Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Newspoll offers the government a mixed bag: its best result on two-party preferred since May, with the Coalition lead cut to 54-46 from 57-43 last time, but a 10-point net decline in support for the carbon tax since late July. The two-party shift is entirely down to a four point drop in the Coalition primary vote to 45 per cent, with Labor remaining stuck on 29 per cent. The Greens have leapt three points to 15 per cent, their best result since March. Julia Gillard is up on both approval (three pionts to 31 per cent) and disapproval (one point to 61 per cent), while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 34 per cent and up two on disapproval to 55 per cent. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 40-35 to 39-36. Support for the carbon tax is down four points to 32 per cent, with opposition up six to 59 per cent.

Redistributions:

• The federal redistribution for South Australia has been finalised, with no changes made to the draft proposals from August. The biggest changes are the transfer of about 10,000 areas in an area around Aberfoyle Park from Mayo to Boothby, and a redrawing of the northern end of Port Adelaide, which has gained 8000 voters around Burton from Wakefield and lost a projected 7200 voters in an area of rapid growth around Salisbury Park to Makin. None of the changes is too remarkable in terms of likely outcomes at the next election – Antony Green has as always calculated notional margins on the new boundaries.

• Antony also reviews the finalised state redistribution for Western Australia, where the main change on the draft is the reversal of a plan to move Mandurah from the South West upper house region to South Metropolitan.

• There’s also the finalised redistribution for the Australian Capital Territory Legislative Assembly, which on this occasion has proved a slightly less dull subject than usual.

Preselections:

• The Sun-Herald reports a “fractious meeting of the 17-member Liberal state executive” has narrowly endorsed a plan to hold preselection primaries in federal seats yet to be determined. According to Niki Savva on the ABC’s Insiders program, it is “only a decision that’s been made in principle and they might try it in one or two seats to see how it goes, and that’s something that will be negotiated between the NSW and the federal divisions”. The Sun-Herald report also says nominations for most Liberal-held seats will be open tomorrow (Monday) and settled by next month.

• With respect to the state’s Labor-held seats, the federal Liberal Party is fast-tracking preselections for eight key seats: Dobell, Robertson, Lindsay, Greenway, Reid, Banks, Parramatta and Eden-Monaro. The Sunday Telegraph reports “local builder Matthew Lusted” is the front-runner in Dobell, and that Tony Abbott has approached unsuccessful 2010 candidate David Gazard to try again in Eden-Monaro. The Telegraph has elsewhere reported that Ross Cameron, who held Parramatta from 1996 until his defeat until 2004, is contemplating a return to politics depending on the state of his business affairs. However, he is not interested in recovering his old seat, instead having his sights on Dobell, Robertson, Kingsford-Smith or the Senate. Cameron is encouraging Rachel Merton, daughter of former state Baulkham Hills MP Wayne Merton, to contest Parramatta. Di Bartok of the Parramatta Advertiser reports that the candidate from 2010, engineer Charles Camenzuli, is also interested in running, as are “Martin Zaiter, Brett Murray and George Goivos”.

• Michelle Harris of the Newcastle Herald reports Jaimie Abbott, a former media adviser to Paterson MP Bob Baldwin and RAAF reservist who has served in Afghanistan, has emerged as the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Newcastle.

• The NSW Nationals have changed their constitution to allow local party members to determine what kind of preselection they want, including the option of “community preselections” along the lines of US-style open primaries. A trial in the seat of Tamworth before the 2011 election attracted over 4000 voters and produced a winning candidate in Kevin Anderson.

• LNP campaign director James McGrath has confirmed his interest in succeeding Alex Somlyay as member for the federal Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax. McGrath has recently been embroiled in controversy over his role in paying former Labor candidate Robert Hough to compile dirt files on party figures. In 2008 McGrath was sacked from a job as adviser to London lord mayor Boris Johnson after making an allegedly racist comment about the city’s black community.

• The Burnie Advocate reports Glynn Williams, “Poppy Growers Tasmania president, legal practitioner and Hospice Care Association North West president”, has nominated for Liberal preselection in Braddon. It is presumed he will face opposition from Brett Whiteley, who lost his seat at last year’s state election. The Advocate reported on September 17 that an internal Liberal poll of 220 respondents conducted from August 22-25 had the Liberals leading 60-40 on two-party preferred.

Other polling:

• Market research company ReachTel has recently published two results from automated phone polls, the first targeting 850 respondents in Labor’s most marginal Queensland electorate of Moreton and published on October 12. The poll put incumbent Graham Perrett 54-46 behind on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 35 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the LNP and 9 per cent for the Greens. The poll also asked respondents about the carbon tax, finding 39 per cent support and 54 per cent opposition.

• The second ReachTel poll, published on October 19, was a national survey of 2428 which canvased three attitudinal questions. On the future of the present government, three options were offered: 50 per cent went for an immediate election, 36.5 per cent thought the Gillard government should serve out its term, and 14 per cent believed that Kevin Rudd should take over as Prime Minister. A question on same-sex marriage produced a very much more negative response than previous such inquiries from Essential Research and Westpoll: 43 per cent were in favour and 47 per cent were opposed. The Transport Workers Union’s industrial action against Qantas had 36 per cent support and 44 per cent opposition. Results on all three questions showed strong distinctions according to voting intention.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,048 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. confessions
    [That is hypocrisy jv, nothing more.]
    Your party has a platform on carbon but the leadership does the opposite until forced to do otherwise; but I’m the hypocrite?

    You support what the leadership does in dumping the carbon issue last year, then cling on to the platform now when the party is forced to act this term unexpectedly; but I’m the hypocrite?

    I have had a perfectly consistent position on this all the way through, while you have defended every position your party took, like a contortionist; but I’m the hypocrite?

    Crikey.

  2. Mod Lib

    When you have media of the ‘quality’ of Today Tonight distorting the truth so often, people are wide open to anti-govt propaganda.

  4. Mod Lib,

    The way the polls are trending, your Gillard terrible meme is about to be sunk without survivors.

    Time you discovered some real excuses for the Liberals failure and addressed them.

  5. ML

    I have no link, I’m afraid. It was in the cafe where I had a leisurely cup of coffee.

    I also learned that the loss of smell is being tested for use as an early diagnostic tool for Alzheimer’s. The reason is that our sense of smell is tightly bound to the memory function.

    I do like the AFR.

  6. Finns:

    Sounds very 20th century.

    Surely Finns, Boerwar etc have some patents which can be dusted off for just such an occasion?

  10. Re Packer and the Pokies
    ____________________
    Today on the media I thought both Wilkie and Xenephon were very good.
    Taking Packer to task and hitting the wealthy
    Actually the Fed. Govt could learn a few tricks from the two of them
    This is a dangerous issue for Abbott and could cost his much support

  11. Greensborough Growler

    [poroti,

    Brilliant. I was thinking of that Marlon Brando scene. You must be psychotic. Thanks!]

    “Psychotic” EEEEEEEK ! 😀 😀

  12. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, October 27, 2011 at 9:18 pm | Permalink
    Mod Lib,

    The way the polls are trending, your Gillard terrible meme is about to be sunk without survivors.

    Time you discovered some real excuses for the Liberals failure and addressed them.]

    You enjoyed the 54-46 eh?

    Lets see whether that was the outlier or the portender of a new doom for the Coalition. I suspect the ALP fall is over, but I wouldnt get my hopes up on a climb just yet…

    Exhibit A: No change in ALP primary vote (still has 2 in front of it)

  13. confessions

    No worries. We had the hamster DNA decoded so now we own all the world’s hamster genes.

    If you want some we can give them to you for a suitable price.

  15. Mod Lib,

    The trend is my friend.

    Peak Abbott has passed and the inevitable slide into the primeval swamp is well underway for Tony.

    It’s all upside for Gillard from here.

  16. jv:

    Labor policy on carbon has been consistent. I don’t know why you persist with a thought bubble which is demonstrably untrue.

  19. [My perception (possibly incorrect) of Victoria Police is that things have regressed quite sharply since Christine Nixon departed.]

    Confessions, Overland was committed to a similar style of policing to Nixon. I think the Police Association will now see themselves as having won the war having ridden themselves of both them and been given a timely bonus pay offer for their efforts.

  20. [Abbott is the “No” Wiggle.]

    Damnit GG, I’m in the middle of a ton of work here, and you’ve just sparked the Photoshop genie!

  21. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, October 27, 2011 at 9:24 pm | Permalink
    Mod Lib,

    The trend is my friend.

    Peak Abbott has passed and the inevitable slide into the primeval swamp is well underway for Tony.

    It’s all upside for Gillard from here.]

    Ah….”Peak Abbott”.

    Lets see what the latest Pollytrend shows us. You’re right, there will be a little dip with this Newspoll, but one swallow does not a summer make!

  22. [Labor policy on carbon has been consistent. I don’t know why you persist with a thought bubble which is demonstrably untrue.]

    Labor policy on asylum seekers has also been consistent.

    We all know that Labor policy in the platform means nothing to the policy priorities of the leadership these days. Glossing of the distinction between the two by you won’t change that.

    What is it that is demonstrably untrue?

  24. [We all know that Labor policy in the platform means nothing to the policy priorities of the leadership these days.]

    And yet you refuse to acknowledge Labor’s consistent committent to pricing carbon. That’s the hypocrisy I was talking about.

    You can’t have it both ways, jv.

  26. {James Packer says his company does more than anyone to help problem gamblers]

    [Mr Packer also called on the federal government to do more to support Australia’s gambling industry. In particular it should help attract Asian tourists to the region through tourism campaigns, more direct flights, easier access to travel visas and quicker customs processes for VIP gamblers.]

    Mr Packer is correct in all accounts.

    First up you have a problem Gambler.

    A problem gambler is one who whinges about the fact that they have to pay air fares and accommodation to get to Jimmys hole just to have a flutter. That is a real problem.

    What are the gamblers problems for the gambler to be a problem gambler.

    First problem is somewhere to gamble. Jimmy supplies that.

    If the venue is a long way away the next problem for the gambler is how to get there.

    Casinos supply luxury aircraft at his expense to get the gambler there.

    The next problem is where does the problem gambler stay.

    Casinos supply that at swish penthouse appartments.

    The next problem is what happens when the problem gambler has done their dough.

    Casinos solve that by slapping $50,000.00 in the problem gamblers account.

    So all the problems the problem gambler has are solved in a way that leaves the gambler with no impediments to have a gamble.

    [Mr Packer also called on the federal government to do more to support Australia’s gambling industry. In particular it should help attract Asian tourists to the region through tourism campaigns, more direct flights, easier access to travel visas and quicker customs processes for VIP gamblers.]

    What does Jimmy mean by this?

    Jimmy is saying that he and his casino should not have to foot the bills for the gamblers problems.

    This can easily be solved by the government reclaiming the Yarra river and turn it into a landing strip. The Government should then be laying on charter flights for rich gamblers from Asia and they can land directly at the door of the Crown.

    The government could also hire out hundreds of penthouse apartments for their accommodation during their visit.

    The Government could set up a customs/immigration station at this runway to give them free visas and check they are carrying millions in folding stuff.

    If the Government were to solve these VIP gamblers problems then Jimmy will stand to add to his bottom line because he does not have the problem of getting them here at his expense, therefore they will have more to gamble with.

    Love your work Jimmy. They would not be problem gamblers anymore, they would be ordinary gamblers with all the problems eliminated so they could lose more of their money thereby giving more support to Australias Jimmys gambling industry. 😉

  27. [Rod Hagen
    Posted Thursday, October 27, 2011 at 9:34 pm | Permalink
    I’m sure even the mildest of genuinely Mod Libs would hope we’ve seen the arse end of “peak Abbott” by now, ML!]

    How are you Rod? Haven’t “spoken” to you for what seems like ages!

    Truth be told, the best thing from my perspective is a surge in the ALP vote, pressure on Abbott, and a leadership change to (well lets not get picky here, pretty much anyone)!

    Mal Washer for PM…

  28. Demo in Oakland California today
    _____________
    While the various “occupy”demos in the USA have been peacefull…one in Oakland ,California has taken a serious turn today
    Oakland is the very shabby,poor,run-down suburb of San Francisco across the bridge from central San Francisco…not much glamour in Oakland

    After the occupation of a plaza there,the local cops went in hard with tear-gas,noisy granades,and batons
    This has outraged locals and a much bigger demo is now underway,after what is described as a “riot”lasting 6 hours
    Oakland is a poor and very deprived area..these aren’t students or middle-class kids,but angry US workers,black and hispanic…the most deprived people
    It’s a very scary suburb ,and we went there …as one must..to catch the train at the Oakland station which is part of the West Coast rail service from San Diego to Vancover
    …such as it is nowadays in the USA
    BTW..our overnight train to Seattle (a 20 hour trip) was 12 hours late in arrival at Seattle,,,says much for the USA these days

  30. Rod Hagen
    Assuming Abbott suffers conflagration (something I hope for), if the Libs change to Turnbull before the election, it will be fascinating to see the policy shuffle between the two majors. We would potentially be looking at a Liberal leadership left of Labor on a lot of issues. I guess Labor will just lurch back a bit.

  31. [Mal Washer for PM…]

    Washer is retiring at the next election, I believe.

    If Frank is right, you might as well cheer on a Mattias Cormann for PM.

  32. Evening Gary!

    You have missed all the deep and meaningless discussion of how the ALP has been consistent on carbon action and asylum seekers.

    Its been quite edifying (or should that be stultifying? I always get those confused)

  34. +[aking Packer to task and hitting the wealthy
    Actually the Fed. Govt could learn a few tricks from the two of them
    This is a dangerous issue for Abbott and could cost his much support]

    deblonay – I think a lot of people see Packer in a bad light. He’s made some bad decisions over the years and throwing his hand in now and telling the Govt. what he wants is not a good look. I agree with you – it’s not a good look for Packer or Abbott.

    and yes, X and Wilkie have been really good over the past couple of days. Much better than having the Govt. go the heavy on it at the moment.

    I wonder why nobody has run graphs of just how little the Clubs actually do put into the community, apart from the NRL.

  35. Glen,

    You were dancing around like a triumphant 50 cent punter at 61/39.

    Unfortunately for the Libs, the numbers are slipping away.

    2 years till the election. Love your optimism that Abbott will even contest the election, let alone win it.

  37. [2 years till the election. Love your optimism that Abbott will even contest the election, let alone win it.]

    Rudd vs. Turnbull

    U know U want it Australia!!!!!

  38. [2 years till the election. Love your optimism that Abbott will even contest the election, let alone win it.]

    GG, you mean

    [2 years, 104 weeks, 730 days, 17520 hours, 1,051,200 minutes and 63,072,000 secs]

  41. Truth be told, the best thing from my perspective is a surge in the ALP vote,
    pressure on Abbott, and a leadership change…Mal Washer for PM……

    Afraid we won’t get a Mal Washer from either side, ML. But hey! Haven’t Mod Libs got the next best thing? All they have to do is vote for the current Labor Party and they might as well be voting for the same ideology (albeit more crassly expressed) as the party of a Menzies or a Gorton? Certainly more like the Liberals than the Liberals are these days! 😉

  45. jv – you wouldn’t like Malcolm’s policy on AS. When he was leader he absolutely panned Kevin Rudd for lightening the policy and he was as tough as Howard and Abbott on it. No leftie sentiment there. On gay marriage he has said he believes in the status quo. Will he vote for it – not while he is in Shadow Cabinet. The current ETS/CT policy – no vote from Turnbull for it. NBN – too socialistic for Malcolm and has to be sold off to commercial interests.
    Where are the leftie decisions there.

  46. [Certainly more like the Liberals than the Liberals are these days!]

    Hey, we had a liberal government from 1983-1996 as well so why not another liberal government with an ALP Prime Minister?

  49. Of course, what disproves j.v’s “Labor only acted on carbon pricing because they were forced to” meme is the way the Labor politicians celebrated when the legislation passed the lower House.

    No one celebrates something they’ve been forced to do against their will like that.

  50. [Viliage Idiot – currently you are vying for it along with Evan and Glen.]

    Hah!!!!!

    Thats where I outsmart all of you lot:

    I am not from a village.

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