Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition

The latest result from Roy Morgan combines its last two weekends of face-to-face polling from a sample of 1776, and finds the Labor primary vote recovering slightly to 35 per cent (up 1.5 per cent on the weekend of June 4-5), the Coalition steady on 46.5 per cent and the Greens down half a point to 11.5 per cent. On the two-party preferred measure that allocates preferences as per the result of the previous election (my favourite), the Coalition’s lead has gone from 54-46 to 53.5-46.5; it’s down more substantially on the respondent-allocated measure favoured by Morgan (lately), from 56.5-43.5 to 54.5-45.5.

Now it’s time for PB Chart of the Week, a feature that may or may not live up to its name over the long term. With Labor polling disastrously in every jurisdiction, I thought it might be instructive to plot the party’s federal and state voting performance since the inception of Newspoll in late 1985 (I’ve started at the beginning of 1986 for the sake of neatness). The chart below shows combined quarterly measures for Labor’s two-party vote, both federally (which is quite straightforward) and at state level (a population-weighted result with the larger states accounting for proportionally greater shares of the result, and Tasmania excluded because Newspoll doesn’t do them regularly).

What we see is that the party’s federal and state fortunes do seem to be quite closely related. While Labor was travelling better at federal than state level from 1986 to 1990 and again since 2008, they tended to move up and down (actually just down more recently) in tandem within those periods. However, this may be because the respondents for Newspoll’s federal and state surveys are usually the same people. The two lines sat very closely together throughout the 1990s, but decoupled as Labor achieved state-level dominance in the Howard years. The impression more recently is of the federal line chasing the tail of the states, although recent form suggests the downward federal trend wouldn’t have bottomed out yet.

If the results don’t quite bear out talk of Labor being in record-breaking dire straits at present – at least to the extent that they do not appear in a worse position than in the twilight of the Keating years – it should be noted that the picture would look worse for them if I was using the primary vote rather than two-party preferred.

UPDATE (27/6/11): Essential Research: 55-45 (steady). Coalition 48% (+1), Labor 32% (-1), Greens 11% (-1). “If Kevin Rudd was Labor leader”, 45 per cent say they would vote Labor against 42 per cent for the Coalition, with Labor leading 53-47 on two-party. Similarly, the Coalition leads 59-41 if Malcolm Turnbull was leader. In both cases I suggest you have to account for mischief-making by supporters of the other party.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,934 thoughts on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5 to Coalition”

  1. Centre

    It appears this moribund website omits one of the glorious laborites from today’s news perhaps I shall awaken the sleeping galahs..

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/currawong-sale-watkins-admits-inappropriate-and-dishonest-actions-20110627-1gmpv.html

    Then again dishonesty is not part of the “fair go” is it fellow baffoons….vote labor and you ensure union property is sold to the state at bargain prices!!! Perhaps Telstra and Optus should bid, given Conroy’s recent cash splash on that “innovative NBN” they may help increase the kitty……………

  2. bemused – we haven’t seen the PPM yet but newspoll hasn’t deteroriated after a woeful ‘anniversary’ week.

    Katherine Murphy, a journo not usually kind to Labor, wrote in complimentary terms about the PM today and mentioned her stillness under such great pressure last week, especially Thursday in Parliament.

    She didn’t get much encouragement from her backbench while the Oppn was absolutely pulling her down. Bishop asked that awful question and yet the PM did not wilt in answering questions. She’s got more guts than a lot of nervous nellies in the Party.

    What a rotten job she had thrown at her. There was no knifing. She took one for the Caucus as they saw it , wrongly or rightly, at the time. Sp I’m going to be working harder than I did for Kev in 07. If there is a challenge to her I will have to think about it.

  3. When people are celebrating Labor lagging behind by 10 points, and these are Labor supporters…….I know I’ve entered the strange parallel Poll Bludger universe. 😆

  4. [Ric Nixon

    Posted Monday, June 27, 2011 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    Centre

    It appears this moribund website omits one of the glorious laborites from today’s news perhaps I shall awaken the sleeping galahs..

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/currawong-sale-watkins-admits-inappropriate-and-dishonest-actions-20110627-1gmpv.html

    Then again dishonesty is not part of the “fair go” is it fellow baffoons….vote labor and you ensure union property is sold to the state at bargain prices!!! Perhaps Telstra and Optus should bid, given Conroy’s recent cash splash on that “innovative NBN” they may help increase the kitty……………
    ]

    sorry,

    2GB’s Blog is the third on the Right .

  5. [3856

    evan14

    Posted Monday, June 27, 2011 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    When people are celebrating Labor lagging behind by 10 points, and these are Labor supporters…….I know I’ve entered the strange parallel Poll Bludger universe.
    ]
    But it’s the peak for your man Abbott.

    BTW Did you feed KFC Joe too much Hot & Spicy – his performance on Q&A was woeful.

  6. [2GB’s Blog is the third on the Right]

    And don’t let the virtual door hit you on the head… sorry, arse, on the way out

  7. Ric Nixon @ 3853

    What’s your point?

    Are you seriously expecting someone to leap to the defence of what is allegedly crooked dealings? Try the Fibs, they have more form.

  8. Guess what Ric Nixon? I voted for Barry O’Farrell in the state election.

    Do you think it is acceptable that Abbott can a) deliver tax cuts b) subsidise polluters c) honour election promises and d) bring the budget back to surplus 1 year before Labor,

    without treasury costing their policies???

    Abbott and his Liberal Party have DEGENERATED into a disgrace!

    You must be proud!

    I will stick to moving forward. Moving forward with the NBN, a carbon tax with it’s assiciated compensation package, a mining tax with industry support, adequate funding for health, investment in productivity with infrastructure, avoiding a recession and a budget surplus in 2013.

    Mate, bring your Liberal mates with you on this site.

    Anyday!

    Bring it on!!!

  9. [Shineybum
    Posted Monday, June 27, 2011 at 11:10 pm | Permalink

    Sacking public servants is actually quite an expensive exercise and not the money saver Sloppy would have us think.

    In 1996, The Rodent got rid of 16,000 of my colleagues in the Commonwealth Employment Service, 450 CES offices throughout metro and regional Australia. And nobody turned a hair!

    The CES, of course, was replaced by Job Network, which not only costs the taxpayer more, but provides a diminished service to the unemployed, while creating a few millionaires like Therese Rein. This was overseen by Vanstone/Abbott.

    Anyway, within a few years, Howard’s public service was bigger than ever, and was at record levels on that joyous day in 2007 when he got the arse. Since Labor got in, the public service has been gradually decreasing in size.]

    A pretty fair summary, Shineybum. Albeit the missing link is David Kemp. Kemp was Shadow Employment leading up to the 96 election. With Howard trying to run with the idea that he’d do nothing other than replace Keating, Kemp went on the record that he’d keep the Department, its staff and labor market programs.

    This, of course, was a lie (Hello Glen, so Julia’s not the only one). In the first week of cabinet they discussed how they’d dismantle it. Howard was a bit worried about being accountable for breaking promises – so he put Vanstone in charge, and hid Kemp in Education. That way, Combover could not be accused of lying.

    Kemp, always the driving force behind the privatisation idea, such as it was, eventually took over in 98 after Vanstone had done all the nasty bits.

    He made a complete botch of it (the Job Network was a hare-brained idea to start with) and was creating storms not just in government and jobseeker circles but amongst small business as well. There were real concerns that the backlash against the Job Network could cost it government.

    Abbott was given the task of cleaning up the mess. To give him his due, he did actually rescue it from the shit it was in by giving most of the business to community-owned groups and charities. And it sort of worked, especially compared with the Kemp fiasco.

    But it wasn’t a patch on the CES in my opinion, even though the CES had its faults. Local specialist labour market knowledge was completely trashed.

  10. The point is, you don’t just ‘sack’ public servants: you have to pay them off with redundancy packages and then re-employ them, at greater expense, as private contractors, ‘cos the work that they do actually enables the government to function.

    Sure, a lot of government functions can be, and have been, outsourced to the private sector, but as everybody knows, the private sector will rip the taxpayer off at every opportunity and the government needs its own people to oversee the expenditure of public monies.

    So the savings incurred from ‘sacking’ public servants aren’t real. It’s all creative accounting rubbish, which the libs drag up every now and then as a ‘palatable and painless’ saving measures.

    If any real savings are to be made, then they lie in the abolition of the programs and services that those public servants earmarked for redundancy oversee and deliver. It’s these programs and services that Sloppy should be telling us about, not just how many public servants he’s gonna axe.

  11. Point to anybody celebrating you clown, Evan.

    Finally decided to play a Liberal hey, instead making comments a year ago being immaterial.

    You phoney, hang around I’m going to do you nice and slowly.

  12. [re you seriously expecting someone to leap to the defence of what is allegedly crooked dealings? Try the Fibs, they have more form.]

    Didn’t we see something in the Canberra Times today about the ACT Liberal Party illegally dishing out Federal Govt. stimulus money to party volunteers?!

    Didn’t Michael Yabsley say yesterday that if the ASIC took a look at Federal Liberal Party books there could be a few problems?

  13. Yeah, you’re right Gorgeous Dunny. And they’ve kept Job Network afloat by continually throwing more money at it. Year in, year out. Whenever the ‘provider’s cry poor.

  14. [rishane

    Posted Monday, June 27, 2011 at 11:54 pm | Permalink

    Preferred PM
    Abbott 41
    Gillard 39

    Well there’s the media story for the next week.
    ]

    there is no mention on the Oz website – nort from Poss.

    Me thinks Evban has pulled it out of his Arrrrrrk.

  15. The paralell universe at Crikey is working overtime tonight. Left leaning panelists so damn great the eighties woeful. Great performance by Labor in parliament getting up 150 add pieces of legislation. Left side smarter in every way every day, week month if you actually believed the partisan claptrap peddled daily and especially from the loud voices from WA. Polls trending completely the other way. Oh yeah the long game . That’s what loser football coaches say just before the get sacked.
    You reckon the Libs have peaked . I do not think so because part from the fact that only true believers actually listen to Julia any more we get to watch the Greens Labor coalition from this week. Now that the Greens will have their “magic pudding” (Crikey phraseology) economics scrutinized by the MSM , academics, shock jocks and all it’s going to be real fun watching JG get blamed for her looney coalition partners.
    Lee Rhianon will be

  16. [stanny

    Posted Monday, June 27, 2011 at 11:57 pm | Permalink

    The paralell universe at Crikey is working overtime tonight. Left leaning panelists so damn great the eighties woeful. Great performance by Labor in parliament getting up 150 add pieces of legislation. Left side smarter in every way every day, week month if you actually believed the partisan claptrap peddled daily and especially from the loud voices from WA. Polls trending completely the other way. Oh yeah the long game . That’s what loser football coaches say just before the get sacked.
    You reckon the Libs have peaked . I do not think so because part from the fact that only true believers actually listen to Julia any more we get to watch the Greens Labor coalition from this week. Now that the Greens will have their “magic pudding” (Crikey phraseology) economics scrutinized by the MSM , academics, shock jocks and all it’s going to be real fun watching JG get blamed for her looney coalition partners.
    Lee Rhianon will be
    ]

    My 3857 also applies to you.

    Happy to help 🙂

  17. Hey Evan,

    Is Abbott still going to rescind the mining tax after a) voters have received their compensation, b) business has made projections and future investments based on carbonprice certainty???

    Do you still believe in action on tackling climate change?

    Go bury your head in the sand, you should be ashamed of yourself 🙂

  18. [Dan Gulberry
    Posted Monday, June 27, 2011 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    BigBob (again) 😆

    They might beleive that PubServs are “bludgers” but when they suddenly find these bludgers stop coming into their shops, and they find themselves having to retrench staff and start looking down the barrels of recievership and bankruptcy, the penny will finally start to drop]

    Just to go on with that point, in the mid-90s, Kennett’s slash and burn had led to almost not staff in the old Dept of Labor. In addition there were no awards, even though most small country businesses and farms were happy with them and liked to abide by them in drawing up employment agreements. There were no staff they could contact, only a 1 800 number on which they’d be waiting forever.

    In despair they’d come to us in the Commonwealth for help and we were only marginally better, having to contact Canberra.

    No savings to speak of, but an effective way of pissing off some of your constituency.

  19. [there is no mention on the Oz website – nort from Poss.

    Me thinks Evban has pulled it out of his Arrrrrrk.]

    Oh, phew! 😛

    I do think 3854 raises a very good point though–What makes it even worse is that she takes one ‘for the Caucus’, but then still gets widely blasted by the media as a supposed backstabber, in part because she didn’t go in detail on the problems with Rudd’s government and Rudd didn’t bother with a leadership ballot. (As I think I said in another post, they’re working hard to give Australia its own ‘stab in the back myth’) And people forget that Rudd irritated her by being paranoid about her even while she was professing loyalty.

  20. I heard it on Tony Delroy’s radio program on the ABC – his newspaper headlines segment.
    Warning you that the MSM will run hard with it tomorrow.

  21. Pure Gold
    Watch for the polls to hit 60 for the Libs this year.
    I guess Labor primary votes these days of 32 per cent is regarded by you all as good!
    Oh and my favorite hypocrisy on PB this week is the late night homophobes you have here nicely referring to radio types purported sexuality at the same time as calling for gay marriage CLASSIC and totally typical (you know who you are)

  22. [3878

    stanny

    Posted Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    Pure Gold
    Watch for the polls to hit 60 for the Libs this year.
    I guess Labor primary votes these days of 32 per cent is regarded by you all as good!
    Oh and my favorite hypocrisy on PB this week is the late night homophobes you have here nicely referring to radio types purported sexuality at the same time as calling for gay marriage CLASSIC and totally typical (you know who you are)
    ]

    Dream on.

    This is PEAK Abbott.

    Sucker

  23. @STANNY/3877,

    Those that bark louder tend to bite themselves more often.

    GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 45 (0) L/NP 55 (0) #auspol
    47 minutes ago

    GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 30 (-1) L/NP 46 (0) GRN 11 (0)

    Not going anywhere atm.

  24. [evan14
    Posted Monday, June 27, 2011 at 11:40 pm | Permalink

    When people are celebrating Labor lagging behind by 10 points, and these are Labor supporters…….I know I’ve entered the strange parallel Poll Bludger universe. 😆 ]

    The celebration is that the world hasn’t ended yet even though the pollsters and the MSM have been forecasting it for some time. Besides a movement of 5 points over time is not great.

    And, unless something dramatic happens, it is well over two years before an election is due. Time is our friend.

  25. [3877

    evan14

    Posted Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 12:03 am | Permalink

    I heard it on Tony Delroy’s radio program on the ABC – his newspaper headlines segment.
    Warning you that the MSM will run hard with it tomorrow.
    ]

    so what – Berazley was ahead of Howard in 2001 and Latham in 2004.

    And your Man Howard still won.

  26. [3880

    zoidlord

    Posted Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 12:06 am | Permalink

    @STANNY/3877,

    Those that bark louder tend to bite themselves more often.

    GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 45 (0) L/NP 55 (0) #auspol
    47 minutes ago

    GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 30 (-1) L/NP 46 (0) GRN 11 (0)

    Not going anywhere atm.
    ]

    Yep – We have reached peak abbott 🙂

  27. Got news for you Evan, you are going to love this pal!

    I have it on good authority that the longer Abbott leads in the polls, the greater the chance of Monkey staying as leader. That’s going to spell big, big trouble for the Liberals.

    Turnbull is not going to hang around. He is going to pour all the crap on Abbott’s climate change and NBN policies they deserve. 🙂

  28. What a great idea Australia! Let’s prefer a man to be Prime Minister that has no vision, no ideas, no policies and is the most negative, destructive force in politics that we’ve ever had.

    Brilliant!

    Like Gorgeous Dunny said, time is on Julia’s side. She needs to throw away the script and keep at it. It’ll turn around.

  29. Liberals playing the long game, or is it the wrong game? Does not matter if you lose elections as long as your hero is ahead in the opinion polls with two years to go.

  30. Another thing; Abbott, Turnbull, Bishop, Robb and Hockeyl utterly detest each other!

    Not good for a party filled with so much real hate among themselves to run a country. The longer Abbott leads in the polls, the more the hate, jealousy and ambition will set in. 😀

  31. [Dr Good

    Posted Tuesday, June 28, 2011 at 12:14 am | Permalink

    Liberals playing the long game, or is it the wrong game? Does not matter if you lose elections as long as your hero is ahead in the opinion polls with two years to go.
    ]

    Put it this weay – Howard dispatched 3 Opposition leaders with bad polling figres like the ALP have at the moment 🙂

  32. [Ric Nixon
    Posted Monday, June 27, 2011 at 11:34 pm | Permalink

    Centre

    It appears this moribund website omits one of the glorious laborites from today’s news perhaps I shall awaken the sleeping galahs..

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/currawong-sale-watkins-admits-inappropriate-and-dishonest-actions-20110627-1gmpv.html

    Then again dishonesty is not part of the “fair go” is it fellow baffoons….vote labor and you ensure union property is sold to the state at bargain prices!!! ]

    Topical name, Ricky. If you’re a regular poster or lurker here you’d have noticed that Jaundiced View denounced this stuff ages ago. You won’t find a single poster that disagreed with him. And why should they? Corruption and crooked dealing should be exposed wherever it occurs. What does your side do?

    Maybe if you’re so interested in all that you could have a look at where the IPA gets all its money from. I’d take guess that the Koch Bros are providing some if Bob Carter is now on their staff, and we already know about Big Tobacco. And how do so many IPA propagandists end up on ABC panels and forums and posting articles in The Drum?

  33. Interesting article (and not a bad read) about bilateral investment agreements and the way US companies use them against sovereign states. Phillip Morris is going to use the Hong Kong-Australia agreement in its war against plain-packaging tobacco.

    A few case studies mentioned.

    Looks like the only leg we have to stand on is the ‘health’ angle.

    http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q=cache:5Ep7jifjjngJ:www.twnside.org.sg/title2/resurgence/182-183/Cover04.doc+action+under+bilateral+investment+treaties+case+studies&hl=en&gl=au&pid=bl&srcid=ADGEESifhjuBZ_yVdoNzIALh9tz6ekj1XK4PF7i3tNtI8lS2pgHfeLf9jX3kV4-1gSMEu825uo1laMG5bXd7lSMLDTqHCIeBoiETPby38xVS3sFNo1Kbf_aq3pX4P1k3zonFXndZoNvz&sig=AHIEtbRIUz0PpUX6TcYZmxk1lynse_vUwQ

    sorry about the size of the link – still haven’t learned the bit thingy.

  34. Sack public servants. Effects:

    1. Lower expenditure through wages
    2. Increase unemployment
    3. Increase unemployment benefits
    4. Decrease service to us
    5. Lower house prices

  35. Stanny

    [ Oh yeah the long game . That’s what loser football coaches say just before the get sacked.]

    We’ve been hearing that from Neil Craig. Please let that mean he will be sacked.

  36. The headline in the Australian states, “…now the most unpopular modern prime minister since Paul Keating at his worst”. According to Newspoll’s own website this is not the case. On March 9-11 2001 John Howard had figures of 28-64 2 points worse than Gillard in this poll.

  37. And here comes the crap:

    [simontmorganSimon Morgan

    Gillard’s net approval is minus 34. Abbott is ahead as preferred PM. @KRuddMP seen running for the first plane home. #newspoll

    4 minutes agoFavoriteReply]

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