GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition with a 58-42 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 27 per cent for Labor (down -3), 49 per cent for the Coalition (up +3) and 12 per cent for the Greens (up +1). More to follow, though probably not until tomorrow.
UPDATE (13/7/11): Very bad news for the government from a Galaxy survey of 500 respondents conducted on Monday night, which finds essentially no change in opinion on the carbon tax: only 29 per cent say that, “based on what you have seen or heard about the carbon tax”, they are supportive; fully 60 per cent are opposed. Galaxy has again pointlessly asked respondents if they think Gillard has a mandate for the tax or should instead call an election, a false dichotomy I railed against when they asked it six weeks ago, but since they have also asked the more sensible question it’s not such a problem. Terrifyingly for the government, only 10 per cent believe they will be better off under the carbon tax against 68 per cent worse off, despite what the Treasury modelling has to say on the subject.
UPDATE 2 (14/7/11): Essential Research has also published results for a question on the exclusion of fuel from the carbon tax, conducted for the Ten Network. I presume this formed part of last week’s survey, and was thus conducted before Sunday’s announcement. It has 30 per cent declaring themselves more likely to support the tax on the basis of the exclusion of fuel, 11 per cent less likely and 52 per cent saying it will make no difference.
In 2009 at the peak of Rudd’s popularity and the peak of concern about CC this package has enough in it to be sellable.
In this economic climate, after deferring action and clearly stating you wouldn’t do this, the usurping leader aint got a hope of selling this. The polls exactly mirror what my friends and assciates are telling me (they are sick of hearing about the CT actually, rather than interested in hearing more about the details).
Reverting to blaming the media is a classic symptom of the malaise.
[In this economic climate, after deferring action and clearly stating you wouldn’t do this, the usurping leader aint got a hope of selling this. The polls exactly mirror what my friends and assciates are telling me (they are sick of hearing about the CT actually, rather than interested in hearing more about the details).]
Guess who told Rudd not to do it Mod-Lib???
Ms Gillard 🙂
[Reverting to blaming the media is a classic symptom of the malaise.]
Who is doing this?
LOLOLOOOLOO former Liberal advisor a Mr Croxford on Capital Hill is asked if we should beleive Abbott’s promise of repealling the ETS, he tells us to “take this man at his word”
What a hackstain.
[ShowsOn @ 7625:
If this were not the case, surely a governor general could potentially have the powers of a despot.
Well I guess the High Court case would be to determine if the Governor Governor general used actual powers in the constitution accepted reserve powers, or if they just made something up.]
I take your posts seriously but I’m not quite sure what you’re conveying here.
Gillard, Swan, Brown and I don’t have time to list the bloggers here!!!
[“Labor is stuffed”]
Nah, more likely Tone’s frustration is going to increase. The polls say he would win an election if it were yesterday, today or tomorrow. But the election is not going to be held for another two plus years.
Power is just out of his reach. In Tone’s mid Australia is lying back in all its naked glory saying take me Tone take me, I want you. But Tone has to wait two years, can Tone wait that long, he showed little restraint before and cannot understand why he cannot have what he wants now when he perceives Australian wants him now.
Mod-Lib/Glen:
Labor/Gillard:
1. negotiated with indipendents & greens to form minority government
2. government stable, functional and has passed over 160 (more?) bills
3. Liberals/Nationals now irrelevant in Senate
4. Introducing two of the largest policies in more than a decade with support from scientists, economists and treasury
5. Not doing well in the polls – next election 2 years away
LNP/Abbott:
1. Could not negotiate to form government, could not deliver after several negotiations
2. Has insisted government not functional, and screamed for a new election at every opportunity – has not been able to deliver
3. Could not stop any legislation before july 1st, and certainly won’t be able to after
4. Could not stop the NBN or a Price on Carbon – could not deliver what he promised to Liberal supporters, particularly business supporters who don’t want either. Libs “action plan” not supported by scientists, economists or modelling
5. Doing well in the polls – next election 2 years away.
Yep, Labor is stuffed alright! 😆
[The polls exactly mirror what my friends and assciates are telling me (they are sick of hearing about the CT actually, rather than interested in hearing more about the details).]
Excellent. This is a very good thing for Labor because all they have to do is pass it, get it operating, and then let Abbott bore the electorate to death with his absurd promises to repeal it.
Oh, and I’m sure your “associates” (Guido and Cornellius?) won’t be handing back the tax cuts that the Labor Government gives them.
indipendents=independents 😛
[Gillard, Swan, Brown and I don’t have time to list the bloggers here!!!]
Mod-Lib
The PB Labortariat 🙂
Saves time 🙂
[Nah, more likely Tone’s frustration is going to increase. The polls say he would win an election if it were yesterday, today or tomorrow. But the election is not going to be held for another two plus years.]
70/302PP?
When will the ALP pull the plug on Julia?
What were Rudd’s figures what 53/47 AHEAD and they knifed him?? Seems a bit rash given the polls Labor are getting now…
Fellow swamp rats,
As a tenth anniversary celebration, Cassidy will be talking to Tampa Boy on Sunday.
[Oh, and I’m sure your “associates” (Guido and Cornellius?) won’t be handing back the tax cuts that the Labor Government gives them.]
No they will take the tax cuts, and still give their votes to the Liberal party.
Long Live Democracy!!! 😉
[I take your posts seriously but I’m not quite sure what you’re conveying here.]
The G.G.’s reserve powers are reserve powers because they aren’t explicitly defined in the constitution, but nor are they prohibited by it.
That’s the only point I was making.
I admit I wasn’t at my sublime best when I made that post.
[Gillard, Swan, Brown and I don’t have time to list the bloggers here!!!]
I don’t care about bloggers, can you show me where Gillard, Swan, Brown reverted to blaming the media?
[No they will take the tax cuts, and still give their votes to the Liberal party.]
So they would vote for a party that could only balance the budget, and repeal the ETS by taking back the tax cuts.
Your associates are moronic idiots.
[Guess who told Rudd not to do it Mod-Lib???]
Glen and when I learned this morning that Laurie Oakes is coming out of retirement to interview the PM it crossed my mind that he will again ask those questions he did at the Press Club. Seemed a bit odd to me but maybe I am just too suspicious.
[No they will take the tax cuts, and still give their votes to the Liberal party.
Long Live Democracy!!!]
Tax Cuts and Baseball Bats! 😆
Gillard – “dont write crap”
Brown – “somebody told me to be careful on the phone” who is listening? “i don’t know” LOLOLOOLO
[What were Rudd’s figures what 53/47 AHEAD and they knifed him?? Seems a bit rash given the polls Labor are getting now… ]
Rudd’s losing the PM-ship was more than a polls thing.
[Glen and when I learned this morning that Laurie Oakes is coming out of retirement to interview the PM it crossed my mind that he will again ask those questions he did at the Press Club. Seemed a bit odd to me but maybe I am just too suspicious.]
Wasnt Oakes the one that said she along with Swanny begged Rudd to drop the ETS 🙂 😆 ???
[Excellent. This is a very good thing for Labor because all they have to do is pass it, get it operating, and then let Abbott bore the electorate to death with his absurd promises to repeal it.]
Abbott’s hysterics are already starting to look shrill and OTT. After a year of this I imagine voters will be very cranky with him.
Gillard “Stop writing crap”
Swan “The Daily Telegraph in Sydney is constantly opposing a price on carbon. It doesn’t care how it does it,”
Brown has said numerous times that the Australian has an agenda against the Greens (which is actually true)
When selling a case, blaming the media aint going to cut it- thats all I am saying.
[7332
BH
Posted Friday, July 15, 2011 at 3:17 pm | Permalink
Speaking of 2gb. Have they provided reasoning for not attending rally pn 16th August?
Something to do with the Manager pulling the plug after Radio National (Carabine) questioned him about 2GB being too close to the CATA looney mob.
]
Expect #ohmike to spin this as pressure from the Leftist ABC.
There’s another Morgan poll on the carbon tax but I can’t link to it yet.
Support 37% (0), Oppose 58% (+5)
When we were at ANSTO today, there was one member of our tour who kept on about how all this was being paid for with taxpayers’ money, and was therefore automatically a waste.
Apparently, we should build more schools and hospitals before we subsidize science.
This was just after she was alerted to the fact that scientists are coming from all over the world to work there, and that ground-breaking research was being done as well as existing applied nuclear science that is already saving lives, every day, in hospitals around the country.
She retorted that all scientists were bludgers, sucking off the public tit. When she asked what “those two guys” were doing (two young blokes down in the pit where we weren’t allowed to go) and was told they were PhD candidates, she said (in the worst strine accent you could imagine) “Uni students? We’re paying for Uni students?”.
I nearly picked her up and threw her into the glowing blue swimming pool.
Fun Fact: the ANSTO reactor core is 300mm cubed, the dimensions of a medium sized cardboard box. That’s it. Compared to the Chernobyl core which was 8 x 10 x 7 metres, it’s a very tiny device, but it’s doing great things for the world.
[Wasnt Oakes the one that said she along with Swanny begged Rudd to drop the ETS 🙂 😆 ???]
Wasn’t Tony Abbott the one that said climate change is “crap”?
Wasn’t Tony Abbott the one that supported an Emissions Trading Scheme?
Wasn’t Tony Abbott the one that support a carbon tax?
Isn’t Tony Abbott the one that supports socialist tax and spend nonsense that is a complete anathema to the Liberal’s (supposed) history of sound economic management yet Mod-Lib’s associates are still going to vote for the Liberals because they are moronic idiots?
This little black duck
.
[Fellow swamp rats,
As a tenth anniversary celebration, Cassidy will be talking to Tampa Boy on Sunday.]
.
One of the Kiwi ones I hope.His story will bring into very harsh relief the difference between NZ and JWH’s regime.
[They were the kids Australia didn’t want, so New Zealand gave them a home, writes Michael Gordon]
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/03/26/1079939856030.html
http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/03/26/1079939851279.html
[UNHCR warmly welcomes New Zealand citizenship for ‘Tampa Boys’]
http://www.unhcr.org/4256678014.html
[Ring your local Council and see what they say about disposal of blown-bulbs.]
Some companies like Ikea have disposal bins in their stores.
And another lib leader has his hockey moment.
[The ACT Opposition says Canberrans will be paying an unfair share of the Federal Government’s flood levy. Opposition Leader Zed Seselja says government and Australian Bureau of Statistic figures show the levy will collect between $20 million and $38 million from ACT residents.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-07-15/20110715-act-flood-levy/2795984
What is it Zed, $20 million or $38 million, there is not much difference between the two figures is there. Is $20 million unfair or $38 million unfair.
[smithe @ 7630:
That’s basically what they’re there to do, old boy: Interpret the Constitution.]
It’s slightly more complex than that: the High Court’s not proactive.
It may not be immediately obvious, but I’m aware of its functions.
Remember: those reds destroy neurons.
[Gillard “Stop writing crap”
Swan “The Daily Telegraph in Sydney is constantly opposing a price on carbon. It doesn’t care how it does it,”
Brown has said numerous times that the Australian has an agenda against the Greens (which is actually true)
When selling a case, blaming the media aint going to cut it- thats all I am saying.]
Mod Lib confuses the chicken with the egg.
You can’t deny the hysterical, misleading coverage in our MSM. Day after day, station after station. The two concepts: government popularity and media (lack of reasonable) coverage of it are inseparable.
Thanks for the link whoever provided the DAP analysis:
This is for you!
[SpaceKidette Space Kidette
Don’t let a media baron give you your opinion. Get the truth about the Direct Action Plan here: http://bit.ly/n0GWAr #cpfacts #auspol #cp
]
So the actual Morgan figures are:
[Face to Face
ALP 45.5 (+2), L/NP 54.5 (-2)
Phone
ALP 40 (-3.5), L/NP 60 (+3.5)]
The APL had improved it’s position on the FTF by 2% TPP and blown-out by 3.5% on the Phone Poll.
WTF?
Is support for one T Abbott the love that dare not speak its name in polite company or something?
I realise there will be always variation between polls and polling methods, but one poll going one way and the other going in a completely different direction? from the same pollster?
Doesn’t make sense.
[Gillard “Stop writing crap”
Swan “The Daily Telegraph in Sydney is constantly opposing a price on carbon. It doesn’t care how it does it,”
Brown has said numerous times that the Australian has an agenda against the Greens (which is actually true)]
Thank you for confirming you were making stuff up. Taking quotes out of context seems to be the modern liberal party modus operandi.
Gillard was not blaming the press, she was asking them to stop writing crap – surely you agree that lots of crap has been written.
Swan said newspapers could have any editorial opinion they like, but to be honest.
Bob Brown has not reverted to anything, if a newspaper says it is going to destroy your party surely he has a right to fight back?
[When will the ALP pull the plug on Julia?]
She wins in 2013 she goes on her terms, probably hand over some time in 2018.
BB
[She retorted that all scientists were bludgers, sucking off the public tit. When she asked what “those two guys” were doing (two young blokes down in the pit where we weren’t allowed to go) and was told they were PhD candidates, she said (in the worst strine accent you could imagine) “Uni students? We’re paying for Uni students?”.
I nearly picked her up and threw her into the glowing blue swimming pool.]
And there is the core of at least part of Labor’s indeed a problem with Government as a whole today. As I mentioned yesterday we were brought up to believe that “taxes are the price you pay to live in a civilised society”. Now people have the view that I will tell you how I want you to spend the taxes I give you.
Something has fundamentally changed in our society.
Aaargh..ALP and TFF…..
fingers….
I should quit while I’m ahead…TPP is right.
[Guess who told Rudd not to do it Mod-Lib???
Ms Gillard 🙂 ]
That rumour is one that has never been confirmed and won’t be.
Plus: if you’re bashing your head against a brick wall and said brick wall is only injuring you — do you keep bashing your head or do you stop and rethink your strategy?
[The APL had improved it’s position on the FTF by 2% TPP and blown-out by 3.5% on the Phone Poll.
WTF?
Is support for one T Abbott the love that dare not speak its name in polite company or something?
I realise there will be always variation between polls and polling methods, but one poll going one way and the other going in a completely different direction? from the same pollster?
Doesn’t make sense.]
Makes perfect sense. The F2F was before the CT announcement and the Phone poll was after. The move is around the margin of error anyway so a small drop and a small rise are essentially consistent (look at ALL the polls and the poll trends and you can see a crystal clear picture of what is going on, and what has been going on since Jan 2010 actually)
[I realise there will be always variation between polls and polling methods, but one poll going one way and the other going in a completely different direction? from the same pollster?
Doesn’t make sense.]
It does in Morganville. 😆
[(look at ALL the polls and the poll trends and you can see a crystal clear picture of what is going on, and what has been going on since Jan 2010 actually)]
Yep, the Government is winning the policy debate.
[shellbell
Posted Friday, July 15, 2011 at 4:32 pm | Permalink
Where is Frank?
Was asleep – went to bed at 4am.
[Gillard was not blaming the press, she was asking them to stop writing crap]
Thanks rua! 😉 😉
That has to be one of the funniest things I have read in ages!
poroti,
Tampa Boy is JWH.
Space Kidette
.
[Thanks for the link whoever provided the DAP analysis:]
Markjs was the one we should thank for that excellent link.
The putrid News Corpse and its copycat sidekick the ABC when reporting on the Government routinely lie, distort,exaggerate or ignore to help obscure the Governments messages.
The same duo polish, spin and distract to facilitate the Coalitions messages.
They both stand back and with the low cunning of habitual hypocrites innocently wonder why the Government has difficulty getting its messages out.
Evening ladies and gentlemen….nice to be back after a short ‘break’…thought I would give those who are somewhat or even more than somewhat unimpressed with the Leader of Her Majesty’s Opposition performance and general persona, by introducing you to the harmless but very satisfying slap a pollie game, in this case the said LOTO.
It’s easy, harmless, it is very satisfying and bound to relieve that built up frustration. Simply follow the link and use your mouse to slap for points, and if you slap hard enough a familiar friend will pop up and endorse your good slapping….so slap away
http://www.slapapollie.com/game/2/Abbott
And I’m hearing that O’Farrell is going to abolish casual loadings for govt workers.
Work Choices NSW lib style. The WA libs were too scared to do the same and backed away. O’Farrell believes his massive margin will protect him and stuff the fed libs.
[Tampa Boy is JWH.]
That’s all we need.