the average Aussie voter really is.

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