Bernard Keane at Crikey reports the latest Essential Research poll has the Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred widening from 53-47 last week to 54-46. It also records a slump in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings, with approval down seven from a month ago to 34 per cent and disapproval up six to 54 per cent. Tony Abbott has also gone backwards: down four on approval to 38 per cent and up four on disapproval to 48 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 43-35 to 41-36. Otherwise:
The view that climate change is real and human-caused has softened since May. Just 50% of voters believe it is happening and is caused by humans, while 39% believe climate change is just a normal fluctuation in the climate; those figures were 52-36% in May, but 45-36% in December. Liberal voters are much more likely to not believe in human-caused climate change — 55% of them think it is purely natural and only 34% think human cause it, while 83% of Green voters and 64% of Labor voters think it is caused by humans. Of those who believe climate change is caused by humans, 48% are “somewhat confident” it can be averted if we take action now, and 13% are very confident, but 36% are only a little or not at all confident we can stop it even if we act now. Support for the government’s proposal to price carbon remains flat, with support unchanged at 38% and opposition up 1 point at 49%. Awareness of the government’s proposal to send asylum seekers to Malaysia is relatively high, with 27% of voters saying they know a lot about it and 31% saying they know “something about” it, while 38% say they know little or nothing about it. Feelings are finely balanced, with 40% saying they support it and 39% opposing it. Greens voters object most strongly (51%) and Labor voters are its strongest supporters (47%).
I should have the full report for you shortly.
UPDATE: Full report here. There is in fact no change at all on the primary vote figures: Coalition 46 per cent, Labor 34 per cent, Greens 12 per cent.
slip sliding away….
Any movement is MOE, its not slip sliding away at all.
When you have both leaders going backwards on satisfaction the respondents are saying a pox on both.
The big problem for the Liberals is to have their current rather underwhelming popularity tied so closely to a climate denialist line. This must be heading to the biggest crash since Kevin ’10.
i’d say the falls in nearly all the categories suggests something.
if ALP are to turn th ecorner they better hurry up and find the corner!
While I understand that political participation is cyclical, I do believe the ALP is facing a major problem in attracting young members.
When I volunteered at the last Federal Election, I remember most of the members / other volunteers being 50+ with the only young people being their kids in most circumstances.
The Greens are doing a better job at attracting progressive, idealistic young people.
Another trend I’m seeing is that more young people than ever before are becoming conservatives early in life, rather than morphing into Conservatives when they get a mortgage / kids / SUV / become miners
Just a theory 😛
mm
What corner do you suggest?
lets hope so Dr Good.
[i’d say the falls in nearly all the categories suggests something.
if ALP are to turn th ecorner they better hurry up and find the corner!]
So a 1% drop in a poll or a 1% gain is real movement is it? Ever heard of MOE? The polls are pretty stable ATM. Why a turn around has to happen now is beyond me. Plenty of time.
Today’s MPI:
[“The need for a proven, more cost effective and more humane solution to address illegal arrivals to Australia” proposed by Mr Morrison (Cook)]
Stupid Gillam – “The PM has resorted to releasing fact sheets about global warming”.
Much more appropriate than hollow, ignorant scares I would think.
3180 MsAdventure
Posted Tuesday, June 14, 2011 at 1:20 pm | Permalink
[Thanks GD but what I was after was an email form that a question could be asked re the Govt’s Carbon Tax etc and then sent off for an answer. It may have been a Govt or ALP site.]
This may be what you are looking for MsAdventure:
http://climatechangeaction.org.au/myth-busters/myths/
the proverbial one Vic.
[Any movement is MOE, its not slip sliding away at all.]
Gary, could you please take your statistical dark arts elsewhere, we don’t need common sense here thanks 😉
Charlton at 3104 previous thread
Vince Bruce had a major problem. He could not write judgments which, for a judge, is unfortunate.
you win champ!
Fancy that, producing *facts* is now regarded as *resorting* ??
Re Mike Carlton on TV, I think David Marr would be much better judging from his time on Mediawatch. Carlton has the celebrity “look at me bug” which goes crap on TV.
[Stupid Gillam – “The PM has resorted to releasing fact sheets about global warming”.
Much more appropriate than hollow, ignorant scares I would think.]
Geez BK, how do you argue with that? resorted to releasing facts??? – will she not think of the flat earthers!!!??
Full Essential Research report here.
“resorting to releasing facts”…. Skynews is an intellectual waste land.
dave, snap!
george
The bimbo floored me!
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
#Essential Preferred PM: Gillard 41% Abbott 36 The punters still cant see Abbott as PM for all his huffs & puffs, must hurt #auspol
22 minutes ago
Geez, when a government resorts to getting the facts out the world is in a mess.
of course I know what MOE is. its the continuing trend that is the worry.
[of course I know what MOE is. its the continuing trend that is the worry.]
The continuing trend is not down but sideways unlike what you were saying.
Gillam is a Lib shill today.
Temperatures going up several notches in Greece –
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/greek-parliament-preparing-evacuation-tunnel-ahead-wednesday-vote-imf-bailout-general-strike
June 15 is a Full Moon as well.
its good to see the govt trying a new tactic with the press. that is making sure facts are published… as in releasing full transcripts of interviews and the use a fact sheet. as well as getting full assessment by productivity commission. its a good strategy against a lazy and at times intentionally biased media.
The Bimbo simply picks up where Hendo left off:
[In other words, the Productivity Commission was asked to examine real and planned carbon abatement in Australia with respect to some of its major trading partners. It received no mandate to compare Australia with its competitors in the energy export industry – including Canada, Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia and Russia]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/a-time-for-australias-consolidation-not-isolation-on-carbon-emissisons-20110613-1g0g3.html#ixzz1PDapIHDl
Bimbo dont think.
Keep those facts coming thick and fast Julia!
Gary i see a sidewyas trend with the gap this size as a real concern. i’m fearful that the longer it exists the more chance there is of it becoming entrenched and voters do teh classic “stop listening”.
Ahh Misfit thank you, exactly what I was looking for. I will bookmark it straight away and also post on the other forum.
btw ‘sidewyas’ has a patent pending.
Pegasus @ 3132 (previous thread):
Although the Greens will have the balance of power in the Senate post 30 June, the status quo may not be maintained for too long.
Consider this scenario:
Marginal Labor MHR dies. A by-election is held. Coalition wins. Abbott now has 73 seats; with Crooke and Katter, 75. Abbott becomes PM. Senate fails to pass important bill. Three months elapse. The House passes the bill again but the Senate again rejects it. Abbott goes to GG seeking a double dissolution election. GG grants DD election. All senators are then up for re-election. Possible result following a polarising of the electorate: Coalition wins the House and gains control of the Senate by winning four or five seats – and given the current poll trend this result is not out of the question.
What I’m suggesting is that, yes, the Greens will have the balance of power but they will need to exercise it with more than a modicum of caution and refrain from making ambit calls, like that of Senator Milne’s for a $40 price on carbon or Senator-elect Rhiannon’s radical anti-Israel stance.
Resorting to facts is indeed a very low blow. Very unfair to poor Tony who has spent so much effort developing entirely fact free positions. Stop The Facts
England and Wales have had one of the driest springs on record.
http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/drought/default.aspx
[Gary i see a sidewyas trend with the gap this size as a real concern. i’m fearful that the longer it exists the more chance there is of it becoming entrenched and voters do teh classic “stop listening”.]
This is my concern too, I have to say.
[shellbell
Posted Tuesday, June 14, 2011 at 1:32 pm | Permalink
Charlton at 3104 previous thread
Vince Bruce had a major problem. He could not write judgments which, for a judge, is unfortunate.]
I share his pain. I had the same problem writing essays.
I find it staggering that 4 out of 10 people polled believe they know more about climate science than a thousand or more qualified scientists. STOP THE ARROGANCE!
In case you missed it early this morning have a look at this classic cartoon from Alan Moir in today’s SMH.
http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
Someone might know this without having to do too much research, but it strikes me as unusual that a party with a sustained lead like the Coalition has had for the last 4 or 5 months has a leader who has never been preferred PM. I seem to recall both Beazley and Latham were preferred PM when ALP lead on 2PP.
William, is this unusual?
Dr Good
.
They have hadall sorts of wierd weather and not just them.
.
“Drought zones have been declared across much of England and Wales, yet Scotland has just registered its wettest-ever May. The warmest British spring in 100 years followed one of the coldest UK winters in 300 years. June in London has been colder than March. February was warm enough to strip on Snowdon, but last Saturday it snowed there”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/13/extreme-weather-flooding-droughts-fires
Middle Man RE #41
The likes of Andrew Dolt have a lot to answer for. Its thier politicising of Climate Change and spreading mis-information that has led to this type of ignorant arrogance.
[it strikes me as unusual that a party with a sustained lead like the Coalition has had for the last 4 or 5 months has a leader who has never been preferred PM]
Lynchpin, nothing unusual. we all know more 50% of female voters dont like Abbott.
middle man and confessions
[This is my concern too, I have to say.]
Add me as well! If you look at the Essential Poll on Climate Change posted earlier then it may suggest that Climate Change may not be the great saviour either.
[Gary i see a sidewyas trend with the gap this size as a real concern. i’m fearful that the longer it exists the more chance there is of it becoming entrenched and voters do teh classic “stop listening”.]
MM – I think they’ll resume listening when Tone starts telling them he is going to rip the compensation off them. That will be a hard sell.
[SpaceKidette Space Kidette
Roll up, roll up, roll up. Come to see the amazing Question Timeshow! Watch a RAbbott pulled out of his hat & the Hockey fat lady sing! #qt
]
True Darn. and i guess that wont really stand out until the carbon abatement legislation is passed. until then is hypothetical. but once the compo is announced and Tone says I’m going to take it away then it might bite.
as an aside i was watching a doco on SBS last night about the GFC and risk etc. Pschologists have found that “money” stimulates the same ancient parts of our brains that are stimulated by food and sex. very base emotions. Tone might trigger some of that primal emotion.