Morgan: 57-43 to Coalition

The headline figure might not look anything to write home about, but the latest Morgan face-to-face poll offers Labor a relatively encouraging result: their primary vote is up 3.5 per cent on the previous fortnight to 35.5 per cent, their best result since May. The Coalition is down 1.5 per cent to 46.5 per cent and the Greens one to 10 per cent. To any Labor supporters who might feel like reaching for the champagne bottle, it has to be said that due caution is required for any poll which is half conducted over a long weekend that included grand finals for both major football codes.

Using the industry standard measure of allocating minor party preferences as per the result of the previous election, the Coalition lead is down from 55.5-54.5 to 53.5-46.5, which is only Labor’s best result since late July and early August (when consecutive polls had their primary vote at 34.5 per cent). The bad headline figure for Labor is a result of the highly idiosyncratic results Morgan is getting on respondent-allocated preferences. This poll has nearly 60 per cent of minor party and independent voters directing preferences to the Coalition, a result without any precedent since at least the mid-1990s. The other pollster that publishes respondent-allocated figures, Nielsen, has also shown Labor’s preference share declining since the 2010 election, but not to anything like the same degree.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,285 comments on “Morgan: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  5. [3252

    Thornleigh Labor Man

    Posted Tuesday, October 11, 2011 at 12:18 am | Permalink

    Unless Thompson is disendorsed just before the next election, Labor can kiss goodbye to Dobell.
    ]

    Dream on sunshine, Dream on.

  6. [3246
    Gweneth

    gordongraham Gordon Graham
    Tony Crook says his electorate opposes Tony Abbott’s changes to the migration act bit.ly/qBwyXL #auspol
    3 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply]

    Is crook voting with the Government?

  12. [Tony Crook says his electorate opposes Tony Abbott’s changes to the migration act]

    7 hours trapped in a car with Scott Morrison had the obvious effect then?

  15. briefly – hard to tell from the article. I think he wants to and his electorate covers a very broad range of places and voters. It will be very interesting.

  16. Gary
    I think you just might. Footy finals, World Cups, show forums make for an easy ride and you would expect a bigger move. But 29 per cent is good compared to 26 per cent support a whole ten per cent better. Labor voters just swapping with the Greens though.
    Wait till normal service resumes.
    I will be around but as this is a site allegedly about Polls I don’t bother with the drivel in between.
    Two years to go though……probably. Not in QLD though

  18. [

    gordongrahamGordon Graham

    #Newspoll best party to handle asylum seekers: ALP 17, L/NP 44 #auspol

    30 seconds agoFavoriteRetweetReply

    gordongrahamGordon Graham

    #Newspoll best party to handle climate change: ALP 28, L/NP 31 #auspol

    1 minute ago]

    These will be the items highlighted tomorrow.

  19. [The Gillard government’s economic management has been hammered, with a loss of 15 percentage points to 28 per cent since August last year. The Coalition’s support has risen three points to 47 per cent, giving it a 19-point lead over Labor — its biggest since 2006.

    This comes despite Australia’s relative economic strength, with Wayne Swan being named the world’s best treasurer by Euromoney magazine and last week’s tax and job forums. Although interest rates are still low, Labor’s support on the issue of 26 per cent is the weakest since 2006 — before the impact of 11 interest rate rises in a row under the Howard government.]

    Makes me sick.

  20. [The best thing Rudd could do is go to the backbench announcing his retirement at the next election.]

    Yeah, that should get the polls up to 70/30 in favour of the Coalition easily.

    Exactly you would want to see that, I can’t for the life of me imagine.

  22. shameaham can spin all he likes. a 3% increase in PV is a good move, altho only a 1% yield in 2PP is disappointing
    i also love how PPM is so important now that Abbott is in front, didnt matter so much all those months when Gillard led

  23. [LABOR may have finally bounced off rock bottom but Australia’s oldest political party and its leader are still facing a historic loss of public confidence and electoral failure.

    A three-point rise in the Newspoll primary vote for the ALP has avoided the unthinkable for the Gillard government of going to 25 per cent or below to have less support than the combined vote for the Greens and various odds and sods, but the broader view of this survey of public opinion about Labor – as well as the personal standing of Julia Gillard – is devastating. The electorate has not only stopped listening to Labor but rejected it on every front.

    As the Prime Minister prepares to put herself on the line tomorrow and Thursday for the carbon tax and her Malaysia Solution for asylum-seekers, it is clear Labor’s priorities are not where voters think they should be.

    What’s more, not only is Labor using huge capital to fight for areas of least concern; it is also losing the battle comprehensively.

    Start of sidebar. Skip to end of sidebar.

    End of sidebar. Return to start of sidebar.

    It is now clear voters have no faith in this government in a political or policy sense and the Prime Minister cannot claim positive attention.

    For the first time, the Coalition is either statistically equal to Labor or well in front on every key electoral issue. This goes beyond the toxic carbon tax, which has been poison for Labor and Gillard, and the confused and contradictory signals on processing of asylum-seekers to Labor’s heartland issues.

    As the so-called “negative” Opposition Leader continues to dominate the incumbent prime minister as preferred leader, Labor has lost its long-held ascendancy on health and education policies.

    Labor has attacked Tony Abbott for his record as health minister, and Gillard has been the “education prime minister”. Yet in the past year Labor’s support has crashed by 14 percentage points in each area while the Coalition’s has risen seven points.

    Even on industrial relations, where Labor still uses John Howard’s Work Choices to lambast Abbott and run scare campaigns, the Gillard government has lost the advantage it had. The negative heritage of Work Choices has been neutralised and Labor’s advantage on climate change and the environment overturned.

    While concentrating on a carbon tax, Labor has left voters with the impression it is not capable of managing the economy. Never have so many voters turned off so comprehensively on so many issues.]

    Have you ever read a more disgustingly biased Coalition-mouthpieced essay as this?

  24. [gusface

    Posted Tuesday, October 11, 2011 at 12:25 am | Permalink

    ahha

    so the rudd flouters darent show their snozzes
    ]

    and up pops….

    [3270

    scorpio

    Posted Tuesday, October 11, 2011 at 12:26 am | Permalink

    The best thing Rudd could do is go to the backbench announcing his retirement at the next election.

    Yeah, that should get the polls up to 70/30 in favour of the Coalition easily.

    Exactly you would want to see that, I can’t for the life of me imagine.
    ]

  26. those of the 7-11b black hole, and 70 b in budget cuts to find are 47-28 ahead for economic management
    those of the supported by no scientists twice-costing direct action carbon plan led by a denier are ahead 31-28 on climate change

    a great argument for not letting the dumb vote

  29. So Newspoll only shifts 1% to Labor?
    Not good I was expecting at least a 55/45
    The last 3 weeks have been one continuous Julia promo
    Birthday puppy ordered a week before to get the most out of the upcoming event then birthday pressies with Tim and cheering neighbours, birthday with kids, cooking with Masterchef kids, grand final, taxfest, jobsfest
    (she’s made Kev look like a shrinking violet)
    Even announced to the press she had talked to the Bali kid sheesh!
    No shots left in the locker and all she gets is 1 lousy %!!!
    Oh Julia the spin it ain’t working

    kev will be back before chrissy at this rate 👿

  32. [scorpio

    Posted Tuesday, October 11, 2011 at 12:33 am | Permalink

    Frank Calabrese,

    Shouldn’t you be over at your blog slagging off at the posters there?
    ]

    To quote the Lemur:

    Rudd’s Law
    Rudd’s Law
    Rudd’s Law

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