Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition

The latest result from Roy Morgan combines its last two weekends of face-to-face polling from a sample of 1776, and finds the Labor primary vote recovering slightly to 35 per cent (up 1.5 per cent on the weekend of June 4-5), the Coalition steady on 46.5 per cent and the Greens down half a point to 11.5 per cent. On the two-party preferred measure that allocates preferences as per the result of the previous election (my favourite), the Coalition’s lead has gone from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5; it’s down more substantially on the respondent-allocated measure favoured by Morgan (lately), from 56.5-43.5 to 54.5-45.5.

Now it’s time for PB Chart of the Week, a feature that may or may not live up to its name over the long term. With Labor polling disastrously in every jurisdiction, I thought it might be instructive to plot the party’s federal and state voting performance since the inception of Newspoll in late 1985 (I’ve started at the beginning of 1986 for the sake of neatness). The chart below shows combined quarterly measures for Labor’s two-party vote, both federally (which is quite straightforward) and at state level (a population-weighted result with the larger states accounting for proportionally greater shares of the result, and Tasmania excluded because Newspoll doesn’t do them regularly).

What we see is that the party’s federal and state fortunes do seem to be quite closely related. While Labor was travelling better at federal than state level from 1986 to 1990 and again since 2008, they tended to move up and down (actually just down more recently) in tandem within those periods. However, this may be because the respondents for Newspoll’s federal and state surveys are usually the same people. The two lines sat very closely together throughout the 1990s, but decoupled as Labor achieved state-level dominance in the Howard years. The impression more recently is of the federal line chasing the tail of the states, although recent form suggests the downward federal trend wouldn’t have bottomed out yet.

If the results don’t quite bear out talk of Labor being in record-breaking dire straits at present – at least to the extent that they do not appear in a worse position than in the twilight of the Keating years – it should be noted that the picture would look worse for them if I was using the primary vote rather than two-party preferred.

UPDATE (27/6/11): Essential Research: 55-45 (steady). Coalition 48% (+1), Labor 32% (-1), Greens 11% (-1). “If Kevin Rudd was Labor leader”, 45 per cent say they would vote Labor against 42 per cent for the Coalition, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party. Similarly, the Coalition leads 59-41 if Malcolm Turnbull was leader. In both cases I suggest you have to account for mischief-making by supporters of the other party.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,934 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition”

  1. The MSM gives the neo cons plenty of oxygen over there, it’s a level playing field over here 😉

    I would love to get 2GB’s Gloria on here at PB and kick her butt 😀

    *night bludgers*

  2. History people:

    [

    richardtuffinRichardTuffin

    Wow… RT @GhostWhoVotes: @richardtuffin The first 3 Howard/Rudd #Newspoll matchups. #auspol

    3 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply

    richardtuffinRichardTuffin

    @

    @GhostWhoVotes When was the last time a LNP leader was preferred PM? Pre. Kevin 07?

    8 minutes ago]

  3. [gordongrahamGordon Graham

    Laura Tingle said a month ago that when Abbott overtook Gillard in the preferred PM rating, there would be greater scrutiny on him #auspol

    57 seconds agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  4. TheLastWord,

    [The headline in the Australian states, “…now the most unpopular modern prime minister since Paul Keating at his worst”. According to Newspoll’s own website this is not the case. On March 9-11 2001 John Howard had figures of 28-64 2 points worse than Gillard in this poll. ]

    Blimey, the OO wouldn’t be stretching the truth here at all would they? 😉

  5. Well, I have been quieter tonight but I have appreciated the posting. I am amazed that I can ‘watch’ Tv without seeing it. Love the commentary guys.

    The ground has definitely shifted and we need to keep the momentum going. Nervous nellies now is not the time for internal reservations and endless (and I must say pointless) ruminations over past events.

    I am very impressed with JG and I am with BH – I will back her to the hilt. Time for marching and fighting not sitting the trenches and whinging about why we are here. The enemy has never been more clear. WE, not just Julia and the team in Canberra, are taking on the corporate scum and we can only win this united. We lose and Australia will become a second sadder USA.

    Thanks btw Frank for Eric Ripper’s speech – worth reading.

    We on the progressive side of politics are the only people standing up for those who have no MSM cheer squad, no corporate backers and no slimy PR advisors.

  6. I actually thought the poll would be worse after all the anniversary rubbish.

    MSM don’t like to be taken for fools (even if they are) obviously.

    And I think that Abbott is not leading the Party where many actually want to go. I know people have been talking about sacking public servants but that was then, this is now. We’ll see. That was before Work Choices dented the armour.

    Anyway best news is Abbott will stay in charge! Sweet Dreams 😉

    *night all*

  7. [Thanks btw Frank for Eric Ripper’s speech – worth reading.]

    pity so-called ALP supporters chose to rubbish it.

    I reckom we really have a chance with Ripper – If the WA police do decide to disrupt CHOGM then Col’s Halo will be really slipping.

  8. 3911–nicely put, and that’s besides the mysterious fact the media don’t report about it still being over two years before an election. G’night.

  9. [pity so-called ALP supporters chose to rubbish it.]
    The speech is drivel, it is a mish-mash of platitudes and motherhood statements combined with an unworkable anti-uranium mining policy stunt that W.A. Labor obviously plagiarised from the Greens.

  10. Honestly, at what stage do people start looking at what the problem is? Something is going very very wrong for Labor, and consistently for a year. The public are sending a clear message that they do not like what they see.

  11. [Thomas Paine

    Posted Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 1:02 am | Permalink

    Honestly, at what stage do people start looking at what the problem is? Something is going very very wrong for Labor, and consistently for a year. The public are sending a clear message that they do not like what they see.
    ]

    Why aren’t you, Evan and Shows out their campaigning for Abbott – He IS your man.

  12. [Something is going very very wrong for Labor, and consistently for a year. The public are sending a clear message that they do not like what they see.]
    What! How could you say such a thing! Frank has explained PERFECTLY that Labor is fine, the problem is with the biased media; they are to blame for EVERYTHING.

  13. [ShowsOn

    Posted Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 1:02 am | Permalink

    pity so-called ALP supporters chose to rubbish it.

    The speech is drivel, it is a mish-mash of platitudes and motherhood statements combined with an unworkable anti-uranium mining policy stunt that W.A. Labor obviously plagiarised from the Greens.
    ]

    Awww There There little boy:-)
    Well me and Gweneth like it,

    Enjoy your man Abbott – he’s in front now
    🙂

  14. Going off the front page headlines, it looks like Reith’s savage attack on Abbott and the fight from Phillip Morris over the plain packaging legislation (which is an international issue focused on Australia) is overshadowing the result of the relatively status quo Newspoll.

    On the preferred PM rating, expect to see greater media scrutiny placed on Abbott.

  15. [ShowsOn

    Posted Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 1:05 am | Permalink

    Something is going very very wrong for Labor, and consistently for a year. The public are sending a clear message that they do not like what they see.

    What! How could you say such a thing! Frank has explained PERFECTLY that Labor is fine, the problem is with the biased media; they are to blame for EVERYTHING.
    ]

    well Of Course 🙂

  16. Frank
    [Well me and Gweneth like it,]
    This proves it is drivel.
    [Enjoy your man Abbott – he’s in front now]
    Thanks to your help

  17. [spur212

    Posted Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 1:06 am | Permalink

    Going off the front page headlines, it looks like Reith’s savage attack on Abbott and the fight from Phillip Morris over the plain packaging legislation (which is an international issue focused on Australia) is overshadowing the result of the relatively status quo Newspoll.

    On the preferred PM rating, expect to see greater media scrutiny placed on Abbott.
    ]

    Precisely.

    We have reached Peak Abbott.

  18. Shanahan wrong as others have observed:

    [Only Paul Keating has had a worse personal rating than Gillard’s today, and that was as he headed towards an election loss. ]

    Depends how you measure it, but:

    * If measured by netsat there have been 18 worse results. One by Howard in 2001, one by Hawke in 1991 and the other sixteen by Keating, but six of Keating’s were before the election that he won. This is also true if measured by disapproval rating.

    * If measured by approval rating there have been 19 worse results. One by Hawke and eighteen by Keating with eight of Keating’s before the election that he won.

  19. [SpaceKidette Space Kidette
    Abbott lead the result of systemic media manipulation for an outcome. Congratulations on the media for flexing their muscle. #mediafail
    ]

    [SpaceKidette Space Kidette
    There has not been one word about Hockey wanting to turf 12,000 public servants. #mediafail
    ]

  20. [My first job would be to create the Ministry for Administrative Affairs…no more Pink Batts after that ]

    Ah, yes Glen, more Liberal Party talking points

  21. Has anyone pointed out that 12,000 less public servants make delivering electricity cost saving insulation and once in a lifetime investments in schools that much harder and that much more fraught with risk?

    The libs might have no problem with this because they do very little investment in any sort of program let alone important and fantastically successful programs like the insulation program and the once in a lifetime investment in crucial school infrastructure.

    They also have no problem with ‘cost overruns’ because when it happens on their watch it is a deliberate injection of funds, so long as those injections only go to the already wealthy, and not into normal homes or into infrastructure we all can use.

    Finally I’m sick of reading the same bald faced lies about the GST and the market based carbon scheme. Saying absolute complete rubbish over and over again doesn’t make it right it just shows a lot about you.

    Regardless of the reality ignoring claims of the GST’s glorious win – the reality is that a market based mechanism to price carbon was taken to one election by both parties, and a second election by a party led by someone who has told less lies in her entire political career than Abbott tells most days before lunchtime. As a weathervane clearly he has to shift position and lie more on windy days (opinion wise) but that can’t be his fault can it?

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