Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Newspoll offers the government a mixed bag: its best result on two-party preferred since May, with the Coalition lead cut to 54-46 from 57-43 last time, but a 10-point net decline in support for the carbon tax since late July. The two-party shift is entirely down to a four point drop in the Coalition primary vote to 45 per cent, with Labor remaining stuck on 29 per cent. The Greens have leapt three points to 15 per cent, their best result since March. Julia Gillard is up on both approval (three pionts to 31 per cent) and disapproval (one point to 61 per cent), while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 34 per cent and up two on disapproval to 55 per cent. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 40-35 to 39-36. Support for the carbon tax is down four points to 32 per cent, with opposition up six to 59 per cent.

Redistributions:

• The federal redistribution for South Australia has been finalised, with no changes made to the draft proposals from August. The biggest changes are the transfer of about 10,000 areas in an area around Aberfoyle Park from Mayo to Boothby, and a redrawing of the northern end of Port Adelaide, which has gained 8000 voters around Burton from Wakefield and lost a projected 7200 voters in an area of rapid growth around Salisbury Park to Makin. None of the changes is too remarkable in terms of likely outcomes at the next election – Antony Green has as always calculated notional margins on the new boundaries.

• Antony also reviews the finalised state redistribution for Western Australia, where the main change on the draft is the reversal of a plan to move Mandurah from the South West upper house region to South Metropolitan.

• There’s also the finalised redistribution for the Australian Capital Territory Legislative Assembly, which on this occasion has proved a slightly less dull subject than usual.

Preselections:

• The Sun-Herald reports a “fractious meeting of the 17-member Liberal state executive” has narrowly endorsed a plan to hold preselection primaries in federal seats yet to be determined. According to Niki Savva on the ABC’s Insiders program, it is “only a decision that’s been made in principle and they might try it in one or two seats to see how it goes, and that’s something that will be negotiated between the NSW and the federal divisions”. The Sun-Herald report also says nominations for most Liberal-held seats will be open tomorrow (Monday) and settled by next month.

• With respect to the state’s Labor-held seats, the federal Liberal Party is fast-tracking preselections for eight key seats: Dobell, Robertson, Lindsay, Greenway, Reid, Banks, Parramatta and Eden-Monaro. The Sunday Telegraph reports “local builder Matthew Lusted” is the front-runner in Dobell, and that Tony Abbott has approached unsuccessful 2010 candidate David Gazard to try again in Eden-Monaro. The Telegraph has elsewhere reported that Ross Cameron, who held Parramatta from 1996 until his defeat until 2004, is contemplating a return to politics depending on the state of his business affairs. However, he is not interested in recovering his old seat, instead having his sights on Dobell, Robertson, Kingsford-Smith or the Senate. Cameron is encouraging Rachel Merton, daughter of former state Baulkham Hills MP Wayne Merton, to contest Parramatta. Di Bartok of the Parramatta Advertiser reports that the candidate from 2010, engineer Charles Camenzuli, is also interested in running, as are “Martin Zaiter, Brett Murray and George Goivos”.

• Michelle Harris of the Newcastle Herald reports Jaimie Abbott, a former media adviser to Paterson MP Bob Baldwin and RAAF reservist who has served in Afghanistan, has emerged as the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Newcastle.

• The NSW Nationals have changed their constitution to allow local party members to determine what kind of preselection they want, including the option of “community preselections” along the lines of US-style open primaries. A trial in the seat of Tamworth before the 2011 election attracted over 4000 voters and produced a winning candidate in Kevin Anderson.

• LNP campaign director James McGrath has confirmed his interest in succeeding Alex Somlyay as member for the federal Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax. McGrath has recently been embroiled in controversy over his role in paying former Labor candidate Robert Hough to compile dirt files on party figures. In 2008 McGrath was sacked from a job as adviser to London lord mayor Boris Johnson after making an allegedly racist comment about the city’s black community.

• The Burnie Advocate reports Glynn Williams, “Poppy Growers Tasmania president, legal practitioner and Hospice Care Association North West president”, has nominated for Liberal preselection in Braddon. It is presumed he will face opposition from Brett Whiteley, who lost his seat at last year’s state election. The Advocate reported on September 17 that an internal Liberal poll of 220 respondents conducted from August 22-25 had the Liberals leading 60-40 on two-party preferred.

Other polling:

• Market research company ReachTel has recently published two results from automated phone polls, the first targeting 850 respondents in Labor’s most marginal Queensland electorate of Moreton and published on October 12. The poll put incumbent Graham Perrett 54-46 behind on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 35 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the LNP and 9 per cent for the Greens. The poll also asked respondents about the carbon tax, finding 39 per cent support and 54 per cent opposition.

• The second ReachTel poll, published on October 19, was a national survey of 2428 which canvased three attitudinal questions. On the future of the present government, three options were offered: 50 per cent went for an immediate election, 36.5 per cent thought the Gillard government should serve out its term, and 14 per cent believed that Kevin Rudd should take over as Prime Minister. A question on same-sex marriage produced a very much more negative response than previous such inquiries from Essential Research and Westpoll: 43 per cent were in favour and 47 per cent were opposed. The Transport Workers Union’s industrial action against Qantas had 36 per cent support and 44 per cent opposition. Results on all three questions showed strong distinctions according to voting intention.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,048 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  6. [I know you don’t want to accept it, but can you point out where the term is not appropriate in the situation of sending 800 people (having arrived by boat) from Australia by Australian authorities to Malaysia?]

    JV,

    Using the word ‘rendition’ may or may not be appropriate, but it is outside it’s legal meaning. The High Court, by not using the word at all, makes that abundantly clear.

    Now, about this Newspoll…

  8. I posted on the last thread before I realised William had started a new thread. Very strange result with Coalition votes going directly to the Greens. JV will be happy.

  9. I helped with handing out “how to vote” in Eden Monaro at the last election and the Liberal people were scathing of Gazzard as an absolute dud of a candidate with no sign of basic social graces. If he is re preselected it will be by “outsiders” which will not help with recruitment of booth workers, already in short supply.

  10. From the other post:

    [813

    confessions

    Posted Tuesday, October 25, 2011 at 12:18 am | Permalink

    Wow, such intellectual superiority

    At least they are my opinions, and not just links to like-minded viewpoints.

    For those who missed my earlier posts….Here is a smattering of recent articles

    Yet not one which links directly to the Occupy Whatever websites in Australia. Why is that?

    a different perspective to those who want to maintain the status quo.

    Now you are verballing. I’ve been quite upfront that I have sympathy for anyone who wants to reduce socio-economic inequality, but am yet to see anything from the Occupy Whatever mob (in their own words btw, not their supporters cloistered in academia) which indicates this is what they are aiming for.

    I mean, if they were about reducing SES inequality, or corporate greed, they’d be railing against pokies, Big Gina and News ltd.
    ]

    Exacgly – they have no concrete cause it’s basically a pot luck of headlines straight out of Green Left Weekly.

  11. @DavidWH,

    Perhaps the Greens will eventually replace LNP ? 😛

    And LNP will become a minor party like the greens use to be…

    Wishful thinking perhaps?

  13. [I posted on the last thread before I realised William had started a new thread. Very strange result with Coalition votes going directly to the Greens. JV will be happy.]

    Unless of course one chunk of votes has gone from Coalition to Labor and another chunk has gone from Labor to the Greens.

  17. Either way the trend is left 🙂 That will do me for now. Given that it is so far out I don’t even know why I bother.

    On another note, it is raining really heavily in Perth ATM (I have a tin roof – it is quite loud). Good drenching rain. I hope the dams are filling.

  18. True William but then there may be a group of people like me who just aren’t comfortable with either of the majors and are just switching to the Greens while they wait and see how things develop over the next year or so. But we certainly seem to be in very uncertain times at present.

  19. Puffy(16) As usual you are right, if I wake up at the right time next time and get another narrowing like this I will say “Abbott is a first class loon” and Gweneth thank you.
    Sorry William

  20. Re Carbon Tax
    __________
    I recently heard from a tax consultant that he has some clients who want to know how they will pay the Carbon Tax next year ???????????

    Will it be paid with their normal assessment or do they have to pay it by some other means..perhaps by stamps or at the P>O

    Allowing for the stupidity of many of the the voters,it also shows how abysmal has been the Fed.Govt. selling 0f the whole issue…that such a basic issue could be misunderstood.
    Could Wayne and Julia sell ice in the Sahara…I doubt it !

    When next July shows them how little they will be effected will they change their minds ??? but don’t count on it !

  24. Deblonay the accountant should tell his clients that they will pay the tax embedde with their utility accounts and other bills that will be impacted by the carbon pricing mechanism.

  28. Franco, I think you tried to infer I was in favour of sexual slavery earlier. That would be quite a leap of logic, even by your standards of rhetoric. Did you actually mean that? Or were just trying to be offensive?

  29. Has it been reported yet who is the preferred leader? If Julia has gone past TA I will go back to bed happy and leave the site for the Western Australians and South Australians until the morning call

  32. [briefly

    Posted Tuesday, October 25, 2011 at 12:44 am | Permalink

    Franco, I think you tried to infer I was in favour of sexual slavery earlier. That would be quite a leap of logic, even by your standards of rhetoric. Did you actually mean that? Or were just trying to be offensive?
    ]

    Draw your own conclusions.

  34. [……Draw your own conclusions……]

    Oh, then I will give you the benefit of the doubt and suppose you were just being deliberately offensive.

  40. [briefly

    Posted Tuesday, October 25, 2011 at 12:47 am | Permalink

    ……Draw your own conclusions……

    Oh, then I will give you the benefit of the doubt and suppose you were just being deliberately offensive.
    ]

    Whatever……..

  42. I read, I listen to ABC Classic FM, I write, I work, I think, I walk……I watch 3-4 hours of TV a week…..occasionally the ABC…..serenity

  43. [Gweneth

    Posted Tuesday, October 25, 2011 at 12:49 am | Permalink

    Fulvio Bassendean is south west of Booragoon so you should be hoping it heads north east.
    ]

    Try the other direction 🙂

    Bassendean is in the Eastern Suburbs – Booragoon is in the south.

  45. PollBludger William Bowe
    Preferred PM: Abbott 39 (-1), Gillard 36 (+1) #newspoll #auspol blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/20…

  49. Seems that Newspoll is published everywhere but on the Australian’s website – hilarious.

    Let’s see if it gets there by the morning.

  50. This poll is a good sign for the Government. Combined with other recent poll results, it looks about right. Labor would be satisfied with its political year’s work if it can peg back a couple of points by Christmas, but must be glad already that the 60/40s seem to have passed!

    2012 will be much better for Labor – a bit like being a few points down at half time but with the help of a strong wind in the 2nd half. There seem to be some pretty cool heads in the Government – I expect they understand that with the heat and bluster of the moment around the carbon tax and 8 months to the start date, any positive messages are getting lost.

    But there will be an extensive Government-funded information campaign mid year, timed to coincide with the start of the cash flow! The polls in 12 months’ time are the ones we need to pay attention to. Along with the continuing rollout of the NBN, Abbott & Co will appear increasingly foolish. Its early days, but this is starting to look like a classic rope a dope strategy. Abbott’s frenzy will become an increasing liability and I expect that in 12 months’ time, Labor will have a handy poll lead.

    But as always only time will tell!!

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