Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition

The latest fortnightly Newspoll offers the government a mixed bag: its best result on two-party preferred since May, with the Coalition lead cut to 54-46 from 57-43 last time, but a 10-point net decline in support for the carbon tax since late July. The two-party shift is entirely down to a four point drop in the Coalition primary vote to 45 per cent, with Labor remaining stuck on 29 per cent. The Greens have leapt three points to 15 per cent, their best result since March. Julia Gillard is up on both approval (three pionts to 31 per cent) and disapproval (one point to 61 per cent), while Tony Abbott is down two on approval to 34 per cent and up two on disapproval to 55 per cent. Abbott’s lead as preferred prime minister is down from 40-35 to 39-36. Support for the carbon tax is down four points to 32 per cent, with opposition up six to 59 per cent.

Redistributions:

• The federal redistribution for South Australia has been finalised, with no changes made to the draft proposals from August. The biggest changes are the transfer of about 10,000 areas in an area around Aberfoyle Park from Mayo to Boothby, and a redrawing of the northern end of Port Adelaide, which has gained 8000 voters around Burton from Wakefield and lost a projected 7200 voters in an area of rapid growth around Salisbury Park to Makin. None of the changes is too remarkable in terms of likely outcomes at the next election – Antony Green has as always calculated notional margins on the new boundaries.

• Antony also reviews the finalised state redistribution for Western Australia, where the main change on the draft is the reversal of a plan to move Mandurah from the South West upper house region to South Metropolitan.

• There’s also the finalised redistribution for the Australian Capital Territory Legislative Assembly, which on this occasion has proved a slightly less dull subject than usual.

Preselections:

• The Sun-Herald reports a “fractious meeting of the 17-member Liberal state executive” has narrowly endorsed a plan to hold preselection primaries in federal seats yet to be determined. According to Niki Savva on the ABC’s Insiders program, it is “only a decision that’s been made in principle and they might try it in one or two seats to see how it goes, and that’s something that will be negotiated between the NSW and the federal divisions”. The Sun-Herald report also says nominations for most Liberal-held seats will be open tomorrow (Monday) and settled by next month.

• With respect to the state’s Labor-held seats, the federal Liberal Party is fast-tracking preselections for eight key seats: Dobell, Robertson, Lindsay, Greenway, Reid, Banks, Parramatta and Eden-Monaro. The Sunday Telegraph reports “local builder Matthew Lusted” is the front-runner in Dobell, and that Tony Abbott has approached unsuccessful 2010 candidate David Gazard to try again in Eden-Monaro. The Telegraph has elsewhere reported that Ross Cameron, who held Parramatta from 1996 until his defeat until 2004, is contemplating a return to politics depending on the state of his business affairs. However, he is not interested in recovering his old seat, instead having his sights on Dobell, Robertson, Kingsford-Smith or the Senate. Cameron is encouraging Rachel Merton, daughter of former state Baulkham Hills MP Wayne Merton, to contest Parramatta. Di Bartok of the Parramatta Advertiser reports that the candidate from 2010, engineer Charles Camenzuli, is also interested in running, as are “Martin Zaiter, Brett Murray and George Goivos”.

• Michelle Harris of the Newcastle Herald reports Jaimie Abbott, a former media adviser to Paterson MP Bob Baldwin and RAAF reservist who has served in Afghanistan, has emerged as the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Newcastle.

• The NSW Nationals have changed their constitution to allow local party members to determine what kind of preselection they want, including the option of “community preselections” along the lines of US-style open primaries. A trial in the seat of Tamworth before the 2011 election attracted over 4000 voters and produced a winning candidate in Kevin Anderson.

• LNP campaign director James McGrath has confirmed his interest in succeeding Alex Somlyay as member for the federal Sunshine Coast seat of Fairfax. McGrath has recently been embroiled in controversy over his role in paying former Labor candidate Robert Hough to compile dirt files on party figures. In 2008 McGrath was sacked from a job as adviser to London lord mayor Boris Johnson after making an allegedly racist comment about the city’s black community.

• The Burnie Advocate reports Glynn Williams, “Poppy Growers Tasmania president, legal practitioner and Hospice Care Association North West president”, has nominated for Liberal preselection in Braddon. It is presumed he will face opposition from Brett Whiteley, who lost his seat at last year’s state election. The Advocate reported on September 17 that an internal Liberal poll of 220 respondents conducted from August 22-25 had the Liberals leading 60-40 on two-party preferred.

Other polling:

• Market research company ReachTel has recently published two results from automated phone polls, the first targeting 850 respondents in Labor’s most marginal Queensland electorate of Moreton and published on October 12. The poll put incumbent Graham Perrett 54-46 behind on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 35 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the LNP and 9 per cent for the Greens. The poll also asked respondents about the carbon tax, finding 39 per cent support and 54 per cent opposition.

• The second ReachTel poll, published on October 19, was a national survey of 2428 which canvased three attitudinal questions. On the future of the present government, three options were offered: 50 per cent went for an immediate election, 36.5 per cent thought the Gillard government should serve out its term, and 14 per cent believed that Kevin Rudd should take over as Prime Minister. A question on same-sex marriage produced a very much more negative response than previous such inquiries from Essential Research and Westpoll: 43 per cent were in favour and 47 per cent were opposed. The Transport Workers Union’s industrial action against Qantas had 36 per cent support and 44 per cent opposition. Results on all three questions showed strong distinctions according to voting intention.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,048 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  2. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    @
    @TurnbullMalcolm Malcolm, how come nobody has asked you about the pokies. Obviously, you are not a leadership material #auspol
    10 seconds ago

  5. [jv – you wouldn’t like Malcolm’s policy on AS. When he was leader he absolutely panned Kevin Rudd for lightening the policy and he was as tough as Howard and Abbott on it. No leftie sentiment there. On gay marriage he has said he believes in the status quo. Will he vote for it – not while he is in Shadow Cabinet. The current ETS/CT policy – no vote from Turnbull for it. NBN – too socialistic for Malcolm and has to be sold off to commercial interests.
    Where are the leftie decisions there.]

    The (spurious for the reasons you outline) ‘Turnbull is more left-wing than Labor’ argument isn’t really to claim Turnbull is some lefty, its more yet another way of pushing the same old ‘Labor is too right-wing these days’ story.

  16. confessions
    [And yet you refuse to acknowledge Labor’s consistent committent to pricing carbon. That’s the hypocrisy I was talking about.
    You can’t have it both ways, jv.]

    Not sure what you’re talking about. It’s Labor’s policy hypocrisy, not mine. My position on both carbon and asylum seekers has been and remains clear, consistent and emphatic.

    No-one but a loyal Rightariat member could say Labor has demonstrated a ‘consistent commitment to pricing carbon’. Everyone else acknowledges that the party shelved the issue last year. It was part of clearing the decks of issues too controversial for the Lindsay test, per Bitar’s decree. Now it has been forced to do something this term which it did not intend at the election – especially this good, as the Greens and indies have ensured.

    The leadership takes up or not whatever it wants from the policy platform; just as the asylum seeker policy of the leadership has nothing to do with the policy in the platform.

    There is clear inconsistency between the ALP platform and what the leadership does on the issues of carbon and asylum seekers, but I fail to see how that makes me a hypocrite. I’m not a party leader.

  19. Hey, we had a liberal government from 1983-1996 as well so why not another liberal government with an ALP Prime Minister?

    Couldn’t disagree with any of that, ML (though I’d almost be inclined to replace the “l”s with an “L” 😉 ) Just think how lucky Mod L’s are! THose of us who want a Labor government have to vote Green these days! 😉

  24. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Abbott tried gate crash CHOGm and he doesnt even know Mandarin is China national language, he thought it was a duck #auspol
    6 seconds ago

  29. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    Australia has 3 speed economy. The EU has 17 plus a few hangerons. One is only there for the bunga bunga parties. no wonder they are fucked
    2 minutes ago

  30. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    @
    @TurnbullMalcolm [Why is Ancient History more popular in nsw schools than modern?] – Tony Abbott, he is ancient. #auspol
    1 minute ago

  34. abbott in perth,said barnett was very restrained and diplomatic by only mentioning the mining tax , he’s a total disgrace to the nation .

  35. Morning all. The European deal is much better than no deal at all, and forces banks to accept some of the consequences of their own actions, but not all. It is also still not clear how Italy and Greece will meet their commitments under the deal. The show goes on.

  38. There’s never any let up when the jurnalists are denied their pet story, is there?

    The Glums are all over the newspapers and the airwaves telling us how rotten, fragile and doomed the European deal is.

    Couldn’t we have just ONE day free of misery gutsers like them? Couldn’t we celebrate that the Euros have managed to cobble something together… something being maybe (the “hope” angle) better than “nothing”?

    Nope. No let up.

    Then there’s this miserable bastard…

    [Australia’s property market is adrift — and slowly sinking.

    Leaks are springing up all over the ship and the situation looks worrying enough that even preternaturally optimistic spruikers are now finding it hard to ignore the rising waters.

    But that’s not to say the industry isn’t still desperately trying to put a brave face on.

    The latest siren call is that the Reserve Bank is poised to throw the market a rate cut lifeline come Melbourne Cup Day.

    … the RBA cuts the rate next month its most likely effect on the property market will be zilch to negligible
    …
    Relying on a rate cut — even a couple of rate cuts — to right the listing market is just another phantom hope.

    http://smh.domain.com.au/real-estate-news/blogs/domain-investor-centre-blog/a-rate-cut-wont-rescue-the-market-20111026-1mjra.html%5D

  39. Finally we have Shanahan busily constructing a new gibbet upon which he intends to hang Gillard.

    The new hoop she has to jump through is the Foreign Affairs Hoop.

    It seems unless she’s a combination of Winston Churchill, Doc Evatt, Kevin Rudd and Sir Paul Hasluck she won’t make Shanahan’s grade, whereupon he can then rouyndly condemn her as a naif in Foreign Affairs and unfit to be Prime Minister (all over again).

    La Stupenda manages to turn CHOGM into Rudd’s triumphal return with a hideous example of “What if?”. She is examining belly-fluff again:

    [Gillard’s the organised one,
    but Rudd grabs the chance to strut
    The argument could run: install Rudd in the leadership early next year and have an election before the pokies legislation comes to a crunch. Few would think the government itself would be saved but quite a number might believe their own seats could be.

    Rudd might have been disorganised in style of government, but he sure knows how to run a campaign – whether a campaign for office in 2007 or, as we’re seeing now, a bid to get back the job from which he was unceremoniously ousted.

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/gillards-the-organised-one-but-rudd-grabs-chance-to-strut-20111027-1mm1b.html#ixzz1c1GE8guL%5D

    “Could, could, could”… typical Grattan counting angels on the head of a pin.

    She starts out by saying Gillard is doing a demonstrably good, organized job, far better than Rudd ever did and then condemns her for it anyway.

    What a bitch!

    Nasty. Nasty. Nasty today.

    And all because the government scored a few extra percentage points in the Newspoll.

  40. … And don’t get me talking about Abbott’s and Barnett’s grandstanding “Look at moi” rubbish…

    The naffness of these two, introducing local domestic issues into an international conference (and even to the Queen) is beyond the pale.

    Yet they claim to be the true guardians of etiquette, convention and the constitution.

    Even Turnbull is trying to involve the Queen in our local goings-on by citing s.59 – in effect read as a right for the monarch to intervene in our sovereign governance on the basis of absolute power not exercised since James-II…

    You can’t make this stuff up.

    When a Liberal wants something, EVERYTHING gets trashed. They don’t care who they humiliate (including themselves) in the process.

  41. I have to say that Laura Tingle article is a call to arms for journalists to start doing their job for a change.

    “But if you are looking for a metaphor for Abbott and his shambolic front bench, you quickly find yourself dealing in metaphors beyond the unattractive image of an emperor with no clothes.

    Monty Python’s King Arthur in his chain mail and ill-fitting crown, riding an imaginary horse while porters walk behind him banging coconut shells together is more the ticket.”

    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/labor_hopeless_abbott_hollow_man_iIzzHU5YM1A546LnB9PbAO

    Good stuff Laura. It reads like she’s had a brain snap and can’t stand the bullshit anymore.

  42. Bill, she’s keeping it up

    [mrumens Marian Rumens
    I’ve never head such crap Michelle Grattan is spouting with Fran Kellyk. Kevin Rudd will want to go to election so he’s quiet on pokies FGS
    37 minutes ago]

  44. There seems to be a few gremlins with the site this morning. I didn’t mean to post the above link without comment but it had a mind of its own.

    Fran & Michelle were a bit over the top in their segment this morning re. the former PM’s reticence about endorsing the Government’s pokies’ policy.

    However, one of them did add the rider that Mr. Rudd has previously made a number of public statements about his opposition to them.

    As said previously, I do hope the Government soon starts an advertising campaign to counter the misinformation of the vested interests.

  45. Good morning, Bludgers.

    Didn’t expect PB to be back online so early.

    Ta Leroy, BB. Great article from Laura.

    So let me try to get this straight now:

    Fairfax (AFR + Lenore + Birmingham + a few others) – Gillard to stay; Abbott to cop some interrogation re … just about everything except policies (cos he ain’t got none)

    Fairfax (Age, SMH): current meme for most opinionistas – Gillard dead in the water; Ruddstoration (rest, with Laura T)

    The Paywalled One (aka OO): going a bit off Abbott; otherwise Creanstoration! Or Shorten Coup (er, maybe not), or Smith, or …. Never say “never” to the Return of the King over the Wate… er, Ruddstoration. PS: Don’t Mention Le Combet!

    BTW, the sight of La Grattan glowering like the Gorgon on a worse-than-usual Bad Hair Day behind the Prime Minister (looking glam in an orange jacket) was enough to curdle my recently consumed tomato soup. No good trying to hog the cam, Michelle, if all you do is glare nastily over the PM’s shoulder at the lens.

    PS: no edit function showing yet, so pls excuse mad eye errors.

  46. Nice work GG, four shots in a row.

    While you’re re-loading the .450 nitro-express rifle, I’ll have a go.

    Grattan reckons Kev wants the leadership, then an election (in that order) eh?

    She’s clearly been puffing away at Tom Bombadil’s famous Withywillow Weed again.

    Sure he wants he wants the leadership.

    That’s why he’s consistently expressed his unreserved support for Gillard.

    Sure he wants an election.

    They gave him too much anaesthetic during that heart valve op and snookered his survival instinct. He’s got a death wish.

    So has the rest of the Labor Party.

    They all want an immediate election on 55/45 pr 54/46 polling numbers. They’re tired of Government and the perks of ofice and just want to go into Opposition and wreck the place, like Tone has. It’s much more fun.

    And Fairfax pay this fool?

  47. It would seem that the elephant in the room for Labor, the Rudd factor, will just not go away, not only for mischief-making journalists, but also for some PBers here.

    It seems apparent that Rudd still has the Field Marshall’s baton on his knapsack – as do many current politicians on both sides – and who can blame him for this?

    Whether progressive supporters like it or not, his treatment when replaced was shabby and despite all the protestations in the world about his arrogant manner, his unwillingness to listen, and his many other faults, he was still the PM, still had Labor ahead in the polls something like 52-48 and was, as I understand it, on the verge of sorting out the mess he had made for himself with the former so called “mining tax”.

    The axing of him was efficiently done in that while his colleagues endorsed him and there was not a protracted struggle to replace him, many in the wider community – albeit likely conservative supporters, felt cheated that they, having “created” the opportunity for Rudd in 2007, did not have the chance to decide, one way or the other, that he should stay at the next election.

    On top of all this there is the Queensland factor – something nobody in the rest of Australia can really understand, but certainly, being a Queenslander, Rudd was a favoured home town boy, such to the extent that after the cold winter of opinion polls, it was touted that he would have been the only Labor member left standing “if a poll were held now” – that is, a few months ago.

    The point of all this, is the Labor just has to get used to this “leadership” speculation which is likely to continue right up to the next election. On the one hand, it gives journalists something to right about, and, until the real acid is turned on Abbott it gives the conservatives just enough wriggle room to focus on the government rather than themselves.

    Whether we progressive voters like it or not – and I hasten to add I am a JG supporter – to a more dispassionate outsider, JG’s role had the look of Lady McBeth in Rudd’s downfall.

    It is just as well as Rudd – all credit to him – does not want to do anything to progress Abbott to the Lodge, that Rudd has copped what he has, has still managed to keep on task and smiling, and is still there.

    The price though is that he provides grist for the mill of the rumour-mongers and will continue to do so.

  49. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/top-cops-most-dangerous-adversary/story-e6frg6z6-1226178826852

    Not behind the paywall.

    [Top cop’s most dangerous adversary
    BY: CAMERON STEWART, ASSOCIATE EDITOR From: The Australian October 28, 2011 12:00AM

    BY the time Simon Overland resigned as chief commissioner of Victoria Police in June, he knew he had garnered some powerful enemies. The state government, the Police Association, the media and his former deputy Ken Jones were among those who seemed happy to see the back of the controversial police chief.

    But could Overland have imagined that arguably his deadliest adversary was a modestly ranked detective leading senior constable working as a police adviser in the office of Police Minister Peter Ryan?]

    More in the article

  50. This is hilarious – Paul Barry doesn’t miss – until the thought that this be-cassocked tool has power over many dependent; intellectually challenged; and emotionally inadequate in our midst. They vote too:
    [George Pell believes in miracles but says we need more “scientific evidence” to believe in man-made global warming http://j.mp/vJLZbL ]

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