Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Can’t see full online results anywhere at this stage, but GhostWhoVotes and The Australian relate the publication of the latest quarterly Newspoll figures providing breakdowns by state, gender and metro/regional from the past three months’ polling. The state figures are always the most interesting from my perspective, and it’s only Newspoll and Nielsen which offer this level of detail. Nielsen publishes full breakdowns for its monthly polls, but these are from much lower samples than the quarterly Newspoll. To even the playing field, the following discussion uses quarterly averages of Nielsen’s results.

The resulting samples are substantial for the biggest states – over 2000, in the case of Newspoll for New South Wales – but correspondingly smaller for Western Australia and especially South Australia. It is presumably no coincidence that for the two biggest states the two pollsters are currently in agreement, with swings of 8 per cent in New South Wales and 6 to 7 per cent in Victoria (although as the charts below show, it was a different story in the previous quarter). It is also agreed the swing in Western Australia is around 4 per cent. With Queensland however, a gap emerges: Newspoll says 6 per cent, Nielsen says 10 per cent. There is a still bigger gap in the case of South Australia, but this can be put down to small samples and the latest obviously anomalous result from Nielsen.

To establish whether there has been any consistency in these distinctions over time, the charts below show the Labor swings recorded in each quarter since the election. Despite poll-level peculiarities, both broadly suggest that Labor enjoyed a post-election dead cat bounce in the resource states. In the case of Western Australia, this gave Labor a buffer which is still evident in the relatively slight current swing. On the Nielsen chart however, the most recent result sees the lines for New South Wales and Victoria cutting across Queensland’s – remembering that the prevous quarter’s results for these states were very different from Newspoll’s, the only serious interruption to a broadly similar picture for these two states since the election.

Conveniently, Galaxy has also conducted one poll of 800 respondents in each quarter in Queensland, and these accord perfectly with the Newspoll and Nielsen results from this state. In each period, Labor is slightly higher in Newspoll and slightly lower in Nielsen with Galaxy in between, and there’s not much in it in any case. In the current quarter, Galaxy’s 63-37 two-party preferred splits the middle of the previously noted four-point gap between Newspoll and Nielsen. The only other state-level results I’m aware of are two Western Australian polls of 400 respondents conducted by Patterson Market Research. One of these was as long ago as October last year, which accorded with Newspoll and Nielsen of that time in showing a Labor recovery. However, an unpublished poll from two months ago was solidly worse for Labor than either, pointing to a swing of about 7 per cent.

What the polls would appear to indicate then is a big enough swing in New South Wales to account for Greenway, Robertson, Lindsay, Banks, Reid, Page, Eden-Monaro, Parramatta, Dobell, Kingsford Smith, Werriwa, Barton, Richmond and McMahon, and a slightly smaller swing in Victoria that would take out Corangamite, La Trobe, Deakin and possibly Chisholm (UPDATE: I originally included McEwen, but as noted in comments, the redistribution has made this safer for Labor). Since Galaxy splits the middle in Queensland, it seems best to apply its 8 per cent swing there – which, as was noted at the time the poll was published, would leave only Kevin Rudd standing in Griffith. Gone would be Moreton, Petrie, Lilley, Capricornia, Blair, Rankin and Oxley. In Western Australia, Labor currently holds Brand on 3.3 per cent, Fremantle on 5.7 per cent and Perth on 5.9 per cent: the Newspoll and Nielsen poll swings would put the first in danger while sparing the second and third.

Results from South Australia are small-sample and inconsistent, except that they have broadly been at the higher end of the national spectrum – perhaps around 8 per cent. However, this is coming off the high base of last year’s election, which gave Labor very handy buffers in a swathe of traditionally marginal seats. The lowest Labor margins are 5.7 per cent in Hindmarsh (where Labor has weakened relatively over the last two elections), 7.7 per cent in Adelaide, 12.0 per cent in Wakefield, 12.2 per cent in Makin and 13.9 per cent in Kingston. The last three seats, remarkably, were all in Liberal hands as recently as 2007.

Owing to insufficient sample size, neither Newspoll nor Nielsen provides state-level breakdowns for Tasmania. We did however have an EMRS poll from Bass a month ago which pointed to a 9 per cent Liberal swing, but this was from a small sample of 300 and there were questions raised about its methodology. A swing of that size would nonetheless be enough to take out Bass (6.7 per cent) and its neighbour Braddon (7.5 per cent). The territories of course are pretty much excluded from the polling picture altogether, although Warren Snowdon’s hold on Lingiari in the Northern Territory would have to be open to question given its margin of 3.7 per cent.

None of this should be read as a prediction: first term governments notwithstanding, its a rare government that doesn’t plumb mid-term polling depths far removed from the result eventually produced by the election. This is especially so in the modern environment, when weakening party loyalties have produced an ever-swelling contingent of swinging voters. Even so, the drumbeat consistency of dire results for Labor since April is hard to ignore, and it has no precedent for any government which lived to tell the tale. Labor’s leads during the early part of Mark Latham’s shooting star trajectory were never higher than 55-45; only once in early 2001 did Kim Beazley get as high as 57-43, and was usually solidly lower; and the relevant Newspolls for the great Houdini act of modern federal politics, Paul Keating’s win in 1993, look fairly benign compared with Gillard’s recent numbers. The Fightback! polls which toppled Hawke at the end of 1991 were in the order of 56-44 and 57-43, and Keating wrestled them back to the low fifties by March. Only from November 1991 to February 1992, after John Hewson remodelled his GST to exclude food and clothing, did the Coalition reach such peaks again.

Another lesson from history is that when the electorate ejects Labor from office, it tends to do with a force which the conservative parties are spared. With few exceptions (a handful of those in New South Wales plus Brand, Lingiari and arguably Oxley, which Pauline Hanson won in 1996 as a disendorsed Liberal), the seats listed as Labor losses on the current results have all been lost to them before.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,134 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  1. [SpaceKidette Space Kidette
    The #lolstralian headlines should read: Polls show Regime-Change media campaign a spectacular success. #murdochracy #abbottlies #mediafail
    ]

  2. God morning Bludgers.
    Another day where there is nothing worthwhile to post from the Aussie newspapers. The OO is in full anti-Gillard flight.

  3. Good Morning BK, to paraphrase Danny Boy,

    The Sun is shining beautifully at Bradfield and why do i have the urge to burst out ….. oh what a beautiful morning ………… oh what a beautiful day ………….. and no fuggin politics for a change

  4. Bludgers,

    Hang in there. Really has anything changed. Is CP legislation yet?

    Unfortunately for JG she has lead the govt at a time it was trying to get reform with the longest lead time. We will start to clear the decks on those soon.

    Mr RAbbotts offering come 2013 election are going to be unpalatable and undoable and he is coming under increasing pressure from within his own party re; core liberal policies.

    There is still a long way to go.

    But there is one change I reckon they could make and SHOULD make: Boot their current media advisors. They are totally ineffective.

  5. Finns
    Too right! It’s a nice day here too. I just heard one of the horses thundering up the paddock and the birds a-singin’.
    Life is good.
    Apart from some common topics of our conversations.

  6. No wonder the Market is punishing them. The Europeans are running around like a chook without head. Nobody knows what are they doing or going to do. They seem to have different position everyday and now have more positions than the Kama Sutra.

    Dont Mention The Solutions

    [Germany scuttles plan to boost rescue fund, September 27, 2011 – 6:21AM

    Germany shot down moves to boost European debt rescue funding, bursting renewed optimism on markets amid global pressure for the eurozone to stave off recession.

    As Greece languished without a date for the return of auditors blocking loans it needs to avoid default, European Union economic affairs commissioner Olli Rehn said the 440-billion-euro ($US590 billion) European Financial Stability Facility should be given “greater strength.”

    Rehn’s spokesman Amadeu Altafaj added that discussions among eurozone partners involved an “increase of the means at the EFSF’s disposal,” but German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said there was no plan to boost the fund’s actual size.
    Advertisement: Story continues below

    “We are giving it the tools so it can work if necessary,” Schaeuble said. “Then we will use it effectively — but we do not have the intention of boosting its volume,” he underlined.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/germany-scuttles-plan-to-boost-rescue-fund-20110927-1ku4u.html#ixzz1Z5qpZ62k

  7. [But there is one change I reckon they could make and SHOULD make: Boot their current media advisors. They are totally ineffective.]

    Kiddo, agree. sack the lots and just follow our advice here on PB, and it’s fuggin’ free 👿

  8. On the Newspoll…

    I was in a bearing shop yesterday buying some o-rings. It was the usual set-up, four guys manning the phones and a counter for walk-ins like me.

    They were nice guys and very helpful, no problems. I got my o-rings and for some reason I mentioned Julia Gillard in relation to the USAFTA (free Trade Agreement), something like needing a letter from her to get what I sell in the US past their Customs Dept. duty free.

    Well, off they went!

    Bloody Julia. Her? She’s Useless! etc.

    I asked why.

    After ten minutes it turned out they agreed with the pokies tax, alcopops, mining tax and 3 out 4 liked the Carbon Tax. They all had different reasons, but mostly thought Labor’s policies were pretty constructive. Thought the BER was pretty good.

    They loathed Abbott to a man.

    So why did they hate Julia, and why was Labor such a joke?

    Well, she just is.

    Is it because she’s a woman?

    They all swore no.

    Well why then?

    Not one of them could give me a concrete reason, or any reason for that matter.

    I left with the feeling that it was just the vibe. Everyone else dislikes her, it’s fashionable to do so. You can safely kick her when she’s down. A sort of lynch mob mentality.

    I remember thinking that this could be turned around. There was no substance other than a sort of social dislike of her and Labor. None of them were aware of many of the government’s achievements. When I pointed out maybe some of them had their jobs because of the BER, they agreed. One had a brother who’d worked on it and was so proud he’d invited his family along to the ribbon cutting.

    Their dislike was soft and insubstantial. It CAN be turned around.

  9. BK,

    What you have outlined is what I am experiencing and seeing. I hear the woe is me line, booting JG, but summed up with but that Tony Abbott is worse. The majority of these people are my small business clients.

  10. A confusing article in The Age, reporting a Social Cohesion survey by Monash University. In the body of the text, there’s this:

    [ But it is the toxic debate on asylum seekers that appears to have most cruelled what faith Australians have in good government – a measure that has plummeted almost 20 per cent in the past three years. ]

    -but the accompanying table shows that the number of people who rated Asylum Seekers (for or against is not specified) as their primary concern rose from 6.4% to 6.6%. How is that a rise of “almost 20 per cent in the past three years”? I make the increase a tiny bit over 3 percent. Or am I missing something?

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/national/anxiety-lack-of-trust-rising-20110926-1ktne.html#ixzz1Z5xrI1Ym

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/anxiety-lack-of-trust-rising-20110926-1ktne.html

  11. 7 SK
    [But there is one change I reckon they could make and SHOULD make: Boot their current media advisors. They are totally ineffective.]

    I wonder if this might be happening? Mytwobobsworth yesterday mentioned a session with Hawker and Morris, where Hawker more or less agreed that Gillard was gone. Couldn’t imagine Bruce saying or admitting this if he was still in the loop. It’s possible, of course, that his business may have a conflict of interest if the pubs or clubs have engaged him about pokie PR.

    I’m an outsider too long removed from the game, but I’d agree with your contention. In that position, I’d be tempted to try and drag Maxine McKew into the loop (along with her partner Bob Hogg, an excellent strategist) assuming she’s still supportive after the Rudd debacle.

    I think that’s the main aspect that needs work at present. A minor ministerial shake-up might help, but it needs to be on the backburner until carbon pricing is bedded down.

    I’d agree with Andrew Elder about Arbib and sport/clubs. How could he miss that one in NSW and still be considered savvy? Still, even that is not worth a fight for now.

  12. Hawker, is like rich, one the other generation and was. That on sky,
    And. With respect my to seems to like stories about her own party
    In the negative. She is a big scroll by for me,she be used and dare to tread,
    Make one depressed

  13. In regards to media advisors, the OO ran this story a couple of days ago…

    JULIA Gillard has hired a former Tony Blair strategist to head her media team.

    The appointment was announced to staff yesterday and he will replace Russell Mahoney, who stepped down from the role last month to become one of Ms Gillard’s foreign-affairs advisers.

    Mr McTernan was Mr Blair’s director of political operations after working as a senior policy adviser.

    He was one of a number of Mr Blair’s staff who were interviewed by British police over the cash-for-peerages scandal in 2006, but authorities did not charge him.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/ex-blair-staffer-to-head-gillards-media-team/story-fn59niix-1226144916949

  14. Ozy. Had the same experience in the. Bank now that’s a very conservative area,
    Related,thee story. Glen. Told me it was very dubious. I wonder would he say. That. To

    Bb

  15. Have any of you guys heard about a bus convoy organised from Sydney to Port Macquarie on federal election night 2013 to celebrate the removal of Rob Oakeshotte?

  16. BB @18
    [Their dislike was soft and insubstantial. It CAN be turned around.]

    A tiny sample, of course, but I think it represents a perception broadly out there. And I’d agree that it can be turned around. Carbon pricing compensation will help. A lot of it is fear and uncertainty, transformed into a “Bloody Gillard” attitude/response.

    I was encouraged some months ago when I viewed a Big Ideas session by a marketing guru on how it could be turned around. She (yes it was a ‘she’ and very impressive) said that for political leaders it was largely a case of lowering expectations but delivering on important things, plus maybe delivering a little more than might reasonably be expected.

    She related some of Howard’s electoral success to that style. It’s an interesting theory, and looking at the crashes of Rudd and Obama (maybe Whitlam, too, from an earlier time) after carrying such high expectations, not unreasonable.

    On that score, Gillard is not badly placed. Because of the constant negativism by Abbott and the media, there are pretty low expectations of what can be achieved/has been achieved. I’m sure Swan’s gong came as a shock to many who like the Liberals viewed him as a dud. It explains why Hockey put on that ridiculous xenophobic act.

    Time will be the biggest friend for Gillard and Labor. As achievements are marked off, it will become a lot harder to sustain the perception that this is a useless or failed government. Oakeshott was right on qanda last night. I’ll go out on a limb and suggest he’ll retain Lyne despite all the polling bullying he’s currently facing.

  17. Finns. Why did germans change their mind and what. Do u think is the next dice to fall in europe or
    The next. Ches move

    This could also play out that the gov will have to step up again, if so how will this do u thinkeffect the gov here for example will. Aa. And joe say. No no this can only effect. Europe

    Is this slipping under the radar on this blog, also

  18. BB
    [I left with the feeling that it was just the vibe. Everyone else dislikes her, it’s fashionable to do so. You can safely kick her when she’s down. A sort of lynch mob mentality.

    I remember thinking that this could be turned around. There was no substance other than a sort of social dislike of her and Labor. None of them were aware of many of the government’s achievements. When I pointed out maybe some of them had their jobs because of the BER, they agreed. One had a brother who’d worked on it and was so proud he’d invited his family along to the ribbon cutting.

    Their dislike was soft and insubstantial. It CAN be turned around]
    I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. The only way it can be turned round is if the msm change their message about the PM. They’re driving the negativity. As well as continually harping on policy they fill the sideshow with negative drivel about her appearance or her worthless partner.

    Will they change, not likely; that’d be too much egg on too many faces.

  19. GD,

    The electoral cycle in Australia forces Governments to make all their initiatives and unpopular decisons in the first year. The second year is for bedding down and fine tuning and the third is for reaping the benefits and cosying up to the electorate to ask for another term.

    Indeed, Gillard will be thinking that “Time is on my side”.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XzcWwmwChVE

  20. Has anyone found or heard of an apology by Grattan for false reporting yesterday re: clubs?
    Instead of being an elder stateswoman of the press gallery she is a joke.
    And this is where ABC comes into play.
    If there were someone other than Scott in charge, he/she should be able to say to Fran Kelly wtte “… Grattan is not employed by this organisation, she is not a quality journalist, I don’t want to have her on your show anymore. And if you don’t like that and if you don’t lift your own game then pack your own bags.”
    One or two egs like this by the head of ABC would soon change the culture. Wasn’t there a problem with Scott not so long ago that suggested he may need to answer some questions himself?
    Conroy should be pushing for some changes at ABC.

  21. How about this. Why don’t we have all the media administerd by Stevie C’s office. That way we could only have Government friendly information.

  22. Good morning, Bludgers.

    Not often our “No Central” city is among the first at anything but ….

    We’re among first to get fast net

    [TOOWOOMBA residents living near the central business district will be some of the first in the country to benefit from Telstra’s new super-fast 4G LTE mobile broadband network.

    As of today, customers in the 4G coverage areas will have access to typical download speeds up to 10 times faster than the current 3G speeds.

    Toowoomba skin cancer doctor Peter Bourne has been trialling the new network for the past week and said the faster connection speeds would greatly affect the way his business operated.

    “As a skin cancer doctor I have to transfer high-quality images to other specialists in Brisbane or even Europe on a regular basis,” he said.

    “The images have to be crystal clear so you can zoom in and inspect the cancer, and with the new network it makes it so much quicker and easier to send large files.]

    Yep, being a major Defence Forces, medical, educational etc rural centre does help; so I imagine other such centres are also on the new mobile BB. The way Peter Bourne’s using it is a glimpse of where e’medicine is going, especially in allowing online regional/ state/ national/ international specialist medical teams to guide local medics through operations and other medical treatment, even during accident-site treatment.

    By this time next year the area should be on NBN-fibre optic, but remote areas – and travellers through them – will still need the mobile service for medical, search and other needs throughout the Wide Brown Land.

    Roll on NBN. Onya Steve C. Onya Rudd/Gillard governments

  23. Gorgeous Dunny @ 34:

    [ Time will be the biggest friend for Gillard and Labor. As achievements are marked off, it will become a lot harder to sustain the perception that this is a useless or failed government. ]

    -agreed. Over time, the weight of good legislation -and carbon price compensation- will tip the scales back towards level, at least.

  24. RNM1953
    Posted Tuesday, September 27, 2011 at 8:10 am

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/09/27/newspoll-quarterly-breakdowns-2/comment-page-1/#comment-1038002

    [Has anyone found or heard of an apology by Grattan for false reporting yesterday re: clubs?
    Instead of being an elder stateswoman of the press gallery she is a joke.
    And this is where ABC comes into play.
    If there were someone other than Scott in charge, he/she should be able to say to Fran Kelly wtte “… Grattan is not employed by this organisation, she is not a quality journalist, I don’t want to have her on your show anymore. And if you don’t like that and if you don’t lift your own game then pack your own bags.”]

    Some news for you, RNM, and none of it good …

    […Radio National Breakfast, which is having its airtime increased by half an hour each weekday]

    http://www.eurekastreet.com.au/article.aspx?aeid=28379

    Their ABC clearly has an attitude about what to do with/about much complained-about presenters!

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