Newspoll: 61-39 to LNP in Queensland

The latest quarterly state Newspoll result for Queensland has the Liberal National Party opposition maintaining an overwhelming lead over the 13-year-old government, of 61-39 on two-party preferred (up from 60-40 last time). The emergence of Bob Katter’s Australian Party appears to have swollen the “others” vote by four points to 15 per cent, sending both major parties down on the primary vote: Labor by four points to 27 per cent, and the LNP by one to a still formidable 50 per cent. The Greens are up a point to 8 per cent. Campbell Newman’s uncommitted rating is falling as he raises his public profile, but clearly it’s not all going his way: his disapproval rating is up five points to 27 per cent but his approval is up only one, to a still very handy 51 per cent. Anna Bligh is down two on approval to 38 per cent and up two on disapproval to 52 per cent. The preferred premier situation is little different from last time, Newman’s lead shifting from 49-35 to 48-34.

Career opportunities for aspiring Queensland Labor politicians are clearly going to be thin on the ground for a few years to come, so there is considerable interest in preselections caused by the retirement of sitting members. These are detailed below – a review of LNP preselections will follow with the next Queensland state poll release.

Lytton (Labor 12.2%): Deputy Premier Paul Lucas’s recently announced he would be vacating his Brisbane bayside seat at the next election. Michael McKenna of The Australian reports the battle to succeed him is between Peter Cumming, who represents Wynnun Manly ward on Brisbane City Council, and Stephen Beckett, deputy chief-of-staff to Anna Bligh and husband of Brisbane council opposition leader Shayne Sutton. Cumming and Beckett are respectively aligned with the Left and the AWU Right.

Mundingburra (Labor 6.6%): Labor’s candidate to fill the vacancy created in this southern Townsville seat by the retirement of Lindy Nelson-Carr is Mark Harrison of the Electrical Trades Union, which has been at loggerheads with the government over privatisation. A deal to maintain the factional status quo in seats where sitting members were retiring appeared to put Harrison in the preselection box seat, but he initially lost the ballot to former Thuringowa councillor Paul Fletcher of the AWU/Labor Forum. However, this was overturned on a recount caused by head office upholding a challenge against the setting aside of ballots which had been deemed incorrectly marked (accounting for nine out of a total of 48).

Cairns (Labor 4.2%): Cairns will be vacated at the election by the retirement of former Local Government Minister Desley Boyle. Labor’s new candidate is Kirsten Lesina, who was elected to Cairns Regional Council at the age of 21 in 2008. Lesina won an April preselection contest against Ritchie Bates, an organiser with the Left faction Rail Tram and Bus Union. Bates’s opposition to the government’s privatisation program reportedly made him the favourite of the local branches, but the addition of the union delegate vote produced a tie which Anna Bligh resolved in Lesina’s favour. This preserved the factional status quo, with both Boyle and Lesina being members of the AWU/Labor Forum faction.

Rockhampton (Labor 17.9%): Retiring ministerial veteran minister Robert Schwarten successfully threw his weight behind former army officer Bill Byrne, who also had the support of Anna Bligh. Byrne was opposed by a fellow member of Labor Unity, Q-Build worker Martin Flanagan, who according to the Morning Bulletin withdrew his nomination after losing the local rank-and-file vote. Flanagan had enough of a share of head office’s half of the vote that he would have won the endorsement if he had proceeded, but he and Byrne had mutually agreed that the branches should determine the result.

Stretton (Labor 9.5%): With the retirement of Stephen Robertson, this southern Brisbane seat will be contested by Duncan Pegg, a National Union of Workers organiser aligned with the AWU/Labor Forum. According to local newspaper the Southern Star, it had earlier been expected the endorsement would go to David Forde, Roberton’s former electorate officer, campaign manager and Left faction colleague, but he is instead running as an independent. Forde reportedly had a falling-out with the party, which occurred shortly after the Sunday Mail aired accusations he had “screamed” at a fellow electorate officer (who happened to be the daughter of Bob Hawke’s Deputy Prime Minister, Brian Howe). Forde says this related to an incident which occurred many years earlier, and that it emerged when it did as part of a smear campaign against him.

Logan (Labor 13.9%): Legislative Assembly Speaker John Mickel announced in August that he would be vacating his outer southern metropolitan seat. Mickel and Anna Bligh decisively threw their weight behind Linus Power, a party organiser and AWU Right faction member who was earlier discussed as a future successor to Anthony Chisholm as state secretary.

Sunnybank (Labor 10.8%): With the retirement of Judy Spence, the preselection for this southern Brisbane seat emerged as a battle between Spence-backed Adam Obeid of Labor Unity and the Left’s Megan Jones/Bishop, who was supported by Spence’s long-time antagonist Anna Bligh. Despite earlier reports that the local branches were likely to defy Bligh, Bishop prevailed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

21 thoughts on “Newspoll: 61-39 to LNP in Queensland”

  1. I shall repost my comment from the main thread.

    I notice that there was 4% growth in other. I am guessing that this is Katter`s party. It appears at least on the surface that is currently the ALP they are taking more votes from (3% to 1% with 1% ALP to Green).

    While the last elections preferences are the usual determinant of the best way to allocate opinion poll preferences the Katter Party would have some effect on that this time. I presume that the Katter party would poll higher if if was on the list of parties that were mentioned in the question.

  6. The most recent Nielsen poll showed a boost to Federal Labor in both Victoria and New South Wales, two states that have recently elected Coalition governments.

    Looks like Gillard will be secretly cheering on the Coalition and Abbott hoping a few more votes go to Cpt Bligh.

  7. Qld joins NSW and Federal ALP with a primary starting with a 2, and about 1 in 4 people voting for them.

    I think it is a clear sign of a cataclysmic problems for the ALP

    Son of foro – Federal ALP has lost votes in Victoria from the last newspoll, for the first time the Liberals also has a 2pp led in Victoria.

    I guess you can call Victorians slower then the rest of Australia

  8. Hi Dovif

    I was referring specifically to a Nielsen graph which appeared here yesterday. It showed an upward trend in Vic and NSW. I know other polls have different results. Just a lighthearted quip, no more.

    Victorians may be slower than the rest of Australia because of the extra week of footy and having to listen to Eddie McGuire. I’m sure they’ll be right next week.

  9. Its good to see the wide range of candidates that the ALP chooses from for the upcoming election. Bascially either an AWU union official, or non-AWU union official. And people wonder why they are struggling to get one in four voters to support them nationwide. As Rodney Cavalier and Barry Cohen have said recently, they wouldn;t be selected as candidates for the “modern” ALP – neither would Whitlam. I know all of the apologists will rant against this post, but unless and until you chose from a wider cohort of candidates, you cannot appeal widely to the voting public.

  10. Son of foro
    Posted Wednesday, September 28, 2011 at 3:18 pm | Permalink
    Hi Dovif

    …
    Victorians may be slower than the rest of Australia because of the extra week of footy and having to listen to Eddie McGuire. I’m sure they’ll be right next week.

    🙂

  11. How many sitting ALP members are not recontesting in Qld? The NSW election very much showed the importance of incumbancy in helping the ALP retain seats.

  14. 6628

    If your only complaint is the way. The pm speaks u don’t have to worry to much and neither do your family.

    But with abbott his lack of policy and that he mostly does nt talk with out uming and Uri g ‘
    And what he says says, is nothing one can understand re policy and what he would say and if. Pm

    now for thinking people that enjoy the here and now standard of living. YOU,and we enjoy now.

    Well that is a worry. Its. Not what u say. Its often whar. Is. Not said,

  15. It seems to me that the problem is the AWU and how they do politics. They see the left of the party as their opposition and not the Liberals. All their orientation is about getting power and keeping it. They are not interested in policy or principles. Most of the electorate sees only them as the Labor party in action. I am not a member of the Labor party because of their dominance of the party. From what I hear their young members are even worse than the older ones and form alliances with Liberals and call themselves libertarians and will personally smear their opponents as a political tactic. None of this gives me hope for the future of Labor.

  16. Yes david. There is a suspicious looking truck hole digger and bitumen. Near. Our. Daughters
    On. The west. Side of. The. River. I near ly. Stopped. And ask. Them, must. Say. The. Are doing. A wonderful job. Replacing the road, it. Wasn’t. Pipe. It. Was. More. Like. Very. Heavy. Rubber. With something in side it. It could. Of been. Gas. Though

  17. My Say, if you are posting from an iPad, only put ONE space after each word. When you type two spaces it starts a new sentence by adding a full stop and capitalising the first letter of the following word.

    It is very annoying to read.

  18. Things are hotting up in Queensland:

    Queensland Deputy Premier Andrew Fraser has referred Liberal National Party (LNP) leader Campbell Newman to the Crime and Misconduct Commission (CMC) over his personal financial interests.

    Mr Fraser said he referred the opposition leader to the CMC late on Wednesday following reports he may have breached the City of Brisbane Act while he was lord mayor, by not declaring all relevant financial interests during his tenure.

    “It is appropriate for the CMC to investigate these allegations further,” Mr Fraser said in a statement to AAP.

    The opposition leader released a short statement on Wednesday evening.

    “I am more than happy to cooperate fully with any investigation, should they choose to undertake one,” it read.

    “As the matter is now before the CMC it would be inappropriate to comment further.”

    The move comes after Mr Newman said he and his wife might give up some of their financial interests because of continued government attacks.

    He called a press conference on Wednesday amid new media reports about his personal finances.

    The Courier-Mail newspaper reported a family company, Frome Holdings, owns two beachfront units in a luxury complex at Port Douglas that rent for up to $500 a night.

    Mr Newman is a shareholder in the company.

    The government has been calling on Mr Newman to make a full declaration of his pecuniary interests and those of his wife Lisa.

    The call followed revelations a company linked to his wife had touted unsuccessfully for up to $30 million-a-year of disaster-related state government business after January’s floods.

    Mr Newman released an updated interest register on September 22. It includes Frome Holdings but does not directly disclose the two Port Douglas units.

    Mr Newman told the press conference he did not need to declare the units because he did not receive any income from them, despite being a shareholder of Frome Holdings.

    He said he and his wife were now considering severing their ties with family entities because of the media attention generated by “Anna Bligh’s dirt unit”.

    He said his wife would make her own decision on that.

    “She’s an independent, strong-willed woman,” he told reporters on the Gold Coast.

    “It’s not up to me and would be inappropriate for me as a husband to tell her what to do, but that is something she’ll consider.

    “I say quite happily today that I’m more than happy to relinquish my share in my mother’s company.

    “And Lisa, I would imagine, would be happy to relinquish her directorship, and we can do that today, and that just shows we have no financial interest in this matter.”

    Mr Newman accused the government of sleazy actions in helping generate stories on his family’s financial interests.

    “Queensland is run today by drunks, punks and desperados, headed by Anna Bligh with her dirt unit,” he said.

    But Deputy Premier Andrew Fraser said the government only wanted Mr Newman to adhere to the same rules as MPs, even though the former Brisbane lord mayor is yet to be elected to parliament.

    “In the end, Queenslanders are entitled to know what his financial interests are because it’s directly relevant to the way he would do the job,” Mr Fraser said.

    He acknowledged Mr Newman was not legally obligated to release the information as he was only a candidate, but he said there should be no reason why he wouldn’t.

    – Source: ninemsn

  19. @dovif/7,

    13 years is along time for QLD ALP.

    QLD is having the same problem as NSW ALP, been in power too long.

    The same will happen with LNP/Coalition/Liberals when they get to that stage.

  20. Just looking at the retiring ALP seats (on the safe end, anyway) the ALP should move Andrew Fraser to one of them. He may be a good future leader but his current seat is held by a bit too thin of a 2PP margin.

  21. It appears ReachTel have done a Robo-Poll of Ashgrove

    LNP leader Campbell Newman’s popularity with Ashgrove voters has dipped slightly in the past month according to an overnight telephone poll of more than 500 voters in the state’s most watched electorates.

    Automatic phone polling company ReachTEL received responses from 539 voters last night, showing the Mr Newman’s primary vote had dropped by 1.3 per cent of the vote since a similar poll taken last month.

    According to the poll, Mr Newman would win the seat without the need of preferences, attracting an election-winning 53.5 per cent of the primary vote.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/newman-heading-to-easy-victory-poll-20111006-1lbdu.html#ixzz1a3uQ3Whv

    Here is the ReachTel blog

    http://www.reachtel.com.au/blogs/07/10/2011/the-battle-for-ashgrove-kate-jones-vs-campbell-newman

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