Morgan phone poll: 58-42 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has published a phone poll of 742 respondents (margin of error 3.5 per cent) conducted over the past three nights which shows the Coalition with a highly improbable two-party lead of 58-42 – the worst result ever recorded by the present government by a very wide margin. On the respondent-allocated measure of preferences, which Morgan uses for its headline figure, it’s 59-41. The primary votes are 50 per cent for the Coalition, 30 per cent for Labor and 9.5 per cent for the Greens. While the figures are a bit hard to believe, all the other questions posed in the poll have produced fairly typical responses: 32 per cent believe global warming concerns to be exaggerated against 50 per cent who want immediate action; 37 per cent support and 53 per cent oppose the government’s carbon tax; support and opposition for Tony Abbott’s policy of overturning the tax in government are both at 45 per cent.

I must confess myself a little puzzled by further questions raised by Morgan, in particular: “Australia is only responsible for about 1% of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions. Are you aware of this or not?” This sounds an awful lot more like an attempt to disseminate propaganda than to meaningfully measure public opinion. Nor do I understand what value there is in asking the man on the Clapham omnibus how high he expects sea levels to rise over the next century. Results to these questions and one or two others can be found at the above link, if you’re really that interested.

Of rather more value than this poll is the latest Possum’s Pollytrend chart, which shows the two-party situation reaching an equilibrium of 54-46 since mid-April.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,627 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. victoria:

    [SMirabellaMP Sophie Mirabella
    If Greg Combet bought a seaside mansion, surely he couldn’t have been too worried about rising sea levels.
    26 minutes ago]

  4. Pegasus

    [Mr Tripodi opposed a resolution for tighter controls over party membership, resulting in removal of the resolution.]

    They never give up!

  7. [BernardKeane | 16 minutes ago
    lol @SMirabellaMP is the Woodward and Bernstein of #mansiongate]

    At least Bernard Keane gives Sophie the response she deserves!

  8. [JOE TRIPODI is out of Parliament but not out of power. The former Labor MP for Fairfield is a member of the party’s crucial rules committee and is blocking attempts to reform the party.

    At a meeting of the rules committee on May 25, Mr Tripodi opposed a motion from the party’s rank and file calling for measures to prevent branch stacking. About 150 resolutions calling for reform have been put to the committee, which vets them for consideration by NSW Labor’s annual conference. The committee meets next month.

    Mr Tripodi opposed a resolution for tighter controls over party membership, resulting in removal of the resolution.]
    How big is this C’ttee? Does Joe command more than one vote?

  9. By the way, many thanks to all bludgers who post the selected tweets. I can’t get much sense out of Twitter and don’t want to spend my life reading aimless drivel.

  13. Oh dear!
    Talk about desperate for negative talking points.
    [amworldtodaypm ABC Radio
    TWT:Calls for PM to distance herself from claims by a leading labor market economist that job losses caused by a #carbontax would be trivial
    10 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply]

  15. [The desperation is getting so ridiculous. I am starting to really get annoyed]
    And will become more so as July 1 comes and goes.

  19. Sophie is always banging on about the Australian textiles industry.

    Hope no one catches her out wearing materials made in China!

    (Sophie undiegate?)

  22. [joneschris79 Christopher Jones
    @TurnbullMalcolm – terrible article, lacking facts and full of ill-informed assumptions. Please don’t spread this stuff.]

    [TurnbullMalcolm Malcolm Turnbull
    @joneschris79 well it’s 4000 words on the front of the NYT. Why don’t you write a detailed refutation of the article exposing it’s flaws?
    2 hours ago]

    MT continues to speak about global warming. They are discussing this article which he tweeted:
    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/05/science/earth/05harvest.html?_r=1

  23. [Do you really feel that it will settle down after 1 July]
    The government just needs to plough on with its program. Get everything in place. That’s how they will win the arguments.

  24. Gary

    You may not understand a lot about the way committee members are elected within the ALP. You may want to do a bit of research on the matter.

    For mine Joe needs not only singled out he needs to be booted out!

  27. [Sophie is always banging on about the Australian textiles industry.

    What Australian Textile Industry?]
    RM Williams still make jeans and trousers in Adelaide. Shirts and polo shirts made overseas. They also continue to do well with locally made boots.
    As for the rest?

  28. [You may not understand a lot about the way committee members are elected within the ALP. You may want to do a bit of research on the matter.]
    To be honest I’m really not that interested in the inner workings of the NSW ALP. BOF will eventually do them all a favour and become very unpopular over time. Then the ALP will find a new cohesion very quickly. Sad but we all true.

  29. [RM Williams still make jeans and trousers in Adelaide. Shirts and polo shirts made overseas. They also continue to do well with locally made boots.
    As for the rest?]

    That’s my point BK, it’s practically non-existent.

  30. I don’t think Sophie writes her own tweets. For a start her tweets are always on weekdays, never weekends, and she never replies to anyone or engages in any discussion. Tone’s twitter is the same. But MT OTOH tweets on weekends, at night, and engages in discussion with others. He clearly writes his own tweets.

  32. Gary

    [To be honest I’m really not that interested in the inner workings of the NSW ALP]

    Then why the question?

  33. It shows you how tight Labor has been when you have Melissa Parke’s comments being quoted time and again and seen as a split.

  36. [Gary

    To be honest I’m really not that interested in the inner workings of the NSW ALP

    Then why the question?]
    I was commenting on the article and quoted here and it struck me how they onlt mentioned Joe as being responsible for stopping reforms. He’s part of a c’ttee of people.

  37. [Gary

    I assume the coverage is not what we would like?]
    Er, no. Let’s just say they’re not putting up the arguments William has made about the poll.

  39. victoria

    I feel that SH-Y is liable to cut off her nose to spite her face on any matter. She is the Green equivalent of the Abbott NO robot.

  42. Gary

    A Labor return in NSW will take longer if it is reliant on BOF and no change by ALP.

    John Robertson has done a video which appears on the NSW ALP site about the IRC legislation.

    Interesting for what it does not say – that the ALP will reinstate powers of IRC to determine wages.

  43. Victoria
    [The Greens know that the opportunity to price carbon is now. Will they allow it to fall over?]
    I believe Bob Brown now sees the necessity to compromise, however, Sarah Hanson Young & Milne have an all or nothing approach.
    There could be trouble ahead for Bob Brown.

  45. Dee

    I think I disagree with you over Christine Milne. She has made several comments which I took to mean she understood the value of some compromise.
    SH-Y is a loose cannon, IMHO.

  46. Dee:

    Wait until Lee Rhiannon joins them. She’s already given Brown a slap in the face over the Marrickville Council bans on Israel. Brown will have his work cut out with her.

  47. [I believe Bob Brown now sees the necessity to compromise, however, Sarah Hanson Young & Milne have an all or nothing approach.
    There could be trouble ahead for Bob Brown.]
    Bob will get it done this time, I reckon. The smart elements of the Greens know that even the unfair perception that they have shot this down twice would be very dangerous for their future and would confirm that view in many people’s minds that they will never be anything more than a fringe party.

  48. Victoria
    [If the Greens do not compromise this time. A price will not happen]
    Bob has stated that he is willing to compromise to get something in place.
    His colleagues, mmmm…not so sure about!

  49. Just to break in on the speculation and personal opinions re The Greens 😉

    Re unaccompanied minors seeking asylum.

    To those pushing the line about “irresponsible parents” or “send these children back to their parents” (assuming they are still alive)…

    1. Unicef: http://www.unicef.org.au/Discover/Blog/January-2010/Afghan-asylum-seekers-to-be-forcibly-returned-home.aspx
    [Last year was the most violent in Afghanistan, and most victims of the increased violence were civilians, particularly women and children, with UN projections that the humanitarian situation is likely to worsen in 2011. Last week the Asylum Seeker Resource Centre tweeted that the number of refugees Australia had by boat in 2010, Pakistan received in 36 hours.

    In Afghanistan today one in five children die before reaching their fifth birthday – mostly from easily preventable diseases like diarrhoea and pneumonia – five million children are still out of school, over three million of whom are girls, and only six percent of children are registered at birth, leaving the great majority without a legal identity, protected and cared for by law.]
    2. Public statement: Grave concerns over Australia’s MOU with Afghanistan signed by 71 institutional endorsees, including many church groups and Labor for Refugees (Victoria and NSW)
    http://www.erc.org.au/index.php?module=pagemaster&PAGE_user_op=view_page&PAGE_id=126
    [Afghanistan is a country mired in decades of civil war and ethnic unrest that has resulted in thousands of deaths over 30 years. It is not safe. There are no indications that the violence and security threats are reducing. 2010 has seen the highest number of civilian casualties since the latest war began in 2001. A recent background briefing on Afghanistan from the office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees includes a report from aid agencies titled Afghanistan: humanitarian situation likely to worsen in 2011.

    Over the past eight years the Edmund Rice Centre’s research into Australia’s deportations has found that returning asylum-seekers to Afghanistan has produced direct and fatal consequences: for the returned asylum-seekers, or for their immediate family members. Many others have suffered threats and attacks, and today live with the well-founded fear of the very persecution they sought to escape.

    Many Afghan asylum-seekers in Australia are members of the Hazara ethnic minority – objects of discrimination and persecution in Afghanistan for decades. There is no reason to believe that the ethnic and sectarian factors, fuelling hostility towards them, have dissipated.]
    3. UNHCR
    http://www.unhcr.org/4dbec6686.html
    [The UN refugee agency and the Belgian government are increasingly alarmed at the rising number of unaccompanied children seeking asylum in the Western European country and at how young many of them are.

    It’s not clear why the figures have risen so much and the reasons why parents send their children away on their own are complex. For some Afghan families, sending one child ahead is like putting down an anchor in Europe. But others worry about the lack of education opportunities at home while many are genuinely scared for their children because of the fragile security situation in parts of Afghanistan and the risk of forced military recruitment.]

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