Morgan face-to-face: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has published its latest face-to-face poll result on Thursday rather than the more usual Friday, and as usual the numbers require a fair degree of explanation. The headline figure of 56.5-43.5 looks like a shocker for Labor, given that this series normally leans in their favour. However, this turns out to be an artefact of Morgan favouring the respondent-allocated method of distributing minor party and independent preferences, and their odd tendency for these allocations to greatly favour the Coalition more than past election results and the respondent-allocated figures produced by Nielsen. When preferences are distributed as per the result of the previous election, which is the standard practice for all other pollsters, the result is well in line with other recent polling at 53.5-46.5. Since the previous face-to-face result a fortnight ago, both major parties are up half a point on the primary vote – Labor to 34.5 per cent, the Coalition to 47 per cent – with the Greens down two to 11.5 per cent. Labor has softened half a point on both two-party preferred measures. The poll combines results from Morgan’s last two regular weekend survey periods, accounting for a total sample of 1788.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,204 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

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  5. [Is there a wine industry in Sophie’s electorate?

    You bet! Rutherglen, part of the Yarra Valley, Beechworth and more. From the looks of her Sophie spends a lot of time supporting the local wine industry.]
    Gehrigs in Oxley & Brown Bros in Milawa.

  11. poroti
    [Watching Sky News .They say Julia Gillard made an election promise to the ACL ( Australian Christian Lobby) re gay marriage. Anyone know any details and why she should feel obliged to keep the pledge ?]
    Oh dear. That’s timely – I suggested that organisation yesterday as a possible partner in the party leadership’s contortions to avoid a change to the platform to one of removing the discrimination. No wonder none of them has been able to state their reasons for maintaining the current position. It explains Emerson’s hilarious stuttering and Gillard’s silence as to her reasons. The explanation you saw postulated certainly fits.

  13. OPT@914:

    [Finding that contradicts Einstein’s theory of special relativity is repeated with fine-tuned procedures and equipment]

    Einstein’s special and general theories are not about to disappear, just as Newton’s laws of motion didn’t, even though they were superseded by Einstein’s results for objects travelling at a significant fraction of the speed of light. Newton’s laws are still in daily use.

    But Einstein’s theories are used all day every day. Your GPS on your phone or car navigator or bushwalking GPS couldn’t function without them – the satellites have to use Einstein in order to keep accurate time.

    I read an interesting hypothesis about the neutrinos. As you know, they don’t interact with anything much, though ordinary light is affected by gravity and objects in their path.

    The speed of light was determined by calculating it for a vacuum. The trouble is that a vacuum isn’t, not even in deep space.

    Quite apart from the dustiness of deep space, there are virtual particles winking in and out of existence all the time as the light travels through apparently empty space.

    As you know, the speed of light is less if it is passing through something like glass or water, and passing through apparently empty space that is actually a seething mass of particles which appear and disappear in an unimaginably small fraction of a second, as a result of Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle might have given us a smaller value for the speed of light as compared to neutrinos, which just don’t give a damn about anything much.

    Einstein is safe.

  14. [Oh dear. That’s timely – I suggested that organisation yesterday as a possible partner in the party leadership’s contortions to avoid a change to the platform to one of removing the discrimination. No wonder none of them has been able to state their reasons for maintaining the current position. It explains Emerson’s hilarious stuttering and Gillard’s silence as to her reasons. The explanation you saw postulated certainly fits.]

    I’ll take SlyNews with a grain of salt — interesting how quick you are to believe the putrid MSM when it suits your anti-Labor agenda.

    You’re becoming most boring, Mr View.

  17. jaundiced view

    [It explains Emerson’s hilarious stuttering and Gillard’s silence as to her reasons. The explanation you saw postulated certainly fits.]
    It was on the Contraians and they spoke as if the deal was common knowledge. My question is how and why would the religious nutters of the ACL have a squirrel grip on Labor on this issue? Most of the panel wondered why parliamentarians are behind community opinion on the issue. Way weird that a lefty atheist feminist would continue to expouse such views. Views I am certain JG does not hold.

  19. [My question is how and why would the religious nutters of the ACL have a squirrel grip on Labor on this issue?]

    It started with Rudd in the 2007 campaign.

  20. Something that really really sh*ts me is that my mum has schizophrenia and when she doesn’t take her pills she ends up waffling on about ghosts and aliens and weird gods. For some reason no politician listens to her points of view when she’s having these sessions.

    HOWEVER a group of people can believe an a 3,000 year old tribal sky fairy, complete with laws designed by (apparently) an old guy that talked to bushes (my Mum’s done that !!) and somehow politicians listen to them.

    My mum is pretty incoherent when she’s off with the fairies but believe it or not her arguments are a lot easier to accept then organised religion because everyone knows she is not rational so don’t expect her to make too much sense.

  21. [poroti

    Posted Friday, November 18, 2011 at 9:37 pm | Permalink

    jaundiced view

    It explains Emerson’s hilarious stuttering and Gillard’s silence as to her reasons. The explanation you saw postulated certainly fits.

    It was on the Contraians and they spoke as if the deal was common knowledge. My question is how and why would the religious nutters of the ACL have a squirrel grip on Labor on this issue? Most of the panel wondered why parliamentarians are behind community opinion on the issue. Way weird that a lefty atheist feminist would continue to expouse such views. Views I am certain JG does not hold.
    ]

    Peter Garratt is a Christian, and JG was raiosed a Baptist – perhaps she does hold to the traditional views on Marriage ?

  22. In fact a search reveals the Sky News story was reported by News Ltd two days ago:
    [Ms Gillard, who opposes same-sex marriage, said she believed her refusal to bring in a government bill for same-sex marriage would meet the undertaking not to change the Marriage Act she made to religious groups before the election in August last year.

    “I gave an undertaking at the time of the election that the government would not bring forward a legislative proposal, so I will acquit that undertaking,” she said.

    Australian Christian Lobby managing director Jim Wallace said the “huge part of the population that cares deeply about the definition of marriage” would hold Ms Gillard and the Labor Party to the promise “to vote against any changes in the term of the parliament”.]

  25. [Peter Garratt is a Christian, and JG was raiosed a Baptist – perhaps she does hold to the traditional views on Marriage ?]

    Exactly

    The Prime Minister is entitled to her views, even if I strongly disagree.

    But she’s noted that many in Labor have strong feelings on this matter and as a result there will be a free vote on it. The first Prime Minister in history to endorse their party having a free vote on it — pretty admirable that despite her views she will not silence her party like previous PMs have done on this matter.

  26. Twilight Zone indeed. Maybe Morrison is making a play for the banjo playing vote?

    singling out religion (with Sharia banking as the example) as the problem is dog whistling without the subtlety. He sounds like a 2GB caller in this speech, which may well be who is writing the Liberal policy these days.

    [Mr Morrison told the Federation of Ethnic Community Councils of Australia that freedom of religion, speech and thought were fundamental Australian values, along with the notion that ”English remains our one and only language”.

    “In our nation our first loyalty is always to Australia. We acknowledge, honour and respect our diverse heritage, but we prize above all what unites us as Australians, not what divides,” he said.

    The biggest challenge to Australian values was presented by religion, not race or ethnicity, Mr Morrison said.

    But he said he was unaware of any major mainstream religion that could not accommodate Australian values.

    While rejecting bans on any forms of religious dress, Mr Morrison said religious-based laws or banking practices, such as Sharia finance, had no place in Australia.

    “My point is that freedom of religion does not exist in a vacuum. All freedoms have limits, including in democracies,” he said.]

  27. Well, Abbott achieved his goal of getting the media focussed on him again by giving an extraordinarily bad parliamentary address to Obama.

  28. [Peter Garratt is a Christian, and JG was raiosed a Baptist – perhaps she does hold to the traditional views on Marriage ?]
    I would have thought true christians would be opposed to discrimination. And if it is her own religious belief that is driving her on this issue, why doesn’t she be honest and say so?
    Anyway, it appears from the article above on the promise to Jim Wallace to be the usual driving force – as with the mandatory filter in partnershgip with the ACL – the desire for christian votes.

  29. [Anyone know any details and why she should feel obliged to keep the pledge ?]

    Or is it down to its being Newspoll weekend and NoosLtd is desperately in need of a good antiGillard beat-up?

    BTW, note that the ACL @ http://www.acl.org.au/2010/11/acl-commends-pm-for-sticking-to-commitment-on-marriage/ references “Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s sticking to her election promise” to Prime Minister restates opposition to gay marriage; which, IMO, is drawing a bow long enough to be considered for an Agincourt Award nomination.

    On 19 August (last pre-election day gay marriage is mentioned on ACL) it cited Carol Nader (Age)

    [As Prime Minister Julia Gillard and Opposition Leader Tony Abbott continue to push the line that marriage should be between only a man and a woman, Greens leader Bob Brown told the National Press Club that ending marriage discrimination was one of the top priorities for the party when, most likely, it secures the balance of power in the Senate.]

    Doesn’t sound like “Julia Gillard’s sticking to her election promise” to me!

    I recall her saying she did not agree with gay marriages eg (30 June 2010) Gillard against gay marriage

    [Labor policy on gay marriage will remain the same under her prime ministership, Ms Gillard told Austereo show today.

    “We believe the marriage act is appropriate in its current form, that is recognising that marriage is between a man and a woman, but we have as a government taken steps to equalise treatment for gay couples,” Ms Gillard said.]

    a comment followed by opposing views inc Rodney Croome (Drum 7/10/2010) Gillard and the choice to marry (attracting 451 comments)

    [As one of those other Australians I can only hope our new Prime Minister comes to realise what a terrible injury she is inflicting, not least on the principles upon which she has founded her own personal life.]

    and Ruby Rose’s Twitter tirade against new Prime Minister Julia Gillard over her stance on gay marriage. But I can’t find any “election promise”.

  30. Frank
    Do you think News just made up the quotes from Gillard and Wallace and the rest of the factual material in the article?

  31. confessions

    Abbott and his rabble obviously believe this strategy is working for them. The longer they continue, the harder they fall, and fall they will

  32. [1080

    jaundiced view

    Posted Friday, November 18, 2011 at 9:50 pm | Permalink

    Frank
    Do you think News just made up the quotes from Gillard and Wallace and the rest of the factual material in the article?
    ]

    News Ltd and Facts are mutually exclusive concepts – as Ozpol Tragic has just illustrated.

    Keep digging that hole son, you might end up on the other side of the world by Monday at this rate.

  33. Frank Calabrese

    [Peter Garratt is a Christian, and JG was raiosed a Baptist – perhaps she does hold to the traditional views on Marriage ?]
    Possible, but the views are at odds with her earlier lefty views. Then again Wales has a rich history of pretty puritanical “we are not here for a good time” christianity.

  34. poroti

    my great granma was one fo those welshy types

    from what swmbo has discovered she was part of the founders of the welsh reformed church in perth

    sorta puritannical with an empathis on the individual finding their own path, rather than following a strict dogma

    from all accounts a rather bleak yet suprisingly free form of religion

  35. Frank
    How silly of me not to realise absolutely everything in News Ltd is complete fiction.

    Here is typical News reporting (from the same article) which I now realise contains the made up words of Gillard from a non-existent video of a fictional interview during which Ms Gillard did not direct any remarks to Jim Wallace:
    [In a video interview before the last election, Ms Gillard told Mr Wallace that: “We have determined as a Labor Party that the Marriage Act will stay unchanged” and “as leader of the parliamentary Labor Party, that’s obviously my policy and that’s what you should expect to see from a Gillard Labor government if we’re re-elected”. Ms Gillard also reassured the ACL that Labor would “absolutely” keep its policy from the previous ALP national conference in favour of the Marriage Act. “I was personally and directly involved in this policy and its development at the last national conference,” she said.]

  37. [And if it is her own religious belief that is driving her on this issue, why doesn’t she be honest and say so?]

    jv:

    Why not write to the PM and ask her? Post any reply here so we can all share in this knowledge. It seems counterproductive to continue indulging in circular, go-where suppositions about how individuals feel when it can all be resolved simply by asking them.

    If you’re on twitter the PM is quite responsive to tweets – she’s replying to questions put to her.

  38. I wonder if Mr Morrison has advised institutions like the NAB of his intention to stop Shariah finance. Will banks which operate shariah finance elsewhere in the world still be able to trade in Australia? What about existing arrangements? will they be rescinded along with everything else?

  39. jaundiced view

    [Frank
    How silly of me not to realise absolutely everything in News Ltd is complete fiction.

    Here is typical News reporting (from the same article) which I now realise contains the made up words of Gillard from a non-existent video of a fictional interview during which Ms Gillard did not direct any remarks to Jim Wallace]
    Yes, BUT, why should there be such obeisance to what in the Australia of today can only be described as a fringe group ?

  41. [Abbott and his rabble obviously believe this strategy is working for them. The longer they continue, the harder they fall, and fall they will]

    His minders have shown themselves most adept at controlling the media narrative. I suppose if that’s all you’ve got you’ll soon be shown up as shallow and full of spin but no substance.

    We just need the msm to wake up to this.

  43. [Slipper for Speaker. Harry for the backbench. He’s been in a safe Labor seat since 1986, and he should move on.]
    Good choice but the votes are too close and he wouldn’t get up.

  44. gusface @1086,

    spot on.

    Those having a go at the PM re a conscience vote on same sex marriage need to consider the following,

    If they believe the PM should push for caucus to vote as a bloc in favor of same sex marriage do they believe that caucus voting as a bloc in favor of the Malaysia agreement was the right thing to do or

    if they were hoping some members of caucus would stand up for their beliefs and cross the floor and vote against the Malaysia agreement do they agree with caucus being allowed a conscience vote on same sex marriage ?

    You cannot have it both ways.

  45. [Television personality Josh Byrne is considering running for the Australian Labor Party in the Western Australian state seat of Fremantle.]

    From the ABC online.

    Key word I suppose is ‘considering’.

  46. gusface
    The reason for the ‘conscience’ vote is to take the route most likely to ensure the failure of any private members’ bill; that is, the best way to wreck the move to remove discrimination coming from within and without the party.

    It is not to allow a ‘free’ vote. There is no such thing in the faction system. The catholic right and their allies pandering to the ACL know they control enough votes in the house so that, together with the LNP, a bill would fail. They already know the numbers fairly accurately, as they do for the National Conference. This is the way they see best to ‘keep the promise’ made to the ACL (and to the Catholic church, no doubt) on the issue.

  47. [1095

    confessions

    Posted Friday, November 18, 2011 at 10:14 pm | Permalink

    Television personality Josh Byrne is considering running for the Australian Labor Party in the Western Australian state seat of Fremantle.

    From the ABC online.

    Key word I suppose is ‘considering’.
    ]

    My ALP source says it’s confirmed : – )

  48. [The biggest challenge to Australian values was presented by religion, not race or ethnicity, Mr Morrison said.]
    OK, all Sinhalese are OK but beware those Sunnis fleeing from Syria!

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