The latest fortnightly Newspoll offers the government a mixed bag: its best result on two-party preferred since May, with the Coalition lead cut to 54-46 from 57-43 last time, but a 10-point net decline in support for the carbon tax since late July. The two-party shift is entirely down to a four point drop in the Coalition primary vote to 45 per cent, with Labor remaining stuck on 29 per cent. The Greens have leapt three points to 15 per cent, their best result since March. Julia Gillard is up on both approval (three pionts to 31 per cent) and disapproval (one point to 61 per cent), while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 34 per cent and up two on disapproval to 55 per cent. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 40-35 to 39-36. Support for the carbon tax is down four points to 32 per cent, with opposition up six to 59 per cent.
Redistributions:
• The federal redistribution for South Australia has been finalised, with no changes made to the draft proposals from August. The biggest changes are the transfer of about 10,000 areas in an area around Aberfoyle Park from Mayo to Boothby, and a redrawing of the northern end of Port Adelaide, which has gained 8000 voters around Burton from Wakefield and lost a projected 7200 voters in an area of rapid growth around Salisbury Park to Makin. None of the changes is too remarkable in terms of likely outcomes at the next election – Antony Green has as always calculated notional margins on the new boundaries.
• Antony also reviews the finalised state redistribution for Western Australia, where the main change on the draft is the reversal of a plan to move Mandurah from the South West upper house region to South Metropolitan.
• There’s also the finalised redistribution for the Australian Capital Territory Legislative Assembly, which on this occasion has proved a slightly less dull subject than usual.
Preselections:
• The Sun-Herald reports a “fractious meeting of the 17-member Liberal state executive” has narrowly endorsed a plan to hold preselection primaries in federal seats yet to be determined. According to Niki Savva on the ABC’s Insiders program, it is “only a decision that’s been made in principle and they might try it in one or two seats to see how it goes, and that’s something that will be negotiated between the NSW and the federal divisions”. The Sun-Herald report also says nominations for most Liberal-held seats will be open tomorrow (Monday) and settled by next month.
• With respect to the state’s Labor-held seats, the federal Liberal Party is fast-tracking preselections for eight key seats: Dobell, Robertson, Lindsay, Greenway, Reid, Banks, Parramatta and Eden-Monaro. The Sunday Telegraph reports “local builder Matthew Lusted” is the front-runner in Dobell, and that Tony Abbott has approached unsuccessful 2010 candidate David Gazard to try again in Eden-Monaro. The Telegraph has elsewhere reported that Ross Cameron, who held Parramatta from 1996 until his defeat until 2004, is contemplating a return to politics depending on the state of his business affairs. However, he is not interested in recovering his old seat, instead having his sights on Dobell, Robertson, Kingsford-Smith or the Senate. Cameron is encouraging Rachel Merton, daughter of former state Baulkham Hills MP Wayne Merton, to contest Parramatta. Di Bartok of the Parramatta Advertiser reports that the candidate from 2010, engineer Charles Camenzuli, is also interested in running, as are “Martin Zaiter, Brett Murray and George Goivos”.
• Michelle Harris of the Newcastle Herald reports Jaimie Abbott, a former media adviser to Paterson MP Bob Baldwin and RAAF reservist who has served in Afghanistan, has emerged as the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Newcastle.
• The NSW Nationals have changed their constitution to allow local party members to determine what kind of preselection they want, including the option of “community preselections” along the lines of US-style open primaries. A trial in the seat of Tamworth before the 2011 election attracted over 4000 voters and produced a winning candidate in Kevin Anderson.
• LNP campaign director James McGrath has confirmed his interest in succeeding Alex Somlyay as member for the federal Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax. McGrath has recently been embroiled in controversy over his role in paying former Labor candidate Robert Hough to compile dirt files on party figures. In 2008 McGrath was sacked from a job as adviser to London lord mayor Boris Johnson after making an allegedly racist comment about the city’s black community.
• The Burnie Advocate reports Glynn Williams, “Poppy Growers Tasmania president, legal practitioner and Hospice Care Association North West president”, has nominated for Liberal preselection in Braddon. It is presumed he will face opposition from Brett Whiteley, who lost his seat at last year’s state election. The Advocate reported on September 17 that an internal Liberal poll of 220 respondents conducted from August 22-25 had the Liberals leading 60-40 on two-party preferred.
Other polling:
• Market research company ReachTel has recently published two results from automated phone polls, the first targeting 850 respondents in Labor’s most marginal Queensland electorate of Moreton and published on October 12. The poll put incumbent Graham Perrett 54-46 behind on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 35 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the LNP and 9 per cent for the Greens. The poll also asked respondents about the carbon tax, finding 39 per cent support and 54 per cent opposition.
• The second ReachTel poll, published on October 19, was a national survey of 2428 which canvased three attitudinal questions. On the future of the present government, three options were offered: 50 per cent went for an immediate election, 36.5 per cent thought the Gillard government should serve out its term, and 14 per cent believed that Kevin Rudd should take over as Prime Minister. A question on same-sex marriage produced a very much more negative response than previous such inquiries from Essential Research and Westpoll: 43 per cent were in favour and 47 per cent were opposed. The Transport Workers Union’s industrial action against Qantas had 36 per cent support and 44 per cent opposition. Results on all three questions showed strong distinctions according to voting intention.
Cos we couldn’t transfer the old users database from the old free site.
Howard exorcised the wets and any remaining principled Libs are too scared or gutless to act on their principles. It’s a party full of lazy opportunists and psychopaths.
jv @ 2845
Lawyer sophistry.
The objective has consistently been to limit GHGE.
William has even created a Downtime thread
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/10/27/downtime/#comments
Pricing GHGEs has been Labor policy for at least 4 years now.
Mod Lib: “I respect a pollie/government that fights for what it believes in, even if unpopular”
On this metric, if you wanted to give (i) Obi, (ii) Gilliard Labour, and (iii) Abbott Coalition a score each out of 10 – I wonder what it would be. Maybe if all Abbott believes in is being PM for its own sake, then he could get the highest score in a strict interpretation!!!
Beyond “unpopular”, how about trying to do something that actually is honestly aimed at solving a problem – as opposed to cravenly playing to your base? I think Carbon Tax and Aus Stimpac pass muster, whereas US Stimulus, Healthcare and Debt-addressing dont come remotely close. As for anything the current opposition in Australia offer on this score… yeish, its one big “N/A”
OMG! What’s happening?!
Frank, how does one change their avatar on your blog? 😛
you should have the same avatar as here
fess
the end of days
🙂
ps will holdover on da bunker for the mo
Nope – wouldn’t let me login with my old one, so had to create a new username – now what 🙁
You have two log ins it seems the george.yoursurname has your avatar here
just edit that to display George as your nasme
actually just realised! doh!
I’ll delete the old one with the correct Avatar
Its not only just on deficit either. Obama is very fond of using ‘bipartisanship’ as an excuse to cave to Republicans, sadly. I know there are structural difficulties, but he barely even tried when the Dems had a large majority. Evidence also suggests he isn’t much of a negotiator. Its one reason I prefer having a leader like Gillard than a leader like Obama.
confessions
Maaate after tonight Wilbo’s gerbils will not work for love nor money. No way would they put up with a late Friday or be in any fit condition on Saturday night after this… 😀
http://www.showmeperth.com.au/event/bbq-queen
Well:
(i) Obi 6/10 for achievement, 3/10 for political tactics
(ii) Gilliard Labour, 4/10 for achievement, 1/10 for politics
(iii) Abbott Coalition (a bit unfair comparing government with opposition) but 1/10 for achievement, 9/10 for political tactics (short-term at least)
Mod – ok, lets call it for this evening!
FWIW, I’m far from orgasmic over Gilliard Labour – but until the Oppo comes up with some actual thought out policies for where to take the country to, then its a bit rich to hop on the bandwagon of trashing the ALP when what they have actually done is empirically pretty good, I would argue (in spite of the lousy politics – esp Rudd/Gilliard/lack of backbone, etc etc). This will be Turnbull’s challenge and I hope he’s investing in it… but i wonder what he truly would do v different (or is it a marginal argument he will offer!). Hockey as an alternative am not sure about at all.
By the same token, in the US someone is needed who can actually accomplish something substantive in terms of its sturctural challenges. Obama has shown me that he is not that person. How dangerous Romney really is as an alternative is what’s going to determine things… frankly, I think he has a very good chance indeed if he survives the primaries!
Gotta go for tonite. Till next time
We should do this as we disappear together
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epUk3T2Kfno
It’sTime@2582 – glad you didn’t hold back there 😉
Y’all come back now ye hear…
Gus:
Thanks. Would appreciate any insider info you choose to impart.
Its Time
Don’t know what that means. I dare say Mr Paine would not either.
I never said that everything that Mr Rudd does or doesn’t say is a cunning plan to destablise Ms Gillard. What I have said is that anytime Ms Gillard gets some clear air and starts doing well in the polls up crops Mr Rudd with some leadership destabilisation. Since Ms Gillard rarely gets clear air, or rarely does well in the polls Mr Rudd is, in public, and for most of the time, well-behaved.
Straw man. Nobody mentioned ‘a declaration of war’. If you go back through the posts and actually read my position you will see that it is argued cogently. If you don’t like the logic in this instance you should demonstrate why Mr Rudd couldn’t find it within himself to say, ‘I fully support the Government’s action to rid us of the scourge of pokie addiction. For a more detailed answer I suggest you interview the responsible minister.’ Mr Rudd had two chances to do this; once today and once yesterday.
As for ‘post hoc’ I can hardly analyse any particular things Mr Rudd says until he says them, or not, as the case may be. But I will predict that Mr Rudd will do more of this same generic stuff over the coming months. I’ll let you know all about it the next time he does it.
I agree that Mr Rudd is an occasional oxygen thief, except when he sticks to foreign affairs.
I don’t think it is funny that a man who has asserted repeatedly wtte that AGW is the greatest moral challenge of our time is destabilising a Prime Minister who is working hard to do something about AGW.
Not funny at all, I am afraid.
bemused
Love it.
The answer is, “lawyer sophistry”.
confessions
Pricing GHGEs has been Labor policy for at least 4 years now]
Yep, the loyalists must have said that 100 times now. Here’s two more examples one after the other. I know it’s in the Rightariat spin manual, but surely you can see that means nothing when such policy can be dumped by the current leadership group any time, as carbon was in April last year, and several times after up to the election.
Onshore processing of asylum seekers also ‘has been Labor policy for at least 4 years now” – paragraph 157 I think. But what does that mean in practice for the leadership?
Both mean nothing in the modern hollow party in which the right-wing leadership controls everything centrally. Sometimes even you guys must realise that the spin should be dropped, surely.
I am curious as to what Overland is thinking right now
I’d be very surprised if Overland wasn’t aware of what was going on from the word go, Vic. He’s always seemed to me likea highly intelligent, and honest, and brave, man.
I reckon he’d be mighty peeved about the ABC’s Lindy Burns using a News Ltd hack (an organisation which played an equally outrageous part in his departure) as the “expert commentary” today claiming Ryan was just a naive bystander throughout the setup, though.
poroti:
Betty’s BBQ will in all likelihood be a stunning success.
Hope the weather’s good btw.
Arunta
You can add:
# dismantle the Government’s conflict of interest reforms of the finance industry
# dismantle the Government’s reforms of the banking industry
# change the Fair Work Act regulations
# dismantle the process for identifying marine national parks (which was bipartisan for around 13 years until Mr Abbott got to it).
Rod hagen
Of course Overland would have been aware of the collusion. I wonder if he is going to seek some recourse
Because it’s demonstrably true!
I love that you cite from the Labor platform on policy when it suits you (AS), but not when it doesn’t (ETS).
That is hypocrisy jv, nothing more.
Costello was responsible for these wasnt he? Thats what saved us from banks folding here
Rod,
He might be about to launch a fairly significant damages suit against the State Government. Could be millions imho.
* reverse Labor’s transparency laws on political donations (assuming they pass this parliament).
RodH – has Overland got any comeback for what happened to him?
Mod Lib,
The current Libs are against everything.
confessions
Biggest rains in more than a decade in Perth. Looking a bit better Saturday.Sadly after disasterous drought last year a number of farmers looking at a bumper harvest this year may suffer badly from too much rain. Sometimes you just can’t win.
victoria
It’s a funny thing. I never liked the look of “Sir Ken” – he seemed a bit weak-chinned to me. His subsequent behaviour has confirmed my instincts – although I think that Weston bloke has a lot to answer for. All done with the collusion of the (then) Lib Oppn.
How does Crikey close for maintenance, yet we can still post on William’s ‘Downtime’ thread?
ML
That news is four or five governments old.
You would have to read the article in today’s AFR on what Mr Hockey is up to on the QT to catch up on this one.
I don’t deny that, but the trouble for Gillard is that the Australian people currently agree with most of that disagreeing…
Greensborough Growler
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4NkkAQllfo
How US wealth is divided
__________________
From Prof Cole…a clever diagram which shows how wealth is divided up in the USA
http://www.juancole.com/2011/10/if-american-land-were-distributed-the-way-american-wealth-is.html
lizzzie,
Interesting questions.
How did the Libs find Weston as a candidate? Surely he past some sort of taste test? What conversations were had prior to the election with Baillieu and the senior echelons of the Liberal party.
Do you have a link for that please? I haven’t heard about it…
jv @ 2874
You outed yourself. Explained a lot.
fess,
1. It needs more coal to be put in
2. The boiler needs to be clean
3. Then push start the engine
Mr Overland may well be thanking his lucky stars that he does not have to have anything more to do with a crew of moral bankrupts.
Crikey maintenance?
The hamsters must be due for a grease and oil.
poroti,
Brilliant. I was thinking of that Marlon Brando scene. You must be psychotic. Thanks!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/thedrum/
Jonathan Holmes (from Media Watch) on the Today Tonight ‘report’ on refugees.
One is not amuse