Bernard Keane at Crikey reports the latest Essential Research poll has the Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred widening from 53-47 last week to 54-46. It also records a slump in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings, with approval down seven from a month ago to 34 per cent and disapproval up six to 54 per cent. Tony Abbott has also gone backwards: down four on approval to 38 per cent and up four on disapproval to 48 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 43-35 to 41-36. Otherwise:
The view that climate change is real and human-caused has softened since May. Just 50% of voters believe it is happening and is caused by humans, while 39% believe climate change is just a normal fluctuation in the climate; those figures were 52-36% in May, but 45-36% in December. Liberal voters are much more likely to not believe in human-caused climate change — 55% of them think it is purely natural and only 34% think human cause it, while 83% of Green voters and 64% of Labor voters think it is caused by humans. Of those who believe climate change is caused by humans, 48% are “somewhat confident” it can be averted if we take action now, and 13% are very confident, but 36% are only a little or not at all confident we can stop it even if we act now. Support for the government’s proposal to price carbon remains flat, with support unchanged at 38% and opposition up 1 point at 49%. Awareness of the government’s proposal to send asylum seekers to Malaysia is relatively high, with 27% of voters saying they know a lot about it and 31% saying they know “something about” it, while 38% say they know little or nothing about it. Feelings are finely balanced, with 40% saying they support it and 39% opposing it. Greens voters object most strongly (51%) and Labor voters are its strongest supporters (47%).
I should have the full report for you shortly.
UPDATE: Full report here. There is in fact no change at all on the primary vote figures: Coalition 46 per cent, Labor 34 per cent, Greens 12 per cent.
[One hears this a lot, but if it’s so, why did oppositions enjoy huge opinion poll spikes when Kevin Rudd, Mark Latham, John Howard and Alexander Downer assumed the leadership? The governments of the time hadn’t been doing anything differently.]
Excellent point William. Not just a pretty face.
Yellow for Robb and Prissy
If the polls are consistently like the current trend 2 weeks before the election, I will start to worry. Not before then. The Govt just needs to hold its nerve; govern; continue to put in place good and progressive policy. And stay with Gillard. The sword of Damocles often brings out the best in people and I think this is the difference between Rudd and Gillard – I think Rudd panicked, whereas Gillard seems emboldened; and it often jolted Howard into action. Ironic that the absence of the sword of Damocles (and hubris), namely the Senate majority was instrumental in his undoing.
Pain for Pyne.
There are only two comforts that Labor can take from this poll:
(1) Ms Gillard is still ahead as PPM.
(2) It still over two years until the election.
IMHO, they are cold comforts. My preference would be for hot comforts.
Dovif 72,
Agree its not the scintillating and creative policies of the libs or the dynamic personality of the LOTO that has them leading the polls but the continual 24/7 bagging by all media across the board that keeps the ALP and the PM from getting an leverage in the polls.
I can not remember when the ALP or the PM received any continuing positive coverage on any topic.
It is always counched in negative terms and denigrated by the media….by the way same tactic used successfully by the republicans in the US with the same results.
Opposition question on today’s ‘The Australian’ headline must be in the pipeline.
and yes the pm mentioned kackatoo, i seem to rememer the polls very bad for hawke then with the silly talk about then.
[My preference would be for hot comforts.]
BW, it’s cold and the rain is pelting down in Bradfield. My preference would be for hot cocoa.
[why did oppositions enjoy huge opinion poll spikes when Kevin Rudd, Mark Latham, John Howard and Alexander Downer assumed the leadership? ]
Downer? My god.
[come on bernard what about the margin of errorr]
I wrote that, not Bernard. The Essential Research two-party figure was 53-47 last week and 54-46 this week. I’m not sure how you can argue with the contention that the latter is wider than the former.
Dear Mr Abbott has a coal mine ever been closed in Australia in the past?
[Lynchpin
Abbott will never dismantle a carbon tax. He would be a populist PM; a policy bum, doing just enough each term to get re-elected and maintain the status quo. Same as Howard.
I agree!
Said as much a few weeks back. Rabbott will let the ALP wear all the pain of selling & implementing a price on carbon & any negatives will be worn by the ALP.
Rabbott & Co. will have a billion reasons why it cannot be repealed.]
Maybe so. But he can’t go to the election saying that. He has to say that he will repeal the CT and in the process explain how he will go about it (whether he intends to do so or not). Either way it’s not a good look.
[The governments of the time hadn’t been doing anything differently]
this i feel is the crux of the matter, some people cannot stand change.
how many people do you know that have lived in the same house for 40 odd years.
i know a few, and oh and i had laugh about it the other night the ones we know actully vote liberal
My Say
[dee in this time in the polical cycle re howard he was always about up to 10 points behind, some one even posted it one day]
Perhaps I’m just being a nervous nellie.
You little clown, Pyne!
[I’m just being a nervous nellie]
stop it
Yellow for Smith
I see Pyne is running QT
I agree that the Carbon Tax will not be able to be removed. It will be harder than unscambling the GST as many people will have to lose direct identifiable compensation amounting to hundreds of dollars.
Abbott is so tied to getting rid of the CT that he will have to go before the election.
This will be a massive shock to the loyal band of denialists who cheer Abott. The Liberal party will be lucky to survive.
This is all coming up over the coming 18 months.
Fun times ahead.
Darn, I agree. But the position he has boxed himself into is more for the consumption of his party room (to shore up his leadership) as it is for anything else. Also fits the narrative that everything this Govt does is BAD. Agree, it is not a good look. But given media scrutiny, I am unconvinced it will amount to much, even in a campaign.
Its pointless comparing Howard with the PM.
Howard never had to deal with a media welded to the other side.
Whenever Howard needed a lift he could depened on his good friend Alan or the Murdochracy to either support him or give him a slap with a wet lettuce leaf…never the mindless negativity of todays feral media.
The PM has a much higher mountain to climb and the media is making sure all the slopes are well greased.
Saw ‘Sunshine and Oranges’ this morning. We believe we know one of main characters in the movie and have some of his art on our walls.
I got the old catholic boarder shiver up the spine, but the movie is far broader than just that. It has spew cam extraorindaire for some scenes; Bindoon is in manifestly the wrong geographic location; and some of the sound values are blurred, as is the visual focus in some of the scenes.
What the movie does is, quite simply, allow the truth to see the light of day.
IMHO, anyone at all wanting to shunt unaccompanied kids anywhere o/s should be forced to watch it.
As for the rest of us, we should go and watch it if we want to talk about child asylum seeker policy in an informed way.
dee i am always nervous i would love to see us in front all the time, but if we where would we be in two and half years., so lets hope abbott wears himself out, i just wish they would stop introducing us i mean controversial things like the mining tax i like to forget that one till at least after the next election.
start doing a bit of howardism and give some stuff, well the compensation for the pollution tax, may be a start, but then concentrate on health education ect. and infrustructure.
forget the nasties for a while
[SpaceKidette Space Kidette
@JulieBishopMP If the coalition shut up and stopped POOing all over the place we might be able to hear what the Treasurers response is. #qt
]
William
I agree to some extent, I believe there is a curiousity factor in new leaders, and they also get rid of the baggage of the old leaders, but come election time, I believe it is the government that normally loses elections (unless the opposition leader was Latham or Hewson)
Both keating and howard lost because of their baggage and it is time factor, while rudd/Gillard almost lost because of percieved shortcomings, which was I believed confirmed when Gillard said they were so bad, they need to change leaders
George
[I’m just being a nervous nellie
stop it]
OH has already given me a lecture.
Reckons it is all BS & to shut my whinging up! 😀
Jen’s petition now 20th, on the first page!
http://suggest.getup.org.au/forums/60819-campaign-ideas/suggestions/1684971-petition-for-abc-to-return-to-its-charter
Is there some sort of significant discrepancy between the latest Galaxy and Essential Polls on the issue of asylum seekers?
I disremember.
[PM has a much higher mountain to climb and the media is making sure all the slopes are well greased]
yes Arunta, and i dont remember a first term pm who has had to deal with so much, floods, hurricanes, the media, abbott, and overseas problems re our trade , japan and NZ and no the global warming.
howard dealt with nothing, the gun law s where the only thing, and that was forced on him by what happened.
[Abbott is so tied to getting rid of the CT that he will have to go before the election.
This will be a massive shock to the loyal band of denialists who cheer Abott. The Liberal party will be lucky to survive.
This is all coming up over the coming 18 months.
Fun times ahead.]
Dr Good
I admire your optimism and would love to believe you are right. But I suspect if Abbott goes it will be Turnbull who takes over – and if that happens I think the Libs will probably win.
I’d be happy to hear your alternative theory on that.
Mr Howard introduced the GST, one of the most important tax reforms of our generation.
[OH has already given me a lecture.
Reckons it is all BS & to shut my whinging up!]
which bit is whinging, my oh says that we call it worry.
so dont talk about how i feel very much as i am alwasy to negative, ( so he says) but some times when he is i commiserate
In case nobody’s noticed, Essential’s primary vote figures are exactly the same as last time: Coalition 46 per cent, Labor 34 per cent, Greens 12 per cent. So it’s all down to rounding.
i thought he may ask for a caraboo to take tasmanina home.
i am surprised he hasnt
yes william i did notice that re my remark about the wording from crickey.
alp and greens make 46 thats how i like to look at it.
after all what is the breakdown between the nationals and the lib
[Abbott is so tied to getting rid of the CT that he will have to go before the election.
This will be a massive shock to the loyal band of denialists who cheer Abott. The Liberal party will be lucky to survive.]
yes i think the shock joks will be in shock big time, what will they say looks it only a short time away really when it gets through the senate.
It must be boat time soon.
My Say
[which bit is whinging, my oh says that we call it worry.
so dont talk about how i feel very much as i am alwasy to negative, ( so he says) but some times when he is i commiserate]
I looked at PBer & turned to OH and said, “Oh S&*t”.
Once again, ever the voice of reason when it comes to politics OH said not to get too taken in by these polls & not to get overly emotional about it.
Mind you, OH gets extremely emotional everytime Rabbott’s face flashes up on the TV.
Julia taunting Abbott with FACTS!
Give us this day our daily rant?
From a commenter at Mumble:
[I was an undergrad with environmental concerns, regular leftie utopian nutcase with no clues. So I joined the Greens.
Having a mate who was a ‘mover and shaker’ in the party, I somehow found myself on the VIC State Executive Committee, despite having never once lifted a finger for the party!
In one meeting we were voting on who would take the essentially pointless 4th spot on the VIC senate ticket. The choice was between a hard working male with a decade of party service who had run in council elections and a female who had popular support in the commitee.
The comittee members decided that ‘gender balance’ was teh determining factor (there were already 2 male candidates on the ballot).
However my patron and I refused to vote that way, thinking that the hard working male had done more to earn it. So we prepared to vote in the minority, but because the Greens always want ‘concensus’, we were bullied and villified for about an hour! And so the matter passed by unanimous vote, no matter what nasty stuff they needed to do behind the scenes to achieve their illusion of harmony.
Soon afterward I let my membership lapse.]
I throw it in for debate.
is he tweeting during QT?
JOEHOCKEY | 3 minutes ago
Maybe JG would have met the Dalai Lama if he pretended to be a plumber in favor of a carbon tax!
[i just wish they would stop introducing us i mean controversial things like the mining tax i like to forget that one till at least after the next election.]
My say
If properly sold the mining tax should not be a nasty. The mining industry’s profits have soared over the past twelve months and are in stark contrast to the price rise pressure the average punter is under at the moment (something Abbott likes to cry crocodile tears over) It should be child’s play to convince them that they are entitled to a share of those obscene profits.
Darn i agree that If Turnbull can be installed in time and the Liberals manage to stay together and support both the CT and the NBN then they could win.
(supporting the NBN will be increasingly important to winning an increasing number of electorates in regional areas)
However I think that Abbott and Denialist supporters have unleashed quite a fierce monster in terms of a rabidly vocal denialist movement in the population and sections of the media. It is hard to see the Liberals just quietly doing a U turn in the face of yhat lot and getting away with it .
Tone: “Hit me!”
Julia is starting to get wound up on the subject of Nauru.
[SpaceKidette Space Kidette
Tony’s pretend jaunt to Nauru as pretend PM to gain a pretend agreement. Nauru is an expensive stunt paid for by vested interests. #qt
]
#JOEHOCKEY But why would he do that? it makes no sense Joe