Another day (week, anyway), another near-record bad poll for Labor. This time it’s a face-to-face Morgan poll, which used to be the most favourable series going for Labor but has ceased to be so since the recent nosedive in their polling fortunes. The latest result combines the last two weekends of surveying and has the Labor primary vote plunging further from 35 per cent to 31.5 per cent – either a record low for Morgan face-to-face, or something very close to it – with the Coalition up from 46.5 per cent to 49 per cent. The Greens are steady on 11.5 per cent. In keeping with the recent trend, there is a wide gap between the two-party score as measured by respondent allocation (58.5-41.5, up from 54.5 to 45.5 a fortnight ago) and the results of the previous election (56.5-43.5, up from 53.5-46.5).
UPDATE (11/7): The latest Essential Research poll shows – guess what – its worst result for Labor ever. The Coalition lead is now 57-43, up from 56-44 last time, with primary votes of 50 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 30 per cent for Labor (down two) and 11 per cent for the Greens (steady). The monthly reading of leaders’ personal ratings concurs with Newspoll in having Julia Gillard on 29 per cent approval (down five) and 62 per cent disapproval (up eight), and Tony Abbott leading Gillard as preferred prime minister 39 per cent to 37 per cent. Abbott’s ratings are 39 per cent approval (up one) and 49 per cent disapproval (up one). Support for carbon pricing has further deteriorated, with support down three to 35 per cent and opposition up four to 53 per cent. This of course was conducted entirely before yesterday’s policy announcement. Most intriguingly for election buffs, there is a question on the preferred voting system – though they’ve squibbed it in my opinion by not including proportional representation. It is found that 44 per cent would prefer first past the post, which some will no doubt dishonestly interpret as representing majority support for that system. However, the two kinds of preferential voting on offer collectively accounted for 48 per cent – 22 per cent for the compulsory preferential system we have at federal level, and 26 per cent for the optional preferential system which they have for New South Wales and Victorian state elections, and which Britain recently voted against in its “AV” referendum. Eighty-two per cent say they would or probably would vote if voting were voluntary; unfortunately, respondents were not asked if they thought compulsory vote a good idea. There’s also some stuff there on the foreign aid budget.
Another 400ppm worshipper.
14 negs; 1 mid; 2 pros.
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
Let me say again about my fellow Australians: You selfish bastards #qanda #auspol
3 seconds ago
[“Don’t freak out at the Newspoll” ]
Yeah, it could be worse!
This country will NEVER grow up!
14-2 and another Jones editorial.
Jones has been a snide prick tonight.
Another question, another neg; Another interruption by Mr Jones. count that as additional neg.
17 negs; 1 mid; 2 pros.
[5848
BK
Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:13 pm | Permalink
This country will NEVER grow up!
]
It never has – it has regeressed back to childhood thanks to JWH.
my abc friend was right
:9
[george
Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:09 pm | Permalink
Thats catastrophic for Gillard. May have to review my prediction that she will be gone by December…
Any time you wish to put your money where your mouth is, let me know]
You don’t have a good track record of admitting mistakes george, not sure I would be able to collect that money.
This bloke is polite.
So psephs, how many first time voters will there be in 2013? Matters.
Another snide follow up from Mr Abbott: neg. + another mid Q.
18 negs; 2 mid; 2 pros.
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
Tony Jones, you are not the star of the Show, SHUT UP!!!!!!!!! #qanda #auspol
8 seconds ago
[my abc friend was right
:9]
Gus
About what?
I don’t know any 18 year olds who are worried about job losses in mining or the coal industry
Mr Jones follow up neg:
19 negs; 2 mid; 2 pros.
[george
Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:15 pm | Permalink
I don’t know any 18 year olds who are worried about job losses in mining or the coal industry]
…dare I say: get out more.
Mr Jones another neg follow up. + one neg.
20 negs; 2 mid; 2 pros.
If anyone thinks that that the Government will be able to “push on” through a PM approval in sub-30’s, behind on the PPM and sub-30 Primary vote is kidding themselves.
If the polling and mood improves, then yes.
Just wait till Gina smuggles all the coal out of WA.
Is the Carbon Tax money gift story in time for Gillard Labor? Or have they already fallen over the edge and sitting in the pool at the bottom of Niagra?
As I have said a few times, this is Gillard’s 11th hour, her hail mary pass (ironically forced on her by the Greens, irony abounds here). But Labor lack is that energetic confident person that cuts through, that the people will listen to. It is monotic Gillard and her very competent off siders, but few that stand out. Now is the time for Combet to go feral and get out and about like a maniac, this is the last ditch attempt.
You have the feeling that 42/58 is not too far from the truth since the trend has been heading that way again.
I think what WB said before could actually be true. Confidence in Gillard Labor has collapsed (not that it reached any heights to begin with).
I did offer a few suggestions in the past as to how Gillard could improve her standing. Maybe some are wishing she went down that path now.
Mr snide interruptor just told Ms Gillard to shorten her islands!
21 negs; 2 mid; 2 pros.
[…dare I say: get out more.]
BS
bk
the abc is in full fib mode
🙁
(see my earlier post from last friday)
Jones wants shorter answers. I want less Jones.
[I don’t know any 18 year olds who are worried about job losses in mining or the coal industry]
You joking?
The PM has done well tonight.
When will Abbott appear in such a format?
[I did offer a few suggestions in the past as to how Gillard could improve her standing. Maybe some are wishing she went down that path now.]
Nope, but thanks for the advice
whoops islands = answers
[gloryconsequence
Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:17 pm | Permalink
If anyone thinks that that the Government will be able to “push on” through a PM approval in sub-30?s, behind on the PPM and sub-30 Primary vote is kidding themselves.
If the polling and mood improves, then yes.
]
You mean like Prme Ministers Beazley and Latham ?
Next….
Ever had an original thought youngen, “give us a guarantee”, nother dickhead.
[When will Abbott appear in such a format?]
Never!
Mr Jones neg follow up again. + 1 neg.
22 negs; 2 mid; 2 pos.
Another mid Q
22 negs; 3 mid; 2 pos.
Frank – the Government can’t lose one seat. One. Seat.
Another 400ppm worshipper.
23 negs; 3 mid; 2 pos.
@Mod Lib/5854,
If your so comfortable with Liberals leading, why bother come here to nag and annoy others?
Mr Jones, ‘Can I interrupt there…’ Then interrupts again. + 1 neg.
24 neg; 3 mid; 2 pos.
Right PM – personally guarantee all jobs in Australia and tell China how to run its domestic energy policy. Tony says so.
Oh, and answer more quickly, you are taking Tony’s time off him.
And yet another Jones insertion. You actually cannot keep up with them.
Boerwar,
E-mail Scott, cc Conroy & Cameron?
glory
yes.they.can
try again
Another 400ppm worshipper.
25 neg; 3 mid; 2 pos.
[gloryconsequence
Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:19 pm | Permalink
Frank – the Government can’t lose one seat. One. Seat.
]
Spare me the negativity – either you will help fight or you will roll over and help Abbott become PM.
At the present time – you are leaning towards the latter.
Does last dickhead pay tax?
[24 neg; 3 mid; 2 pos.]
I said last night that the ABC was running an agenda against the CT in its coverage. Nothing I’ve seen since has convinced me otherwise.
b
qanda has failed badly tonite
the bastards
I had to turn off.
Ms. Gillard’s style is too confected.
I just wish she’d engage on a more confident and natural level.
The chortles and giggles are just irritating, I’m in a perpetual state of embarrassment for her because I feel others are see through her awkwardness.
Tell me I’m wrong. Call me names.
I can’t help it. That’s the way she come s across to me…and I think she’s fabulous.
I don’t see any of her famed ‘negotiating’ skills on display here.
PS Tony Jones is a disgrace.
[zoidlord
Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:20 pm | Permalink
@Mod Lib/5854,
If your so comfortable with Liberals leading, why bother come here to nag and annoy others?]
I thought this was a blog for people to comment about politics?
If it is a blog for ALP supporters to pat themselves on the back (or insult each other like George, Gus and Frank vs. Rosemour and Gloryconsequence last night) you should probably tell Bilbo.
[I don’t know any 18 year olds who are worried about job losses in mining or the coal industry]
the “any” should have been “many” – my point:
-The median age of mining industry employees was 39 years (41 years for males and 36 years for females).
-The largest age group for both males and females was 25 to 34 years of age.
http://www.commerce.wa.gov.au/labourrelations/PDF/Publications/IndustryMining.pdf
““give us a guarantee”, nother dickhead”
I’d have given him one along the following lines: If we don’t act now, then by the time your kids are the same age as TJ here, I can guarantee that the World’s climate will be irretrievably fu*ked.