GhostWhoVotes tweets that the first post-carbon tax announcement poll from Nielsen, presumably conducted between Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1400, has the Coalition’s lead out from 59-41 to 61-39. Further comment superfluous, but primary votes and leadership figures, and presumably also some attitudinal stuff, to follow.
UPDATE: After falling a point short of overtaking Julia Gillard in last month’s poll, Tony Abbott has rocketed to an 11-point lead as preferred prime minister, up five points to 51 per cent with Gillard down six to 40 per cent.
UPDATE 2: Labor primary vote down a point to 26 per cent …
UPDATE 3: Michelle Grattan in the Sydney Morning Herald:
In results that will send waves of fear through the government, approval for Ms Gillard’s performance has tumbled another 3 points to 34 per cent, while her disapproval rating has jumped 3 to 62 per cent. The carbon plan has been given an unequivocal thumbs down, with 56 per cent of respondents opposed to a carbon price, 52 per cent rejecting the government’s carbon price and compensation package, and 53 per cent believing it will leave them worse off. More than half (56 per cent) say Ms Gillard has no mandate for her plan, and the same proportion want an early poll before the plan is introduced. Nearly half (47 per cent) think Bob Brown and the Greens are mainly responsible for the government’s package. More than half (52 per cent) say an Abbott government should repeal the package while 43 per cent believe it should be left in place under a new government. Ms Gillard yesterday denied she had been ringing around to gauge backbench support for her failing leadership.
The Coalition’s primary vote is up 2 points to 51 per cent, while the Greens’ is down 1 point to 11 per cent. Approval of Mr Abbott has risen a point to 47 per cent. His disapproval is down 2 points to 48 per cent … Ms Gillard’s approval rating is her worst so far and the lowest for a PM since Paul Keating’s 34 per cent in March 1995.
UPDATE (18/7/2011): Essential Research is kinder for the government, showing a slight improvement from last week’s worst-ever result for them: the Coalition’s lead is down from 57-43 to 56-44, with the Coalition down a point to 49 per cent, Labor up one to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent. Essential being a two-week rolling average, this was half conducted immediately before and half immediately after the carbon tax announcement, with the latter evidently having provided the better figures. I have noted in the past that, for whatever reason, Essential seems to get more favourable results for the carbon tax than phone pollsters: as well as being consistent with the voting intention findings (albeit not to the extent of statistical significance), the Essential survey also finds direct support for the carbon tax has increased since the announcement, with approval up four points to 39 per cent and disapproval down four to 49 per cent.
This raises at least the possibility that the phone polling methodology behind the recent Morgan and Nielsen results, as well as next week’s Newspoll, is skewed somewhat against the carbon tax – unless of course the internet-based Essential (or perhaps some other aspect of Essential’s methodology) is skewed in its favour. It should also be noted that Essential’s recovery only returns support to the level it was at in the June 14 survey, before a dive on July 11. For all that, respondents are just as pessimistic about their own prospects under the tax as were Morgan’s: 10 per cent say they will be better off against 69 per cent worse off, and 46 per cent believe it will be bad for Australia against 34 per cent good. Further questions inquire about respondent’s self-perceived level of knowledge about the tax, and their reactions about a range of responses to it.
Gus 😆
Glen:
[ummm crying 3 days after announcing the Tax.]
Citation needed. In fact you’ll need a device that can transport you to an alternate universe where this happened. So how about not spouting BS. Leave that to the pros like Abbott.
[ALP on 26 Primary Vote so what they are 14% higher than the Greens LOLOLOLOL]
Glen,
Thanks for making me look stupid for suggesting your comments have some value. Only two days ago you agreed the tone of the debate needed to improve.
God only knows what the more regular PBers must think of me.
Evan, Julia is to be shy to be commander in chief.
She’s way prettier than the red rat.
Nice to see Frank is still proffering the excuse that Abbott is the same as Latham when the evidence shows that such a comparison unequivocally wrong.
1. Abbott brought down a first term PM
2. Abbott not only very nearly won an election, but forced Labor into minority.
3. Abbott now enjoys a substantial lead in 2PP and is also preferred PM by an 11 point margin.
To my recollection, Latham achieved none of the above.
[Labor should never have knifed him in his first term.
He was a monty to win in 2010.]
Rudd had voter support but didn’t have Caucus support. What kind of leader is considered a failure by his own team?
The first order of business for Labor now is to fix the primary vote and to at least stop the rot, and stop the previous rot becomning rusted ‘off’.
They need to change the leader to pull this plane out of its dive to the earth, which isn’t too far away now.
Although it does raise the question: at what point with opinion polls in states and federally does the ALP say to itself: “we are doing something terribly wrong in how we operate” and not just have some lukewarm review or implement some pissy reforms at the next conference that are either ignored by Caucus or dumped as soon as they take back government?
[World War III will commence and Julia can be Commander-In-Chief?]
But she’s a shy girl and may cry?
Can’t look good as a leader to face our enemies on the beaches and the landing grounds no sir.
Oh cmon Gus no fair.
Us centre-righties can smell blood in the water and havent had such a good run in the polls since I can’t remember…especially not over 60% 2pp 😆
fess,
Leave poor little beasties to themselves. Zero value there.
My advice….
Ask Simon Crean or Stephen Smith if they’d like a job for 2 years?
[So I guess they’ll hang on to Julia for grim death until the next election, because the factional hard heads are too proud to admit they botched it in June 2010.]
No, the ALP will stick with Julia Gillard because they have a mapped out strategy that has some way to go. Seriously, how on earth is changing leaders again going to help their polling position?? It would just validate a lot of the FUB that is being pumped out by the Coalition.
The polling for the ALP is crap at the moment no doubt, but so far they seem pretty much on track with their legislative program and it was always delivering on this upon which their hopes for re-election hang. This isn’t exactly news people. It was laid out pretty clearly at the beginning of this year. Get legislation on Carbon Price and MRRT through in 2012, get the NBN bedded in, and go to an election in 2013 after people have had a chance to see it can be done and the sky is still in the right place.
2 years, long time and all that. People are entitled to their opinions but I think some of the pontificating by the MSM and others about how if people have stopped listening now its all too late is pretty shallow as far as analysis goes. Lots of wishful thinking on the part of the Tories.
hola genetic precipice
1nup
2 nup- he lost the unloseable election sunshine 🙂
3 nup- abboot still has the advantage of msm boosters- but not for long
p FARGING SSSSSSSSSSSSSS
litlle johhny said today on inciters
“WHEN I LEFT POLITICS”
BZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZT
YOU WERE KICKED OUT ON YOUR SORRY BEATEN ARSK
Gusface responded to an injunction that commenters would get banned if they did a certain thing by doing precisely that thing, then got banned for about two hours. I’d keep any expressions of outrage very carefully measured if I were him.
Gus,
*Light sabre*
Just say the word and I’ll thin them out
Simon Crean was one of the least popular Labor leaders ever. It would be stupid to give him the top job…hmmm… expect it to happen!
[Generic Person
Posted Sunday, July 17, 2011 at 11:30 pm | Permalink
Nice to see Frank is still proffering the excuse that Abbott is the same as Latham when the evidence shows that such a comparison unequivocally wrong.
1. Abbott brought down a first term PM
]
No, Rudd did not contest a leadership Bsllot.
Two words Peter Debnam 2007 🙂
TP now is not the time. The government remember is hanging on with the support of three independents and a green. I think some of them will be worried about a government imploding. I would consider it late next year, time for Rudd to rip into Abbott before an election in August 2013.
They must change leaders i can see the ads now focusing on her famous words about no carbon tax.
A major party that leaves the primary vote at 26% has no self respect.
It is a party that is choosing to become a minor party.
Gillard is dead, and she has probably taken out Combet with her
At, say, 2 polls a week there are around 250 polls to go before the real one.
I understand that Pyrrhus was probably surrounded by people like GP, ML, Glen, etc, etc.
Good night all.
[Get legislation on Carbon Price and MRRT through in 2012,]
How are more taxes going to endear Gillard to the public when she can’t sell a cash hand out 😆 ???
Imacca
Sooner or later push must come to shove.
Gillard is the problem not necessarily Labor.
[Us centre-righties can smell blood in the water and havent had such a good run in the polls since I can’t remember…especially not over 60% 2pp]
glen
the only blood in the water will be abbotts when the turnbull mako rips into tone the tuna
then we will see who has the fibre
😉
No 99
Rudd was at least had some credibility in the eye of the public. I may, as a Liberal voter, disliked him, but he was a popular PM, had an air of authority about him and was a very good campaigner. Gillard may appease the internal ALP apparatchiks, but the public have stopped listening to her.
[Part of the New Paradigm is that we’re no longer governed by frequent opinion polling results but a longer game of achievement.]
You’d hope so GD, but the Coalition simply cant get their heads around the idea as its all happening while they are on the sidelines.
Gusface,
What stuff did you use to get back on? Tech answer OK.
Not a labour voter but … I think labour should shut down the circus – only communicate what they want to say via a website and parliament. No interviews, doorstops … nothing.
There simply is no reasonable basis for them being on the nose like this. My guess is that it is because they are pushing against nothing – an illusion – a deception – that has created what appears to be a perception, but is just a fantasy, based on nothing more than fairy floss.
Even if you instinctively don’t like PM Gillard, for no particular reason at all, there is very little of substance you could damn her with. Lying? give me a break; you have to be a pretty precious partisan to hold fast to such a specious charge.
Deposing Rudd? Highly unlikely. If this was really the issue some pretend it is, it would have split the ALP straight down the middle. This is not even remotely the case.
With Abbott, There is no ‘there’ there. I have said this before. Simply ignore him, cut the medias oxygen, and you will transform the posture of the entire discourse. The media simply cannot survive on a diet of Abbots rubbish.
When you are good and ready, you can begin to feed them protein in the form of verifiable facts; but only when you are good and ready. If they want ti publish crap, don’t mix your message with the crap, communicate directly in the form of multimedia releases – videos – ads – website papers – dry – factual. You can’t keep doing the same thing expecting a different result.
bilbo
and i would look at your response to my simple defence of frank
anyways your blog
your bans
🙁
ah the sky is blue.the sun shines on the righteous and the wicked (that’s all of us). julia is l-u-c-k-y. she has survived until now, that was her main role. saint bob has yet to confess for letting the hun into the room of australia democracy. but providence is great – the red sea will yet part (means watch london)
ducky
the tin lids laptops backup USB
😉
[173
gusface
Posted Sunday, July 17, 2011 at 11:36 pm | Permalink
Us centre-righties can smell blood in the water and havent had such a good run in the polls since I can’t remember…especially not over 60% 2pp
glen
the only blood in the water will be abbotts when the turnbull mako rips into tone the tuna
then we will see who has the fibre
]
And which will make the Rudd removal look like Brain surgery 🙂
[The first order of business for Labor now is to fix the primary vote and to at least stop the rot, and stop the previous rot becomning rusted ‘off’.
They need to change the leader to pull this plane out of its dive to the earth, which isn’t too far away now.]
the people changing the current leader will be the same ones who changed the previous leader. how will the same people repeating the course of action that lead to this outcome lead to a different outcome in future?
Password?
For once GP i agree with you, authority is the word – Julia has never looked strong or good at campaigning.
I guess Crean’s name is being put forward again, because the Victorian right controls the numbers in the caucus, and they’re desperately looking for an alternative leader…….but Simon Crean?
Combet or Rudd again are their best options!
[Gillard may appease the internal ALP apparatchiks, but the public have stopped listening to her.]
Completely dead in the water now.
I cant see her changing perceptions about her despite how many times she blubs at NPC addresses…the public will never forgive her for lying to them so blatantly.
NSW Labor eat your heart out isnt Barry O over 70%2pp now?
[Leave poor little beasties to themselves. Zero value there.]
???
confessions@157
That isn’t correct, yet again. The factional bosses made the call, caucus knew three-quarters of five-eighths of very little about it until they were told by their respective bosses.
It wasn’t so much a failure by Rudd, even though I thought he was a dud – it was an opportunity by the new cabal of right-wing bosses to take over completely with Gillard as their figurehead. They were waiting (source – or protected source – Mark Arbib via diplomatic cable form US embassy) and they took the opportunity that arose with the hurried mining tax carry-on that was the policy result of the CPRS dumping that they themselves imposed on Rudd.
It’s not the carbon tax according to Oakeahotte, “Australians are still struggling to come to terms with the fact that they have a female leader — that’s something we all have to reflect on.”
lol 😀
GP,
Any indication as to how many terrorist sympathisers are onsite tonight?
You being the expert on such things.
[3. Abbott now enjoys a substantial lead in 2PP and is also preferred PM by an 11 point margin.]
4. Abbott is the first socialist Liberal leader who has socialist tax and spend policies for both:
a. Climate Change mitigation
b. Paid maternity leave
Hence anyone interested in sound economic management can’t vote Liberal while Tony Abbott is the leader.
JohD
The best post tonite (except my own hyperbole, ahem)
“There simply is no reasonable basis for them being on the nose like this. My guess is that it is because they are pushing against nothing – an illusion – a deception – that has created what appears to be a perception, but is just a fantasy, based on nothing more than fairy floss …” and the rest
Pure wisdom. the ads will probably make matters worse in the short term. carbon is a deception, it is not what is really being contended at level of power. i worry about julia’s and advisors strategic sense – agree, they should change topic …
confessions,
There are commenters who come here when the polls look poor for Labor. They are are the poor wee beasties. They do not come to engage in discourse, only to mock.
Out of a pretty suboptimal cabinet, I’d have to choose Stephen Smith as preferred Labor leader. He has never looked incompetent, out of his depth or out of touch. He is a very safe pair of hands IMHO.
ducky
nup
there was an ahem glitch at the hosts end
maybe thrid party?
anyways diff laptop
straight in
Glen: NSW Labor are virtually non-existant, and you barely see or hear from Robertson in the media.
Luke Foley seems to be the only Shadow Minister who at least gets up and has a go……the rest are still licking their wounds.
O’Farrell still enjoying a honeymoon with the voters and the media.
No 191
Showy, we’ve been doing this to-and-fro for years, but your debating skills are about as awful as Frank’s now.
We need Adam Carr/Psephos back on board.
gusface,
Whatever! Good to have a prime mover back.
Would Turnbull, if he got the job as Lib leader, be more popular in the long run?
I know he’s often nominated as preferred Lib leader, but he had some low ratings in his time, and then the libs would lose their main attack, total opposition to carbon package, NBN etc. Interested in some considered thoughts.
so mein fibs!
how many are willing to call 100 seats based on the polls
?