Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports the latest Newspoll has the Coalition with a 58-42 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 55-45 a fortnight ago. The primary votes are 27 per cent for Labor (down -3), 49 per cent for the Coalition (up +3) and 12 per cent for the Greens (up +1). More to follow, though probably not until tomorrow.

UPDATE (13/7/11): Very bad news for the government from a Galaxy survey of 500 respondents conducted on Monday night, which finds essentially no change in opinion on the carbon tax: only 29 per cent say that, “based on what you have seen or heard about the carbon tax”, they are supportive; fully 60 per cent are opposed. Galaxy has again pointlessly asked respondents if they think Gillard has a mandate for the tax or should instead call an election, a false dichotomy I railed against when they asked it six weeks ago, but since they have also asked the more sensible question it’s not such a problem. Terrifyingly for the government, only 10 per cent believe they will be better off under the carbon tax against 68 per cent worse off, despite what the Treasury modelling has to say on the subject.

UPDATE 2 (14/7/11): Essential Research has also published results for a question on the exclusion of fuel from the carbon tax, conducted for the Ten Network. I presume this formed part of last week’s survey, and was thus conducted before Sunday’s announcement. It has 30 per cent declaring themselves more likely to support the tax on the basis of the exclusion of fuel, 11 per cent less likely and 52 per cent saying it will make no difference.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,896 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42 to Coalition”

Comments Page 156 of 158
1 … 155 156 157 158

  1. [Makes perfect sense. The F2F was before the CT announcement and the Phone poll was after. ]

    Game set and match to Mod-Lib.

  6. [7646

    george

    Posted Friday, July 15, 2011 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

    remind=remind you
    ]

    George –

    If you can before it gets removed can you convert the streaming audio of Delroy’s Issue of the Day into a more permanent format please ? 🙂

  7. [TurnbullMalcolm Malcolm Turnbull
    @
    @abissicus true enough. But IMHO the media is far more diverse now than a decade ago.]

  8. BB at 7725:

    “She retorted that all scientists were bludgers, sucking off the public tit. When she asked what “those two guys” were doing (two young blokes down in the pit where we weren’t allowed to go) and was told they were PhD candidates, she said (in the worst strine accent you could imagine) “Uni students? We’re paying for Uni students?”.

    I nearly picked her up and threw her into the glowing blue swimming pool.”

    It’s enough to make you weep.

    Where do they think their radios, TV’s, mobile phones, disc players, computers etc etc etc come from? The beneficient sphincter of The Almighty?

    You should have chucked-her in, I reckon: “And this is fission, dear. Alpha particles are good for you”

  10. This little black duck
    .

    [Tampa Boy is JWH.]

    Where’s the barf emoticon when you need one ? What would be the point of having Howard on ? There will be nothing new. He will have no regrets he made no mistakes and it was fully justified and was beneficial to Australia. Glorious rewriting of history to burnish the legend of Howard the Great. Good would be JWH appearing with one of the Kiwi Tampa Boys.

  11. Does anyone know if Tony Abbott is still going to rollback (literally) the NBN as well? Never hear about it much these days.

    Where is Malcolm? Wasn’t he appointed Minister for Wrecking the NBN?

  13. Castle at 7749:

    [And I’m hearing that O’Farrell is going to abolish casual loadings for govt workers.]

    The nurses and teachers are gonna love that.

    Strike anyone?

  15. [TurnbullMalcolm Malcolm Turnbull
    A free society doesn’t license newspapers: Turnbull theconversation.edu.au/a-free-society… via @ConversationEDU]

    Turnbull refuses to be silenced.

  17. Mytwobobsworth, after seeing his terrible performance last night I slapped the living daylight out of him, Rudders loved it 😆
    Hope my say and victoria get into it, they need some relief.

  18. [Game set and match to Mod-Lib.]

    You’ve hijacked my sports-analogy technique

    Must we progressives provide all the ideas Glen?

  19. [In the ACT, the Greens went with Labor (Stanhope) rather than Zed. Sound familiar?]

    Zed has hockeys number skills and Tone’s negotiating skills then I take it?

  22. [A free society doesn’t license newspapers: Turnbull theconversation.edu.au/a-free-society… via @ConversationEDU]

    It also has newspapers that don’t require licensing in order to keep them away from criminal activities.

    Regrettably we clearly do.

  25. “@LaurieOakes: Dusted off the clip-board for a one-off on Sunday 8.35am.The Oakes Interview on Nine. Guest–Julia Gillard.”

  26. BB

    You might have pointed out that between now and the end of her miserable existence she will be depending on scientists on numerous occasions and that, to be consistent, she should refuse to accept such help.

    Wanting to be entirely consistent she would, no doubt, refuse for herself and her family anything having anything to do with:

    (1) public roads and the scientists who have spent years devising better safety arrangements
    (2) the public health system
    (3) any medical technology (developed by pesky scientists, much of the development subsidised by public funding and certainly depending for epidemiology on publicly-funded dabatases
    (4) radiation therapies (pesky sciences, pesky government reactor)

    She will not look at a weather forecast because these are based on the work of government scientists.

    She will, naturally, not use food grown in Australia because most of is derived from cultivars developed by government scientists. In particular, if she is eating wheat at all, it is almost certainly because some useless prick of a government scientist has wasted his life tracking rusts overseas and ensuring that the appropriate cultivars were ready and waiting when said rusts finally arrived in Oz.

    She apparently combines several qualities to a heroic degree: ignorance, arrogance, and stupidity. Oh, and a self-satisfied pride in her accomplishments.

    I congratulate you for not throwing her in. Not worth it.

  27. [Zed has hockeys number skills and Tone’s negotiating skills then I take it?]

    Hubris is to say the Tories will win by 110 seats in 2013.

    I’m not saying that.

    But what I am saying is on these numbers…

    Gillard is stuffed.
    Her policy is as popular as a hole in the head.
    It will most likely get a whole lot worse if that’s even possible with 60/40 🙂

  28. ruawake
    .
    [Mod Lib

    Thanks for confirming you did not watch the Press Club speech.]
    .
    Get with the program. In modern conservative politics reality optional. Reality,truth and facts have been reduced to the status of nuisance and best avoided in case they get in the way of your story.

  29. [Gary

    Posted Friday, July 15, 2011 at 6:44 pm | Permalink

    Don’t ya love the hubris of the conservative supporters?
    ]

    Yep, and I wonder which one will turn into a Thomas Paine wjhen Tony is eventually shown the door ? 🙂

  31. [Don’t ya love the hubris of the conservative supporters?]

    I’m waiting for someone to break-out into a rousing chorus of Springtime For Hitler and Germany anytime.

    Goose steps are new steps once more.

    We’re marching to a faster pace, look-out here comes the Master race.

  32. [But what I am saying is on these numbers…

    Gillard is stuffed.
    Her policy is as popular as a hole in the head.
    It will most likely get a whole lot worse if that’s even possible with 60/40 🙂 ]
    Polls measure the recent past, they don’t predict the future. Shouldn’t the last term tell us to be careful using poll results to predct election results 2 years out?

    If the Government passes the ETS, Abbott will never become P.M.

  34. [lapuntadelfin Darryl Snow
    I can see @TonyAbbottMHR claiming his role in future mooted RBA rate cuts . “I f–ked consumer confidence and saved the mortgage belt”
    ]

  37. [TurnbullMalcolm Malcolm Turnbull
    @
    @whereitsgoing no and yes – failure to raise the debt level would be disastrous for the us and the global economy.]

    Interesting. On this he would be at odds with some of his more rabid colleagues, and his counterparts in the US.

  38. [Hubris…]
    WHAT?

    So you can predict that Gillard will lose the next election, but I can’t predict that Abbott will never become PM!?

    HYPOCRISY!

  39. [How is she stuffed Glen two years out?]

    Enough time for Shorten or Combet that’s why Gary.

    I am not confident nobody can be this far out from an election but I’d rather be 60/40 ahead then the reverse wouldnt you? Especially when you’re trying to sell an unpopular reform like this.

  41. [So you can predict that Gillard will lose the next election, but I can’t predict that Abbott will never become PM!?]

    I never said Gillard would lose.

    The Member for ShowsOn will withdraw…

  42. [mfarnsworth Malcolm Farnsworth
    RT @DRoseTimes: Rebekah Brooks: “I have given Rupert and James Murdoch my resignation…. this time my resignation has been accepted” #notw
    ]

  44. [I am not confident nobody can be this far out from an election but I’d rather be 60/40 ahead then the reverse wouldnt you?]

    I’d rather be in government than opposition

  45. Business has been so desperate for certainty over the carbon price for several years and from the next sitting of parliament certainty can be had. So does anyone think business will be all for uncertainty out to 2015 ?
    From BK
    [UPDATE: Thanks to Antony Green for pointing out that the earliest a double dissolution election could be held would be, most likely, 2015, given the requirement for a sitting of the senators ]

  46. SK

    The Saudi chap how owns a motsa of Newscorp was already saying she was finished.

    She has been told.

    The folk who own 87% of Newscorp are on the move.

  49. [I am not confident nobody can be this far out from an election but I’d rather be 60/40 ahead then the reverse wouldnt you? Especially when you’re trying to sell an unpopular reform like this.]
    No, I’d rather have some policy reform on the table AND with the numbers in the parliament to get it through.

    The FIRST YEAR of a new parliamentary term is the term to get through reform, and if you can do it in a hung parliament that’s great.
    [I never said Gillard would lose.]
    You wrote that she is “stuffed”
    [The Member for ShowsOn will withdraw…]
    The Member for Glen will stop obfuscating.

  50. [Enough time for Shorten or Combet that’s why Gary.]
    Glen you are dreaming. She will be there at the next election and given this comment by you don’t seem confident and rightly so. Too far out.
    [I never said Gillard would lose.]

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 156 of 158
1 … 155 156 157 158