No Morgan poll this week, so I’ll instead relate the results of the latest semi-regular (about three times a year) Australian National University Social Research Centre phone survey of around 1200 respondents on a range of matters other than voting intention, conducted between April 27 and May 10. The special subject chosen for this survey was gambling, and it found 74 per cent support for mandatory pre-commitment measures as advocated by Andrew Wilkie, with 70 per cent expressing agreement that gambling should be more tightly controlled (so at least 4 per cent offered the counter-intuitive response that they favoured the former but not the latter). Against this, 42 per cent took the view that “the government has no right to restrict a person’s gambling”. There were slightly fewer supporters for mandatory pre-commitment among those who identified as regular gamblers, but they were still in a substantial majority.
As always, respondents were also asked to nominate the first and second most important problems facing Australia today, and to rate their satisfaction with how the country is heading on a five-point scale. The latter question produced almost identical results to the previous survey: 51 per cent satisfied and 12 per cent very satisfied, against only 20 per cent dissatisfied and 7 per cent very dissatisfied. The “most important problems” question is best examined from a long view: the following chart adds responses for “most important” to “second most important” for six of the issues canvassed, going back to the first such survey in early 2008.
By far the outstanding feature is a GFC-inspired spike in economy/jobs which washed out of the system at around the time Labor’s federal poll numbers began to tank. The scale of this obscures some of the trends in other categories: a steady descent in environment from 30 per cent to the high teens, an escalation in immigration from barely into double figures to its present place in the low thirties, and an apparently mounting concern – traceable, it seems, to the first half of last year – that government should be, in whatever sense, “better”.
Another recent poll result that has so far gone unmentioned here is from Essential Research, which occasionally holds back on questions from its regular polling for exclusive use by the Ten Network. This one is yet another humiliating leadership poll for Julia Gillard, who trails Kevin Rudd 37 per cent to 12 per cent on the question of preferred Labor leader. The commonly raised objection that such figures are skewed by mischievous Coalition supporters is dealt with by the fact that Rudd leads by 43 per cent to 31 per cent even among Labor supporters. Speaking of mischief, Malcolm Turnbull and Bob Brown were also thrown into the mix, respectively scoring 11 per cent and 3 per cent. However, it’s hard to say exactly what respondents were making of their inclusion: Turnbull was far behind Rudd among Coalition voters, and Brown was far behind both Rudd and Gillard among Greens voters. Of the Labor also-rans, Stephen Smith recorded 7 per cent, Greg Combet 2 per cent and Bill Shorten 1 per cent.
Besides which:
• The parliamentary library has published a paper by Murray Goot and Ian Watson with the self-explanatory title, “Population, immigration and asylum seekers: patterns in Australian public opinion”. Exhaustively reviewing public opinion measurement dating back to the late 1970s, they find that while opposition to immigration has increased since 2005, it is still lower than it was in the 1980s and the early 1990s. The fall in the intervening period is put down to declining unemployment, while the rise since has been driven by boat arrivals. Opposition to immigration is nonetheless found to be primarily environmentally rather than economically motivated – though racial motivation is, it seems, placed in pollsters’ too-hard baskets. The archetype of the immigration opponent is Australian-or-British born, of low income and education, and lives in public housing – though in defiance of other stereotypes, they are more likely to be female than male, and as likely to live in inner as outer metropolitan areas.
• Fairfax economics writer Peter Martin reviews the literature on that hottest of topics, the impact of media partisanship on voting behaviour. His broad conclusion is that while newspapers have very little impact, “television and radio are different”.
• Antony Green examines data on above-the-line voting patterns for the Legislative Council at the recent-ish New South Wales state election. The system here differs from the Senate in that voters can sequentially number as many parties as they choose above-the-line, after which their vote exhausts. Voters are thus spared the farce of having their preferences allocated in full by their one nominated party. The figures show that despite the different rules, voters continue to follow habits acquired from the Senate, with 82.2 per cent voting for one party above the line: 15.6 per cent numbered multiple parties above the line, with the remaining 2.2 per cent voting below the line. Antony reckons that if this system were adopted for the Senate, the high number of exhausted votes “would make the filling of the final Senate seat in each state a regular lottery rather than the occasional lottery under the current group ticket voting system”. However, I can’t see this myself: looking at the last two elections, each state elected four to five Senators off quotas derived from the primary vote, and after that major party and Greens candidates had easily enough in the way of surpluses to see off any micro-party chancers who might have been in the race for the final one or two seats (I await to hear where I’ve gone wrong here). However, double dissolution elections would be a different matter.
• Ben Raue at New Matilda and Peter Brent at Mumble review the Mike Rann situation. The timing may remain farcically up in the air, but the smart money says that South Australia will sooner or later be looking at simultaneous by-elections for Rann’s seat of Ramsay and his former deputy Kevin Foley’s seat of Port Adelaide. Defeat in both would cut the government’s majority from five seats to one: luckily for them, the respective margins are 18.0 per cent and 12.8 per cent. However, safe seats often prove the most vulnerable to high-profile independents, and Antony points to Max James (who polled 11.0 per cent at the election last year) and Port Adelaide-Enfield mayor Gary Johanson as possible contenders in Port Adelaide. A Liberal strategy of boosting independent challengers by declining to field a candidate is complicated by the fact that the swing they require there is not quite beyond the realms of possibility.
• If having the government’s majority chipped away through by-election defeats doesn’t do it for you, Family First MLC Robert Brokenshire is introducing a bill to the South Australian parliament allowing for early “recall” elections in the event that a petition calling for one is signed by 150,000 people within 30 days of its initiation.
• Malcolm Mackerras reviews some election timing history in Crikey. Also from Mackerras: a month or two ago I raised an eyebrow when he professed himself “quite confident in predicting there will be no by-elections during the current term”, since “Members of Parliament do not die these days”. On July 6 he offered a follow-up in the Canberra Times, which fleshed out the point that deaths of sitting parliamentarians have become a lot less common:
The essential reason is the generosity these days of parliamentary superannuation schemes and the ease with which former politicians get good jobs post-politics. In the past the typical politician expected to fail in the employment market post-politics. Since parliamentary salaries were good there was a great incentive for the politician to stay in his seat for as long as possible. Also medical advances mean that longer lives are now normal. A current Labor member in any of about 30 marginal seats killed in a car crash would, of course, wreck the Gillard Government. Surely Labor could not win a by-election in such a circumstance. However, such an occurrence is very unlikely.
UPDATE (8/7/11): Bernard Keane at Crikey reports Essential Research has the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, now leading 57-43. On the primary vote the Coalition has gained a point to 50 per cent and Labor is down one to 30 per cent. In the event of “another global financial crisis”, 43 per cent would more trust the Coalition to handle it against 27 per cent for Labor. Also:
The survey also revealed remarkable levels of ignorance about the numbers of asylum seekers coming to Australia. 36% of voters believe that the number of asylum seekers arriving by boat has “increased a lot” in the past 12 months, and 26% say it has “increased a little”, with 20% saying numbers have stayed the same. Only 7% of voters believe the number of asylum seekers has fallen. When told that the number of asylum seekers arriving by boat has fallen by more than half this year, the proportion of people “very concerned” about asylum seekers falls from 43% to 33% and those “a little” or “not at all” concerned goes from from 30% to 39%.
UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here.
This little black duck
[blackburnpseph,
In the South African pollies it was natural. For John Howard it was an art to be cultivated. JWH, as a human being in that particular respect, was worse.]
Then there is the embarassing little point for banana benders. The apartheid system’s core Pass Laws owed oh so much to what the visiting NP Seffa’s learnt from Queensland’s laws re Aborigines in the immediate post war years.
[Then there is the embarassing little point for banana benders. The apartheid system’s core Pass Laws owed oh so much to what the visiting NP Seffa’s learnt from Queensland’s laws re Aborigines in the immediate post war years.]
True
but unlike the sith africans
we realised our system was wrong alonga time afore ’em
Bk @ 2398
That is quite a good summary of the options.
BBS
Thanks. Any more options?
[gusface
Posted Monday, August 8, 2011 at 7:45 pm | Permalink
Then there is the embarassing little point for banana benders. The apartheid system’s core Pass Laws owed oh so much to what the visiting NP Seffa’s learnt from Queensland’s laws re Aborigines in the immediate post war years.
True
but unlike the sith africans
we realised our system was wrong alonga time afore ‘em
]
But they now live in WA – and Helped elect Colin Barnett and this:
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/boot-camp-push-for-young-offenders/story-e6frg14c-1226111131392
[Gusface, that’s now how this place works.]
“this place” works because opinions, openly held or espoused for trolling purposes, are expressed.
It works even better because the trolls are being readily identified for what they are.
Some may find the level of moderation not Goldilocks. I do. We read what we like.
I think the government should seriously consider reducing the 4 pillars policy of our financial system to at least 3.
The big 4 are NOT big enough to take advantage of the global circumstances and make worthwhile acquisitions to the benefit of our economy for when the world recovers.
And some here were suggesting a break down of our financial institutions lol.
[Then there is the embarassing little point for banana benders. The apartheid system’s core Pass Laws owed oh so much to what the visiting NP Seffa’s learnt from Queensland’s laws re Aborigines in the immediate post war years.]
So what has that got to do with John Howard?
Wayne Swan going hard on Chris Uhlmann.
BK @ 2404
Another option
Give Christmas Island back to the Singaporeans so that boats have to come a lot further.
[blackburnpseph
Posted Monday, August 8, 2011 at 7:48 pm | Permalink
Then there is the embarassing little point for banana benders. The apartheid system’s core Pass Laws owed oh so much to what the visiting NP Seffa’s learnt from Queensland’s laws re Aborigines in the immediate post war years.
So what has that got to do with John Howard?
]
John Howard pandered to them by allowing mass migration from Seth Effrka on “Compassionate Grounds” And boy have they repaid him electorally, especially in WA.
You’re a funny man centre.
BBS
Lateral thinking there.
Gusface
[I’ll let that go to the keeper.
srsly
one is a stinking cesspit, the other one of the most vibrant countries in SE asia
politically I would prefer to be friends with malaysia ahead of nauru]
Sorry the sarcasm did not carry. I agree with you re Malaya vs Nauru. For a start I heard an interview with a leader of a bunch of Malay lawyers who are protesting and outraged at what Australia is doing. There are people there fighting the good fight. Malaysians are not just a bunch of barbarians as so much of our media seem to tell us.Meanwhile in Nauru history tell us money solves all problems.
“I don’t accept that” is becoming the standard government line.
“Are you considering postponing the carbon tax?” I think CU needs early retirement, or was it a DD?
BK
I thought I was giving suggestions at 2354
bbs
I suggest you look into howies pater
the family holdings in PNG may be relevant
[Wayne Swan going hard on Chris Uhlmann.]
But how can that be, I keep reading here on PB that Swan is not upto the job. Again lol.
Wayne Swan doesn’t do humour well but he pushes facts.
[BK
I thought I was giving suggestions at 2354]
daretotread
Yes, I see you did offer a potential solution. Complex, but whatever happens it won’t be simple.
Mine is certainly not offensive. The point I was making is that our oppressors believed in the apartheid system and therefore there actions came from genuine belief. The system was appalling, and I was a victim of that system. You guys will never know what it is like to be brainwashed into thinking that as a black person we were inferior to a white man. We were educated daily that we were second grade citizens and many many of us honestly began to believe that white man was superior to us. But this is what the Afrikaner honestly believed in. He was wrong but it was in his heart and mind.
John Howard on the other hand has made good people hate others just because they are boat people. In my book I cannot fully describe to how I hate this man.
Okay, then let them go. The minerals are not going anywhere and maybe our grand-kids can sell them for a decent return.
If mining companies want to conduct operations in a “First World” country, then they should contribute some of the profits to help with the costs of such a country. Then again, if they want to mine in a “3rd World” country they should contribute some of the profits to meet the development needs of such a country.
However, there is little chance of that if Australia cannot manage to end its involvement in this reverse auction, which is probably the whole point of the opposition to our MRSPT.
Well said Puff!
Peeps on Christmas Island being interviewed. Are they “humanitarians” or worried about their jobs?
[John Howard pandered to them by allowing mass migration from Seth Effrka on “Compassionate Grounds” And boy have they repaid him electorally, especially in WA.]
Well Frank, I hope you have made a vow that a Boerewors will never pass your lips.
I’ll respond to that Jackol if ever you loons can develop some economic substance to argue against it.
Wouldn’t it be great if the CBA could make another killing like they did with Bankwest but with an international acquisition therefore more profits for Australians?
Should happen. Good economic conservative policy.
[AUSTRALIANS would no longer have to pay accommodation bonds or sell family homes to pay for aged care under a new regime proposed by the Productivity Commission.
But if elderly Australians decided to sell their home to pay for their accommodation needs in their final years, they would no longer lose the age pension, the commission’s landmark report into the aged care sector recommends.]
My grandmother went into care earlier this year, and not only had to sell her home to raise the bond, but the facility takes most of her pension as well. She should’ve had care years ago, but refused any intervention because of the financial upheaval and impost involved.
I like the idea of a cap on payments as well. The PC has done well with its recommendations in my view.
[2425
blackburnpseph
Posted Monday, August 8, 2011 at 7:56 pm | Permalink
John Howard pandered to them by allowing mass migration from Seth Effrka on “Compassionate Grounds” And boy have they repaid him electorally, especially in WA.
Well Frank, I hope you have made a vow that a Boerewors will never pass your lips.
Two Words.
Mathaias Cormann – while not Seth Effrikan – he spouts many a viewpoint supported by them
Leigh and Heather are stirring the pot. It’s the colour and movement thing.
Looks like the AAA rating downgrade is forcing a bit of reality in the land of the free.
USA RECESSION The recession has hit everybody really hard…
[My neighbour got a pre-declined credit card in the mail.
Wives are having sex with their husbands because they can’t afford batteries.
CEO’s are now playing miniature golf.
Exxon-Mobil laid off 25 Congressmen.
A stripper was killed when her audience showered her with rolls of pennies while she danced.
I saw a Mormon with only one wife.
If the bank returns your check marked “Insufficient Funds,” you call them and ask if they meant you or them.
McDonald’s is selling the 1/4 ouncer.
Angelina Jolie adopted a child from America.
Parents in Beverly Hills fired their nannies and learnt their children’s’ names.
My cousin had an exorcism but couldn’t afford to pay for it, and they re-possessed her!
A truckload of Americans was caught sneaking into Mexico.
A picture is now only worth 200 words.
When Bill and Hillary travel together, they now have to share a room.
The Treasure Island Casino in Las Vegas is now managed by Somali Pirates.]
[“I don’t accept that” is becoming the standard government line.]
Plus ‘I don’t accept the premise of your question’.
Doesn’t that just speak volumes!
“And that’s the program for the night.” Praise be to Dawkins!
I’m waiting for the transcript to pop up, but Ceravanti Wells was all over the place on Aged Care.
The government should act immediately. The Opposition, however, didn’t have a policy in place, because it was consulting. But the government should already have consulted (shouldn’t the Opposition) and should act now. Even though the Opposition didn’t have any ideas of its own about what the government should do. It should just act.
Feank
[John Howard pandered to them by allowing mass migration from Seth Effrka on “Compassionate Grounds” And boy have they repaid him electorally, especially in WA.]
With a double whammy for W.A. the shed loads of English refugees arriving in the 1980’s forming northern suburbs ghettoes . No doubt a coincidence that our esteemed police minister Rob “Maybe it’s becos I’m a Londoner” Johnson’s electorate is centered on these ghettoes.
[Ceravanti Wells was all over the place]
Dog bites man.
[poroti
Posted Monday, August 8, 2011 at 8:02 pm | Permalink
Feank
John Howard pandered to them by allowing mass migration from Seth Effrka on “Compassionate Grounds” And boy have they repaid him electorally, especially in WA.
With a double whammy for W.A. the shed loads of English refugees arriving in the 1980?s forming northern suburbs ghettoes . No doubt a coincidence that our esteemed police minister Rob “Maybe it’s becos I’m a Londoner” Johnson’s electorate is centered on these ghettoes.
]
Indeed, I forogt about them.
[zoomster
Posted Monday, August 8, 2011 at 8:01 pm | Permalink
I’m waiting for the transcript to pop up, but Ceravanti Wells was all over the place on Aged Care.
The government should act immediately. The Opposition, however, didn’t have a policy in place, because it was consulting. But the government should already have consulted (shouldn’t the Opposition) and should act now. Even though the Opposition didn’t have any ideas of its own about what the government should do. It should just act.
]
I believe the Fibs might not like the reforms because if I recall correctly that several former Liberal Politicians are operators of Aged Care Facilities.
[The government should act immediately.]
Would you like to compare and contrast those in need of “aged care” with asylum seekers. You want immediacy or long-term?
Puff, they pay company tax in addition to royalties now.
If it is more beneficial to their shareholders to satisfy international demand for resources from operations other than Australia, then that’s where the priority of their business activities will be.
The resources rent tax is only of benefit where their is an excess of demand.
zoomster:
Do you mean Fierrvanti Wells the coalition Senator?
Which program was she interviewed on?
[several former Liberal Politicians are operators of Aged Care Facilities.]
And Bronnie suffered from non-prescription baths.
[Given the global financial uncertainty at present it may not be a bad idea for the government to postpone or even abandon its proposed mining tax.
It should only be considered where global confidence has stabilised in my opinion.]
that would be very foolish. it is a tax on profits above a required rate of return ie 15% plus. if there is second gfc and commodity prices drop there will be no tax revenue anyway. no profits no tax.
[Jen it is high time Labor faced reality. The electorate are not happy. The polling data is telling us this]
Dareto — just tell me one thing: How does the electorate gain it’s collective opinion? Is it the actuality that has made them unhappy or is it the ‘image’ of Labor that they feel is distasteful?
because if you say ‘image’ then you must admit the primary ‘conduit’ that shows the electorate who or what a political party is/stands for/reputation … whatever … is the media.
I still maintain that the media has happily cooperated in the Liberals’ “mental abuse” in that they repeat, ad nauseum, the words/slogans/simplistic messages that the govt is ‘bad’.
The fact that they feel ‘entitled’ to also bag most public institutions like Treasury, defence and anyone else who disagrees with their themes, shows that they are anticipating that the tactic will continue to work.
Because anyone in their right mind would laugh at such comments, but the media have allowed that legitimacy by legitimising the denigration of the govt without compunction.
Gusface
[True
but unlike the sith africans
we realised our system was wrong alonga time afore ‘em]
Sort of. Up until the start of the 1960;s in the NSW’s education sytem aboriginal children could be banned from attending a school if any (white) parents objected. I remember Cathy Freeman in a doco showing how her mum had to apply to visit her family for xmas as late as the 1970’s. With the letters to and from the department to prove it.Then I remember the shock of seeing the back streets of Roebourne and Jiggalong in the early 1980’s. Whilst at the same we were urged to rage against the abhorent Apartheid regime and shown the shocking living conditions what I saw was worse than what we had been shown in Soweto.
[Leigh and Heather are stirring the pot. It’s the colour and movement thing.]
So 7:30 was it’s usual wonderfullness then 🙂
Centre –
Did nothing about the GFC strike you as disturbing? Too big to fail not ring any bells?
Our banking sector is too concentrated already, and inadequate competition is an issue. The systemic risk of one of our big banks falling over is already high. And yet you want to concentrate the banking sector more, reducing competition and increasing the systemic risk?
All in the pursuit of some mythical size advantage to allow a bigger bank to run around acquiring dodgy assets to potentially further expose our banking system to hidden risk?
I don’t think there’s an economic argument there. The only people who have -ever- advocated for our 4 pillars to be reduced to 3 or 2 have been the bankers themselves who would get a nice bonus from the M&A activity and increased profits from oligopolist behaviour.
I am extremely uncomfortable with the attitudes towards race held by certain (white) groups in South Africa being brought here. It is like adding too much salt to the stew.
Frank
[Indeed, I forogt about them]
Especially as those 1980’s “northern suburbs” are now oh so mid coast ! 🙂
[The electorate are not happy. The polling data is telling us this]
I don’t care. This government will leave a “better” electorate whether it appreciates it or not.
[I’m waiting for the transcript to pop up, but Ceravanti Wells was all over the place on Aged Care.]
She’s always all over the place.
Our own Aussie Michelle Bachmann.