Sunday polling snippets

In my continuing quest to keep the posts ticking over until the paged comments problem is fixed, some polling nuggets that had previously escaped mention:

• Dennis Shanahan of The Australian reports on Essential Research polling on what ails Labor, which was conducted for Troy Bramston’s newly released book Looking for the Light on the Hill. The poll has only 12 per cent believing the party was “clear about its goals and objectives”, with only one in three party supporters believing the party had clear goals and principles. The Coalition was rated equal to Labor or better on “the values of sharing economic prosperity; social justice, fairness and compassion; security defence and active foreign policy; and extending opportunities. On the issue of environmental sustainability, Labor scores behind both the Greens and the Coalition with a vote of just 22 per cent among ALP voters.”

• The Nielsen poll a fortnight ago came with questions on mandatory pre-commitment for poker machines and the carbon tax which I had previously neglected to mention. A telling gap in acceptance of the poker machine reforms was evident between Victoria, where 70 per cent were supportive, and New South Wales, where it was only 52 per cent. Nationally it had 61 per cent support (down five on April) and 34 per cent opposition (up five). The policy was more favoured by women (65 per cent to 58 per cent) and young people (72 per cent of 18-24, 53 per cent of 55+).

• Andrew Crook of Crikey has been told of Labor internal polling suggesting Labor would easily recover Melbourne from Adam Bandt and the Greens if the Liberals put them last on preferences, as they did at the state election. Said to have been conducted by UMR Research from a sample of 400, the poll had Labor’s primary vote steady since the election at 38 per cent, the Greens down three to 33 per cent and Liberals up four to 25 per cent, which would translate into a 58-42 win for Labor or a 54-46 win for the Greens depending on what the Liberals did with their preferences (80 per cent of which went to the Greens at the federal election, compared with 40 per cent at the state election). This stands in very stark contrast to polling conducted for the Greens by Galaxy and published in the Sun-Herald last week, which had the Greens at 44 per cent against 29 per cent for Labor and 23 per cent for the Liberals, translating into a Greens two-party win of either 65-35 or 56-44. Andrew Crook’s report in Crikey also related that Cath Bowtell, ACTU industrial officer and state party president, is likely to run again for Labor after failing to succeed Lindsay Tanner as member at last year’s election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

573 comments on “Sunday polling snippets”

Comments Page 1 of 12
1 2 … 12

  1. William,

    Thank you. Especially for being up early. Adam Bandt in danger is interesting. That, by itself, suggests that Labor is on the up.

  4. [On the issue of environmental sustainability, Labor scores behind both the Greens and the Coalition with a vote of just 22 per cent among ALP voters.]
    Faints! Briefly.

  6. Barca is kicking Mallorca’s ass 3-0 at half time. I’m liking the European football results so far. If only Los Meringues could get done later.

  7. The Canberra Times front page is “Grounded Kangaroo”. Up top in 12 point is “Three Aussies feared dead in Afghan attack: Page 3”

    I think “feared” is a tad understated: Sally Sara is no novice. She does great work and has to be an OA next time around.

  10. Bob Katter has reformed the National Party in Qld, the LNP will be the Libs and Nats in exile. I hear 6 other LNP members are about to join Katter.

    Bye Campbell, too bad, so sad.

  13. Good morning, Bludgers. Good Morning, TLBD.

    Just come over from Plane Talking & the Qantas row. The more I see & hear from that arrogant little Leprechaun the more I understand the spirit that stuffed the Irish economy.

    One thing to be sure, to be sure, it will drown out just about everything else – except the Melbourne Cup and, perhaps, the RBA if it drops the interest rate.

    According to Shanners in the OO (paywalled) one of the 1998 Waterfront Dispute’s architects, Peter Reith raps Tony Abbott over Qantas row as Julia Gillard urged not to intervene in dispute

    [HOWARD government minister Peter Reith has attacked Tony Abbott for suggesting that Julia Gillard intervene in the worsening Qantas dispute, declaring it would set back industrial relations policy 30 years.

    The increasingly bitter and damaging pay dispute, which is disrupting Qantas flights around Australia and threatening the airline’s business, has led to numerous calls for the government to intervene and save Qantas.]

    Nice one, Shanners. Thanks for telling us. Nice one, Reith. Keep putting the boot into Tony.

    One of the stories it drowning out it the loss of more Aussie soldiers in something reminiscent of USA shooting sprees Three Australian soldiers killed in Afghanistan on morning parade. An interpreted was also killed and seven wounded by a gunman wearing an Afghan army uniform.

    Not a good morning for The Great South Land.

  14. OPT,

    And a very good morning to yourself!

    Isn’t the board to do the best for its shareholders and not for their own wallets?

    Not hard to work out: “QANTAS is for quality” would do the job.

  15. God the Australian is a discusting paper.

    “Fix It Gillard” screems the font page. What are going to see next. “Gillards Brown’s Bitch”

    I’m sure Peter Reith’s comments will stay behing the paywall.

  16. [Bob Katter has reformed the National Party in Qld, the LNP will be the Libs and Nats in exile. I hear 6 other LNP members are about to join Katter.]

    Wow, ruawake. There have been “Split” rumblings round the ridges here since Mike Horan (Tmba South) went ballistic over the “Liberal Coup”, and the hard “christian’ right contenders for his seat were rolled by Tom McVeigh’s son, John. Many (if not most) Nats were never enthusiastic about Palmer’s LNP, especially when it lost in 2009; were unimpressed when John Paul L won leadership, and have been as irate as Mike over Cando’s Liberal coup – especially since the Nats were the cashed-up party even without Palmer, and the Liberals were almost broke.

    There’ll be a book or more in Q State election 2012 – Scott Prasser one for sure.

    I’d guess the rush is now on to save old NP seats in the north & CSG-affected Surat Basin.

  18. Here’s the CM report of (one) LNP defection Exclusive: MP Shane Knuth has defected from the Liberal National Party

    [Tension between National and Liberal MPs is reaching fever pitch as discipline within the merged party deteriorates, threatening Campbell Newman’s clear run for premier.

    It comes as more LNP members are making “overtures” to join Katter’s fledgling party.

    Mr Knuth, the MP for Dalrymple in inland northern Queensland, said he could no longer stomach being forced to vote against National core values or watching the poor treatment of former Nationals.]

  19. Good morning Bludgers.
    Joyce will be on SkyNews this morning. I’m not quite sure when yey but I’ll advise.
    There’s a lady on SkyNews right now who sounds very similar to Kristina Kaneally.

  20. Good morning Bludgers.
    Joyce will be on SkyNews this morning. I’m not quite sure when yey but I’ll advise.
    There’s a lady on SkyNews right now who sounds very similar to Kristina Kaneally.

  21. [Frank Calabrese
    Posted Sunday, October 30, 2011 at 3:02 am | Permalink
    7NewsSydney7 News Sydney

    by mamabook

    Pilots’ Association has told 7News the #Qantas #grounding was planned & the airline has booked thousands of hotel rooms in advance

    8 hours agoFavoriteRetweetReply]
    ummm.
    Knowingly selling a service you had no intention of delivering, you would think there would be a class action in that.

  27. Morning all. Before discussing Qantas sympathy to the ADF and families of those killed in Afghanistan. I really wish we would get out of there now. we are making no difference to the outcome and Aussies are getting killed.

  28. Back to Qantas, I find it interesting to see how non-Australian media portray this, to compare to media here. The Singapore Straights Times called it a “drastic step” by management:
    [Australian flag carrier Qantas on Saturday took the drastic step of grounding all its domestic and international aircraft as part of an industrial dispute.

    The carrier, which has been hit by a series of strikes, said all employees involved in the action would be locked out from Monday evening and flights grounded from 0600 GMT on Saturday (2pm Singapore time). ]
    http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/World/Story/STIStory_728029.html

  30. [They just replayed Lyndal’s faux pas. She had said that unions / QANTAS had approached the government for intervention. They hadn’t.]
    This from ducky last night.
    That is an INEXCUSABLE thing for an ABC person to say!
    Incompetence at best.

  32. Ta, fredn. IMO, Joyce’s aim was to screw anything Australian about Qantas, just as Sol T’s was to screw Telstra. In both cases, the assets could then be easily sold off to overseas competitors as share values crashed. Sol’s crashed & burned over his disastrous reaction to Howard’s BB plan.

    Dealing with Gillard & her ministers, though, will be a different kettle of fish from dealing with Howard & his. This is beginning to smell like another Waterfront Dispute. If anything shows just how incompetent/ ignorant Joyce is, it’s taking on a government full of Legal Eagles & Union Bosses, inc Greg Combet and one of his union’s 1998 legal team, now PM Gillard.

    BTW, if this report (Ta Frank)

    [Pilots’ Association has told 7News the #Qantas #grounding was planned & the airline has booked thousands of hotel rooms in advance]

    is correct, and it predates Qantas’s AGM Friday 28/10/2011 – where it obviously was not disclosed to voting shareholders – then Joyce can kiss good-by to a great many things (inc pay rise & at least some of his severance pay).

  33. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    It’s incredible that you get 71% pay increase to destroy the company brand #qantas #auspol
    24 minutes ago

  34. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Internationally speaking, regardless of merits from both sides & outcome, #QANTAS brand is fucked. what’re they thinking, incredible #auspol
    now

  35. [I guess parliament will be quite interesting tomorrow.]

    Will the PM be there? I read she will be for only a day before flying off again. What will the Oppo do without her? Will they fire every question at Swan in the mistaken belief he is the weakest link (though that meme’s taken a battering recently)? Can Abbott pull his usual MPI if his intended victim isn’t there? Will Harry reveal which Oppo members signed in the loudmouth whackos and punish them?

  36. [is correct, and it predates Qantas’s AGM Friday 28/10/2011 – where it obviously was not disclosed to voting shareholders – then Joyce can kiss good-by to a great many things (inc pay rise & at least some of his severance pay).]

    Oz, like George Trumbul of AMP, Sol Trujillo of Telstra, Alan Joyce is gone but will walk away with more $10m to destroy the company brand.

  38. Person of little patience, and I k ow with the sad. Sad death of our soldiers, I should not be,

    How does one read the next, post without going all the way up to top, to name list,
    No tat doesn’t work either u end up back in the same spot,
    If u don’t comment

  40. Greetings
    mari
    [Pleased to see SMH poll 56 to 44(27006) against the Qantas move]
    Yes, these are unscientific polls etc etc. But I would have thought Qantas management would be not displeased with such an outcome, given the lack of a major softening up campaign of public opinion before taking action on such a high profile, widespread brand

  41. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Why does it take so long for #FWA to decide on Termination of #QANTAS crisis. 21 days talks to resolve the crisis then the Umpires decides
    now

  42. OPT
    [IMO, Joyce’s aim was to screw anything Australian about Qantas, just as Sol T’s was to screw Telstra. In both cases, the assets could then be easily sold off to overseas competitors as share values crashed.]
    I would have thought there would be close to zero political appetite to change the 51% minimum Australian ownership, a la ASX takeover bid. (Quite apart from complexities of flag carrier ownership, which is beyond my competency)

  44. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    You simply cannot ground the whole fleet on the excuse of industrial disputes, safety yes. i feel a class action Vs #qantas coming #auspol
    now

  45. [I guess parliament will be quite interesting tomorrow.

    Pairs if MPs cant get to Canberra??]
    Hmm. Some interesting logistical and procedural problems tomorrow.

  46. [OzPol Tragic
    ….
    Dealing with Gillard & her ministers, though, will be a different kettle of fish from dealing with Howard & his. This is beginning to smell like another Waterfront Dispute. If anything shows just how incompetent/ ignorant Joyce is, it’s taking on a government full of Legal Eagles & Union Bosses, inc Greg Combet and one of his union’s 1998 legal team, now PM Gillard.]

    That about sums it up. This was Gillards bread and butter. The oppsoition are babes in the wood and the Australian Expects it to cause damage to the Government.

    To be really popular you need to do well in crisis. Gillard has got her crisis and it’s right where her skill set is.

    A weeks is a short time in politics.

  47. Interesting that this action was approved by the Qantas Board. Who are the Qantas Board? See them here:
    http://www.qantas.com.au/travel/airlines/board-of-directors/global/en

    A fairly anti-union group. Note the following about this quite narrow group:
    * Leigh Clifford, AO – ex Rio Tinto director
    * Alan Joyce – current CEO a mathematician
    * General Peter Cosgrove, AC, MC – ex Army
    * Patricia Cross – ex NAB exec & BNP director
    * Richard Goodmanson – Rio Tinto director
    * Garry Hounsell – Freehills Lawyers director & former Arthur Andersen exec 😀
    * Corinne Namblard – French ex BNP banker
    * Paul Rayner – Boral director; ex British American Tobacco accountant
    * Dr John Schubert, AO – BHP Billiton director
    * James Strong, AO – ex CEO & lawyer
    * Barbara Ward, AM – ex Ansett CEO and Allco director

    Note the inter-connectedness of the board: all the ex Bankers worked in the same banks (NAB or BNP). The business execs directed Rio Tinto and BHPB. The IR lawyer directs Freehills, Rio’s law firm in the contract labor dispute. So half the Qantas board has been involved in former union busting attempts. This board might as well have been handpicked by John Howard.

  48. Finns
    [You simply cannot ground the whole fleet on the excuse of industrial disputes, safety yes.]
    I thought Joyce’s announcement clearly insinuated concerns of industrial sabotage (different question whether that was slanderous)

    Nice board analysis Socrates…John Schubert was also chairman of CBA

  49. [Oz, like George Trumbul of AMP, Sol Trujillo of Telstra, Alan Joyce is gone but will walk away with more $10m to destroy the company brand.]

    Finns, not necessarily. He’s likely to face a class action shareholder dispute over non-disclosure at the AGM of his intent to shut down the airline and lock-out staff, with all that will cost the company, If it’s proven that prior arrangements were made to cover the dispute, but not disclosed to passengers, they should also be able to mount a class action.

    One action that should be open to shareholders is an emergency version of the AGM – or whatever special arrangement Qantas has. By then, big investors (banks, super funds etc) will have re-evaluated what’s happening, as well as the likely public reaction if current staff members are sacked and replaced with scab labour, and the likely political repercussions if they do not at least rein in Joyce (preferably sack him). After all, Telstra shareholders did finally revolt, and I expect most of Qantas’s main & mum & dad shareholders (pretty much the same as Telstra’s) will also.

  50. [latikambourke Latika Bourke
    #Qantas CEO Alan Joyce says they chose to ground the fleet on a Saturday because lightest amount of aircraft in the sky, cites safety.
    6 minutes ago ]

    Laocoon, my reply

    Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    @
    @latikambourke So Alan Joyce is now citing safety as an excuse as he is losing the battle for public opinion #qantas
    1 minute ago

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 1 of 12
1 2 … 12