Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Keen followers of the comments threads will be aware I’ve had my eye off the ball a bit over the past day or so, and hence missed the always enjoyable quarterly Newspoll geographic and demographic breakdowns. These point to swings against Labor of 4.5 per cent in New South Wales, 3.3 per cent in Victoria, 2.9 per cent in Queensland, 3.2 per cent in South Australia and 1.6 per cent in Western Australia – although since they cover the past three months, they are a little more flattering to Labor than the polling picture as it stands right now. More from Peter Brent at Mumble and Simon Jackman at Stanford University.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,636 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  11. I don’t understand why people are saying Abbott is a DLPer. The DLP wouldn’t of voted for WorkChoices the way Abbott did.

  15. The Government hammering Abbott over his pertol lies.

    This has ben referred to in just about every answer so far, along with calls for him to apologise to the misled.

  17. ShowsOn@2411

    I don’t understand why people are saying Abbott is a DLPer. The DLP wouldn’t of voted for WorkChoices the way Abbott did.

    The DLP would have moved an amendment for compulsory religious instruction and a weekly confession to the boss in exchange for any pay rise.

  18. ShowsOn
    .
    “I don’t understand why people are saying Abbott is a DLPer”
    .
    I think it stems from Tony Abbott saying that B.A. Santamaria was “his first political mentor”.

  19. More *Magic Pudding* accounting, or as zero hedge says –

    that’s how you create wealth in the modern, centrally-planned USSA.

    Banks Commence Wholesale, Unsolicited Mortgage-Debt Forgiveness

    The NYT reports that “big banks are going to borrowers who are not even in default and cutting their debt or easing the mortgage terms, sometimes with no questions asked.

    Two of the nation’s biggest lenders, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America, are quietly modifying loans for tens of thousands of borrowers who have not asked for help but whom the banks deem to be at special risk.”

    To be deemed in “special risk” one needs to simply have an Option ARM mortgage, and be underwater, even if still current on mortgage payments.

    End result: an up to 50% cut in the actual mortgage obligation.

    To wit: “Ms. Giosmas, who lives in Miami, was not in default on her $300,000 loan. She did not understand why she would receive this gift — although she wasted no time in taking it.

    Before Chase shaved $150,000 off her mortgage, Ms. Giosmas owed much more on her place than it was worth. It was a fate she shared with a quarter of all homeowners with mortgages across the nation. Being underwater, as it is called, can prevent these owners from moving and taking new jobs, and places the households at greater risk of foreclosure.”

    Whether this is a strategic step by the banks who wish to avoid tens if not hundreds of billions in fraudclosure and putback related legal costs, charges and reserves is for now unclear, although all signs point to yes. Next up: everyone in America stops paying their mortgage, or demands a 50% haircut on existing debt, now that the example has been made.

    And in the meantime, banks will somehow continue to keep the mortgages, which they have now cut by up to half, at par on their books following some brand new, thoroughly senseless announcement by the FASB which says banks can mark anything to whatever price they chose in perpetuity.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/banks-commence-wholesale-unsolicited-mortgage-forgiveness

  21. [The DLP would have moved an amendment for compulsory religious instruction and a weekly confession to the boss in exchange for any pay rise.]
    The DLP is a Labor party. It would’ve voted against WorkChoices in total the way the ALP did.
    [I think it stems from Tony Abbott saying that B.A. Santamaria was “his first political mentor”.]
    Who told Abbott to join the Right of the ALP.

  22. I have emailed Albo the No No No Abbott song link, I am sure he will enjoy it as he introduced the NO NO NO line in the House.

  23. It’s a good ad, david.

    Especially the last line: “Even Jesus didn’t say yes to everyone..”

    Nice touch.

  24. Monckton’s ‘tour’ is turning out to be a plus for carbon action. But what a proud day for Gary Morgan:

    German clubs ditch Monckton tour…someone tell Ticketek

    Crikey senior journalist Andrew Crook writes:

    Lord Monckton’s second tour of Australia is in tatters after another venue withdrew its offer to host the notorious climate sceptic, despite tickets for the dates still being spruiked online and sold through Ticketek.

    Crikey can reveal that the German Club Tivoli, located in the inner-Melbourne suburb of Windsor and originally scheduled to host two speeches from Monckton on July 20, has ditched its support following the Nazi swastika scandal that has made the ex-Margaret Thatcher adviser a laughing stock.

    It leaves Monckton with only one remaining fixture in Australia’s second largest city — a function hosted by pollster Gary Morgan in league with the conservative Institute of Public Enterprise in the CBD.

  25. [If Tone is appearing on 730 it can only be because he’s starting to feel the pressure of commentators attacking him for avoiding scrutiny.]

    How did a 730 appearance get organised so quickly? Did he call them or did they call him?

  27. The DLP was and is a bunch of superstitious idiots who want to impose their medieval practices on everyone else, before any generally beneficial policy.

  30. Why doesn’t the PM say every time she is asked about the delay in live trade resuming

    ‘if Warren Truss had set it up properly in the first place we would already be back in the trade” or wtte. Why did he exempt the NLIS from the northern trade anyway?

  32. ShowsOn

    He’s DLP. His political hero was B.A Santamaria.

    He’s what’s known within the Liberal Party as a ‘grouper.’ If he had his way, the Liberal Party would adopt centralised wage fixing as an IR policy in order to split the ALP.

  38. Showson

    In Battlelines, one of his close friends urged him to join the ALP in the early 1990’s but he declined. He admits to voting for Barrie Unsworth in the NSW state election 1988 as well if I recall correctly.

  40. jv

    Yeah but that poll is built on the shifting sands of dozens of lies, hundreds of lies, repeated thousands of times in the MSM.

    Plenty of time. You can relax.

  41. Much as the thought of defending Abbott is appalling I gather from press comments that in fact he was not supportive of workchoices. He has the odd “populist” stance that is consistent with DLP roots and a Santamaria approach.

    I think if Abbott had been 5-10 years older he would now be a staunch member of the NSW right. It was only in the 1980s that being Catholic was acceptable in the Liberal party.– Mind you he is not really Irish either, which may be a factor in him selecting the Libs as opposed to the NSW right.

  42. one of his close friends urged him to join the ALP in the early 1990?s but he declined.

    Thank frick for that

  43. jaundiced view
    “The DLP was and is a bunch of superstitious idiots who want to impose their medieval practices on everyone else, before any generally beneficial policy.”
    .
    All before my time but from what one writer said of B.A. Santamaria’s ideal world being a form of Agrarian Feudalism with church domination would be close to the mark

  47. Boerwar@2440

    jv

    Yeah but that poll is built on the shifting sands of dozens of lies, hundreds of lies, repeated thousands of times in the MSM.

    Plenty of time. You can relax.

    I’m very relaxed. We have the rare good fortune of the HoR being kept honest by the Greens and indies, and the Greens now with the balance in the senate. Bring on the progressive policies and amendments!

  50. Mr Bruce Scott cocks up a rather confused question to such an extent that the Speaker has to ask him whether he has concluded his question.

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