Roy Morgan has published its latest face-to-face poll result on Thursday rather than the more usual Friday, and as usual the numbers require a fair degree of explanation. The headline figure of 56.5-43.5 looks like a shocker for Labor, given that this series normally leans in their favour. However, this turns out to be an artefact of Morgan favouring the respondent-allocated method of distributing minor party and independent preferences, and their odd tendency for these allocations to greatly favour the Coalition more than past election results and the respondent-allocated figures produced by Nielsen. When preferences are distributed as per the result of the previous election, which is the standard practice for all other pollsters, the result is well in line with other recent polling at 53.5-46.5. Since the previous face-to-face result a fortnight ago, both major parties are up half a point on the primary vote Labor to 34.5 per cent, the Coalition to 47 per cent with the Greens down two to 11.5 per cent. Labor has softened half a point on both two-party preferred measures. The poll combines results from Morgan’s last two regular weekend survey periods, accounting for a total sample of 1788.
While The West Quote The ABC:
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/11812540/byrne-could-run-for-fremantle-abc/
Frank:
Has Byrne confirmed he’s standing?
frank
u waz correct
well done ALP
a tres nuanced choice
Frank,
Why should a Perth paper not do WA politics?
[confessions
Posted Friday, November 18, 2011 at 10:21 pm | Permalink
Frank:
Has Byrne confirmed he’s standing?
]
My source is accurate.
Catch you in the morning, Bludgers.
[This little black duck
Posted Friday, November 18, 2011 at 10:22 pm | Permalink
Frank,
Why should a Perth paper not do WA politics?
]
Perth Now had the “Exclusive” The West don’t want to quote them.
Could Mr Morrison say what he thinks the impact on Australian values is from the 18% of us who follow no religion (2006 census)?
Doyley
You are creating a false dilemma. See 1096.
You surely don’t really believe in a ‘free’ vote under the Labor right factions? Those guys don’t even get to choose their own socks.
The starting and finishing point is good policy. On asylum seekers the leadership should have implemented the platform, because it was the right policy. On gay marriage, the leadership should not subvert the move for platform and legislative change to remove discrimination, agian because it is the right policy.
In the case of asylum seekers, the leadership repuduated the platform; on gay marriage the leadership is attempting to stop the platform requiring legislative change led by the party; and also to ensure a private members bill would be defeated.
The leadersghip is wrong on both counts.
Frank:
I suppose we’ll know for sure soon enough.
[Could Mr Morrison say what he thinks the impact on Australian values is from the 18% of us who follow no religion (2006 census)?]
Goshome
That’s obvious.
He would not recognise us.
Fess,
Fromn the Perth Now Article:
[Byrne told PerthNow that he was “seriously considering” entering politics.
“I have a long standing interest in politics and strong sense of involvement in the Fremantle community,” he said.
“This, combined with a determination to contribute towards positive change, means that a move into politics is something that I am seriously considering.
“As someone who works, lives and plays in Fremantle, this is the seat that I would contest.
“As a local Labor Party branch member, if I do decide to pursue it, I can confirm that it will be with the ALP.”
]
There is your Answer.
Good night BK.
Frank:
So he is a Labor member? That would make sense then that he’d stand for the ALP rather than the Greens, as someone suggested earlier.
Frank and any others who don’t believe Gillard made a promise to the ACL on gay marriage, (and also the internet filter) here is the video The Australian article linked earlier was referring to. It is quite sick-making:
http://vimeo.com/13959730
jv = just vanished.
Gillard just re-stated party policy. Quite sick making? Hardly. Depends on your point of view.
Has there been any confirmation of Abbott’s comments at the tourism event about only drinking NZ wines?
It’s one of those classic ‘gotchas’ the msm love, so if he did say such a thing I’d imagine it would be leaped on by our sideshow-loving journos.
Gary
It does depend on your point of view. Mine is – what on earth she doing there giving a private 28 minute obsequious interview with the boss of that creepy organisation?
Vic, i know nuttin’
[Has there been any confirmation of Abbott’s comments at the tourism event about only drinking NZ wines?]
At a guess I’d say the tweeter known as LNP Insider has been told about it from someone there, and is spreading it around. The other possibilty is that Insider gets tips from the Press on stuff before it goes out, so check tomorrow to see if something is written up on it. I presume the profile is an QLD ALP person or sympathiser anyway having a laugh.
[jv = just vanished.]
last was a fortasma morgana
You know the world’s changed when your former dirt poor colony offers financial help
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15790127
[18 November 2011 Last updated at 11:29 GMT
Angola’s Eduardo Dos Santos offers help to Portugal
Angola is prepared to help its former colonial power Portugal cope with its financial crisis, the oil-rich nation’s President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos said.
After meeting visiting Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho, he said solutions needed to be found.
They should be “advantageous for both countries” and “in a spirit of solidarity and mutual help”, he said.
Analysts say Portugal’s economy is expected to contract by 2.8% next year and Angola’s to grow by 12%. ]
More in the article
Leroy:
I’m also a bit suss on ‘LNPInsider’.
But that’s just me. 🙂
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-15786733
[18 November 2011 Last updated at 10:25 GMT
Philippines court issues Gloria Arroyo arrest warrant
A Philippine court has issued an arrest warrant for former President Gloria Arroyo, hours after election officials accused her of vote fraud.]
http://globalspin.blogs.time.com/2011/11/17/is-the-party-of-mexicos-old-dictatorship-poised-to-return-to-power/
[Is the Party of Mexico’s Old Dictatorship Poised to Return to Power?
Posted by Tim Padgett Thursday, November 17, 2011 at 5:05 pm]
When is USA returning to Africa? Isnt it a bit of negligence for the first African American POTUS to vacate Africa to Beijing?
[Beijing, Nov.18 (People’s Daily Online) –China has become Africa’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade growing 28 percent per year from 2001 to 2010, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said on Nov. 16.
China-Africa economic and trade relations have developed explosively in recent years, and their bilateral multi-level, multi-sector cooperation has been playing an irreplaceable role in the social and economic development of both sides.
An official from ministry said that China and African countries all belong to the developing world, and they share common experiences and development tasks. ]
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90778/7649195.html
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Come on Mary Jo, give us another hokey pokey #auspol
1 minute ago
“The biggest challenge to Australian values was presented by religion, not race or ethnicity, Mr Morrison said.”
Looks like Creepy is giving the dog whistle a good blow – this seems to be consistent with the leak that he argued strongly that the LNP should latch onto and play up anti-muslim sentiment. I see he also blew the ‘English language only’ dog whistle. What a charmer.
From the famous UK MP Tom Watson’s site, an exchange between him and a News Corp Journo chasing him for info. Good for a chuckle.
http://www.tom-watson.co.uk/2011/11/mildly-amusing-text-exchange-with-a-times-journalist/
daretotread@925,
I found Age/SMH’s t report about China by the said correspondent disappointingly uni-dimentional. The MO is a sensationalistic title followed by some of the author’s own rumination with limited evidence to back it up. As if to compensate, usually the author cites one or two “experts” (or nut-job in this case) without ever bothering to acknowledge alternative views exist. The author also frequently and illogically equates the opinions of these people with that of the position of the Chinese government. It often reads like the author first determined what he wanted to bash China about, then set out and looked for something vaguely resembling supportive evidence. I am not against criticising China, but this kind of criticism devoid of class and logic is not befitting of the newspaper which I hold in high regard.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/opinion/abbotts-sniping-tactics-are-on-the-nose/story-fn56baaq-1226199487555
[Abbott’s sniping tactics are on the nose
by: Laurie Oakes From: Herald Sun November 19, 2011 12:00AM]
Laurie pays out on his new least favourite person. An early post of tomorrow’s paper article.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/abbott-urges-wavering-bolt-to-fight-on-for-good-of-the-country-20111118-1nng0.html
[Abbott urges wavering Bolt to fight on ‘for good of the country’
John Van Tiggelen
November 19, 2011
CONSERVATIVE commentator Andrew Bolt considered stepping back from his multiple media commitments in the wake of being found guilty of racial vilification in the Federal Court, until Tony Abbott implored him not to.
In an interview with Good Weekend, published today, Bolt reveals that the court decision, and the gloating reaction from within some sections of the community, had shocked him deeply.
He said he had been painted as a monster and his family had suffered.
Advertisement: Story continues below
However, an impromptu visit to his home by the Opposition Leader, who told Bolt that the country needed him, had restored his resolve.]
More in the article
jv @1109,
Sorry, but I think it is you getting yourself in a knot. You are not being consistent.
To start with you say that the Malaysia agreement should not have been put forward because it is not labor party policy and the party policy should have been implemented. Labor party policy on AS was decided at national conference and voted on. You accept the outcome of national conference on that issue and therefore one must assume you believed it to be a fair and open vote. Why ? Because you agree with it.
However, same sex marriage is not labor party policy at this point in time. You are now saying that any vote at national conference which results in party policy remaining the same on this issue will not be a fair and open vote. Why ? Because you disagree with it.
You cannot accept national conference voting on one issue as fair and open and then reject national conference voting on another issue as not fair and open just because you do not agree with the outcome.
Secondly, if I remember correctly you were hoping some members of caucus would cross the floor and vote with their beliefs against the Malaysia agreement yet do not agree with the PM supporting a conscience vote on same sex marriage. Even if labor party policy remains the same on same sex marriage the PM is still supporting this conscience vote. Yet you do not agree with this.
Sorry, but I can only see inconsistency in yoir positions with the inconsistency resulting from your own personal viewpoint on the two issues.
I support your right to believe whatever you want on these and all other issues but you cannot support the process on one issue because you agree with the outcome and then oppose it on another issue because you don’t.
All national conference votes must be seen as fair and open or none are. You cannot pick one as ok and another not simply because ypu support one outcome and not another.
cheers.
[I presume the profile is an QLD ALP person or sympathiser anyway having a laugh.]
u presume wrong
Leroy
Greg Sheridan said on The Nation last night that Abbott quoting The Quiet American, was him being ironic! FFS!!
[LNP Insider@LNPInsider view full profile →
Brisbane QueenslandDevoted my life and career to the LNP but got jack of the stupidity, dirty games, hate and arrogance. You’ll see what I mean]
has come up with the good oil a few times
From reading the Age article about Bolt it does sound as if he’s on the nose.
[More in the article]
Thanks! Because Tony needs something else that’s gonna look bad… 😉
Seems a press conference going on now re Natalie Wood’s death all those years ago.
[todayshow TODAY
“I’ve been trying to get somebody to listen for a long time, now somebody is listening.” -Captain of boat where Natalie Wood drowned in 1981
7 minutes ago
todayshow TODAY
.@DavidGregory: “Was the fight between Natalie Wood and…Robert Wagner what ultimately led to her death?” Boat capt. Dennis Davern: “Yes.”
3 minutes ago ]
rishane:
Why is Abbott publicly siding with Bolt? Bolt’s TV and radio shows have no audience, and the former editor of the Daily Telegraph for goodness sakes has said he’s embarrassed Bolt is held up as a mouthpiece for News ltd.
The Unravellling.
confessions
If Bolt was supposedly popular, why does his show and his gig on MTR rate poorly? He has only had a voice to date because he has served a purpose for some including Abbott. How unsurprisement
[rishane:
Why is Abbott publicly siding with Bolt? Bolt’s TV and radio shows have no audience, and the former editor of the Daily Telegraph for goodness sakes has said he’s embarrassed Bolt is held up as a mouthpiece for News ltd.
The Unravellling.]
Yep! And it also signifies that Abbott has no intention of going even slightly more ‘moderate’ like some have suggested. Of course, what’s even more amusing about this is when Abbott loses the leadership, I seriously think there’s going to be an Abbott martyr myth developing among some of them, just like all the myths circulating about Rudd.
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
USA join Abbott Lynching Party: An American official was quoted as commenting: “Pettiness of the worst type” http://t.co/8Z2pGpPE #auspol
9 minutes ago
ALP are up 7 on the Primary Vote in Queensland accoring to the latest Galaxy.
Still awful on the 2pp: ALP 42, LNP 58
Gilard behind Rudd and Smith as preferred ALP leader in Queensland
http://www.couriermail.com.au/ipad/labor-party-rebounds-from-rock-bottom/story-fn6ck51p-1226199507810
victoria:
It feels kind of serendipitous that Abbott is beholden to media personalities like Bolt and the ranting shockjocks.
confessions
Abbott has been propped up by the likes of Bolt and the shockjocks. Of course he is beholden to them
spur212
I will take any improvement.
[I seriously think there’s going to be an Abbott martyr myth developing among some of them]
Just like there is with Howard! The 2007 election result was a mistake, the 2010 election result was treachery by O and W, voters just need to be reminded of how good it was under Howard and we can go back there, etc etc.
Bring it on.
[GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
#Galaxy Poll QLD Preferred PM: Gillard 37 (0) Abbott 51 (+1) #auspol]