Newspoll: 57-43 to Liberal-National in WA

The latest quarterly Newspoll of state voting intention for Western Australia shows no change on two-party preferred, with the Liberal-National (don’t call us the Coalition) government still holding a commanding 57-43 lead. Both parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 29 per cent and Liberal to 42 per cent with the Nationals steady on 6 per cent. The Greens are up a point to 13 per cent. It’s interesting to compare these results with Newspoll’s quarterly federal result for Western Australia, which I believe covered an identical sample: it had the Coalition ahead 60-40 on two-party with 50 per cent of the primary vote, and Labor’s primary vote at just 24 per cent. Eric Ripper has made an interesting six point gain in the preferred premier race, although he’s still far behind with 22 per cent (up four) to Colin Barnett’s 56 per cent (down two). Counter-intuitively, both leaders’ personal ratings are little changed: Barnett is up a point on approval to 51 per cent and down two on disapproval to 35 per cent, while Ripper is respectively up one to 34 per cent and steady on 43 per cent. Numbers as usual from GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

15 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Liberal-National in WA”

  1. I bet WA Labor strategists are thinking the following: this is all going to plan and we can blame another appalling poll all on Federal Labor. Besides Erics’s a nice guy and it’s his turn to have a go and we wont win the next election so it doesnt really matter. We can go to the next poll get comprehesively flogged and then at sometime in the distant future reposition ourselves with a fresh set of candidates handpicked by two blokes. That 2000 members isn’t really that bad and besides it doesn’t matter whether we connect With the community cos we just need to keep the focus on congratulating ourselves for running this obviously highly effective political machine …..

  2. I’m pretty sure there were four blokes making the decisions but they were supported on the night by two blokes who had to ‘ring in’ their support being not members and all.

    I’m not saying he is a great opposition leader but bit tough on Eric he was a brilliant treasurer (Porter compare and contrast) and is very capable.

    But yeah there are no wheels on the ‘highly’ effective political machine.

  3. Yeh you are probably right on the process with the four blokes making decisions and the two “special comments” blokes providing advice and making preselection threats where appropriate.

    Ripper was a good treasurer but he has simply not cut through as opposition leader whatsoever and there is no evidence to suggest he will.

    My sense is that they spent the first two years blaming all things carpenter and his
    stupid decision to go early for their all of their woes conveniently forgetting the wonderful work done by then ministers around the CCC etc.

    The last year or so it’s all the Feds fault and really they just need “clean air” to get the message across.

    Power prices, cost of living, incompetent ministers currently and the best they can do is a 29% primary .

    Yeh right

  4. It could be worst I guess, when is the next state election for WA anyway?
    (I’m bad at keeping up when elections are)

    Put your vote in for Labor anyway, Perth!

  5. [It could be worst I guess, when is the next state election for WA anyway?

    (I’m bad at keeping up when elections are)]

    They aren’t scheduled, so any time, but no later than May 2013.

    The last one was September 2008, so I’d hazard a guess and say it will be held some time near September 2012.

  6. The parliament is currently in the process of legislating for the election date to be the second Saturday in March every four years, so the next one would be on 9 March 2013.

    Even if not passed, the way the WA Constitution is written, the last election may have been in September 2008, but the parliament does not expire until the end of January 2013.

  7. The last WA redistribution was pretty favourable to Labor, so it looks like a bit of swings-and-roundabouts if it goes back the opposite way this time.

    The changes to Riverton, Swan Hills, and North West are the most logical you could make, and if that happens to favour the Libs then so be it. Labor does well out of Morley and a couple of other Perth seats….really it doesn’t look to overwhelmingly favour one side over another overall.

    Interesting that the WAEC freely admits that the boundaries will cause problems and issues for next time. I still reckon making the Fundamental Change would have been better, because all they’ve done is push the problem out til 2015 when even more radical changes will be needed.

  8. Well, west swan was already a bits-and-pieces seat, and they’ve at least made it a little less messy by placing Ellenbrook there and removing Wanneroo Council. Swan Hills now moves up and takes in those towns along the Great Eastern Highway east of Perth….that makes alot of sense.

    I showed in my submission how you could place everything west of the Swan in West Swan, and unite everything east of Midland in Swan Hills, but you needed to create a new Perth seat to do that. Perhaps I should have said the changes were the most logical you could make if you insisted on using the Minimal Change model…..

  9. Plus the changes to Riverton were obvious: gain Rossmoyne and use Bull Creek as the boundary. Labor complained because it added a good Liberal area to a marginal seat, but so be it.

    And the swap between Pilbara and North West makes perfect sense. Again, this had a particular political outcome but that’s no reason to not do it.

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