Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

The latest weekly Essential Research result has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady on 55-45, although the primary votes suggest Labor would have come very close to gaining a point: their primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, their best result since June, with the Coalition down one to 47 per cent and the Greens down one to 10 per cent. Of the supplementary questions, the most interesting for mine relates to the “Occupy” protests, as they allow for comparison with Essential’s polling on the Convoy of No Confidence in late August. That poll had 40 per cent agreeing the convoy protests represented their views against 38 per cent who disagreed, which was more favourable than I might have expected. However, the current poll has fully 69 per cent expressing agreement with the concerns of the Occupy protesters, even if only 29 per cent support the protests as such. Opinion on their removal is evenly divided.

Other questions have 28 per cent believing the current government favours businesses and 41 per cent believe it favours workers, with respective figures of 61 per cent and 8 per cent for the opposition; 50 per cent supporting greater restriction of coal seam gas mining on farm land; and a ten-point drop since April in the number believing poker machines need more regulation to 52 per cent, with no clear pattern evident for other types of gambling.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,854 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  1. Mod Lib

    [so it will be “Oh well, fine, lets make it Romney then if we can’t have anyone else!”]
    That is pretty much on the mark I suspect.Then it comes back to the ewwww a Mormon issue.

  2. [ Roy Orbison
    Posted Friday, November 4, 2011 at 6:37 pm | Permalink
    Abbott has got every single vote he is going to get from the extreme right. He now has to stop the bleeding towards the centre and he can do this by adopting some more appealing policies or by simply not saying “No” so often. There isn’t much that actually needs to be done to stop the march to 50/50. The occasional ratbag right wing vote will be lost but that vote won’t go to Labor so the reality is he is in quite a good position. One can see the golden run he has been getting from the media by running the perverse campaign that he has. When he starts becoming more reasonable, imagine what the columnists and punters will be thinking. The only problem is is his ego. Does he have it in him to give some ground and soften his opposition to programmes such as the NBN? Unfortunately for Labor, I think he does.]

    I don’t.

    He’s a one trick pony – always has been.

    I remember the bloke at AUS conventions in the mid-70’s. He was the same one trick pony then: Said his bit, stirred the pot and always, always, left it at that.

    He’s incapable of compromise and always has been. Gays are sick and need treatment. Lefties, a threat to civil society. And as for Feminists, well, all they need is a good r*ot.

    All Vintage Tones, from 1975. What a wanker.

    Is anyone seroiusly suggesting the bloke has changed?

  3. [Even better news is that Cain is winning the GOP polls (and is a schmuch with little chance) so I will be in 7th heaven if he actually wins the nomination rather than Mitt]

    I’m still hoping for Michelle Bachmann with Sarah Palin as running mate. (no chance I know). Obama would just about win every state by the length of the straight.

  4. [Jetstar says it has cancelled six flights as a precautionary measure.]

    Jetstar always cancels flights, normally cause they are not full. This is why any travel agent not on the QANTAS pay for fly scheme recommends anyone but Jetstar.

  5. I don’t think Stephen Fry is doing much harm to Qantas judging by his tweets,
    – and apologies for long post, he loves to tweet does Fry.

    [stephenfry Stephen Fry
    Reunited with wallet & cards so v relieved ! Hurrah. Qantas have gone to the trouble & expense of this: which is nice pic.twitter.com/3sStwLfV
    2 hours ago

    stephenfry Stephen Fry
    Well, SMH, not so much “upset” as bloody furious. But with myself for leaving so hurriedly I forgot my wallet: me=twat m.smh.com.au/travel/travel-…
    3 hours ago

    stephenfry Stephen Fry
    It’s at times like this a man considers taking up smoking again. Possibly with heroin, crack and MDMA mixed in & all washed down with vodka
    4 hours ago

    stephenfry Stephen Fry
    That’s it. I’m fucked. Seriously fucked.
    4 hours ago

    stephenfry Stephen Fry
    @
    @abcnews and I’ve left my wallet on the plane – all my ID cards, money passes etc. I’m going to be siting here for ever and ever and ever
    4 hours ago

    stephenfry Stephen Fry
    Oh Jesus arsemothering fuck. I’ve left my wallet on the sodding plane. Hell’s teeth this really isn’t my day. Will not leave without it.
    5 hours ago

    stephenfry Stephen Fry
    On a bus from the plane to the terminal now. Who knows what treats lie in store? #qantas
    5 hours ago

    stephenfry Stephen Fry
    @
    @StevieCummings Exceptionally true x
    5 hours ago

    stephenfry Stephen Fry
    @
    @abcnews24 I should in all conscience add that staff are being wonderful & that morale is high and the passengers understanding & cheerful
    5 hours ago

    stephenfry Stephen Fry
    @
    @abcnews24 So either Sydney send another one out or they come to an accommodation with Emirates. Either way not a great week for #qantas !
    5 hours ago

    stephenfry Stephen Fry
    @
    @abcnews24 I think plan is to bus us to the transit lounge and await International Rescue. This plane, the crew tell me, is going nowhere
    5 hours ago

    stephenfry Stephen Fry
    @
    @abcnews24 We’re just stuck on the Tarmac: have been for an hour or so. Give my Liverpool Tony Jones – enjoyed the Lateline chat.
    5 hours ago

    stephenfry Stephen Fry
    Still stuck on Dubai tarmac. No one seems to know how long we’ll be here. Should’ve landed in London at 6:20. That won’t happen! #qantas
    5 hours ago

    stephenfry Stephen Fry
    Hm – I’m sure we’ll
    6 hours ago

    stephenfry Stephen Fry
    @
    @oh_rhomson It sure is!
    6 hours ago

    stephenfry Stephen Fry
    My flight. Still on board. Not sure of we’ll be bussed to the airport lounges or kept aboard while they work on it bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
    6 hours ago

    stephenfry Stephen Fry
    Bugger. Forced to land in Dubai. An engine has decided not to play]

  6. [ Frank Calabrese
    Posted Friday, November 4, 2011 at 7:19 pm | Permalink
    HOWEVER, before anybody dances with joy, I would treat it like a rogue because all the predicted talking points have a lot of validity. One poll is not gonna change anything but if it’s consistent with the trend then it is good news because it will motivate a lot of people in the ALP again, as they will start believing they genuinely can win the next election.

    One Word – QANTAS…..

    That is all.]

    I’m with you on this Frank.

    I don’t think it has sunk in with the MSM yet just how pissed-off people were with Joyce and Qantas. Or with the Libs’ failure to make any negative comment whatsoever with the mongrel-act of stranding seventy-thousand people without any warning whatsoever.

    Perhaps scales are starting to fall from eyes all across this country.

  7. lizzie,

    The action starts around 10. A bit earlier if the alcohol takes over. Bit like the parties in our youth.

  8. Really, if they put on Ms Wirth every time Qantas had a problem, I might pray for a few more engine failures.

  9. smithe, i smell a rat when populist Abbott doesnt sniff the wind (in this case anti-QANTAS) and take the prevailing view. I think its because he knew about what was planned, and is worried that he’ll be outed by QANTAS if he criticises them

  10. [Julia is the one banga ranga Silvio cannot banga ranga.]

    BB, as Gina Lollobrigida might have said: “What happens in Cannes, stays in Cannes.”

  11. PvO on the Rudd popularity stuff: “Anyone who’s met both Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard would be staggered to learn he’s more popular than she is.”

    And Troy Bramston is doing his best to boost Rudd and diss the PM, saying she promised to fix all these issues, and they haven’t been fixed.

    WTF?

  12. PvO to Bramston on hearing his extraordinary anti-Gillard tirade: “Have you been promised a job if he gets back, or something?’

  13. [HAD Qantas maintained its aircraft engines in Australia, engineers might have noticed an oil leak which led to a engine explosion on an A380 airliner over Indonesia a year ago, a parliamentary inquiry has heard.

    The federal secretary of the Australian Licenced Aircraft Engineers Association (ALAEA), Stephen Purvinas, said it made a big difference to have engines maintained in Australia.]

    A year ago. 🙂

  14. WOW. Just watched the ABC News (rare for me – kids, cooking etc, don’t get to watch much telly – get all my news from this site, AFR and SMH/Age. But saw the PM kissing Obama (twice) and then Silvio checking out our PM. What a hoot. If that gets coverage her vote will go up. No doubt.

    What a lovely end to the week with the Morgan poll. I know, I know – large MOE and it is Morgan after all. But hey, beggars can’t be too fussy.

    Reading the posts here made me reflect that this Qantas dispute has I think sent a message that Labor is FOR the people – that is working people. Labor will always look after the interests of the many against the few. Its the Vibe. It’s the History of the ALP. It is why I have, after 50 years, submitted my application to join the ALP.

    I have had a couple of beers so please forgive me for ranting. But tonight, I feel like a True Believer.

    I hope the above is not too schmaltzy. Apologies if it is.

  15. victoria:

    Bramston is sounding like Richo tonight.

    Gillard has done nothing BUT try to repair the loose ends from the Rudd era. As PvO pointed out, she will get the carbon pricing scheme through the Parliament when Rudd couldn’t, and is highly likely to resolve the mining tax recommendation from the Henry Review.

  16. smithe
    Posted Friday, November 4, 2011 at 8:17 pm | Permalink

    I don’t think it has sunk in with the MSM yet just how pissed-off people were with Joyce and Qantas.

    I think its more they go in to bat for Qantas who are huge buyers of advertising across the media and in a position to dole out favours, upgrades etc to those it deems *worthy*.

    Qantas have favours to pull in and will do so. The media are *partners* with the media with whom they place ads.

    The media have huge conflicts of interest here, but seriously who is going to hold them accountable?

    The other bit is the media truly believe they can get people to believe what they say.

    Will it work. I don’t know. Its a work in progress.

  17. [smithe, i smell a rat when populist Abbott doesnt sniff the wind (in this case anti-QANTAS) and take the prevailing view. I think its because he knew about what was planned, and is worried that he’ll be outed by QANTAS if he criticises them]

    Andrew, I am sure he is up to his budgie covered bollocks in the Qantas affair. It has all the smell of the Waterfront dispute.

  18. Lynchpin:

    Troy Bramston is Kevin Rudd’s former speechwriter.

    Why his commentary is extraordinary to me is that this is the first time I’ve heard him on Sky (he’s a regular panelist) dissing the Gillard govt and Labor.

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