Can’t see full online results anywhere at this stage, but GhostWhoVotes and The Australian relate the publication of the latest quarterly Newspoll figures providing breakdowns by state, gender and metro/regional from the past three months’ polling. The state figures are always the most interesting from my perspective, and it’s only Newspoll and Nielsen which offer this level of detail. Nielsen publishes full breakdowns for its monthly polls, but these are from much lower samples than the quarterly Newspoll. To even the playing field, the following discussion uses quarterly averages of Nielsen’s results.
The resulting samples are substantial for the biggest states – over 2000, in the case of Newspoll for New South Wales – but correspondingly smaller for Western Australia and especially South Australia. It is presumably no coincidence that for the two biggest states the two pollsters are currently in agreement, with swings of 8 per cent in New South Wales and 6 to 7 per cent in Victoria (although as the charts below show, it was a different story in the previous quarter). It is also agreed the swing in Western Australia is around 4 per cent. With Queensland however, a gap emerges: Newspoll says 6 per cent, Nielsen says 10 per cent. There is a still bigger gap in the case of South Australia, but this can be put down to small samples and the latest obviously anomalous result from Nielsen.
To establish whether there has been any consistency in these distinctions over time, the charts below show the Labor swings recorded in each quarter since the election. Despite poll-level peculiarities, both broadly suggest that Labor enjoyed a post-election dead cat bounce in the resource states. In the case of Western Australia, this gave Labor a buffer which is still evident in the relatively slight current swing. On the Nielsen chart however, the most recent result sees the lines for New South Wales and Victoria cutting across Queensland’s – remembering that the prevous quarter’s results for these states were very different from Newspoll’s, the only serious interruption to a broadly similar picture for these two states since the election.
Conveniently, Galaxy has also conducted one poll of 800 respondents in each quarter in Queensland, and these accord perfectly with the Newspoll and Nielsen results from this state. In each period, Labor is slightly higher in Newspoll and slightly lower in Nielsen with Galaxy in between, and there’s not much in it in any case. In the current quarter, Galaxy’s 63-37 two-party preferred splits the middle of the previously noted four-point gap between Newspoll and Nielsen. The only other state-level results I’m aware of are two Western Australian polls of 400 respondents conducted by Patterson Market Research. One of these was as long ago as October last year, which accorded with Newspoll and Nielsen of that time in showing a Labor recovery. However, an unpublished poll from two months ago was solidly worse for Labor than either, pointing to a swing of about 7 per cent.
What the polls would appear to indicate then is a big enough swing in New South Wales to account for Greenway, Robertson, Lindsay, Banks, Reid, Page, Eden-Monaro, Parramatta, Dobell, Kingsford Smith, Werriwa, Barton, Richmond and McMahon, and a slightly smaller swing in Victoria that would take out Corangamite, La Trobe, Deakin and possibly Chisholm (UPDATE: I originally included McEwen, but as noted in comments, the redistribution has made this safer for Labor). Since Galaxy splits the middle in Queensland, it seems best to apply its 8 per cent swing there – which, as was noted at the time the poll was published, would leave only Kevin Rudd standing in Griffith. Gone would be Moreton, Petrie, Lilley, Capricornia, Blair, Rankin and Oxley. In Western Australia, Labor currently holds Brand on 3.3 per cent, Fremantle on 5.7 per cent and Perth on 5.9 per cent: the Newspoll and Nielsen poll swings would put the first in danger while sparing the second and third.
Results from South Australia are small-sample and inconsistent, except that they have broadly been at the higher end of the national spectrum – perhaps around 8 per cent. However, this is coming off the high base of last year’s election, which gave Labor very handy buffers in a swathe of traditionally marginal seats. The lowest Labor margins are 5.7 per cent in Hindmarsh (where Labor has weakened relatively over the last two elections), 7.7 per cent in Adelaide, 12.0 per cent in Wakefield, 12.2 per cent in Makin and 13.9 per cent in Kingston. The last three seats, remarkably, were all in Liberal hands as recently as 2007.
Owing to insufficient sample size, neither Newspoll nor Nielsen provides state-level breakdowns for Tasmania. We did however have an EMRS poll from Bass a month ago which pointed to a 9 per cent Liberal swing, but this was from a small sample of 300 and there were questions raised about its methodology. A swing of that size would nonetheless be enough to take out Bass (6.7 per cent) and its neighbour Braddon (7.5 per cent). The territories of course are pretty much excluded from the polling picture altogether, although Warren Snowdon’s hold on Lingiari in the Northern Territory would have to be open to question given its margin of 3.7 per cent.
None of this should be read as a prediction: first term governments notwithstanding, its a rare government that doesn’t plumb mid-term polling depths far removed from the result eventually produced by the election. This is especially so in the modern environment, when weakening party loyalties have produced an ever-swelling contingent of swinging voters. Even so, the drumbeat consistency of dire results for Labor since April is hard to ignore, and it has no precedent for any government which lived to tell the tale. Labor’s leads during the early part of Mark Latham’s shooting star trajectory were never higher than 55-45; only once in early 2001 did Kim Beazley get as high as 57-43, and was usually solidly lower; and the relevant Newspolls for the great Houdini act of modern federal politics, Paul Keating’s win in 1993, look fairly benign compared with Gillard’s recent numbers. The Fightback! polls which toppled Hawke at the end of 1991 were in the order of 56-44 and 57-43, and Keating wrestled them back to the low fifties by March. Only from November 1991 to February 1992, after John Hewson remodelled his GST to exclude food and clothing, did the Coalition reach such peaks again.
Another lesson from history is that when the electorate ejects Labor from office, it tends to do with a force which the conservative parties are spared. With few exceptions (a handful of those in New South Wales plus Brand, Lingiari and arguably Oxley, which Pauline Hanson won in 1996 as a disendorsed Liberal), the seats listed as Labor losses on the current results have all been lost to them before.
Orf to a couple of meetings – will see if I can get any vibes from the groups.
The Left has won control of the French Senate for the first time since 1958 (when the Fifth Republic was founded).
At the election on Sunday (?) the Left picked up 25 seats for a 177 total and the Centre-Right lost 17 for 172. A total of 175 is needed for a majority.
confessions:
[autocrat:
Liberals and their shills in the media want an election because they know they would win it in a landslide.
They are hoping to do what they did to Labor last year: change leaders, moderate (or dump altogether) the carbon pricing scheme, and race to an election.]
Yes – but on what basis will any PM be able to go to the GG with advice to dissolve the House? there has to be a reaosn – is it impossible for the government to get bills passed? Is there a supply issue? It isn’t just a matter of the PM deciding they want an election one year into the term of the Parliament- the GG is well within their rights to reject their advice in that case, and they probably would as the parliament is functioning brilliantly.
The media generally don’t seem to understand this – I haven’t seen a single jot in the MSM stating the actual constitutional arrangements.
There is a fascinating graph on page 9 which covers prominence of issues.
Look at the very steep climb in reporting about asylum seekers in The Australian over the last two years, compared to the Fairfax papers.
http://www.arts.monash.edu.au/mapping-population/–documents/mapping-social-cohesion-summary-report-2011.pdf
Just heard the full clip of what Kevin Rudd had to say. Wasn’t that bad actually.
Tim Costello’s take on Pokie reforms:
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/the-games-up–pokies-reform-not-so-taxing-for-footy-20110926-1ktgx.html#poll
Diog @ 153
Proves my point re Newspoll, really
[
Can anyone explain to me how Rudd can call an election in the case that he replaces Gillard? Seems to me he’d have to lose a no confidence motion in the House, AND it would need to be the case that Abbott couldn’t get majority support.
]
autocrat
Wikipedia covers it as follows
[
At a national level, elections are held at least once every three years.(1) The Prime Minister can advise the Governor-General to call an election for the House of Representatives at any time, but Senate elections can only be held within certain periods prescribed in the Australian Constitution. The most recent Australian federal election took place in August 2010.
]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Australia
So Rudd could just advise the Governor General to call an election and off we go.
Antony Green talks about related matters, such as the type of election and so on in this blog post
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2011/08/when-can-an-election-be-held.html
Kezza2:
I believe the polls are accurate in that they are capturing a snapshot of voter sentiment today. Just look through the side bar under ‘Recent Posts’ – they are all fairly consistent, and all following each other.
kezza2
If Rudd can help Labor around election time, I would not care if he were PM again. I just dont believe it would help one bit right now. As I said earlier, the LNP is so far in front of Labor at present in the opinion polls, and Abbott is not a popular leader.
[GruenHQ The Gruen Team
Taping first ep of Gruen Planet tonight, talking Brand Gillard and the Fosters/VB sale: how do you sell an Aussie beer that’s a Pommy beer?
]
autocrat:
If the PM whether it be Gillard, Rudd or even Abbott proposed an election, I see no reason why the GG would oppose it.
At the very least they would be seeking a lower house election now (there are specific rules about when Senate elections can be held), and would probably use the grounds of seeking a majority in the House. If Abbott was to somehow become PM you can bet this is the first thing he’d do.
BB – 18
Interesting post. I have felt for some time that the Lib vote is soft and will undoubtedly fall at some stage.
I’ve also had the impression that Labor’s poor polling is more a Gillard thing than the government as a whole. Don’t get me wrong. This is not Evan writing this. I think Julia is doing a great job in very difficult circumstances and doesn’t deserve any of the unfair crap that’s constantly thrown at her. However, it’s a pity that you didn’t ask them how they would feel about Rudd returning as PM. If they responded very positively it would be a clear indication that it is more of an image problem for Julia than for Labor, given your interlocutors’ stated approval of the government’s policies overall and their hatred of Abbott.
I am one of those who fervently believes Rudd would have lost the 2010 election and that Gillard, against massive odds, saved Labor’s bacon. Not only that, but all of the brilliant negotiating skills she continues to use in pushing her important reforms through parliament are something that Rudd would be nowhere near as good at.
But for all of that, politics is primarily about image and what the the great unwashed are prepared to do on polling day – and if it becomes obvious that through no fault of her own, Julia just can’t cut it with the masses and they strongly prefer someone else, no political party worth its salt could ignore that.
We’ll know in a couple of years what success she has had in winning them over. I sincerely hope she can.
fess
[I believe the polls are accurate in that they are capturing a snapshot of voter sentiment today. Just look through the side bar under ‘Recent Posts’ – they are all fairly consistent, and all following each other.]
My position is consistent, fess.
I believe Murdoch-controlled media is setting the agenda. All the rest religiously follow the negativity re Labor. Still, there’s a large part of the population either disengaged from the political process who rabbit whoever they heard last, or who are never captured in polls because mobile phone subscribers are not polled.
In 2008 Australia was practically a one-for-one per capita mobile phone users. Since then, don’t have the stats, but have heard/read that a large number of Australian no longer have a landline and rely solely on mobiles for communications, including wireless internet use.
Anyway, allow me my fantasy if you will. I prefer to remain optimistic.
Darn
I still wonder if people dont like the carbon tax, and still do not quite understand how it will work. Labor took a big hit from the very day this was announced.
Darn # 162
That is a very thoughtful and reasonable post.
[http://afr.com/p/national/business_tax_losses_set_for_overhaul_Ibb8THO08Y949zOg05X3nI]
Remember, folks, the media are just there to help.
.
.
.
To help the vested interests, that is.
[I still wonder if people dont like the carbon tax, and still do not quite understand how it will work. Labor took a big hit from the very day this was announced. ]
It’d be no surprise if they still don’t understand. Look at how deceptive Abbott and the anti-carbon price ads have been. And then a lot of the media just goes on about how Abbott’s so ‘disciplined’ rather than the fact he just makes s**t up.
confessions, if they have a working majority in the lower house, there’s absolutely no reason for the GG to accept that advice. I’d expect them to tell the PM to come back when they have a proper reason the spend the $60M+ for a new election, a year into the parliament with every single bill being passed. Maybe towards the end of next year they’d be more likely to allow it, but you can bet your life that the crossbenches won’t want an early election, they’d probably lose their seats.
[victoria
Posted Tuesday, September 27, 2011 at 10:54 am | Permalink
Darn
I still wonder if people dont like the carbon tax, and still do not quite understand how it will work. Labor took a big hit from the very day this was announced.]
You only have to look at Essential’s question:
First: Do you think polluting industries should be taxed (wtte). OOOOHHHH NOOOOOO!!!!!
Second: If the money from the polluting industries was given in compensation to low and middle income earners would you agree with the tax (wtte): OOOOHHHHH YEEEEEESSSSSSSS!!!!
Why, ffs, isn’t the question asked properly. If it’s about govt policy surely the question can be phrased to include the compensation. Not about “ifs” but about what it “is”
@Victoria/164,
They obviously under stand it, well at least the “TAX” bit.
Check you Bludgers later. Got some work to do.
Woke this morning to see Wayne Swan had won the Brownlow Medal for the World’s Greatest Aussie Rules Footballer overnight. That’s both the World’s Greatest Treasurer and the Brownlow in one week. Not a bad achievement for our Swannie.
Wonder how Hockey will slag this award?
Darn
That is a great post and I agree with most of it. History will be very kind to Gillard, assuming she loses in the next 2 years.
I sense the electorate is over the heckling of her a bit. I sense a grudging respect; similar to what Howard developed after about 4 years. The ALP needs to stick with her for the long term. A revolving door leadership is a very bad look. I still don’t know all the reasons Rudd was rolled. We shouldn’t forget that Rudd was also exposed to a relentless media assassination campaign for the final 12 months of his PM-ship. I think though that Gillard has faced a tougher time – certainly in the sense of visceral hatred, which is neither logical nor fair. One answer the the anti-Gillard vitriol would be found in having a qualified person psychoanalyse the motives of someone like Alan Jones. I am sure you would find all sorts of illogical Freudian type repressed hatreds.
I for the life of me cannot understand it. Perhaps some of those with a contrary view to Gillard may be able to enlighten me; though most of the anti-Gillard posts I read on this site and in the MSM seem to me to be based on prejudice and illogical hatred.
News Corp. Marketing Unit Said to Be Under Scrutiny by U.S. Investigators
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-26/news-corp-marketing-unit-said-to-be-under-scrutiny-by-u-s-investigators.html
So, research shows that majority of Labor voters are closer to the Liberals and I noticed, online, many Green supporters are responding to this by making fun of said voters? Am I the only one who sees a teensy flaw in this strategy?
[victoria
Posted Tuesday, September 27, 2011 at 10:54 am | Permalink
Darn
I still wonder if people dont like the carbon tax, and still do not quite understand how it will work. Labor took a big hit from the very day this was announced.]
Vic, I totally agree. But along with it came the perception that Julia had lied about it and couldn’t be trusted – which added to the damage already caused by the leaks during the 2010 campaign.
I think the CT issue can be turned around, but whether Julia’s image problem can be remains to be seen.
[We shouldn’t forget that Rudd was also exposed to a relentless media assassination campaign for the final 12 months of his PM-ship. I think though that Gillard has faced a tougher time – certainly in the sense of visceral hatred, which is neither logical nor fair. ]
It should also be connected to Abbott’s style of ‘opposition’ being aided and abetted by said media. I know its a rather distasteful metaphor, but I think of Abbott’s style as smothering. Never let your opponent get a moment of clear air. Which is why if things ever seem to take an upturn, there’s mysteriously some new crisis or negative story within the next day or two. As the same ‘rules’ don’t apply to Abbott because he’s A.) Liberal B.) Male C.) Ahead in the polls, the same pressure doesn’t build because they don’t allow it.
Kezza—KEZZA
If u can google telstra’ land line losses, I have on occasions and it was now don’t qote me we must check but I think something in the order of 34 the, in one particular month and I expect. That would not count the kids. Who move out and all have mobiles. At one stage our son was sharing big hosè with14 people all had mobiles. Some months ago there was an article in the british press about mobiles and poll in accuracies
That’s. Why I registered with ess, and its the only poll I beleive’irangthem one daya great talk with one of their management yes. They just internet. I conatuated him fo r. Being ahead of the game”
My only thing with this. Is I hope there is balance with the registered people that’s. Why I regisTered. I have urged eve..ry one here to do so, it probably something. William should research. I wonder why he doesent
That’s. Why ess, is the only poll I bother with any way some one should find out how many mobiles are in aust. How many of these people actually have land ,lines I think the research would turn up a big figure may be heaps more mobiles than land lines
But I do urge u to enroll with ess have been polled twice already. The send email out at random
So probably want be again fo some time
[Vic, I totally agree. But along with it came the perception that Julia had lied about it and couldn’t be trusted – which added to the damage already caused by the leaks during the 2010 campaign. ]
An accusation which was itself based on a lie. (And I know Gillard’s phrasing before the election wasn’t good, but hey, she was new to the job.) Not that anybody bothered questioning that when Abbott and co first spruiked it.
[Although, Abbott is not much more popular than the PM. Therefore why are the LNP so far ahead of Labor at present?]
The answer might be very similar to that to Why did WW II carpet bombing of UK civilian targets, and USSR sieges (esp Leningrad) not only fail to devastate morale but, after initial periods of shock, lead to steely resolve not to let the enemy crush civilians’ spirit, or nation?
Explored on Blitz Street episodes were the limits to populations’ ability to live in a constant state of terror, the spirit of defiance engendered by constant attack and destruction of what they cherished, how they coped (in UK cities with neighbourlyness and humour; in Leningrad with quiet determination and sacrifices of those who kept fire-watch and kept radios functioning).
The more the Opposition lies, rants, derides, demands plebiscites, a new election and fails to give credit where it’s due (all in vain!) – in direct contrast to national belief in The Land of the “Fair Go” & The umpire’s decision is final – the closer it gets to crossing those lines, as many in the Oppo, party & sycophantic media media know. This is NOT USA, and for the Aussies I know, The Tea Party’s the stuff of Only in America derision.
If Opposition & media cheer squads really believed Julia Gillard would wreck the ALP & current Government, they’d lay off her and let her wreck it beyond the point of no return. Only fear of her success drives the savagery of relentless attacks on her and her Government.
Carey. Its saying. Come u labor people. Uknow u really. Should vote liberal
I know iam a cynic
Dot wor-ry. Pbs. 2 years to god only knows what is around the corner I expect big karma. For the dark side eventually
Bye for now
autocrat@169, by convention the GG intervenes in government as little as possible and so would accept the prime minister’s advice.
[If Opposition & media cheer squads really believed Julia Gillard would wreck the ALP & current Government, they’d lay off her and let her wreck it beyond the point of no return. Only fear of her success drives the savagery of relentless attacks on her and her Government. ]
Exactly! (Though its also fear of minority government.) And I think a lot of that is behind the Ruddstoration talk in the media.
[Carey. Its saying. Come u labor people. Uknow u really. Should vote liberal]
Well it’s certainly not saying: “Come over and join us Greens”
I mean, ideologically, I agree with the Greens a lot. I also think they contribute a lot to public debate but this is one of their biggest flaws: their attitude towards others. They think voters will come around if they tell them how wrong they are, as well as many who actually ignore clear black and white statistics and assume everybody is a secret urban leftist. Also “If they vote Labor, they must be able to vote for us”
Whatever. The only party that seems to have any effective strategy (as dirty and cowardly as it is) is the one that should be kept away from power at all costs at the moment.
Putdowns don’t get much better than this.
I don’t know if it has been posted earlier, but it’s a nice old whack in the kisser for Hockey.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/hockey-needs-more-than-google-for-his-economic-research-20110926-1ktgv.html
[but this is one of their biggest flaws: their attitude towards others.]
That Greens advert during the Victorian election campaign which portrayed rural voters as ignorant hicks was a classic eg of that attitude. Stupid and offensive.
ninemsn reports:
[Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd has blamed jet lag for an unfortunate gaffe during a radio interview.
“I’m a very happy little vegemite being prime minister … being foreign minister of Australia,” he told ABC Central West in Orange, NSW, on Tuesday.
“You’ve caught me getting off the plane, jet lag.”
There has been speculation Mr Rudd is planning a leadership bid amid dire opinion polling of Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s performance.
Mr Rudd said he “fully supported the prime minister” but did not use Ms Gillard’s name.
The former prime minister will visit Condobolin in central western NSW on Tuesday to attend an indigenous event.]
It is not at all surprising that Labor fans are closer to the Liberals than to the Greens. The Greens contain mostly ex Laborite lefties.
That mostly leaves a rump right majority in Labor.
[Mr Rudd said he “fully supported the prime minister” but did not use Ms Gillard’s name.]
gasp.
OH, who is generally too busy to take note of politics, made the following observation when watching the ABC news breakfast show this morning.
“They have to wake up at some point to the fact the coalition are just running a big lie campaign”
Now I initially thought “the big lie” was an Orwellian concept, but after a bit of research found it was a Nazi propaganda tool. (I’ll be presenting OH with the Godwin later).
While having a look at the wiki on it. I found the following OSS psychological assessment of certain Austrian. I’m sure many here would be interested in it, especially when compared to the current Australian political/media environment.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Lie#Usage_in_Hitler.27s_psychological_profile
Triton, I believe that Convention also dictates that there be a proper reason for dissolving Parliament.
@ Finns, #427 previous thread:
[The Finnigans
Posted Monday, September 26, 2011 at 10:25 pm | Permalink
Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
Helen Coonan, China has decoupled itself from USA and Europe #qanda
13 seconds ago]
I was watching with my father, this morning. Just about fell of the chair when she said this. ” It’s not 1955!” Hard for them to accept the world is a different place.
While it is difficult to be certain as to why Gillard and Federal Labor is struggling it seems to me that MSM bias has to be a major factor. All the State ALP Governments and Oppositions are miles behind in the polls – surely we can’t blame Gillard for that. The constant drum-beat of MSM negativity seems to be having an effect.
A small example – I was only half listening to a report on last night’s Channel 7 NSW news but it was about some bad stuff-up in a hospital. When similar events occurred under the previous ALP Government it was blown-up out of all proportion, used as clear evidence of Government incompetence and the need for the Health Minister to take full responsibility. Last night I am sure they said wtte that “NSW has the biggest and busiest health system and unfortunately mistakes will occur.”
[That Greens advert during the Victorian election campaign which portrayed rural voters as ignorant hicks was a classic eg of that attitude. Stupid and offensive.]
Not to mention their whole campaign that seemed to be aimed directly at inner-city hipsters.
I know soon we’ll hear “the Greens got their highest federal vote ever in 2010” totally ignoring the concept of a protest vote.
Boerwar @ 189
[That mostly leaves a rump right majority in Labor.]
I’ve been puzzling how to comment on the close Lib/Lab theme, but you have summarised it for me. Thank you.
When Labor gets into power they seem to take on the cloak of Lib thinking, in order to stay there. As an example, Brumby’s govt became more and more arrogant as the years passed. I put it down to the lobbyists of the big end of town who pressure the MPs to give up their ‘crazy lefty thinking’.
[Mr Rudd said he “fully supported the prime minister” but did not use Ms Gillard’s name.]
Valley Girl journalism. “Like, oh my god!”
[people will believe a big lie sooner than a little one; and if you repeat it frequently enough people will sooner or later believe it.]
…And get the lockstep media to repeat, propagate and inundate as necessary
[Just for starters there’s the mobile phone crowd who don’t get polled.]
In the lates poll the 18 to 34 year olds support The PM, that’s the age group that have MOBILE PHONES, it’s the old fuddy duddies who don’t like change, there the problem.
But as I have said before, it only needs 6 in 100 to change their minds, and were even stevens!.