The latest result from Roy Morgan combines its last two weekends of face-to-face polling from a sample of 1776, and finds the Labor primary vote recovering slightly to 35 per cent (up 1.5 per cent on the weekend of June 4-5), the Coalition steady on 46.5 per cent and the Greens down half a point to 11.5 per cent. On the two-party preferred measure that allocates preferences as per the result of the previous election (my favourite), the Coalition’s lead has gone from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5; it’s down more substantially on the respondent-allocated measure favoured by Morgan (lately), from 56.5-43.5 to 54.5-45.5.
Now it’s time for PB Chart of the Week, a feature that may or may not live up to its name over the long term. With Labor polling disastrously in every jurisdiction, I thought it might be instructive to plot the party’s federal and state voting performance since the inception of Newspoll in late 1985 (I’ve started at the beginning of 1986 for the sake of neatness). The chart below shows combined quarterly measures for Labor’s two-party vote, both federally (which is quite straightforward) and at state level (a population-weighted result with the larger states accounting for proportionally greater shares of the result, and Tasmania excluded because Newspoll doesn’t do them regularly).
What we see is that the party’s federal and state fortunes do seem to be quite closely related. While Labor was travelling better at federal than state level from 1986 to 1990 and again since 2008, they tended to move up and down (actually just down more recently) in tandem within those periods. However, this may be because the respondents for Newspoll’s federal and state surveys are usually the same people. The two lines sat very closely together throughout the 1990s, but decoupled as Labor achieved state-level dominance in the Howard years. The impression more recently is of the federal line chasing the tail of the states, although recent form suggests the downward federal trend wouldn’t have bottomed out yet.
If the results don’t quite bear out talk of Labor being in record-breaking dire straits at present – at least to the extent that they do not appear in a worse position than in the twilight of the Keating years – it should be noted that the picture would look worse for them if I was using the primary vote rather than two-party preferred.
UPDATE (27/6/11): Essential Research: 55-45 (steady). Coalition 48% (+1), Labor 32% (-1), Greens 11% (-1). “If Kevin Rudd was Labor leader”, 45 per cent say they would vote Labor against 42 per cent for the Coalition, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party. Similarly, the Coalition leads 59-41 if Malcolm Turnbull was leader. In both cases I suggest you have to account for mischief-making by supporters of the other party.
[Iz insulted: no Colonel!]
Boo-hoo 🙁
[Er Joe, the fastest early runners NEVER win the Melbourne Cup.]
Might and Power led all the way to win in 1997.
Glen!!
Oi oi oi 😀
Glen
Ah. So you still believe Mr Howard?
It is extaordinary how people will stick to an idea in the face of a huge amount of evidence to the contrary.
[3746
george
Posted Monday, June 27, 2011 at 10:33 pm | Permalink
Not according to Unca.
Glen’s one and only fountain of all knowledge
]
Is Glen Hewie, Lewie or Dewie ?
Cos They called Scrooge Unca 🙂
OK Diog – rarely.
[I used to work for Joe Hockey]
Shineybum, I’ve heard he extorts everybody’s lunch money – is that true?
Tomic v Malisse 6/1 7/5 6/4.
Geeze, Joe’s heart really didn’t seem to be in it tonight.
Albo top notch as always
What a great election slogan Sloppy just came up with:
“Vote for us and we’ll throw 12,000 of you out on to the scrap heap”.
What a complete and utter buffoon. If this arsehead ever gets his hands on the keys to the Treasury, we’d all be better of moving to Zimbabwe.
charlton
Damn. The MSM will wet its collective pants. Over nothing important. Again.
Yep, the Liberals can deliver tax cuts, fund promises and keep the budget in surplus at the same time.
They just don’t want treasury to cost any of it.
Sorry, it’s just unacceptable!
[Tomic v Malisse 6/1 7/5 6/4.]
At last! Relief from LL Hewitt.
[Ah. So you still believe Mr Howard?]
Tony Abbott aint a boot lace of Howard!
Howard is Prime Minister who got things done in this country, stuck to his guns, had policy vision, did things that were right not just popular, and left this country in far far far better shape than he received it in 1996.
[Er Joe, the fastest early runners NEVER win the Melbourne Cup.]
Unless the runners name is Lord Fury and you are paying 25/1. 😀
He’s a nasty piece of work
[Boerwar
Posted Monday, June 27, 2011 at 10:12 pm | Permalink
I hope Tomic loses. Seriously.]
Get a life.
[Dan Gulberry
Posted Monday, June 27, 2011 at 10:36 pm | Permalink
What a great election slogan Sloppy just came up with:
“Vote for us and we’ll throw 12,000 of you out on to the scrap heap”.
What a complete and utter buffoon. If this arsehead ever gets his hands on the keys to the Treasury, we’d all be better of moving to Zimbabwe.
]
Is that to replace those who moved to WA and Vote en Masse for the Libs ? 🙂
[Howard is Prime Minister who got things done in this country, stuck to his guns,]
actually he banned guns
try a new phrase
Tell us more Shineybum
Shineybum
Do tell? 🙂
Or Might And Power, Gaffhook 🙂
Hmmmmmmm
http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/breaking/9718291/federal-police-pull-out-of-most-of-wa/
Tomic won 1-5-4.
Off to watch recorded Maeve in French Food Safari. See youse in30 or so.
[lapuntadelfin And they say the Carbon Tax *may* cost jobs. Hockey guaranteed 12,000 lost jobs without one. Your choice? #qanda #auspol ]
ZING
Shineybum
Let me guess. Lazy, shallow, vengeful.
[What a great election slogan Sloppy just came up with:
“Vote for us and we’ll throw 12,000 of you out on to the scrap heap”.]
Dan I was just thinking that, and I hope Labor bring it up again and again.
[lapuntadelfin: And they say the Carbon Tax *may* cost jobs. Hockey guaranteed 12,000 lost jobs without one. Your choice? #qanda #auspol]
Hockey and his cohorts have been banging on about job losses with a carbon tax, but without blinking is prepared to piss off 12,000 jobs for what reason?
Gusface – you beat me to it. 🙂
george
And that was only in Canberra! Joe’s words.
[Let me guess. Lazy, shallow, vengeful.]
A flimsy cutout of his opposite number?
Touche’
Yeah but that 12,000 jobs is lazy public servants, not something idolized like trades or miners
And very abusive
[And that was only in Canberra! Joe’s words.]
Just on the 12,000 – that’s TWELVE THOUSAND – jobs they are prepared to axe, can anyone think of any one industry where that number of jobs could be lost and it could continue to function.
Is Joe absolutely stupid to even think about uttering this on TV?
I didn’t back Might and Power.
[And very abusive]
Shinybum
Can I take it that my guess was on the money then?
Unfortunately, Hockey is actually on a winner with the public service jobs.
Most people have little idea about what public servants do and fully believe they do very little while enjoying large salaries.
He was being very clever by mentioning Canberra as there is a common feeling of it being an ‘other’ space to the rest of the country.
All very sad. Those thinking that there will be a backlash over this, be prepared for disappointment.
Joe- we’ll cut 12000 public servants on to the scrap heap.
In QT
Joe- Will the treasurer guarantee that one job will not be lost in the steel industry……?
Glad i am only knocking my head against a gyprock wall not a brick one.
BigBob
Most of the Canberra Public Servants I have encountered are very conscientious, hardworking people.
BigBob
Hockey works in the public service. He can be one of the first to get the boot!
[Unfortunately, Hockey is actually on a winner with the public service jobs.
Most people have little idea about what public servants do and fully believe they do very little while enjoying large salaries.
He was being very clever by mentioning Canberra as there is a common feeling of it being an ‘other’ space to the rest of the country.
All very sad. Those thinking that there will be a backlash over this, be prepared for disappointment.]
Even though I don’t think you are correct, I think that you’re missing the point – the opposition just lost all credibility in asking Labor “how many jobs *could* be lost” from pricing carbon when Joe’s just announced on national television that he WILL be getting rid of 12,000 Australian jobs!
So sacking 12,000 lazy public servants can fund Abbott’s $10.5 billion promises, subsidise pollurters, deliver tax cuts and bring the budget back to surplus 1 year ahead of Labor.
Yeah, Tony Abbott would have a better chance crucifying himself on the cross and rising from the dead three days later to prove JC did it around 2000 years ago.
[ombat1974Andrew Callaghan
12,000 jobs to go if the Liberals take office. If you work in the public service and vote Liberal, you’re voting your own job away.
6 minutes agoFavoriteUndo RetweetReply]
Will work a treat in Canberra.
Where is Newspoll?!
Are there any public servants in Canberra that actually vote Liberal?
[polarouse: Hockey and Sloan summary: Lower taxes, less funding for education and health, no climate change mitigation, and cut 12k jobs #qanda]
I think this pretty much sums up the Opposition – for anyone voting Liberal, you’re proud of these guys???
sorry if I offend itep
[LATIKAMBOURKE | 2 minutes ago
Parliament wants to review the way the media operates inside the building.]
I’ve never met anyone outside of Canberra who didn’t think that sacking people in Canberra wasn’t a good idea.
Sorry for the triple negative. Um.
All the people I’ve met outside Canberra like the idea of sacking people in Canberra.