Monday preselection snippets

Another post to keep the threads brief pending re-establishment of paged comments. Essential Research will as always reports its latest poll result today, but it’s an off week for Newspoll.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports on yet another figure of the Howard years being mooted for a comeback: Jim Lloyd, who lost Robertson to Belinda Neal in 2007. The report says the Liberals have used automated phone polling locally to test the name recognition of Lloyd, current Labor member Deb O’Neill and the Liberals’ unsuccessful 2010 candidate, Darren Jameson. It also quotes Peter Reith’s post-election review criticising the party’s failure to encourage Lloyd to run last time, which “caused disaffection in a number of the branches”. Lloyd is now 57 and “has worked as a tour bus driver and for a local marine research firm” since his exit from parliament.

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian (again) reports the NSW Liberals’ decision to deal promptly with preselections for 16 seats it currently holds is likely to bolster Mitchell MP Alex Hawke in a preselection challenge from his foes in the David Clarke Right sub-faction. The report speaks of “vigorous recruitment in Mitchell by Mr Hawke’s enemies, but the opening of nominations means members who have joined in the past nine months will not be eligible to participate”. It also says Philip Ruddock is unlikely to be challenged if he seeks another term in Berowra, despite long-term jockeying in the seat by the David Clarke Right faction. The likely candidate to succeed Ruddock is said to be political staffer Noel McCoy, but he has ruled out nominating against Ruddock.

• Usman Azad of the Kalgoorlie Miner reports the WA Liberals have “set a $500,000 target for a war chest to topple O’Connor MP Tony Crook, with most of the funds destined to build name recognition for his challenger Rick Wilson”. The party reportedly believes television advertising funded by Clive Palmer was responsibile for the Nationals’ win in 2010 at the expense of Liberal veteran Wilson Tuckey, and is determined not to be outdone again.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

217 comments on “Monday preselection snippets”

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  1. BB

    [Hartcher has written himself out of the pages of decency and back onto the low road of hackery.]

    Hartcher has been on the low road afore ye, BB, and follows the well worn path tramped flat by other kneejerk MSM hacks. No matter what the spurious ‘test’ dreamt up by these professional Gillard-Haters (Shanahan being the prime exemplar of this serial ‘test = Gillard is a dud’ nonsense) the PM has already failed, as there is no point in writing their florid and overblown articles if it has to be conceded that, Dawkins Forbid, PM Gillard, or the Government, has actually done something right, as is the case here.

    Hartcher is not, and has never been anything except a less rabid, but still card carrying member of the ‘ALP = Bad’ school of hack journalism.

  2. [Misha Schubert
    @mishaschubert
    Alan Joyce says #qantas grounded fleet instead of asking FWA to help bc union action alone would not have met test of damage to economy.]

    [Misha Schubert
    @mishaschubert
    The import of that is it implies that any govt application for FWA to intervene would also have failed before #qantas grounded the fleet.]

  3. [@mishaschubert
    The import of that is it implies that any govt application for FWA to intervene would also have failed before #qantas grounded the fleet.]
    vic
    That is a very telling point.

  5. Thanks Victoria

    The other import of this is that Qantas management deliberately took an action that it knew would damage the Australian economy, while knowing that the union was not damaging it.

  9. Greensborough Growler

    [LIBERAL MPs say they were told to rally around former parliamentary secretary Bill Tilley because he had “taken one for the team” over the alleged conspiracy against Simon Overland.]

    Which means the rightful target of the “bent bastard conspiracy bullet” taken by Tilley is still there waiting to be rooted out. As John Howard was meant to have said “Standards will always be lower under a Liberal government”.

  13. [….. Qantas management deliberately took an action that it knew would damage the Australian economy,….]

    Tony is their role model.

  14. [11 million QAN sold. Now up 7 cents.]
    That is a tiny movement in the scheme of things.

    It would be very interesting to find out who is buying and selling the shares and why? Qantas should have been damaged by this. Why isn’t the price falling? Who is buying at a higher price? What do they know?

  16. [sspencer_63 Stephen Spencer
    Now appearing as though Joyce timed the Qantas shut down to cause maximum damage to the Gillard Govt. Says he knew PM was tied up in CHOGM.]

  17. [vote1maxine

    Posted Monday, October 31, 2011 at 9:58 am | Permalink

    mari

    Being left handed and being left leaning politically has a nice positive harmonious vibe.]
    THANK YOU I have never thought of that before, I was the only lefthander in my family and probably the most leftwing one as well. But have passed on my genes politically to my children not the lefthandness though, BUT a couple of grandkids are lefties
    My Say (81) Just click on the link and it will open

  19. yay numbers and pages back!

    @Confessions/110,

    They don’t have any policies, except perhaps IR.

    That’s why they failed so badly on their Broadband policy (and still have).

  20. silentmajority
    Posted Monday, October 31, 2011 at 8:39 am | Permalink

    [What seems to be missing in all of this is that Qantas is/was a strategic asset. One that we may need in the event of a conflict. ]
    I have made that point several times over recent days.

    I am ex-RAAF and Qantas was seen as a reserve in times of need and IIRC it also was contracted to do some of the heavier maintenance for the RAAF and it’s maintenance procedures were closely aligned with those of the RAAF.

    In fact we used to sometimes jokingly refer to it as RAAF-Qantas!

  21. [114
    Socrates

    11 million QAN sold. Now up 7 cents.

    That is a tiny movement in the scheme of things.

    It would be very interesting to find out who is buying and selling the shares and why? Qantas should have been damaged by this. Why isn’t the price falling? Who is buying at a higher price? What do they know?]

    Qantas is in a really tough industry – one in which profits are scarce, capital demands are huge and where many of the factors that determine success/failure are outside the scope of control of any individual operator. The one thing an airline can hope to do – at least in principle – is manage its workforce. This decision may help Qantas to do that. Equally, it may not. Some punters are obviously supposing Qantas will eventually get on the right side of its costs and others are buying just because others are buying too. The thing is, Qantas would have to at least quintuple its profits before you could say they were making profits commensurate with the risks they face. Too tough, aviation, just too tough. Best avoided.

    Good win for the Government though, I think. The system worked.

  23. If FWA does arbitrate this dispute it will, presumably, want to look at the books of Qantas and the unions will get a chance to identify any cross-subsidisation of Jetstar, etc etc.

  24. The “West”, in its editorial today – read by about 10 people I suppose – takes on the ‘National Interest’ line.

    It could not resist however, adding to the, “It could have been fixed by the government beforehand” line to somehow sheet whatever blame there was, down to the government.

    The PM’s name is AWOL so neither blame nor praise from this conservative mouthpiece.

    Great to see the numbers back and have enjoyed the shorter threads.

  25. Didn’t Warren Buffett say that the easiest way to become a millionaire was to start out as a billionaire and buy an airline.

    In todays AFR, Alan Mitchell writes:

    [“Qantas … has been heavily protected by the federal government’s refusal to open its domestic and bilaterally regulated international markets to the full blast of global competition. The Qantas dispute with its unions is, to a large extent, about unwinding excessive operating costs that have been built up behind that protection.”]

    OK, OK. I understand all that. But if the costs are unwound, the protection will be too. In which case, Qantas will just be another loss-making international airline without even a govt to protect it. So how is that in Qantas’ long term interests? I suppose Qantas thinks it will be able to pay its staff a lot less while, at the same time, keeping the protection. Be surprised about that.

  26. [swearycatSweary Cat

    Abbott: “Under my prime ministership this would never happen because workers under my watch will never have rights]
    Think this tweet sums it up!

  27. A couple of clever little contributions in the Age this morning

    1. Qantas – the lying kangaroo.

    2. What do Melbourne Cup Day and Qantas have in common – they both stop a nation.

  28. rosa, I think the point is that in the domestic market, which is where Qantas has a chance to make money, it is at a competitive disadvantage to other carriers, including its own Jetstar, which is gradually cannibalizing Qantas. In the international market, Qantas has almost no hope of making money. If they cannot get into the black, they should close their international routes. They would not be missed.

  29. [@mishaschubert
    The import of that is it implies that any govt application for FWA to intervene would also have failed before #qantas grounded the fleet.]

    Exactly, BK – the salient point which the PM was making to Fran Kelly this morning and to AM. At least Mischa Schubert gets it.

    I thought the PM said on AM that Alan Joyce was going to explain the DT’s story about her lack of involvement in Saturday’s events. She said he would be doing so during the day. He said nothing about it while I listened to his presser but I got fed up with his apologies so switched off. Did he, in fact, correct that story?

  30. BH,

    Joyce was interviewed by Fran Kelly this morning and several times said the comment was inaccurate and misreported.

  36. [ Misha Schubert
    @mishaschubert
    Alan Joyce says #qantas grounded fleet instead of asking FWA to help bc union action alone would not have met test of damage to economy.

    Misha Schubert
    @mishaschubert
    The import of that is it implies that any govt application for FWA to intervene would also have failed before #qantas grounded the fleet.]

    This is Joyce admitting that he deliberately set out to cause damage to the economy in order to get his way for private shareholders.

    If ever there was a more egregious abuse of corporate muscle, I can’t remember it, except perhaps Patricks.

    This sets the scene for big miners to do exactly the same. Ditto for Big Electricity. Not to mention the other airlines.

    Thanks God the NBN will be in government hands. Qantas should be back as a national enterprise, as well.

    eanwhile, Hadley (rather predictably) has been going the biff against the unions. He had Tony Sheldon on and gave him a pretty aggressive going over. All the usual Hadley tactics: shouting over the top of him, accusing him of being in lockstep with Gillard, or being bitter, of being emotional against “a good bloke like Alan Joyce, who certainly doesn’t deserve any of this.”

    Sheldon maintained his cool and reason, dealing with Hadley’s machine-gun points one-by-one.

    Of course, after the interview, Hadley’s apostles rang in one by one – the complete set… The Tradie, The Pensioner, The Plummy Voiced Lady From The North Shore, The Lebanese Guy Who Reckons Ray Is King (round up the usual suspects) – to tell Ray that he had wiped the floor with that “communist”, “socialist”, “Labor Party grub,” etc.

    Main topics were that Australian workers should allow themselves and their wages to be reduced to Asian levels, because (as we all know) that’s where the future is and we should keep up with history (which is that Australia is, and should be, a big mine and nothing more).

    Also noted was that Gillard had said s.431 “had never been used in history” and that she wasn’t about to break the record. Hadley mocked this by saying that s.431 was only introduced in 2009 and that “in history” therefore meant little. He was ignorant of the fact that this provision has been in various Acts since 1994. Keating didn’t use it, neither did Howard or Rudd (Howard especially, even in the Wharfies Lockout).

    Naturally it all came down to it being Gillard’s fault. She was busy “hob-nobbing” with CHOGM leaders while “this country went to rack and ruin”. All she had to do (as also said in the DT this morning) was jump when Joyce said jump, act when Joyce said act and terminate the dispute when Joyce said terminate. Utterly no mention of the fact that a strike involving the wearing of red ties, polite announcements over the aircraft tannoy and a total of 8 hours stoppages in no way qualifies as “a national emergency”. Oh and yes, it was Gillard’s law, so she was entirely to blame for it and any ramifications, including the actions of others, under it.

    As predictable as clockwork.

    Don’t like having to say this (as it’s sort of ad hominem) but Joyce’s Bog Irish brogue, his dorky looks and his $2 million pay rise, his embarassment of our country in the face of foreign leaders, and in general the act of bastardry he initiated in shutting down the airline and stranding passengers worldwide – many of them without compensation – just so he could artificially bring on a national crisis – as he has apparently admitted – will FAR outweigh quibbles about who wrote the FWA law and just who rang whom last Saturday afternoon.

    His actions have ramifications that will jump the Qantas fence and begin to infect other industrial paddocks. Off the top of my head I’d say the miners certainly, the electrical generators possibly and other industries like telecommunications, food production, plus other sectors of transport will all be poring over their cash in hand to see whether they can afford to shut their own businesses down for a week or so (or even a day or so) to get the same results.

    The law clearly needs amending so that corporations have the same notification and performance obligations as unions, and I think Gillard could get this through in a canter with the non-Coalition side of parliament in its present mood.

  37. [ShockJockCoachFake Coaching

    by latingle

    Julia could personally disarm hijackers & land the plane & the listeners would complain she delayed the food service ]
    also liked this tweet as obviously Laura Tingle did
    Is that right Confessions(135) Joe Hildebrand has been copping it on Twitter, couldn’t happen to a better guy

  38. BRIEFLY – Presently, international carriers are not allowed to compete on domestic routes. Why should they continue to be excluded? Further, if Qantas shuts down all its international routes, there won’t be much left except a low-cost domestic carrier in a ferociously competitive market. How long will Qantas / Jetstar survive in that environment? Where are the big profits in that?

  39. confessions

    [And apparently Joe Hildebrand has turned off his tweet stream, which suggests he was copping it on twitter for that article.]
    When I see Joe Hildebrand on tv one word always comes to mind. Backpfeifengesicht.

  41. Thanks GG – I missed Joyce with Fran. Had to take the dog for a walk which the dog considered far more important than me listening to the radio.

  44. Bushfire Bill

    [I have always said that Assange is extremely right wing. The only governments that Wikileaks has damaged have been left wing ones, and Murdoch is his hero.

    QED.]
    I wished I had read your opinion about Assange before. A leftish opinion site I visit on occasion has been banging on from day one that Assange is an out there right winger. I thought they were being a bit paranoid and took little notice as they sometimes tend to see a Rudd behind every bush as it were. But if PB’s BB has come to the same conclusion I’ll look at those claims a little closer.

  46. No amount of spin from the RW shock jocks can alter the fact that it was the decision by Qantas management which saw 140 odd planes grounded and so-say, depending on the source, 60,000 to 80,000 passengers stranded.

    They can seek to “blame” who they like, but at the end of the day, apart from the toxic Julia haters, for who me know make the PM responsible for everything that so say does not work, most balanced observers know that this was a deliberate and provocative act.

    The cynicism of the act and the words which followed, would do the most rank politician proud.

    As someone who prefers to fly on Qantas – nothing like seeing that big white kangaroo on the tail in places far removed from home – I fear the airline – as it is currently organised – will soon be history. Sure, the “name” might still live, but any company which is happy to just ditch its customers shows that however much is says it values us, has proved otherwise.

    I fear the name Qantas if it actually continues to exist will be a mere shell, or worse it will join the likes of PanAm and others as an historical icon.

  47. poroti – Assange is a Libertarian, they sometimes see themselves as beyond left & right. But he is no friend of the centre left. I think his left wing supporters have seen him as against the USA, so therefore as one of them, without delving into his beliefs.

    What left wing site are you referring to BTW?

  48. Thanks, my say.

    [Bird pictures the type u describe, I love to embroider same, with hand made and dyed aust wool and silk]

    OT. How wonderful. I love good embroidery.

    All but one of my bird pictures are Chinese on silk; a lyrically beautiful Yongzheng (c1735) embroidered white bed hanging of a couple of greyish birds playing in a blooming red/pink tree-peony. Typical of the era: minimalist, muted “white space”, exquisite stitching. Most people think it’s a painting. Cost US$26 in Changsha: water stained, with a grey fold-mark & some small stitching gaps; no one Chinese would buy it. Back home, I had to save up to pay for conservation cleaning, stitching, framing etc (A$420 in 1988). Exquisite paper-thin porcelain of the era is similarly decorated. I’d dearly love a bowl (they can keep their blue & white Ming); but I’d have to hock half the house to buy one.

    I’ve a pair of what I think are Q goldfields Chinese embroidery (needs conservation): a male & female HaHa bird/ phoenix in another orangy-red Tree-Peony on silk organza – prob c1900. Stitching isn’t as fine, but they’re still exquisite (Trash & Treasure mart), and a pair of painted-on-silk Birds-of-Paradise with calligraphy (ditto). Pre ebay, local T&T marts & OpShops were great treasure troves as GenXers sold off great/grandma’s treasurers for a song.

    My only birds on English china are on Coalport c1820, I think they’re chaffinches. Hand-painted ornithological china is next to shells as the most expensive of E china’s Golden Age. I collected landscapes, mainly on lay-by (3rd best) Botanicals ditto (4th) and floral posies (good ones are 5th, so affordable). Most of the best-decorated china was ordered through London China Dealers, esp Baxter, whose son Tom (landscapes, cathedrals- mine’s a too well used Coalport of Hereford Cath) trained by artist Fuseli, was one of Turner’s closest friends. WT painted for Baxter before being “discovered”; so buy a Derby/ Coalport/ Chamberlain-Worcester landscape you might be buying a real Turner (most high-end art was signed, but to look like decoration, so hard to decipher). No, I haven’t found one yet. Bugger.

  50. Leroy, Poroti

    Left right should not matter when it comes to free speech – this is very hard for lefties to grasp but free speech applies to fascists as well as communists, Catholics and Wiccans, peoples revolutionaries and monarchists.

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