The headline figure might not look anything to write home about, but the latest Morgan face-to-face poll offers Labor a relatively encouraging result: their primary vote is up 3.5 per cent on the previous fortnight to 35.5 per cent, their best result since May. The Coalition is down 1.5 per cent to 46.5 per cent and the Greens one to 10 per cent. To any Labor supporters who might feel like reaching for the champagne bottle, it has to be said that due caution is required for any poll which is half conducted over a long weekend that included grand finals for both major football codes.
Using the industry standard measure of allocating minor party preferences as per the result of the previous election, the Coalition lead is down from 55.5-54.5 to 53.5-46.5, which is only Labor’s best result since late July and early August (when consecutive polls had their primary vote at 34.5 per cent). The bad headline figure for Labor is a result of the highly idiosyncratic results Morgan is getting on respondent-allocated preferences. This poll has nearly 60 per cent of minor party and independent voters directing preferences to the Coalition, a result without any precedent since at least the mid-1990s. The other pollster that publishes respondent-allocated figures, Nielsen, has also shown Labor’s preference share declining since the 2010 election, but not to anything like the same degree.
[So, my question to Bludgers is: when Singo (if it is indeed Singo who still owns the house) comes around to collect the pooch, what do I say to him?]
You say nuffink! You let Cossie tear the hide out of the old codger and then let Bob finish him off.
BTW – I thought Singleton sold it years ago – gorgeous place tho. Does it still have the high fence?
Apple Blossom @ 92
If your comment at 89 is anything to go by, you are not aware of what happens to the revenue collected by the Carbon Tax!
Your statement: “I understand that this tax is supposedly going towards helping businesses fund alternative energy, but are the general public well aware of that?” is quite erroneous.
Much of it will fund compensation to individuals through raising the tax threshold and social security payments.
Some will go to assist ‘trade exposed industries’ (exporters and import competing industries).
A relatively small amount will go toward renewable energy.
[Probably not, if they read the booklet sent to them, the polls would be better than they are, people are political SLACKERS when it comes to the detail in legislation.]
As dorky as this may sound, I actually read the booklet about the carbon tax. Usually I never read flyers and booklets that land in my letterbox.
Singo, when are you gunna give us a fair go?
[And didn’t Cud Chewer do a damn good job!]
He did – knowledgeable about NBN and cogent in his arguments. Also would give him a high mark for patience dealing with a wilfully thick opponent.
Bushfire Bill
[Bit of a Newsflash here….So, my question to Bludgers is: when Singo (if it is indeed Singo who still owns the house) comes around to collect the pooch, what do I say to him?]
What to say ? Well that will depend on whether or not you greet him at the door sporting your ripped bodice 🙂
AP
READ 102
[If your comment at 89 is anything to go by, you are not aware of what happens to the revenue collected by the Carbon Tax!
Your statement: “I understand that this tax is supposedly going towards helping businesses fund alternative energy, but are the general public well aware of that?” is quite erroneous.
Much of it will fund compensation to individuals through raising the tax threshold and social security payments.
Some will go to assist ‘trade exposed industries’ (exporters and import competing industries).
A relatively small amount will go toward renewable energy.]
I am aware that the money also funds individuals and social security payments etc, I was just using one example of the tax. I’m pretty sure money towards businesses to help them fund alternative energy was apart of the plan.
Two views on Afghan War
____________________
Reading the brilliant Age article today on the Afghan war,in which expert Prof Amin Siecel from ANU paints a dire picture of the situation…it was in total conflict with the strange statement from Foreign Minister Smith(which must have been written from him in the Pentagon)
Smith usually fairly lucid seemed ill at ease mouthing bullshit with a very Washington sound to it.
Why do he and Julia go on which what every expert says is nonsense .
Amin Seicel,an expert say the US is in a worst position than even the Russian were in 1990…they have now lost control of Kabul itself…and Seicel ,himself an Afghani,but long resident in Canberra has all the links which give him much information…better one suspects than Smith’s sources.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/battle-shifts-as-insurgents-target-kabul-20111006-1lbku.html
It was rather nice to read ari’s interpretation of Morgan. 53/47_
victoria @ 66
[Latika Bourke
@latikambourke
Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd says Richo is taking hundreds of thousands of dollars in salary to bag the Labor Party]
Mr Rudd does not like it at all that Mr Richardson has linked him to the leaking which nearly destroyed Labor in the last election.
[It was rather nice to read ari’s interpretation of Morgan. 53/47_]
Thought the post said 57/ 43?
Prof Seicel(ANU) on Afghanistan
_______________________\
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/battle-shifts-as-insurgents-target-kabul-20111006-1lbku.html
Expert Seicel(of Afghan origin and resident in ANU for many years paints) a bleak picture of the situation there.
He gives a very different view entirely from Foreign Minister Smith a few days ago,who while often lucid,must in his statement have been reading from a “Happy Days” document from the Pentagon..”Victory ahead,blah.blah.blah”..and the usually lying US crap.(see last days of Saigon for an example)
When will Smith and Gillard listen to the expertS and get our troops out
Why do sensible politicians Brown-nose the boys in the Pentagon,when they are now scorned by many US writers
Leroy and jachol. It think we. Will get back 6 weeks ago, i thought may be not but I think we can
Somthing funny is going on though last night J G. Sand mr swan looking very pleased re the sumitt
I was waiting. For sarcasm re the media but ig didn’t come
PTMD
[Robert Manne is very thorough.
http://www.themonthly.com.au/blog-out-control-robert-manne-4031%5D
A must read for anyone who has been following the freedom of speech debate.
This complements nicely a post I wrote about the article by Mr David Kemp on freedom of speech in ‘The Australian’. Mr Kemp wrote that free speech was excellent and if people were in error then others could refute the errors.
Just to reiterate briefly, my view is that if you don’t own the media you have limited capacity to refute errors. If you do own the media, you can perpetuate whatever set of errors happens to suit you.
‘The Australian’ does not seem to realise that it is conducting a case study exercise in demonstrating comprehensively the risks of and to free speech where MSM ownership is heavily concentrated, and where some writers simply do not gain access.
But perhaps they are hypocrites as well as being wrong-headed?
Apple b. Go back and read first page ari is quite famous around here, its somthing to do with preferences ari al so has his own web page
deblonay,
I am guessing Gillard is keeping the troops in Afghanistan for the sake of alliance and trying to fix the insurgency problem there. Fixing insurgency will take decades.
^
I guess the above is a different side of the argument, some may argue that the troops are there for revenge purposes, others say it’s to fix insurgency.
Bloody hell!
Latham on The Contrarians.
And the first subject?
The Ruddstoration.
[ I don’t think 57-43 is that great, but suppose, it could be worse. Perhaps now isn’t the right time for a Carbon Tax ]
Extending that logic do you think it means people are ready for a ‘direct action plan’ that will cost twice as much and have zero compensation?
Deblonay
[Prof Seicel(ANU) on Afghanistan]
That would be Mr Amin Saikal.
[BTW – I thought Singleton sold it years ago – gorgeous place tho. Does it still have the high fence?]
Yep. We walk the dogs past there a lot and drool. Lovely place. Perfect Fed mansion (of the large, rambling, one-storey variety). Big grounds, manicured lawns etc. etc. Huge property. Very private.
PAAPTSEF,
What ‘direct action plan’? It doesn’t really matter what they do, it will be somewhat risky and controversial. I’m not against the tax, I was just trying to find a reason why Gillard isn’t that popular at the moment.
Bushfire Bill,
How many marriages has Singo had in the last few years. Ownership could have been redirected to any of his ex-mrs!
[ What ‘direct action plan’ ]
The alternative carbon reduction policy held by the people who are currently in front in the polls.
[
Apple Blossom
Posted Friday, October 7, 2011 at 4:04 pm | Permalink
Keep that up, and NOTHING will ever be done about IT!.
I just saying (in my opinion) due to her low popularity, a tax on carbon may not be necessary right now. I understand that this tax is supposedly going towards helping businesses fund alternative energy, but are the general public well aware of that?
]
What is the point of being in power if you get nothing done???
The general public will know exactly what is going on when it actually comes in and they can see it. Some simpletons will be surprised it isn’t applied to their wages, others will be surprised to find they are better off, and the whole country will notice when the sky doesn’t fall in.
[Bloody hell!
Latham on The Contrarians.
And the first subject?
The Ruddstoration.]
Of course. I’m guessing he’s all for it because Rudd’s had kids at least? 😉
Cuppa @ 105
I hope I also landed a few blows.
“wilfully thick” ➡ aka “Liberal”
Our military presence is, and always was, our token gesture in support of the US-Aus alliance. It’s paying the dues for our ‘special relationship’ with the US. I know Julia Gillard (and Kevin Rudd before her) talk about staying until the mission is done, but Australia is simply showing moral support at this point – any on-the-ground mission (training or what have you) is irrelevant.
I don’t think that’s wrong per se – unlike Iraq I think it was valid for us to provide unqualified support for the US in Afghanistan. Perhaps without the Iraq misadventure the situation in Afghanistan might have been stabilized and improved years ago. Still, we are there to support the US, and while the US remains there in force we will have troops on the ground – that’s just the nature of our relationship. It is truly a shame that we pay in blood. I don’t think the Australian government has much choice in the matter, which is why there’s no dissent from the opposition.
Boerwar
I think you are on the money. Rudd did not like Richo pointing that out. Perhaps it was Richo’s way of sending Rudd a message.
[We walk the dogs past there a lot and drool. Lovely place. Perfect Fed mansion ]
I just love those Federation homes around there. The principal of the firm I worked for in Penno bought his block in Beecroft just after the war when the place was full of orchards of Granny Smith applies. House and block cost $600 all up. On your side of Beecroft but on verge of Cheltenham – down behind bottle shop not far from Singo’s as I remember it.
[What is the point of being in power if you get nothing done???
The general public will know exactly what is going on when it actually comes in and they can see it. Some simpletons will be surprised it isn’t applied to their wages, others will be surprised to find they are better off, and the whole country will notice when the sky doesn’t fall in.]
I couldn’t care less if they introduced the tax or not, it doesn’t bother me. I get taxed next to nothing anyway. I was just trying to say that the tax is one of the reasons why she isn’t doing that well in the polls. More or less, I think some people are annoyed because she stated that there would not be a carbon tax and now they’re introducing one. Some people are just going to vote against her on the basis of the tax.
45 countries have troops in Afghanistan.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Afghanistan_(2001%E2%80%93present)
Hi Ducky,
How are you? Haven’t heard from you much lately.
rishane – Latham always hated Kev but then Latham hated mostly everyone in his Party going by the tantrums he exhibited after he resigned. He’s a strange fellow.
I still hear the story from old Labor blokes about Latham’s father’s friends at the local Pub who put in every week from their paypackets for his Uni expenses. The story goes that he forgot to show appreciation for that and barely bothered to speak to them once he graduated. Like Abbott, I think Mark was a spoilt Mummy’s boy surrounded by sisters. Both are bullies and act like spoilt kids.
Bemused,
Strange guy, the old ML. Although regularly made to look a fool, he keeps coming back for more. He must think the Liberal “cause” – that being the WorkChoices erosion of employees’ living standards, and the rundown of the public sector – is worth his serial personal humiliation. … Pity he doesn’t find a more constructive hobby.
I was thinking something alone the lines of
[“Sell 2GB, put the Parrot in a chaff bag with a brick and two starving ferrets in it, then turf him over the side of your boganish floating gin palace… or the dog gets it.”]
Suggestions along these lines, please? Or no pikkies of me sans bodice, and definitely no packet of No Frills Fun Pretzels.
Youse have been warned.
[… and definitely no packet of No Frills Fun Pretzels.]
* Family size.
[Of course. I’m guessing he’s all for it because Rudd’s had kids at least? ]
It would prove he is insincere if he sides with the guy who undermined his leadership against the woman who actually stood by him and even refused to criticise him after he left.
Gov Perry Presidential Hopeful… says that God commands us to support Israel
_________________________________________________________
He hopes to get the votes of the Jews and the fundamentalists Christians.. in one fell swoop
[$600 all up. ]
BB – I meant 600 pounds for land and house.
Re afghanistan
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/battle-shifts-as-insurgents-target-kabul-20111006-1lbku.html
Today is the 10th Anniversary of the start of the Aghanistan War.
‘The Australian’ has published an article by Mr Jim Molan entitled ‘We can still win the Afghan War but we are being led by donkeys.’ Mr Molan’s claim to fame is that he was chief of operations of the multinational force in Iraq in 2004-05.
According to Mr Molan starting the war was not bad policy. ‘The real failure is to run a war incompetently once you are committed.’
Mr Moran blames the senior military for holding a minimalist view and giving bad advice to governments of all stripes who ‘…don’t have a clue how to run a war,…’
The commentariat also cops a pasting. They ‘…spend 99% of the time talking about how we got into these wars…’. The remaining 1% of efforts is dissipated by breathless reporters who are appalled to discover that war involves killing, and convey the propaganda events of the enemy into our living rooms wthout any perspective.
Having Blimpishly harrumphed the senior military who advise the governments, the governments themselves, and the people who write about wars into utter, abject defeat, Mr Molan explains that he knows how to win the Afghan War.
At last, I thought while reading the article, someone knows how to win the Afghan war.
‘…winning for us is to put the Afghans in the best position to win this war themselves. For the Afghans, success must revolve around winning (or losing) in the next 10 to 20 years.
Naturally this all requires oodles more men and equipment. Mr Westmorland comes to mind.
etc, etc, etc.
I am not sure whether Mr Molan is capable of detecting irony, but I would suggest to him that the Afghans are already winning the war and that they will win it in far, far less than 10 years.
It is just that the winning Afghans will not be Mr Molan’s Afghans. They will be the other Afghans.
We are fortunate that we have thinkers of the calibre of Mr Hugh White and Mr Saikal to inform this debate.
deblonay
[Two views on Afghan War]
The fantasy talk has been hilarious.After the recent day long battle in Kabul it was gobsmacking to hear them spinning recent attacks in urban areas as a sure sign we were “winning”. I’d hate to see what happens when we are “losing” considering just who has been knocked off in these urban attacks in just the last couple of months. Especially considering these guys would be amongst the most closely guarded men in Afghanistan. Yep obvious sign that we have “won”
Burhanuddin Rabbani peace envoy and former president September 20, 2011
Ahmed Wali Karzai, Chief of Kandahar Provincial Council,brother of president July 12, Jan Mohammad Khan, Former governor of Uruzgan,senior presidential aide July 18, 2011
Ghulam Haidar Hameedi, mayor of Kandahar city July 27, 2011
[I get taxed next to nothing anyway.]
AB, are you playing deliberatelly dumb?
If the ALP had not negotiated an ETS with the independents then they would have lost a large chunk of their core constituents, and if they dumped it tomorrow their support would fall off a cliff and the independents would leave them.
The ETS that the ALP took to the last election had a 1 year fixed price, the new deal nutted out with the independents has a 3 year fixed price. Both are fixed price introductions to an ETS…
http://motherjones.com/politics/2011/09/rick-perry-israel-speech
Gov. Perry says we must support Israel as God commands it….and he is a potential Presidental candidate.
The Courier Mail is really going after Campbell Newman. What gives?
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/can-the-king-of-cairns-prove-to-be-the-can-do-candidate-for-campbell/story-e6frerdf-1226161069331
BB
Jack Russells have taste and discrimination, which is obviously why Singo’s has done a runner.
Why not suggest to Singo that if he ties a chop around his neck the dog will probably play with him?
[It would prove he is insincere if he sides with the guy who undermined his leadership against the woman who actually stood by him and even refused to criticise him after he left.]
It would. I was just thinking of his stupid editorial where he claimed you need to have kids to be a successful politician. (And its kinda interesting how Gillard’s unwillingness to criticise people she formerly worked with is seen as a negative sometimes.)
I agree it is time to get out of Afghanistan. Gillard, Rudd and Smith should take the lead here.
poroti
[The fantasy talk has been hilarious.]
What must have really stung is that a totally new group, the Haqqani, has been able to form during the war and that it now has the capability of penetrating, inter alia, Kabul security.