Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at Crikey reports the latest Essential Research poll has the Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred widening from 53-47 last week to 54-46. It also records a slump in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings, with approval down seven from a month ago to 34 per cent and disapproval up six to 54 per cent. Tony Abbott has also gone backwards: down four on approval to 38 per cent and up four on disapproval to 48 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 43-35 to 41-36. Otherwise:

The view that climate change is real and human-caused has softened since May. Just 50% of voters believe it is happening and is caused by humans, while 39% believe climate change is just a normal fluctuation in the climate; those figures were 52-36% in May, but 45-36% in December. Liberal voters are much more likely to not believe in human-caused climate change — 55% of them think it is purely natural and only 34% think human cause it, while 83% of Green voters and 64% of Labor voters think it is caused by humans. Of those who believe climate change is caused by humans, 48% are “somewhat confident” it can be averted if we take action now, and 13% are very confident, but 36% are only a little or not at all confident we can stop it even if we act now. Support for the government’s proposal to price carbon remains flat, with support unchanged at 38% and opposition up 1 point at 49%. Awareness of the government’s proposal to send asylum seekers to Malaysia is relatively high, with 27% of voters saying they know a lot about it and 31% saying they know “something about” it, while 38% say they know little or nothing about it. Feelings are finely balanced, with 40% saying they support it and 39% opposing it. Greens voters object most strongly (51%) and Labor voters are its strongest supporters (47%).

I should have the full report for you shortly.

UPDATE: Full report here. There is in fact no change at all on the primary vote figures: Coalition 46 per cent, Labor 34 per cent, Greens 12 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

926 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. [I find it staggering that 4 out of 10 people polled believe they know more about climate science than a thousand or more qualified scientists. STOP THE ARROGANCE!]

    The pernicious influence of stroke talk back hate radio.

  2. Applause in the Senate gallery during the opening question (to Ludwig). A contingent of cattle producers I imagine. There could be disruptions.

  4. [I think they’ll resume listening when Tone starts telling them he is going to rip the compensation off them. That will be a hard sell.]

    And if that doesn’t get their attention they’ll be screaming like stuck pigs when PM Abbott starts hitting them with the new improved Work Choices – as he certainly will if he gets the chance. Either way, trust me, they are going to listen and they’re not going to like what they’re hearing.

  5. [Someone might know this without having to do too much research, but it strikes me as unusual that a party with a sustained lead like the Coalition has had for the last 4 or 5 months has a leader who has never been preferred PM. I seem to recall both Beazley and Latham were preferred PM when ALP lead on 2PP.

    William, is this unusual?]

    Latham never led Howard (at least not in Newspoll), though Beazley did during the Coalition’s weakest moments (late 1997/98, early 2001). Beazley was somewhat more popular than Abbott and Howard somewhat less popular than Gillard when Beazley was ahead in 2001; in 1997/98, Howard was maybe a little less popular than Gillard and Beazley substantially more popular than Abbott. Both times Labor’s 2PP lead was roughly what the Coalition’s is now.

  6. Darn

    Abbott will never dismantle a carbon tax. He would be a populist PM; a policy bum, doing just enough each term to get re-elected and maintain the status quo. Same as Howard.

  9. Darn,

    If JG goes so far as to adopt the Tax reform recommendations Garnaut recommended, there is no hope Tone will be voted in if he repeals the CT and its associated compensation.

    The chances of his going to the next election campaign saying he will repeal it, in my opinion, is nil.

  11. Space Kidette,

    [It doesn’t help when Tony is one of the 4 and helps spread the lies on CT.]

    Right-wing stroke back radio amplifies his propaganda across the country 24/7. Boy, does that ‘industry’ need balancing!

  15. If there were reasonable fluctuations in the polls I wouldn’t be too concerned.
    But that is not happening. The polls are too stable in the Coalitions favour.
    Is it any wonder that the Rabbott told his senior ministers to ping off when they suggested the party should stand for something.
    Why would he talk about policy when policy is obviously not important to the punter & the Rabbott is so far ahead?

  16. [SpaceKidette Space Kidette
    When is Tony going to stop pretending he is the PM? It makes him look like a try hard tosser. #qt
    ]

  17. Darn,

    [And if that doesn’t get their attention they’ll be screaming like stuck pigs when PM Abbott starts hitting them with the new improved Work Choices – as he certainly will if he gets the chance. Either way, trust me, they are going to listen and they’re not going to like what they’re hearing.]

    Exactly. The public has a short political memory, plus is kept in the dark by the media. But they will listen, one way or another.

  19. The Prime Minister In Waiting wants the Prime Minister to consult with him on a bipartisan basis cf restarting the live cattle trade.

    In other words, the Coalition does not know which way to jump on the live cattle trade.

  22. Dr Good 4

    Actually all of the Liberals popularity is directly tied to the unpopularity of the ALP and Gillard in particular.

    For example, even if the Carbon tax is up and running at the next election and we are all using Solar or nuclear power and holding our breaths, and we are all $100k wealthier, whenever the Carbon tax comes up, it will just be associated with Julia’s lies. Since that is the first thing people talk about when the carbon tax is brought up.

    It is government that loses elections, and the popularity of the Liberals nationalwide atm, is directly linked to how bad the strench emitting from the ALP is around the nation.

  23. [If there were reasonable fluctuations in the polls I wouldn’t be too concerned.
    But that is not happening. The polls are too stable in the Coalitions favour.
    Is it any wonder that the Rabbott told his senior ministers]

    dee in this time in the polical cycle re howard he was always about up to 10 points behind, some one even posted it one day

  24. [re the “the new improved Work Choices” . The resurrection of the “buried and cremated” Work Choices would seem to be going on as we speak. This certainly explains the reappearence of the Reith.]
    Reith – “The Disinterrer”

  27. [The Prime Minister In Waiting wants the Prime Minister to consult with him on a bipartisan basis cf restarting the live cattle trade.]

    I’d have two words for him if I were the PM….

  29. [Was Mr Lama wearing a full length dress?]
    Yes, and his parliamentary consort, Peter Slipper, was wearing a fetching white scarf.

  31. Everyone being shockingly reasonable on the live cattle trade. Both sides want it re-started as soon as humanly possible… errr… as soon as humanely possible.

  32. [SpaceKidette Space Kidette
    Shorter PM response: Bugger off, Tony. I’m the PM & I’ve got it sorted. #qt
    ]

  33. [Thanks William. So if Abbott actually eclipses Gillard as preferred PM that would be unusual?]

    It is certainly unusual for the Opposition Leader to lead the Prime Minister, but not by any means unprecedented. Rudd, Howard and Hewson all had leads over Howard, Keating and Keating for extended periods.

  34. Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    The question must be asked if the #DalaiLama is a religious leader or a political leader or both #auspol
    31 seconds ago

  38. my say 73

    I believe Howard was 10 points behind in the polls a few month after the introduction of the GST, because bribes aside, people are paying ,ore at the checkouts, at the petrol pumps and in electricity and people wee not happy

    Gillard isn’t there yet

  44. [It is government that loses elections]

    One hears this a lot, but if it’s so, why did oppositions enjoy huge opinion poll spikes when Kevin Rudd, Mark Latham, John Howard and Alexander Downer assumed the leadership? The governments of the time hadn’t been doing anything differently.

  46. [two-party preferred widening ]

    come on bernard what about the margin of errorr

    still know why dont have sub at crickey two points, when first saw the wording
    i thought gosh.

  48. Lynchpin
    [Abbott will never dismantle a carbon tax. He would be a populist PM; a policy bum, doing just enough each term to get re-elected and maintain the status quo. Same as Howard.]
    I agree!
    Said as much a few weeks back. Rabbott will let the ALP wear all the pain of selling & implementing a price on carbon & any negatives will be worn by the ALP.
    Rabbott & Co. will have a billion reasons why it cannot be repealed.

  49. Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    Come-on Mr. Speaker, stop muttering, just kick them out #qt #auspol
    16 seconds ago

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