Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition

Another day (week, anyway), another near-record bad poll for Labor. This time it’s a face-to-face Morgan poll, which used to be the most favourable series going for Labor but has ceased to be so since the recent nosedive in their polling fortunes. The latest result combines the last two weekends of surveying and has the Labor primary vote plunging further from 35 per cent to 31.5 per cent – either a record low for Morgan face-to-face, or something very close to it – with the Coalition up from 46.5 per cent to 49 per cent. The Greens are steady on 11.5 per cent. In keeping with the recent trend, there is a wide gap between the two-party score as measured by respondent allocation (58.5-41.5, up from 54.5 to 45.5 a fortnight ago) and the results of the previous election (56.5-43.5, up from 53.5-46.5).

UPDATE (11/7): The latest Essential Research poll shows – guess what – its worst result for Labor ever. The Coalition lead is now 57-43, up from 56-44 last time, with primary votes of 50 per cent for the Coalition (up one), 30 per cent for Labor (down two) and 11 per cent for the Greens (steady). The monthly reading of leaders’ personal ratings concurs with Newspoll in having Julia Gillard on 29 per cent approval (down five) and 62 per cent disapproval (up eight), and Tony Abbott leading Gillard as preferred prime minister 39 per cent to 37 per cent. Abbott’s ratings are 39 per cent approval (up one) and 49 per cent disapproval (up one). Support for carbon pricing has further deteriorated, with support down three to 35 per cent and opposition up four to 53 per cent. This of course was conducted entirely before yesterday’s policy announcement. Most intriguingly for election buffs, there is a question on the preferred voting system – though they’ve squibbed it in my opinion by not including proportional representation. It is found that 44 per cent would prefer first past the post, which some will no doubt dishonestly interpret as representing majority support for that system. However, the two kinds of preferential voting on offer collectively accounted for 48 per cent – 22 per cent for the compulsory preferential system we have at federal level, and 26 per cent for the optional preferential system which they have for New South Wales and Victorian state elections, and which Britain recently voted against in its “AV” referendum. Eighty-two per cent say they would or probably would vote if voting were voluntary; unfortunately, respondents were not asked if they thought compulsory vote a good idea. There’s also some stuff there on the foreign aid budget.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,001 comments on “Morgan: 56.5-43.5 to Coalition”

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  1. She’s not explaining the answer to this question very clearly. She answered it well last time she was on the show.

  2. [Mod Lib

    Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:22 pm | Permalink

    zoidlord
    Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:20 pm | Permalink
    @Mod Lib/5854,

    If your so comfortable with Liberals leading, why bother come here to nag and annoy others?

    I thought this was a blog for people to comment about politics?

    If it is a blog for ALP supporters to pat themselves on the back (or insult each other like George, Gus and Frank vs. Rosemour and Gloryconsequence last night) you should probably tell Bilbo.
    ]

    Cry Me A River.

  3. #Newspoll Price on Carbon: Support 30 (0) Opposed 59 (-1) #auspol #qanda #CarbonTax

    This is what has to change a whole lot for Gillard. Its big margin in public opinion to pull back, hence the big headline money ‘gifts’ and over compensation. I think the only thing left for Gillard Labor is spray money around aka Howard.

  4. [If it is a blog for ALP supporters to pat themselves on the back (or insult each other like George, Gus and Frank vs. Rosemour and Gloryconsequence last night) you should probably tell Bilbo.]

    are you going to play cry-baby now?

  10. [george

    Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:24 pm | Permalink

    If it is a blog for ALP supporters to pat themselves on the back (or insult each other like George, Gus and Frank vs. Rosemour and Gloryconsequence last night) you should probably tell Bilbo.

    are you going to play cry-baby now?
    ]

    You got it in one – it’s the standard ploy he and Glen employ when they get soome plastic surgery perofred on a certain part of the body 🙂

  12. I can never figure out what Jones is up to. I suspect he just loves to make himself part of the story and cant stand anybody talking for more than 5 seconds. A very disrespectful moron.

  14. Bloody hell! Tony Jones is brain damaged tonight.

    If it becomes uneconomic to build coal power stations because of a carbon price, that is NOT PICKING WINNERS.

    That is the FUNCTION OF THE MARKET, that is HOW THE SYSTEM IS MEANT TO WORK!

  20. So Jones is also setting up the questions to come? BTW QandA normally posts the audience percentage before it goes to air. Did anyone see it on Twitter tonight?

  21. So Jones is also setting up the questions to come? BTW QandA normally posts the audience percentage before it goes to air. Did anyone see it on Twitter tonight?

  22. [Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    Tonite #qanda audience is a parade of The Ugly Australians
    4 seconds ago]

    That may be…but they’re going to put Toxic Tony in the Lodge if the government doesn’t start fighting back.
    They seem oblivious to the dire position they’re in right now.

    I don’t know.
    Maybe if Gillard looked more like Michelle Gratten?

  23. Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    Where are the 36% ALP supporters on #qanda tonight or it is simply 100% Coalition
    3 seconds ago

  25. [Bloody hell! Tony Jones is brain damaged tonight.]

    I’ve arleady switched off. Tonight has been appalling from the ABC. LIke I said last night, they’ve run with an agenda of running the CT down, regardless.

  26. Mr Jones with another neg follow up. The prick* is trying to lead on policy by asking for a guarantee. Forget neutrality.

    30 neg; 4 mid; 2 pro.

    *very rare ad hominem by Boerwar who is being pushed beyond reason by unreasonable situation.

  37. Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    @
    @abcmarkscott Mr. Scott, tonight #qanda is shameful. All the questions were negative as if there was no support whatsoever for the Govt
    10 seconds ago

  38. Boerwar your counting is way off. You have only 2 pros but what about the dorothy dixers from the youth climate coalition and other video questions. All positive.

  39. Mr Jones did not like Ms Gillard skewering Mr Abbott so does a follow-up on the debate.
    another neg.

    31 neg; 6 mid; 2 pro.

  40. I think it’s time I have a break from this place. Maybe a permanent one.

    For anyone who cares, I have always voted Labor, and will always vote Labor. It’s in my blood. My uncle contested a Federal seat in the past. My father was a political analyst at an Adelaide uni.

    I came here hoping for political discussion. I have tried to fit in and get to “know” the personalities around here.

    But most importantly, I’ve tried to be honest. There is a serious disconnect amongst this forum and the wider community. If you actually spent time discussing the nature of the current political climate in the country, rather than slap each other on the back, it would help.

    It’s been suggested around here that I’m either a remorseful Rudd fan or a Lib troll. Neither is true – I support the Labor leader.

    Does that mean I agree with everything? No. I think the Malaysian Solution is perhaps the worst political stance Labor has taken in its history.

    Overwhelmingly, I support Labor and what we stand for. I support the PM. I will vote for her.

    But for people to sit here and suggest “things will be OK” is ludicrous. The people are not listening to the Prime Minister. She has burned her bridges with the electorate.

    I can’t say Tony Abbott will be the next Prime Minister. But I can with confidence that Julia will not be.

    With that, farewell. I’m sure that nobody cares.

  42. [MathiasCormann Mathias Cormann
    Debate is not about the science but about whether Labor’s tax will make things better or worse. Our contention is the latter. #qanda]

  43. [Thomas Paine
    Posted Monday, July 11, 2011 at 10:33 pm | Permalink
    42/58 Rudd was knifed at 52/48
    Mistake much?]

    Rudd could haev argued this is 2008 but not 2009 or 2010.

    Gillard hasn’t got a hope from where she starts.

  44. g
    I care. My fingers are x’ed. But as the PM has just said. We have words and we have actions. Better to have acted than not to have tried.

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