No Morgan poll this week, so I’ll instead relate the results of the latest semi-regular (about three times a year) Australian National University Social Research Centre phone survey of around 1200 respondents on a range of matters other than voting intention, conducted between April 27 and May 10. The special subject chosen for this survey was gambling, and it found 74 per cent support for mandatory pre-commitment measures as advocated by Andrew Wilkie, with 70 per cent expressing agreement that gambling should be more tightly controlled (so at least 4 per cent offered the counter-intuitive response that they favoured the former but not the latter). Against this, 42 per cent took the view that “the government has no right to restrict a person’s gambling”. There were slightly fewer supporters for mandatory pre-commitment among those who identified as regular gamblers, but they were still in a substantial majority.
As always, respondents were also asked to nominate the first and second most important problems facing Australia today, and to rate their satisfaction with how the country is heading on a five-point scale. The latter question produced almost identical results to the previous survey: 51 per cent satisfied and 12 per cent very satisfied, against only 20 per cent dissatisfied and 7 per cent very dissatisfied. The “most important problems” question is best examined from a long view: the following chart adds responses for “most important” to “second most important” for six of the issues canvassed, going back to the first such survey in early 2008.
By far the outstanding feature is a GFC-inspired spike in economy/jobs which washed out of the system at around the time Labor’s federal poll numbers began to tank. The scale of this obscures some of the trends in other categories: a steady descent in environment from 30 per cent to the high teens, an escalation in immigration from barely into double figures to its present place in the low thirties, and an apparently mounting concern – traceable, it seems, to the first half of last year – that government should be, in whatever sense, “better”.
Another recent poll result that has so far gone unmentioned here is from Essential Research, which occasionally holds back on questions from its regular polling for exclusive use by the Ten Network. This one is yet another humiliating leadership poll for Julia Gillard, who trails Kevin Rudd 37 per cent to 12 per cent on the question of preferred Labor leader. The commonly raised objection that such figures are skewed by mischievous Coalition supporters is dealt with by the fact that Rudd leads by 43 per cent to 31 per cent even among Labor supporters. Speaking of mischief, Malcolm Turnbull and Bob Brown were also thrown into the mix, respectively scoring 11 per cent and 3 per cent. However, it’s hard to say exactly what respondents were making of their inclusion: Turnbull was far behind Rudd among Coalition voters, and Brown was far behind both Rudd and Gillard among Greens voters. Of the Labor also-rans, Stephen Smith recorded 7 per cent, Greg Combet 2 per cent and Bill Shorten 1 per cent.
Besides which:
• The parliamentary library has published a paper by Murray Goot and Ian Watson with the self-explanatory title, “Population, immigration and asylum seekers: patterns in Australian public opinion”. Exhaustively reviewing public opinion measurement dating back to the late 1970s, they find that while opposition to immigration has increased since 2005, it is still lower than it was in the 1980s and the early 1990s. The fall in the intervening period is put down to declining unemployment, while the rise since has been driven by boat arrivals. Opposition to immigration is nonetheless found to be primarily environmentally rather than economically motivated – though racial motivation is, it seems, placed in pollsters’ too-hard baskets. The archetype of the immigration opponent is Australian-or-British born, of low income and education, and lives in public housing – though in defiance of other stereotypes, they are more likely to be female than male, and as likely to live in inner as outer metropolitan areas.
• Fairfax economics writer Peter Martin reviews the literature on that hottest of topics, the impact of media partisanship on voting behaviour. His broad conclusion is that while newspapers have very little impact, “television and radio are different”.
• Antony Green examines data on above-the-line voting patterns for the Legislative Council at the recent-ish New South Wales state election. The system here differs from the Senate in that voters can sequentially number as many parties as they choose above-the-line, after which their vote exhausts. Voters are thus spared the farce of having their preferences allocated in full by their one nominated party. The figures show that despite the different rules, voters continue to follow habits acquired from the Senate, with 82.2 per cent voting for one party above the line: 15.6 per cent numbered multiple parties above the line, with the remaining 2.2 per cent voting below the line. Antony reckons that if this system were adopted for the Senate, the high number of exhausted votes “would make the filling of the final Senate seat in each state a regular lottery rather than the occasional lottery under the current group ticket voting system”. However, I can’t see this myself: looking at the last two elections, each state elected four to five Senators off quotas derived from the primary vote, and after that major party and Greens candidates had easily enough in the way of surpluses to see off any micro-party chancers who might have been in the race for the final one or two seats (I await to hear where I’ve gone wrong here). However, double dissolution elections would be a different matter.
• Ben Raue at New Matilda and Peter Brent at Mumble review the Mike Rann situation. The timing may remain farcically up in the air, but the smart money says that South Australia will sooner or later be looking at simultaneous by-elections for Rann’s seat of Ramsay and his former deputy Kevin Foley’s seat of Port Adelaide. Defeat in both would cut the government’s majority from five seats to one: luckily for them, the respective margins are 18.0 per cent and 12.8 per cent. However, safe seats often prove the most vulnerable to high-profile independents, and Antony points to Max James (who polled 11.0 per cent at the election last year) and Port Adelaide-Enfield mayor Gary Johanson as possible contenders in Port Adelaide. A Liberal strategy of boosting independent challengers by declining to field a candidate is complicated by the fact that the swing they require there is not quite beyond the realms of possibility.
• If having the government’s majority chipped away through by-election defeats doesn’t do it for you, Family First MLC Robert Brokenshire is introducing a bill to the South Australian parliament allowing for early “recall” elections in the event that a petition calling for one is signed by 150,000 people within 30 days of its initiation.
• Malcolm Mackerras reviews some election timing history in Crikey. Also from Mackerras: a month or two ago I raised an eyebrow when he professed himself “quite confident in predicting there will be no by-elections during the current term”, since “Members of Parliament do not die these days”. On July 6 he offered a follow-up in the Canberra Times, which fleshed out the point that deaths of sitting parliamentarians have become a lot less common:
The essential reason is the generosity these days of parliamentary superannuation schemes and the ease with which former politicians get good jobs post-politics. In the past the typical politician expected to fail in the employment market post-politics. Since parliamentary salaries were good there was a great incentive for the politician to stay in his seat for as long as possible. Also medical advances mean that longer lives are now normal. A current Labor member in any of about 30 marginal seats killed in a car crash would, of course, wreck the Gillard Government. Surely Labor could not win a by-election in such a circumstance. However, such an occurrence is very unlikely.
UPDATE (8/7/11): Bernard Keane at Crikey reports Essential Research has the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, now leading 57-43. On the primary vote the Coalition has gained a point to 50 per cent and Labor is down one to 30 per cent. In the event of “another global financial crisis”, 43 per cent would more trust the Coalition to handle it against 27 per cent for Labor. Also:
The survey also revealed remarkable levels of ignorance about the numbers of asylum seekers coming to Australia. 36% of voters believe that the number of asylum seekers arriving by boat has “increased a lot” in the past 12 months, and 26% say it has “increased a little”, with 20% saying numbers have stayed the same. Only 7% of voters believe the number of asylum seekers has fallen. When told that the number of asylum seekers arriving by boat has fallen by more than half this year, the proportion of people “very concerned” about asylum seekers falls from 43% to 33% and those “a little” or “not at all” concerned goes from from 30% to 39%.
UPDATE 2: Full Essential Research report here.
george,
7.5 had 5 minutes of decent stuff.
I’ll respond to 2442 with 2439.
Better not hope commodity prices do not drop too much.
No budget surplus (mining profits is where government is relying on) in 2013 will = Tony Abbott PM!
*must go*
[7.5 had 5 minutes of decent stuff.]
that long? Must be improving…
This little black duck
[The electorate are not happy. The polling data is telling us this
I don’t care. This government will leave a “better” electorate whether it appreciates it or not.]
Hear hear!
Futurama is a blessed relief.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.
[I am extremely uncomfortable with the attitudes towards race held by certain (white) groups in South Africa being brought here. It is like adding too much salt to the stew.]
There are three waves. There were a large number of “Rhodesians” who took the “Chicken Run” coming to Perth as it was the closest destination re direct flights.Perth being comfortably white helped. There were also South Africans who arrived having left SA due to their disgust with Apartheid. All of which were swamped by the flood leaving SA at the prospect of the “Blicks” taking over.
Can anyone tell me why a one-eyed anime looks sexy?
So are you telling me we can get the same revenue by selling less product?
Way to go!
[John Howard on the other hand has made good people hate others just because they are boat people. In my book I cannot fully describe to how I hate this man.]
AdamA – I don’t forgive Howard for his stance on apartheid and for wanting to put rugby and cricket above that awful system. I don’t forgive him for Tampa, etc. I will never forgive his dogwhistles which still resonate loudly where I live.
I do want regional processing centres so the AS do not have to waste life and money on dangerous boats.
[we can get the same revenue by selling less product?]
Only by dollar rising and shortage of product elsewhere. Would be short-term only.
Gee, the WA state Liberal conference sounds like a blast.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/9995668/liberals-call-for-young-offenders-boot-camp/
[dodgy assets to potentially further expose our banking system to hidden risk]
I DISAGREE. There are valuable acquisitions that are able to be made.
In fact I disagree with the whole post!
*gonski*
4C is doing Camora.
Excellent fact-filled rebuttal.
Salt is to useful to be used as an analogy in that case.
TLBD
Damn, I thought it was too good to be true.
BTW – what are we doing wasting money on Heather Ewart being on Christmas Island. I thought the ABC were short of funds.
I understand there’ll be a Newspoll tonight. Can’t bring myself to watch Cormann and Switzer on Q&A — I have to have some standards in the company I keep!
I’ll rely on you guys to tell me anything crucial — but am going to give myself a few hours rest from politics/ASs/generally depressive topics and sign out till later.
Scary betting in the US. Odds for Repug candidate
Romney 7/4
Perry 2 (Perry believes homosexuality should be illegal)
Bachman 5
They are the only ones in single digits.
confessions
[Gee, the WA state Liberal conference sounds like a blast.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/9995668/liberals-call-for-young-offenders-boot-camp/%5D
Faaaaark me. Talk about back to the future.Boot camps were oh so trendy in 1980’s Western Australia as the solution to ALL the ills of society. I am so sad that suggestions that the birching of offenders has dropped of their radar.
[BH
Posted Monday, August 8, 2011 at 8:26 pm | Permalink
BTW – what are we doing wasting money on Heather Ewart being on Christmas Island. I thought the ABC were short of funds.
]
especially as there is a WA based reporter there as well – no doubt with a crew from sydney as well.
[poroti
Posted Monday, August 8, 2011 at 8:27 pm | Permalink
confessions
[Gee, the WA state Liberal conference sounds like a blast.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/newshome/9995668/liberals-call-for-young-offenders-boot-camp/
Faaaaark me. Talk about back to the future.Boot camps were oh so trendy in 1980?s Western Australia as the solution to ALL the ills of society. I am so sad that suggestions that the birching of offenders has dropped of their radar.
]
Liberal Party conference determined by 6PR presenters and Listeners – one H Satttler in particular loves Boot Camps.
China has de hooked from America to a significant degree and has turned inwards to promote economic growth. This is a good thing for Australia.
China will be less affected by any downturn in Europe and or America and therefore there will not be a significant downturn in demand from China for resources.
We should also keep in mind that China cannot afford any significant downturn in economic activity. China needs growth to support the millions of workers who rely on Chinese factories churning out goods and construction projects that employ regional and rural workers. Take these away and social unrest will start to bubble. China will not let this happen. China will continue to grow as will its demand for coal, iron ore etc.
Australia will be ok and I think any talk of world wide recession is at this point a bit over the top.
Financial markets may splutter for a while but that will be more to do with jitters than any on coming recession.
THe European Central Bank is starting to but Italian and Spanish paper and this should stabilise the European markets. THe Australian share market is really playing follow the leader. How could shares in Rio, BHP etc be sold off long term ? Sense will prevail and I think buyers will come back when reality comes to the surface and the search for value starts to come out on top of fear.
Here’s hoping anyway.
Diogenes
Scary betting in the US. Odds for Repug candidate
Romney 7/4
Perry 2 (Perry believes homosexuality should be illegal)
Bachman 5
They are the only ones in single]
Nah.I look forward to people learning the lesson “Be careful of what you wish for”.
Is there a poll tonight?
Just that Labor have come in a touch in the betting markets. $2.75 from $2.80 – not a big move, but odds rarely change without a poll, this far out.
[This little black duck
Posted Monday, August 8, 2011 at 8:16 pm | Permalink
Futurama is a blessed relief.]
Ducky,
The other night Drake confessed to finding Glen funny. I must admit to occasional amusement, in between finding him a bit annoying. But it made me think of something else, especially while Glen was experimenting with identities.
I always pictured him a bit like Fry from Futurama – nearly always wrong, but earning a certain amount of admiration for his dogged loyalty.
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2011/s3288321.htm
[CONCETTA FIERRAVANTI-WELLS: All we’re hearing from the Prime Minister today is we’re going to embark on more talk. This Government you know needs to act and it needs to act now.]
[She says a Coalition government would spend about a billion dollars over four years to immediately address problems with aged care. That would include entering into a four year agreement with the aged care industry where the Productivity Commission’s recommendations would be considered.
CONCETTA FIERRAVANTI-WELLS: Ultimately that would be a matter for discussion with the sector and ultimately whether that is or isn’t a feature of the reform that we would like to enter into.
I’m not sort of saying one thing or the other. The very nature of an agreement is one where you do enter into a partnership with the sector. And we feel that something as important as this needs to have everybody on board.
NAOMI WOODLEY: Isn’t that precisely what the Government’s now doing is that process of consultation?
CONCETTA FIERRAVANTI-WELLS: Well they’ve been consulting for a long time. One would think that they’d finally get on with something.
And that’s what we have been, you know, we’ve set out a framework. The Government’s still talking.]
The lady the ABC crosses to on Christmas Island seems very level headed. Not Heather, duh!
4 corners is interesting
Dow Jones futures in the US down about 250 points (2.2%) … more than validating the falls in Australia today.
GD,
It’s all about perspective, isn’t it?
For perspective, I like Gaudí. He makes Picasso look like an also-ran.
Ribbon on US news states that employers want workers but their cannot get skilled workers.
Just said companies are cutting their outsourcing to India etc……
And yes, the ASX overnight futures another 10 points down – that’s another 0.2% already.
Dee,
Taking on talent and bringing them up is lost in Australia, too. After all, there is zero short-term gain there.
Alan Shore
Outside of you regurgitation of the basics of the Refugee Convention the only thing that makes sense is you statement – “The only hope to defuse this issue is for there to be fewer boats arriving”
Nothing you have preposed will even slow them down let alone stop the boats
In fact I think that there is a good chance that it will encourage more to attempt the trip from Indonesia to Australia in a leaky boat. Knowing that the only chance to get to Australia, AS/refugees would make their way to Indonesia in increasing numbers hoping to pick up one of the spots. Those that miss out (and as you admitted our capacity to take referees/AS is limited) on the lottery would be inclined to attempt the trip by sea especially in view of the closeness of our borders.
What is the disincentive that will stop the leaky boats when up to now not even the possibility of death was enough to stop this trade?
I mention that there are some givens that we have to accept regardless of weather they were right or wrong, good or bad or legal or illegal and I think that mandatory detention is one of them. I would expect that any government that ceases mandatory detention would find itself on the opposition benches at the first available opportunity.
The only exception to that is if this issue was bi-partisan. Somehow I can’t see Abbott or any of his successors being bi-partisan on any issue let alone one that will always garner them support especially now that his “say no to everything” policy has worked so well.
Four Corners, tonight, is a really good production.
I know bad stuff happens: I don’t need the crime porn.
“Given the global financial uncertainty at present it may not be a bad idea for the government to postpone or even abandon its proposed mining tax.”
This is a silly statement considering that the only companies making big profits are the mining Companies. To let this continue is to invite in the “Dutch disease”.
The Refugee Convention counts diddly squat with our High Court. This is about Australian law and constitution.
Blah
BK
”What AS choices are available?
1. Onshore processing and settlement of genuine refugees with no limit to intake
2. Malaysian solution
3. Turning back or sinking boats
4. Closing the door to all refugees (we can’t because of previously signed agreements)
5. Closing our eyes and ears and hoping it will all go away
6. TPV, Nauru policy”
I think you have summed it very neatly.
But which of those options will “stop the boats” and stop bodies being washed up on our northern shore?
Ratsars
That question was the precise reason for me to pose the list.
Apart from Option 3 I believe that the Malaysian solution is the only one that would work well enough.
BK
“That question was the precise reason for me to pose the list.
Apart from Option 3 I believe that the Malaysian solution is the only one that would work well enough.”
I agree.
[
BK
Posted Monday, August 8, 2011 at 8:53 pm | Permalink
Ratsars
That question was the precise reason for me to pose the list.
Apart from Option 3 I believe that the Malaysian solution is the only one that would work well enough.
2492
Ratsars
Posted Monday, August 8, 2011 at 8:54 pm | Permalink
BK
“That question was the precise reason for me to pose the list.
Apart from Option 3 I believe that the Malaysian solution is the only one that would work well enough.”
I agree.
]
Prepare to be pounced upon as uncaring beasts by those who think they are morally above us.
Franks
The same uncaring beasts will be asked to either choose another or to propose another,
bk
true, oh so true
🙁
Sorry Frank, not the beasts. Rather the morally superior.
Before GFC, the pundits were saying China cannot decouple itself from USA. Well, the Comrades had proved the pundits wRONg, it has successfully decoupled itself from the USA.
Now it’s official, China dont trust USA anymore. It is taking its own unilateral and preemptive action (which Dubya loved so much) to protect its own USD assets.
China is embarking on another decoupling of China’s USD assets. It is interesting that Australia is specifically mentioned by China as asset class.
[China side-steping U.S. financial crisis with innovative strategies
BEIJING, Aug. 8 (Xinhuanet) — After watching Congress play politics and care not a whit about upholding the honor of United States, can the world assume that America is not about to become a deadbeat to beat all deadbeat nations in history?
Even if the United States Treasury eventually honors its obligations after undergoing the tortuous exercise between House, Senate and the White House, will the rest of the world continue to have faith and confidence in the value of the dollar?
China, the country that holds more U.S. federal debt than any other foreign country, is taking action to sidestep potential future U.S. default.
China’s Move From Dollars to Hard Assets
Even at the outset of the financial crisis, Beijing asked Washington to keep the value of the dollar from sliding. Members of the Obama administration serially assured China that the United States would uphold the integrity of the dollar, maintaining as deadpan a demeanor as possible, while knowing that printing more money is inevitable.
Of course, no one in Beijing took the U.S. assurance to the bank. Instead, China has been actively investing declining dollars into hard assets, such as oil fields and mineral deposits in Africa, Australia and Latin America.]
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/indepth/2011-08/08/c_131034994.htm
Diogenes
[Scary betting in the US. Odds for Repug candidate]
I stand by my prediction it will be Romney. He is the only “serious” contender who hasn’t dropped out. The GOP establishment love him, as do big business. And he is an economic candidate, not a “God, Gays and Guns” candidate. Just who the GOP are looking for. Plus, it is “his turn.”
He will also be a stalking horse for the Mormon faith, to see if it can be acceptable to the GOP faithful and voters in the South. If they don’t have a problem with it, and Romney loses the general, expect Huntsman to run in 2016.
My prediction:
2012: Obama v Romney – Obama wins
2016: Clinton v Huntsman – Huntsman wins.
Diogs…my candidate Tim Pawlenty just hasnt got a national profile. He’d be a formidable Presidential candidate and much better than a Mormon, Evangelical Christian or Tea Party candidates that the rest are.
Also I think anybody would choose 2 years of something than 10 years of something.
[Also I think anybody would choose 2 years of something than 10 years of something.]
chicken