Morgan: 57-43 to Coalition

The headline figure might not look anything to write home about, but the latest Morgan face-to-face poll offers Labor a relatively encouraging result: their primary vote is up 3.5 per cent on the previous fortnight to 35.5 per cent, their best result since May. The Coalition is down 1.5 per cent to 46.5 per cent and the Greens one to 10 per cent. To any Labor supporters who might feel like reaching for the champagne bottle, it has to be said that due caution is required for any poll which is half conducted over a long weekend that included grand finals for both major football codes.

Using the industry standard measure of allocating minor party preferences as per the result of the previous election, the Coalition lead is down from 55.5-54.5 to 53.5-46.5, which is only Labor’s best result since late July and early August (when consecutive polls had their primary vote at 34.5 per cent). The bad headline figure for Labor is a result of the highly idiosyncratic results Morgan is getting on respondent-allocated preferences. This poll has nearly 60 per cent of minor party and independent voters directing preferences to the Coalition, a result without any precedent since at least the mid-1990s. The other pollster that publishes respondent-allocated figures, Nielsen, has also shown Labor’s preference share declining since the 2010 election, but not to anything like the same degree.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,285 comments on “Morgan: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. [(And its kinda interesting how Gillard’s unwillingness to criticise people she formerly worked with is seen as a negative sometimes.)]

    Well this is the same kind of environment where making a swift move to change leaders is a betrayal etc. but allegedly spending months, undermining and leaking to gain the leadership is noble.

  2. http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/latest/10421155/alp-to-field-former-editor-in-clarence/

    [ALP to field former editor in Clarence
    AAP October 7, 2011, 1:58 pm

    A former newspaper editor is to stand as Country Labor’s candidate in the upcoming Clarence by-election in NSW.

    Peter Ellem, the former editor of the Daily Examiner and a lifelong Clarence resident, was named on Friday as the official candidate for the seat by NSW opposition leader John Robertson.]

    More in the article

  4. Boerwar

    [‘…winning for us is to put the Afghans in the best position to win this war themselves.]

    Ah the genius of the Molan. Now just how did Tricky Dickies “Vietnamisation” of the Vietnam War turn out ? I think this cartoon is appropriate.

  6. http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-national/australia-in-enviable-position-imf-20111007-1ld68.html

    [Australia in ‘enviable’ position: IMF
    Colin Brinsden, AAP Economics Correspondent
    October 7, 2011 – 3:19PM

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that recent global financial market volatility has increased uncertainty over Australia’s near-term economic outlook, but it starts from an “enviable position”.

    In its annual report on Australia released on Friday, the Washington-based institution said the key downside risk to the outlook was that the global recovery stalled or Asian growth faltered in the near term, affecting demand for commodities.

    ……………….

    Risks to the outlook aside, the IMF said Australia’s performance since the onset of the global financial crisis had been enviable, being one of a handful of economies to avoid a recession.

    This was attributed to the nation’s healthy banking system, a flexible exchange rate, and robust demand for commodities from Asia, especially China.

    Based on its current expectations, the economy will grow by almost two per cent in 2011 and accelerate by 3.3 per cent in 2012 on the back of strong demand for commodities and a sharp rise in mining investment.

    For 2013, the IMF expects growth of 3.4 per cent and then 3.3 per cent annually out to 2016, supported by a fast growing Asia, fuelling construction of several large iron ore and LNG projects which could raise private business investment to 50-year highs in coming years.

    The unemployment rate should also gradually fall to 4.75 per cent by 2012.]

    More in the article

  11. poroti

    camel classic!

    [The fantasy talk has been hilarious.]

    What must have stung is that a new group has been able to form during the war and that it has the capability of penetrating, inter alia, penetrating Kabul security and doing some major political damage with targetted assassinations.

    No wonder Mr Mullen criticisied the Pakistan Government.

  12. Blossom,

    Family’s been visiting for the last three days. Finished up with dinner for six adults and six under tens last night. Daughter and I cooked a pork curry with all the usual side dishes. Lamb cutlets for the kids. They left late this morning.

  21. Off soon over the road to the oval this evening for the (summer) monthly Community Family Dinner. We usually get 60 to 70 people over there for a good meal, a few sherberts and a good chat. The kids go mad on the oval.

  23. [William,

    A question. Might even be a psephological one. Why would a public holiday (in some states) favour the ALP and not the Liberals?]

    Because according to Bob Ellis, “only the ill, the old, the loveless, the friendless and mad are at home”, which produces a huge skew towards the Liberals. And everything ever said by Bob Ellis (last seen predicting Labor would hang on at the NSW election) is 100 per cent ass-backwards wrong.

  26. Okay, to entertain the question more seriously. Long weekends are an occasion for people to travel away from their homes, especially if they are on high incomes. This exacerbates the problem Roy Morgan has at the best of times: its face-to-face methodology does not allow it to call back when people aren’t home until they get a response.

  27. Little Black Duck Menu
    ________________
    Why on earth do some posters tell about what they will have for dinner
    Talk about off-topic !
    ..and I don’t find the news that the kids ate cutlets all that riveting anyway

    There are cooking blogs after all
    perhaps blog there

  28. [William Bowe

    Posted Friday, October 7, 2011 at 5:49 pm | Permalink

    William,

    A question. Might even be a psephological one. Why would a public holiday (in some states) favour the ALP and not the Liberals?

    Because according to Bob Ellis, “only the ill, the old, the loveless, the friendless and mad are at home”, which produces a huge skew towards the Liberals. And everything ever said by Bob Ellis (last seen predicting Labor would hang on at the NSW election) is 100 per cent ass-backwards wrong
    ]

    I disagree.

    Long Weekends see people getting a life and going away from home – and thus not being able to be polled.

    Note that in WA the Long Weekend has been shifted to the 28th of Oct cos of CHOGM.

  29. William: but that was my point from earlier in the thread.

    I don’t understand why the PV would change so dramatically at a time that people are focussed on anything BUT politics unless there is something more significant afoot.

    I guess time will tell, but judging from the changed mood in the media as well as signs of scratchiness in the Opposition, I suspect things are starting to trend the government’s way.

  32. DL, the point is that the PV might not have changed dramatically. It’s just that a big chunk of people who might have said they would have voted Liberal were not available to be polled.

  35. deblonay @ 153

    [That Guardian report placed average household wealth for Britain’s top ten percent at the equivalent of $1.3-million-U.S. dollars compared to the equivalent of $13,531 for Britain’s poorest.]

    I am not sure of the statistical handling in that article. For example, I know of at least five places were people are living, or have lived rough around here. At an average of 55 frosts per annum, rough living is the genuine article.

    I doubt whether people living rough around here would have a ‘household wealth’ of more than around the $20 you might get for a second-hand tent.

  36. Ah, I get you.

    The old “rich Liberal-voting people go away for the long weekend and the poor Labor-voting people stay at home” scenario. 😉

    Either way, as I said before, we will find out once Newspoll and Nielsen are in. If they all show a shift then TEH NARROWING IS ON!!!

    😀

  37. [Blossom,

    Betcha!]

    It sounds better than my week so far, although Monday was pretty entertaining. Apparent from that, I have just been working on my bloody history assignment.

  39. “the ill, the old, the loveless, the friendless and mad”. For a minute there I thought you meant Bob Ellis, William. Actually for more than a minute.

  40. Fine Little Black Duck…

    but anyone who wanted to know what you had for dinner …must have had little else to occupy their mind,,(the curry sounds OK though!)

  41. [Yes, but it would have resulted in people (especially affluent, Liberal-voting people) going away for the entire long weekend.]

    Lucky bastards.

  42. Apple: when there is a public holiday on the Monday people tend to take the opportunity to return home form holidays at their leisure, as well as to travel further afield.

  43. deblonay

    [Little Black Duck Menu
    ________________
    Why on earth do some posters tell about what they will have for dinner
    Talk about off-topic !
    ..and I don’t find the news that the kids ate cutlets all that riveting anyway

    There are cooking blogs after all
    perhaps blog there]

    In politics there are various culinary markers which are also political markers. For example, PTMD is indicating that he is an elite duck. With many households battling with killer COL concerns, PTMD is demonstrating an insouciance by feeding ducklings lamb cutlets.

    This provides a ‘let them eat cake’ insight into PTMD’s stance on various political issues.

    Besides, Mr Bowe has indicated that after a decent interval of psephologising following his introduction to a new string of posts, he will allow a certain latitude as long as it is free from vile personal abuse of other posters.

  45. [Melissa Clarke on Capital Hill displaying her true blue colours banging on and on about Labor leadership.]

    BK – Was there anything about policy at all? Who was on with her please?

  46. Can anyone explain to me why Morgan would poll 14yr olds on who they would vote for if there was an election today, seems incredibly stupid if you ask me. They currently don’t vote and if an election was to be held this weekend on in the next two years they would still not vote and yet they can be polled as if they would.

  47. On the public holiday principle favoring Labor then Newspoll this weekend should be better for Labor because all the private school types will be off to NZ this weekend to watch the Wallabies beat SA in the union.

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