Morgan: 57-43 to Coalition

The headline figure might not look anything to write home about, but the latest Morgan face-to-face poll offers Labor a relatively encouraging result: their primary vote is up 3.5 per cent on the previous fortnight to 35.5 per cent, their best result since May. The Coalition is down 1.5 per cent to 46.5 per cent and the Greens one to 10 per cent. To any Labor supporters who might feel like reaching for the champagne bottle, it has to be said that due caution is required for any poll which is half conducted over a long weekend that included grand finals for both major football codes.

Using the industry standard measure of allocating minor party preferences as per the result of the previous election, the Coalition lead is down from 55.5-54.5 to 53.5-46.5, which is only Labor’s best result since late July and early August (when consecutive polls had their primary vote at 34.5 per cent). The bad headline figure for Labor is a result of the highly idiosyncratic results Morgan is getting on respondent-allocated preferences. This poll has nearly 60 per cent of minor party and independent voters directing preferences to the Coalition, a result without any precedent since at least the mid-1990s. The other pollster that publishes respondent-allocated figures, Nielsen, has also shown Labor’s preference share declining since the 2010 election, but not to anything like the same degree.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,285 comments on “Morgan: 57-43 to Coalition”

Comments Page 1 of 66
1 2 66
  1. The big positive for Labor is the jump in primary vote and the next Newspoll will be interesting to see if this is carried through into their polling. William’s caution about the long weekend and footie finals is a sobering note of caution.

  2. You know, if there is some kind of sloooooow trend back to the ALP starting to show, it could make last nights mischievous talk of Fiberal leadership challenge a bit more credible. I mean, ALL Abbott’s got is the current polling??

    Ok, that may sound a bit absurd at face value, but we are 2 years out from an election. If it looks like Abbott’s slipping, then why will the Libs stick with him when he’s such a git??

  3. I posted this at the end of the last thread:

    [Those latest Morgan figures of LNP 46.5 ALP 35.5 GR 10 OTH 8 would translate to a 53/47 two party party preferred (rounded) if using the preference flows from the last election.

    Ordinarily I’d say Morgan has a “house bias” towards the ALP in his face to face polls, so this might place the figure around 56-57/44-43, where it has been tracking with the phone pollsters; but he is so erratic, I just take his polls at face value now and say “who the hell knows?”]

    Whether there is anything in this (and the within margin of error Essential “changes”) to suggest the “start of a trend” is very premature. I suspect there’ll be a Newspoll this weekend, and Nielsen is due as well.

    When those figures are published then we’ll have a much better idea of the state of play, such that it is.

    However, if the Newspoll (which always seems to get most coverage) shows anything remotely like today’s effort, then it will be interesting to watch the reaction; from the media and the political parties.

  4. Interesting. Like all polls, I take it with a grain of salt and assume the most prudent explanation.

    As I said last night, the government’s first goal is to get rid of the public perception that they’re terminal. While better polling will help that cause, the meme needs to be there. People need to believe that Labor could be re-elected, otherwise there will be a ceiling over their support.

    Keep the LNP division talking points up though. If there is a genuine movement back to Labor (not just small movements) the crack will likely widen.

  5. BH

    Re the water supplies in Vic.
    I absolute believe that there should be more recycling of stormwater, and that would include upgrading drainage systems of the city.
    Instead of dams, flood (stormwater) mitigation hollows could provide more water for recycling.
    Utilise far more of the treated effluent at Werribee and the Eastern TP to supplement water supply, instead of sending it out to sea.
    Many people now have their own tanks, after the restrictions during the last drought.

  6. [This poll has nearly 60 per cent of minor party and independent voters directing preferences to the Coalition, a result without any precedent since at least the mid-1990s. The other pollster that publishes respondent-allocated figures, Nielsen, has also shown Labor’s preference share declining since the 2010 election, but not to anything like the same degree.]

    Not sure I like this bit, William. Labor needs to count heavily on preferences.

    I did like Ari’s numbers tho 😉

  7. Thanks lizzie – it’s always amazed me that so much heavy rain/storm water rushes out to see in Sydney instead of being recycled somehow.

    We’re on tank water exclusively altho we use the dam for the garden. Tank water is OK here for kitchen use but I wouldn’t use City tank water for anything other than the garden.

  8. http://www.themonthly.com.au/blog-out-control-robert-manne-4031

    [Out of Control: More Bad News
    Robert Manne
    Blog | Wednesday, 5 October 2011 – 6:27am

    Before my Quarterly Essay on the Australian was published there was some discussion about what it should be called. Before “Bad News” my preference was for “Out of Control”. A brief account of how the Australian has responded to my critique will explain why.

    The best way to capture the mad quality – and indeed quantity – of the Australian’s response to “Bad News” is by providing a diary of the articles, editorials, blogs, letters to the editor, ‘Cut & Paste’ items and the one cartoon that the Australian has published over the past month. If the response seems fantastical to those who do not read the Australian I promise that what follows is not satire.]

    Worth a look.

  9. bemused

    Can’t stand meetings and I never go out at night. It’s probably not a good excuse, but I’ve had a lot of ill-health and was massively relieved when I was able to stop work.
    Doesn’t stop my brain working, tho’!

  10. [ This poll has nearly 60 per cent of minor party and independent voters directing preferences to the Coalition, a result without any precedent since at least the mid-1990s.

    Not sure I like this bit, William. Labor needs to count heavily on preferences.]

    I like it. What it means to me is that finally some of the protest voters are disconnected from their shock jock-fuelled Coalition kneejerk vote and are starting to come back in Labor’s direction, but they can’t – at this early stage – bring themselves to say they’ve repented, so they claim their second preference goes to the Coaliton.

    Think ahead two years when these (and hopefully many others) have broken back to Labor, and ask yourselves if they’ll still be laying an each-way bet on the Coalition.

  11. May I put a very positive spin on it?

    If, as you say, it was conducted on a long weekend that included footy finals, doesn’t that point to this being a particularly GOOD result for the government?

    Think about it: if no-one is focussed on politics because of all that extraneous activity then surely the outcome would be the same or similar to the last one? Why would the vote shift like this – 3.5% on primaries is a bigger shift than we’ve seen for some time – unless it is the start of a general trend back towards the government.

    Or, to put it another way, is internal polling in the Liberals showing exactly this, which is why we have had policy rumblings from the back bench, Turnbull being a bit too frank (once safely overseas, natch!) and last, but certainly not least, “The Situation” in full New Paradigm mode?

  12. lizzie @ 17

    You are one of my favourites. You do have a good mind and I say that not because we seem to mostly agree. 😉

    It seems a minority of members actually attend meetings these days except maybe in zoomster’s branch.

    Worth considering. You are eastern suburbs Melbourne aren’t you?

  13. BH

    We have a tank for drinking and a dam for the garden, too, but also have mains water which we can use for emergencies. We’re lucky to live in a ‘wet’ area and could easily fill several more tanks. Note to self: really must do something about that!
    I just think of other cities (UK?) where the water is purified and recycled and wonder why Melbourne doesn’t do it. With the population growth there’s going to be a crunch time.

  14. [This poll has nearly 60 per cent of minor party and independent voters directing preferences to the Coalition, a result without any precedent since at least the mid-1990s. The other pollster that publishes respondent-allocated figures, Nielsen, has also shown Labor’s preference share declining since the 2010 election, but not to anything like the same degree.]
    Labor would do well to think about why that is before the next election.

    My own 2 cents worth: as one of these people I think it obvious that since the ultra far right have cemented their control of the Labor machine they dismiss the intreests of progressive thinking people while driving the party on their own agends. This is justified by the assumption that as long as Labor stays fractionally to the left of the now uber-far right Liberal Party they will still get the disillusioned left voters back as preferences. The niaivety of this strategy is it assumes all people are rational and analytical. Many people vote or preference one major party as a protest against the other without checking the preferenced party very much, while others will vote informal or exhaust their preference before choosing between the two rotting fish at the bottom of their ballot paper. Lets home Labor’s ruling ideology returns to merely well-to-the-right of Robert Menzies, rather than well-to-the-right of Jeff Kennett.

    Back to work for me, have a nice weekend everyone.

  15. Ari,

    If you are still lurking, a few of us have detected a bit of a change both in the Liberal Party and the govt. I would be interested in your take on it.

  16. bemused

    How about I promise to consider it?
    I’ve always thought of Labor meetings as full of union types and bullying politics and the comments from others here certainly haven’t helped.

  17. Great first comment on the Costello article:

    [aja
    Posted at 1:33 PM today

    Peter Costello is as delusional as ever, a natural enough consequence of believing the ludicrous position adopted by his party and supporters that he was the world’s “greatest” treasurer.

    Lazy, complacent, faced with nowhere near the challenges that have emerged over the last three years, he couldn’t have lasted six months once the global economy tanked.

    Set Australia up? He managed to save a paltry $20billion out of an increase in revenue of $300billion pa., and did what with it? Squandered it on bribes to the stupid and the greedy to the point where we are now locked into an entitlement mentality where those on three times the national wage expect handouts. No investment in crumbling infrastructure, innovation, or new industry. Yes, thanks so much, Mr Costello.

    Incidentally, where is your gong from the IMF and the international monetary establishment, and how long did you spend waiting for all the corporate job offers you so confidently expected, none of which ever eventuated? Get over yourself. Mediocre, irresponsible, and self-serving at best.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/use-new-taxes-to-rescue-manufacturing-pm-told-by-andrew-liveris/story-fnab4up0-1226161072735

    One does get the feeling that poor Peter is suffering delusions of grandeur. He has certainly forfeited his right to interfere in Liberal politics, after basically alternately playing possum and telling them to get stuffed, for 18 months prior to resigning so he could take up a job offer…. from a Labor government!

    His tragedy is truly Shakespearean: a man, handed what he had always wanted on a platter, who didn’t have the gumption to take it up (although I don’t know whether he’s Hamlet or Malvolio… there are aspects of both in our Peter).

    Costello, one of Nature’s natural squibbers, can’t complain about the bed he made for himself.

    If nothing else, Abbott has shown him what a mere scrapper could do to Labor as LOTO. Imagine someone with the magnificence and gravitas of a Costello in the same job!

  18. lizzie @ 24

    bemused

    How about I promise to consider it?
    I’ve always thought of Labor meetings as full of union types and bullying politics and the comments from others here certainly haven’t helped.

    It’s a deal!

    Not many union types at all these days. Some are members that don’t attend and those that do attend are pretty good.

    A very good cross section of society actually. We even have a few young people!

    Our oldest member is about 90 and she is just great. Drives herself to meetings and is sharp as a tack. Must get her to sit out front at a meeting one time and tell us a few yarns about her experiences before we were around.

    I cannot remember the last meeting I went to at which there was any sort of argument. Differences of opinion are another matter. 😉

  19. BB,

    If personal vanity and an underwhelming record of performance were not sufficient to cast doubts on Costello character, his raising of sectarianism in his critique of Abbott and the Liberal front bench recently further undermines his creibility as some sort of modern Liberal.

    There were good reasons why his own Party didn’t turn to him. They are becoming more apparent as each post political squeek emerges from this never was.

  20. [vexnews
    @vexnews vexnews
    IPA’s John Roskam urges Abbott not to be a do-nothing PM who shirks the big issues http://bit.ly/nHoHKz #auspol
    1 hour ago via Tweet Button Favorite Retweet Reply
    Retweeted by TheIPA]

    Vexnews tweeted the IPA article around, which the IPA then retweeted themselves, complete with Vex’s headline.

    It’s getting around. Also see who else forwarded it…

    [samanthamaiden samanthamaiden
    “Abbott’s Hollow Agenda” Mild mannered and card carrying Lib John Roskam gets out the baseball bat RT @TheIPA bit.ly/pFKmaU
    4 hours ago]

  21. http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/national/10421426/rudd-diagnoses-richos-syndrome/

    [Rudd diagnoses Richo’s syndrome
    AAP October 7, 2011, 11:26 am

    Former federal Labor minister Graham Richardson is suffering from relevance deprivation syndrome, Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd says.

    Mr Richardson this week used his Sky TV show Richo to “out” Victorian MP and former veterans affairs minister Alan Griffin and West Australian senator Mark Bishop as those behind a push to get Mr Rudd back in the prime minister’s job.

    On Friday, Mr Richardson followed up the Wednesday broadcast with an article in The Australian saying Mr Griffin had been doing much of the work for Mr Rudd and was constantly in the ears of his colleagues talking up a Rudd-led rescue of the Labor minority government.

    The foreign minister on Friday said “Griffo” and he had been friends for about a decade and he had seen him twice in the past month, but downplayed the catch-ups.]

    More in the article

  22. I have to say, all rationality and public interest aside, I’d love to see the ALP creep back into an election winning position over the next 6 months just to hang all these stupid media commentators out to dry over their comments about the leadership, the ALP being doomed, all the style over substance crap, their self important “we’re players in the game” trying to manipulate an outcome or a few headlines, etc. Plus a big F U to the miners over the CPRS campaign, the AITA over the carbon tax scare campaign, Clubs Australia over the pokies, the BATs and Harvey Normans and everyone else who has had a self interested whinge.

    It still looks doubtful the ALP can do it, but oh it would be so gratifying.

  23. More from the no-nothing government:
    [The Gillard Government has committed to support 50,000 NRAS properties, with up to 35,000 dwellings across the country by 30 June 2014, and the remaining 15,000 by 30 June 2016.

    The National Rental Affordability Scheme complements other Gillard Government initiatives to improve the community’s access to affordable housing, including the $450 million Housing Affordability Fund and the $100 million Building Better Regional Cities program. ]
    http://www.andrewleigh.com/blog/?p=1634

  24. The Australian’s take on Rudd’s press conference earlier

    [
    Kevin Rudd meets numbers man and takes on Tony Abbott, fuelling leadership speculation

    KEVIN Rudd has fuelled speculation that he is plotting to regain the prime ministership, failing to deny he is undermining Julia Gillard and admitting he met with his alleged numbers man earlier this week.

    The Foreign Minister also took on Tony Abbott directly, saying he was working every day to prevent Mr Abbott from becoming prime minister and radically changing the country.

    And Mr Rudd attacked the “factional bullies” of the Labor Party, who ousted him as prime minister, labelling former Labor powerbroker Graham Richardson their spokesman.
    ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/kevin-rudd-meets-numbers-man-and-takes-on-tony-abbott-and-the-alp-factions/story-fn59niix-1226161292284

  25. [IPA’s John Roskam urges Abbott not to be a do-nothing PM]
    I knew it! Tony Abbott is our Prime Minister!

  26. ducky
    All these positive things that the government has been doing must be driving Abbott spare! Perhaps he will seek comfort with the Puff Adder.

  27. madcyril – what a contrast between the AAP report & The Australian. Pretty much how we could have predicted it before they were written.

  28. [Think ahead two years when these (and hopefully many others) have broken back to Labor, and ask yourselves if they’ll still be laying an each-way bet on the Coalition.]

    Meet you here in 2 years and I hope you’ve picked it right, BB

    I’ve just walked the dog up the hills – don’t know whether I’ll make the next 2 years!!

  29. @JOM,

    Gillard is still there, the people that say that haven’t bothered to check the reality, perhaps it’s time you go back to you’re virtual reality (where it will be laggy as hell because Coalition don’t support High Speed Broadband).

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 1 of 66
1 2 66