Morgan face-to-face: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has published its latest face-to-face poll result on Thursday rather than the more usual Friday, and as usual the numbers require a fair degree of explanation. The headline figure of 56.5-43.5 looks like a shocker for Labor, given that this series normally leans in their favour. However, this turns out to be an artefact of Morgan favouring the respondent-allocated method of distributing minor party and independent preferences, and their odd tendency for these allocations to greatly favour the Coalition more than past election results and the respondent-allocated figures produced by Nielsen. When preferences are distributed as per the result of the previous election, which is the standard practice for all other pollsters, the result is well in line with other recent polling at 53.5-46.5. Since the previous face-to-face result a fortnight ago, both major parties are up half a point on the primary vote – Labor to 34.5 per cent, the Coalition to 47 per cent – with the Greens down two to 11.5 per cent. Labor has softened half a point on both two-party preferred measures. The poll combines results from Morgan’s last two regular weekend survey periods, accounting for a total sample of 1788.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,204 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

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  1. [This little black duck

    Posted Friday, November 18, 2011 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    Frank,

    Why should a Perth paper not do WA politics?
    ]

    Perth Now had the “Exclusive” The West don’t want to quote them.

  2. Doyley
    You are creating a false dilemma. See 1096.

    You surely don’t really believe in a ‘free’ vote under the Labor right factions? Those guys don’t even get to choose their own socks.

    The starting and finishing point is good policy. On asylum seekers the leadership should have implemented the platform, because it was the right policy. On gay marriage, the leadership should not subvert the move for platform and legislative change to remove discrimination, agian because it is the right policy.

    In the case of asylum seekers, the leadership repuduated the platform; on gay marriage the leadership is attempting to stop the platform requiring legislative change led by the party; and also to ensure a private members bill would be defeated.
    The leadersghip is wrong on both counts.

  3. [Could Mr Morrison say what he thinks the impact on Australian values is from the 18% of us who follow no religion (2006 census)?]
    Goshome
    That’s obvious.
    He would not recognise us.

  4. Fess,

    Fromn the Perth Now Article:

    [Byrne told PerthNow that he was “seriously considering” entering politics.

    “I have a long standing interest in politics and strong sense of involvement in the Fremantle community,” he said.

    “This, combined with a determination to contribute towards positive change, means that a move into politics is something that I am seriously considering.

    “As someone who works, lives and plays in Fremantle, this is the seat that I would contest.

    “As a local Labor Party branch member, if I do decide to pursue it, I can confirm that it will be with the ALP.”

    ]
    There is your Answer.

  5. Frank:

    So he is a Labor member? That would make sense then that he’d stand for the ALP rather than the Greens, as someone suggested earlier.

  6. Has there been any confirmation of Abbott’s comments at the tourism event about only drinking NZ wines?

    It’s one of those classic ‘gotchas’ the msm love, so if he did say such a thing I’d imagine it would be leaped on by our sideshow-loving journos.

  7. Gary
    It does depend on your point of view. Mine is – what on earth she doing there giving a private 28 minute obsequious interview with the boss of that creepy organisation?

  8. [Has there been any confirmation of Abbott’s comments at the tourism event about only drinking NZ wines?]

    At a guess I’d say the tweeter known as LNP Insider has been told about it from someone there, and is spreading it around. The other possibilty is that Insider gets tips from the Press on stuff before it goes out, so check tomorrow to see if something is written up on it. I presume the profile is an QLD ALP person or sympathiser anyway having a laugh.

  9. You know the world’s changed when your former dirt poor colony offers financial help

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-15790127

    [18 November 2011 Last updated at 11:29 GMT
    Angola’s Eduardo Dos Santos offers help to Portugal

    Angola is prepared to help its former colonial power Portugal cope with its financial crisis, the oil-rich nation’s President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos said.

    After meeting visiting Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho, he said solutions needed to be found.

    They should be “advantageous for both countries” and “in a spirit of solidarity and mutual help”, he said.

    Analysts say Portugal’s economy is expected to contract by 2.8% next year and Angola’s to grow by 12%. ]

    More in the article

  10. When is USA returning to Africa? Isnt it a bit of negligence for the first African American POTUS to vacate Africa to Beijing?

    [Beijing, Nov.18 (People’s Daily Online) –China has become Africa’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade growing 28 percent per year from 2001 to 2010, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce said on Nov. 16.

    China-Africa economic and trade relations have developed explosively in recent years, and their bilateral multi-level, multi-sector cooperation has been playing an irreplaceable role in the social and economic development of both sides.

    An official from ministry said that China and African countries all belong to the developing world, and they share common experiences and development tasks. ]

    http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90778/7649195.html

  11. “The biggest challenge to Australian values was presented by religion, not race or ethnicity, Mr Morrison said.”

    Looks like Creepy is giving the dog whistle a good blow – this seems to be consistent with the leak that he argued strongly that the LNP should latch onto and play up anti-muslim sentiment. I see he also blew the ‘English language only’ dog whistle. What a charmer.

  12. daretotread@925,

    I found Age/SMH’s t report about China by the said correspondent disappointingly uni-dimentional. The MO is a sensationalistic title followed by some of the author’s own rumination with limited evidence to back it up. As if to compensate, usually the author cites one or two “experts” (or nut-job in this case) without ever bothering to acknowledge alternative views exist. The author also frequently and illogically equates the opinions of these people with that of the position of the Chinese government. It often reads like the author first determined what he wanted to bash China about, then set out and looked for something vaguely resembling supportive evidence. I am not against criticising China, but this kind of criticism devoid of class and logic is not befitting of the newspaper which I hold in high regard.

  13. http://www.theage.com.au/national/abbott-urges-wavering-bolt-to-fight-on-for-good-of-the-country-20111118-1nng0.html

    [Abbott urges wavering Bolt to fight on ‘for good of the country’
    John Van Tiggelen
    November 19, 2011

    CONSERVATIVE commentator Andrew Bolt considered stepping back from his multiple media commitments in the wake of being found guilty of racial vilification in the Federal Court, until Tony Abbott implored him not to.

    In an interview with Good Weekend, published today, Bolt reveals that the court decision, and the gloating reaction from within some sections of the community, had shocked him deeply.

    He said he had been painted as a monster and his family had suffered.
    Advertisement: Story continues below

    However, an impromptu visit to his home by the Opposition Leader, who told Bolt that the country needed him, had restored his resolve.]

    More in the article

  14. jv @1109,

    Sorry, but I think it is you getting yourself in a knot. You are not being consistent.

    To start with you say that the Malaysia agreement should not have been put forward because it is not labor party policy and the party policy should have been implemented. Labor party policy on AS was decided at national conference and voted on. You accept the outcome of national conference on that issue and therefore one must assume you believed it to be a fair and open vote. Why ? Because you agree with it.

    However, same sex marriage is not labor party policy at this point in time. You are now saying that any vote at national conference which results in party policy remaining the same on this issue will not be a fair and open vote. Why ? Because you disagree with it.

    You cannot accept national conference voting on one issue as fair and open and then reject national conference voting on another issue as not fair and open just because you do not agree with the outcome.

    Secondly, if I remember correctly you were hoping some members of caucus would cross the floor and vote with their beliefs against the Malaysia agreement yet do not agree with the PM supporting a conscience vote on same sex marriage. Even if labor party policy remains the same on same sex marriage the PM is still supporting this conscience vote. Yet you do not agree with this.

    Sorry, but I can only see inconsistency in yoir positions with the inconsistency resulting from your own personal viewpoint on the two issues.

    I support your right to believe whatever you want on these and all other issues but you cannot support the process on one issue because you agree with the outcome and then oppose it on another issue because you don’t.

    All national conference votes must be seen as fair and open or none are. You cannot pick one as ok and another not simply because ypu support one outcome and not another.

    cheers.

  15. [LNP Insider@LNPInsider view full profile →
    Brisbane QueenslandDevoted my life and career to the LNP but got jack of the stupidity, dirty games, hate and arrogance. You’ll see what I mean]

    has come up with the good oil a few times

  16. Seems a press conference going on now re Natalie Wood’s death all those years ago.

    [todayshow TODAY
    “I’ve been trying to get somebody to listen for a long time, now somebody is listening.” -Captain of boat where Natalie Wood drowned in 1981
    7 minutes ago

    todayshow TODAY
    .@DavidGregory: “Was the fight between Natalie Wood and…Robert Wagner what ultimately led to her death?” Boat capt. Dennis Davern: “Yes.”
    3 minutes ago ]

  17. rishane:

    Why is Abbott publicly siding with Bolt? Bolt’s TV and radio shows have no audience, and the former editor of the Daily Telegraph for goodness sakes has said he’s embarrassed Bolt is held up as a mouthpiece for News ltd.

    The Unravellling.

  18. confessions

    If Bolt was supposedly popular, why does his show and his gig on MTR rate poorly? He has only had a voice to date because he has served a purpose for some including Abbott. How unsurprisement

  19. [rishane:

    Why is Abbott publicly siding with Bolt? Bolt’s TV and radio shows have no audience, and the former editor of the Daily Telegraph for goodness sakes has said he’s embarrassed Bolt is held up as a mouthpiece for News ltd.

    The Unravellling.]

    Yep! And it also signifies that Abbott has no intention of going even slightly more ‘moderate’ like some have suggested. Of course, what’s even more amusing about this is when Abbott loses the leadership, I seriously think there’s going to be an Abbott martyr myth developing among some of them, just like all the myths circulating about Rudd.

  20. [I seriously think there’s going to be an Abbott martyr myth developing among some of them]

    Just like there is with Howard! The 2007 election result was a mistake, the 2010 election result was treachery by O and W, voters just need to be reminded of how good it was under Howard and we can go back there, etc etc.

    Bring it on.

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