Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes relates the final Nielsen poll for the year has landed well above the market average for the Coalition, whose two-party lead has gone from 55-45 in the previous month’s poll to 57-43. This has come off the back of a four-point gain on the primary vote to 49 per cent, with Labor down one to 29 per cent and the Greens down three to 11 per cent. Julia Gillard is on 35 per cent approval and 58 per cent disapproval, which are down four and up one on last time, but nonetheless similar to Newspoll’s 36 per cent and 56 per cent. Tony Abbott is steady on approval at 41 per cent and down one on disapproval to 53 per cent, which is far more favourable than Newspoll’s 33 per cent and 57 per cent. Whereas Newspoll has shown Julia Gillard opening a solid lead over Tony Abbott as preferred prime minister, Nielsen finds the 45-45 draw in the last poll turning into a 46-42 lead for Abbott. Support for gay marriage is down five points on last month’s poll to 57 per cent. Uranium sales to India has 32 per cent support and 57 per cent opposition.

UPDATE: Essential Research has the Coalition lead nudging up from 54-46 to 55-45, the result of a one point gain on the primary vote to 48 per cent with Labor and the Greens steady on 34 per cent and 10 per cent. On the monthly personal ratings, Tony Abbott has scored what is comfortably his worst ever result from Essential, with his approval down four to a new low of 32 per cent, disapproval upon to a new high of 53 per cent. Julia Gillard has dropped three points on approval to 34 per cent with disapproval steady on 54 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed slightly from 41-36 to 39-35. Respondents were also asked for which industries, parties and leaders it had been a good or bad year; which government decisions have been most important for Australia’s future; which media are most trusted; and whether the Press Council is doing a good job of regulating the press. Read all about it here.

You can also view full tables from the Nielsen poll here, complete with state breakdowns and such. These show the Coalition’s two-party vote in New South Wales four points higher than last month’s polls, but little change in Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,890 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition”

Comments Page 31 of 138
1 30 31 32 138
  1. Good morning, Bludgers.

    It is a truth universally acknowledged, that a white-haired old widow in possession of a good good insurance rainwater-coverage and Government dental grant, must be in want of being dudded. (Apologies to Jane Austen)

    1. First the insurance-approved firm to repair water damage.

    Any firm which sends a 10 Jan 2011 flood-damage repair contract:
    (a) with a bloke who can’t/won’t explain why expensive early 70s building materials (inc good, plantation rainforest ‘faced timber’) are to be replaced by cheap crap like fibro & finger-jointed off-cuts
    (b) about half the damage (shown by me to said bloke) is not to be rectified
    (c) and the bloke asks her to sign the contract, but fails to mention the cooling-off period
    is seriously asking for trouble (such a contract is illegal).

    Said bloke’s reaction to my cool, “I’ll be referring this to my solicitor. I intend to challenge this contract”, was priceless.

    2. Yesterday I learnt why the Commonwealth Dental Scheme for the Chronically Ill is in such dire financial trouble. The difference between the cost on the quotation of work (I still have my copy) and the Medibank claim was just under +50%.

    I would not have known this if the work hadn’t meant I needed new “plates” (partial dentures). The remainder of the grant left only a c$150 gap; what Medibank said was left of my $4,250 was c$1,300 short, so the practice rang me, and I rang the dental practice.

    I was getting absolutely nowhere until I sighed, “As if a company trying to dud me over my 10 January insurance damage claim wasn’t enough! The last thing I need is to have to go back to my solicitor with another attempt.” I didn’t even get a chance to start on “a face-to-face meeting with my local MP McFarlane” before “I’ll speak to the practice manager. He’ll contact you tomorrow.”

    I’ll be on the phone to Medibank this morning. And yes, I will be making formal complaints, through my referring health professionals, probably through “Chainsaw” since it is a Howard scheme, certainly to the Fed Health Dept.

    Sadly, for me they’re not isolated cases. Soon as my fine, fluffy hair went white, the vultures arrived. Women of my era are considered the classic “cabbages/ vegies”; stay-at-home mums who salved suburban isolation and loneliness with “a cuppa tea, bex and a good lie down” then, “mother’s little helpers”, like amatyl. Dumb idea.

    Pity getting justice from ageist shonks takes money and so much effort. At least I know my rights.

  2. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Spot the difference. When #MSMhacks ask PM Gillard questions, it’s “Kick Ass”, when they ask Abbott, it’s “kiss ass” #auspol
    17 seconds ago

  3. Its so interesting to see the usual hacks spin the reshuffle. Grattan goes with a very negative rewarding henchmen slant. Yahoo7 new yesterday went with the girl power/ female representation angle

  4. [daretotread

    Surely there ARE deep divisions in the Lib ranks

    Ddespite the party’s polling Abbott is still unpopular. Surely there are destabilisers in the LNP waiting to pounce –Not Turnbull who is still on the outer]

    Yes. And no.

    The bigger divisions are on IR, budgeting and industry policy. However, whilst the Libs primary is over 45% he is safe as houses. Remember that before Abbott took over it looked like those such as Pyne were going to lose their seat. And everyone who won their seat for the first time is clearly in the Abbott camp.

    And Abbott backers would rather blow up the party than have him lose the leadership.

    New leadership would trigger an existential debate about the meaning and purpose of the Liberal Party. And they know that would be too painful to bear.

  5. Possum is a national treasure. What makes the polls so galling (apart from the fact that what is essentially a good government is miles behind a very bad opposition) is that the economic conditions are no recognised as as good as they are.

    Imagine what the polls would be if we had a MSM that out the rabble under appropriate scrutiny, and highlighted the good economic conditions?

    BTW PVO’s cheap shot at Swan yesterday revealed his bias. He is a Liberal hack and tries to pretend otherwise. Who would u want running the economy if not the worlds best finance minister? Black hole Hockey??

  6. Rudd on AM earlier: Highlighted Kim Carr’s achievements in previous portfolios, but stressed that cabinet appointments are a matter for the Prime Minister alone.

  7. bluegreen, no doubt Abbott is a compulsive liar, and does it with ease. His position is that it is up to the party room but he has already announced the outcome before taking it to the party room. What a leader

  8. This reshuffle does nothing. Deck chairs on the Titanic. When the Noalition’s way ahead on issues like the environment and best able to manage the economy, Gillard’s position is terminal. Swan hopeless, still there. McLelland harmless, dumped. A bad look. Shorten has a nice smile but blathers.

    Abbott is cynical, negative, duplicitous, but consistently on message. Pink batts are etched in the electorate’s consciousness. Dodging the recession doesn’t register. It’s all about waste and deficit.

    Gillard is hated. Surrounding herself with the sisterhood won’t help. Labor can’t win, but a couple of strategies might limit the damage. Smith should take over now. He’s safe and women like him. More risky, hang on to Gillard till the last minute and then run with Rudd. That might work but it won’t happen. Fear the worst.

  9. Andrew:

    A major part of the reason that the public don’t appreciate the fundamentals of our economy can be placed at the feet of the govt which has failed to properly sell its reforms and its response to the GFC.

    If you think back to Rudd’s time as PM, the media strategy was daily announceables which robbed ministers of an opportunity to have a dialogue with the public. Swan also doesn’t communicate very well either.

  10. conf:
    [Tingle not happy with reshuffle.]

    Tingle:
    [In fact, in the circumstances, creating a cabinet job for Robert McClelland as minister for disasters suggests someone in the government may actually have a very black sense of humour.]

  11. poroti
    [With well ovet $1 trillion worth of goodies to be dug up I reckon the Olympic Dam going ahead will be a pretty good bet.]
    I agree but the issue is the timing. Olympic Dam has been on the agenda for SA since 2006. BHPB were ready to commit to it in 2008 but held off due to the GFC. So much for mining saving us from the GFC! (BHPB later admitted this was a mistake in investment strategy, because they could have built it more cheaply if they went ahead while there were idle resources.) In the mean time the Adelaide economy went soft again.

    I don’t doubt Olympic Dam will go ahead, but the question is when. If BHPB delay, and Holden confirm a long term shutdown of the Commodore in the mean time, the period in between the two decisions will probably see lots of firms reluctant to hire in Adelaide. The cutback in SA State expenditure isn’t helping either.

  12. Abbott’s refusal to grant a conscience vote on gay marriage should be highlighted by Labor. There are a lot of vote’s at stake on perceptions of Abbott’s religeous zealotry. Especially female voters. What if he is PM and ther eis a question over rights to terminate pregnancies, or medicare funding? This is a man that was reluctant to give his own daughters the HPV vaccine. The perception of Tony Abbott as a mad monk is the reality. Lets hope next election campaign the voters are reminded.

  13. [theburgerman John Bergin
    From NZ: David Shearer has been elected Labour leader, and Grant Robertson has been elected as deputy Labour leader.]

  14. Toorak
    woman li,e mr smith
    He is a nice person
    Same as juliay,

    2 years before an election to come out and sound so sure and so assertive, about titanic and deck chairs, polls up down ect are only a snap shot of people phoned on the day,
    Last week newspoll had us 7 behind do u really believe that could double in a week
    I don’t. I place no store on them at all
    At this time
    Dont you think a female is up to the job
    She is doing a better job than any male p. M I can remember

    do you think a man from WA that people on the eastern side of aust,
    See occassionaly, mr smith nice guy not s pm in my humble opi opinion,,,’

    Far to quite. .not known and doesn’t have the numbers.
    So fed up with oepple decrying the pm
    Smith and anyone else would bed treated the same

  15. Always know when there is a dip for ALP in Polls, the likes of Stanny, Sammy sparrow, even Marky Marky and SpinUP make their appearances, never to be seen or heard from(except Sparrow) most times.

  16. The really really big story from yesterday was Dave Warner.

    Only the sixth person EVER to carry his bat in the fourth innings of a test match. And of those six he scored the highest score.

    Not bad for a so-called 20/20 specialist.

  17. Triton:

    The bit about Arbib keeping his job so he could go to the Olympics came up yesterday at the PM’s presser. I don’t think JG actually said as much directly, but it was the inference given.

  18. You nasty person
    Who says gillard is hated
    That is a nasty nasty word
    Every time we have a bad pol the nasties come out
    Don’t bother spreading negatives here. There is enough of thsts out there
    Every one o know that live in toorak aew libersls

  19. [confessions

    Posted Tuesday, December 13, 2011 at 9:24 am | Permalink

    theburgerman John Bergin
    From NZ: David Shearer has been elected Labour leader, and Grant Robertson has been elected as deputy Labour leader.]

    It would be fantastic for comedians in Australia if NZ one day had Shearer as their leader.

  20. the journos are sad they couldnt sip shandys at abbootts feet

    lovingly gazing at his budgies in all their glory

    they had prepared all the gear and buffed up their bits

    Sadly no drinkies at the lodge

    therefore julia must pay for this insult

  21. [Former prime minister John Howard has lent his support to a book aimed at school children which argues the theory of human-induced global warming is a scam.

    Last night, the former prime minister launched the publication, the latest from controversial geologist Professor Ian Plimer.

    The book, called How to Get Expelled From School, rejects the predominant scientific opinion on climate change.

    The book is billed as “an anti-global warmist manual for the younger reader”.]

    Howard is beginning to look like a bad drag act. Or maybe he’s just showing his true colours.

  22. confessions, I think she put it terms of its being an important year sports-wise. It didn’t occur to me from what she said that she was handing Arbib a junket, but it could well be true. I’d still rather have Kate Ellis as sports minister.

  23. A timely study of media bias (coverage of CC policy) to be presented to our very own media inquiry.

    [The Australian Centre for Independent Journalism (ACIJ) has released research showing news coverage of the carbon price debate in Rupert Murdoch’s News Limited papers had negative coverage outweigh positive coverage by 82% to 18%.]

    Other interesting tidbits at just how unbalanced coverage of the climate change debate were:

    News Limited – the company that controls most Australian metropolitan newspapers, and The Australian – had a 4 times more negative coverage than positive coverage of the carbon price debate.

    11% of news and features quoted no source and 30% of the rest quoted only one source, not testing claims about the likely impact of the carbon policy against the views of other sources.

    Bluescope Steel was quoted 71 times. This was more than the number of times all NGOs and scientists combined.

    The Australian used ‘tax’ in 44% of stories and only ‘price’ in 11% of cases.

    Heaps more at:

    http://www.acij.uts.edu.au/pdfs/sceptical-climate-part1.pdf

  24. Don’t you llove the journalist that thinks they know more than the prime
    Minister,the housing industry came out and said they where pleased to have a minister
    In the housing area,
    The other job, is just in case
    so ms tingle must know, there will be no more bush fires, no more floods. No more strong winds
    No more bridges falling ,no more disasters of any kind.

    U can bet if the above happened, it would be
    This unprepared gov,

    , blar blar r rrrr

    Tasmania bridge 1973

    Nuff said

  25. [Former prime minister John Howard has lent his support to a book aimed at school children which argues the theory of human-induced global warming is a scam.]

    If I understand John Howard correctly from his speech at Pilmer’s book launch – AGW doesn’t exist because Robert Mugabe is still in power…

  26. kezza2:

    I put a submission into the inquiry specifically raising the reporting of climate science in the OO and the media more generally. I understand other PBers did as well, and I’m sure climate scientists would have.

    How climate science has been reported is a clear eg of how our msm has failed the public interest on the matter. It isn’t good enough, and I really do hope the inquiry has a look at it.

  27. [gusface

    Posted Tuesday, December 13, 2011 at 9:30 am | Permalink

    the journos are sad they couldnt sip shandys at abbootts feet

    lovingly gazing at his budgies in all their glory

    they had prepared all the gear and buffed up their bits

    Sadly no drinkies at the lodge

    therefore julia must pay for this insult]

    Love it Tweet it

  28. Phil Coorey uses a word I’ve never heard before in his article today. What the hell is a gimcrack?

    [
    Gillard’s inability to have Robert McClelland removed from cabinet is perhaps the most damaging element. The NSW Right demands three cabinet spots, so McClelland stayed.

    So, cabinet numbers had to be expanded and he was given a gimcrack portfolio comprising emergency management and homelessness.
    ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/pm-draws-loyalists-closer-but-reshuffle-bears-hallmarks-of-a-leader-under-pressure-20111212-1orih.html

  29. Toorak Toff,

    What a pessimistic view you have.
    [Swan hopeless, still there. McLelland harmless, dumped].

    Swan is so hopeless he’s been recognised as the world’s best treasurer and has the economy in good shape. McLelland, I agree, is harmless – so harmless that he’s been doing bugger all and now has a couple of portfolio’s which will require him to work at.

    Gillard is hated.

    Yep the Noalition and their msm supporters hate her with a vengeance. Our PM has shown her strength, determination and intelligence against unprecedented nasty attacks from the enemies of Labor. She is leading a minority government and providing good governance for the Australian people despite the opinionistas’ repetitive predictions that her government would fall this week, next week or next month. They hate her because she proves them wrong.

  30. Well when howard said we where going to have a ETS, I bleived at the time it ws wad a
    NO CORE promise,
    Still don’t know what a non core is.?

  31. [Last night, the former prime minister launched the publication, the latest from controversial geologist Professor Ian Plimer.

    The book, called How to Get Expelled From School, rejects the predominant scientific opinion on climate change.

    The book is billed as “an anti-global warmist manual for the younger reader”.]
    And how is Ian Plimer still a professor at Adelaide University? He is acting unethically in several respeects in doing this while calling himself a Professor. Yet the Adelaide Uni administration does nothing.

    I have also raised this before but evidently the Minister for Tertiary Ediucation has no ability to control tertiary education in Australai. After all, he only gives the universities money… no possible influence there. Seriously, can’t the government hold universities to accoutn for failing to enfore their own codes of behaviour?

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 31 of 138
1 30 31 32 138