Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition with a 58-42 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 27 per cent for Labor (down -3), 49 per cent for the Coalition (up +3) and 12 per cent for the Greens (up +1). More to follow, though probably not until tomorrow.

UPDATE (13/7/11): Very bad news for the government from a Galaxy survey of 500 respondents conducted on Monday night, which finds essentially no change in opinion on the carbon tax: only 29 per cent say that, “based on what you have seen or heard about the carbon tax”, they are supportive; fully 60 per cent are opposed. Galaxy has again pointlessly asked respondents if they think Gillard has a mandate for the tax or should instead call an election, a false dichotomy I railed against when they asked it six weeks ago, but since they have also asked the more sensible question it’s not such a problem. Terrifyingly for the government, only 10 per cent believe they will be better off under the carbon tax against 68 per cent worse off, despite what the Treasury modelling has to say on the subject.

UPDATE 2 (14/7/11): Essential Research has also published results for a question on the exclusion of fuel from the carbon tax, conducted for the Ten Network. I presume this formed part of last week’s survey, and was thus conducted before Sunday’s announcement. It has 30 per cent declaring themselves more likely to support the tax on the basis of the exclusion of fuel, 11 per cent less likely and 52 per cent saying it will make no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,896 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 158
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  2. I will be out helping my local member in Moreton to keep his seat in Qld. Things are tough, but you can’t give up.

  4. PM was excellent tonight. If she continues like this, and still can’t convince the people, then God save the people.

  7. One of the tweeters to Q&A said it best: Julia isn’t Howard or Rudd – even though I thought she did quite well on the program, she just doesn’t have a connection with the Australian voting public, and it’s all to do with how she came to power.
    And before Frank or someone else accuses me of being a Liberal troll, polls like this don’t bring me one ounce of joy whatsoever.

  8. I’m just a poor boy, GG.

    Sadly, my previous tongue in cheek comment is the level the Monkton’s of this world really pitch their arguments at. You know the type – it’s colder today than yesterday, so global warming’s a crock. Sigh…..

  11. [Boerwar
    Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 11:16 pm | Permalink
    rosemour
    Why so nasty?]

    Don’t know really.
    Since Frank called me names I’ve just lost it.
    Why don’t you ask him the same question?

  13. [Because I’m going to have to live through another freakin’ coalition government in what’s left of my life time and noone here can do anything about it except pat themselves on the back every time a crap poll comes out.]

    I know exactly how you feel about living through another coalition govt. Rosemour, but what I will be doing is talking my head off to everyone who wants to spout rubbish to me about this Government.

    I will give them facts – ask them to consider what they know to be facts as against the negativity and fear being spread.

    It will only be by listening and talking to those around us that we can make a difference and claw this back so that we do not have to put up with Abbott. I’ll do it every day, if necessary, for the next 2.something years.

  15. [Don’t know really.
    Since Frank called me names I’ve just lost it.
    Why don’t you ask him the same question?]

    do you need a hug? I’m very cuddly

  18. evan14

    I think that tweet was referring to the fact she is a woman. The audience was the most hostile I can remember. The PMN got a great applause at the end, which she deserved.

  20. blackdog,

    At this stage, all Labor has to do is get people to look at the package and how it affects them.

    When that poves it is harmless, the next phase is to show it really is doing something about carbon pollution.

    Third phase is to use Abbott’s rhetoric to show he’ll take away all the benefits and really tax them.

  21. G

    [i wont comment further]

    We went on a guided tour and the tour guide said that that gallery was very ‘political’ as indeed it was. In one sense that particular gallery is, for me, the most ‘real’ gallery in the whole building. I can see why it might irritate, outrage, and annoy some.

  24. Boerwar

    “So, will Mr Abbott support the steel and coal packages? Or is he all badmouth and Do-nothing?”

    Abbott will not support it. To do so will give some form of approval to Gillards Tax and there is nothing to gain supporting it. If he supports it Bob Brown gets away again, everything good = Bob Brown, everything Bad = Gillard and Libs.

    It about time the Big mouth from Tas gets one in the political mouth, I would be tickled pink if Labor handed one out.

  25. [Another name caller @ 110
    Frank has a proxy name caller now.
    He must be taking a nap.]

    awww, did I hurt you wittle feewings

  26. Blackdog: undoubtably the audience was stacked with Young Liberals, they are very easy to pick out.
    I give Julia credit for going on a show like Q&A – a pity that Abbott will only stick to 2GB and the Today Show.

  28. [Since Frank called me names I’ve just lost it.
    Why don’t you ask him the same question?]
    Best to have a thick hide here, rosemour, and let the personal stuff go through to the keeper (Bilbo). “Losing it” doesn’t achieve much other than boring troll matches (personally, I skip those posts).

    And what BH said (@113) ….

  29. [Boerwar
    Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 11:19 pm | Permalink
    rosemour

    Why not just engage with the rest of us? I am always game for a reasonable conversation.]

    I thought I was.
    But Frank didn’t like what I was saying so called me names.
    Frank is a little bit intolerant of others’ ideas and concerns I think.

    Poor Frank. Frank wants everyone to think like him.
    Frankthink.

  30. [News Corp shareholders seek to block addition of Elizabeth Murdoch to board, end Rupert Murdoch use of company assets for personal/family agendas – law firm.]

  31. [george

    i am always up for a hug]

    Anytime Gus – my hugs are currently carbon price free, so I’m just handin’-em out!

  33. Evan – Kev did really well with selling stuff like the HIP and the CPRS! and so well that the voters were waiting with baseball bats in Qld.

    I regard Phil Coorey as a pretty upfront journo and if he said JG saved a few votes in Qld because Kev was losing them then I believe Coorey.

    Now let’s drop it and concentrate on you ringing those 2GB blokes you listen to and putting them straight on the good job you think Labor did under Kev and the good job you think Julia is doing by bringing the MPCC to an agreed position.

  34. Boerwar, bloody disappointing food, but nice company. The thing that got us was we had to walk through the gaming area at Crown Casino to get to the restaurant. It is just huge, and on a Monday night was very busy, very disorientating and totally disheartening seeing all these folk just giving their money away to people who already have too much.
    BTW, next time you’re coming to Melbourne, get William to give you my work email, and perhaps we can catch up.

  35. [127

    Peter of Marino

    Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 11:23 pm | Permalink

    Rosemour, the best thing you could do for the ALP would be to join the Liberal Party.
    ]

    Careful,

    You’ll now get him to do his PR run for his CD’s dcedicated to Gough and Keating and his fawing while dining.

  37. [Poor Frank. Frank wants everyone to think like him.
    Frankthink.]

    I like Frankthink… it goes so well with sausages

  39. Rosemour

    [Another name caller @ 110]

    I think that what George is doing is probably the same as what I and several others are doing – stop a personal flame war starting which will demean this blog and cause Mr Bowe some unnecessary strife.

    I can say that I hate it went people get into vicious ad hominem attacks. It reminds me of Mr Abbott. Anyway, I have tried to intervene — which I normally make a rule not to do.

    I hope that you can forgive and forget and can move on and get stuck into the policy.

  40. Rosemour: Why do you think Frank’s bully boy behaviour is so condoned here by his followers?
    It doesn’t matter how many times Frank is banned by William, he just comes back here and repeats the pattern, and he’s cheered on by 10 or so others.

  41. [george
    Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 11:22 pm | Permalink
    Another name caller @ 110
    Frank has a proxy name caller now.
    He must be taking a nap.

    awww, did I hurt you wittle feewings]

    Is that a lisp George?
    Perhaps you and Frank could get a room?

  43. If the polls do not improve by early next year which I doubt they will Gillard is finished. When the Labor Party tell us taht this policy is about doing something about making the planet a safer place to live? It has failed to sell this policy and at present could not sell icecreams on 4O degree day.

    After watching Leigh Sales on the 7.30 report ask stupid questions to Cousins and the Ziggy and to not disclose that Ziggy believes in Nuclear Power i stay away from the Abc political current affairs, all of them except Tony Jones and Kerry have any brains. Time Sales went.

  45. HSO
    I suspect that you will have to ask Mr Bowe to give me your email address. I would be delighted to catch up. We have a daughter and other very extended family down that way and so get down about 4 times a year.

  46. [Is that a lisp George?
    Perhaps you and Frank could get a room?]

    ooooo, that was a good ones! Keep-em comin’, I just luv helping out our special friends

  49. Evan14

    [Would folks here be as dismissive of a Newspoll showing Labor leading by 16 points?]

    I would be after some of the stuff whoever put that up was getting. Gotta be good.

  50. Why doesn;t Abbott tell the coal workers what his Industrial Relations policy is? With it they will have a job but not much else.

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