Morgan phone poll: 58-42 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has published a phone poll of 742 respondents (margin of error 3.5 per cent) conducted over the past three nights which shows the Coalition with a highly improbable two-party lead of 58-42 – the worst result ever recorded by the present government by a very wide margin. On the respondent-allocated measure of preferences, which Morgan uses for its headline figure, it’s 59-41. The primary votes are 50 per cent for the Coalition, 30 per cent for Labor and 9.5 per cent for the Greens. While the figures are a bit hard to believe, all the other questions posed in the poll have produced fairly typical responses: 32 per cent believe global warming concerns to be exaggerated against 50 per cent who want immediate action; 37 per cent support and 53 per cent oppose the government’s carbon tax; support and opposition for Tony Abbott’s policy of overturning the tax in government are both at 45 per cent.

I must confess myself a little puzzled by further questions raised by Morgan, in particular: “Australia is only responsible for about 1% of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions. Are you aware of this or not?” This sounds an awful lot more like an attempt to disseminate propaganda than to meaningfully measure public opinion. Nor do I understand what value there is in asking the man on the Clapham omnibus how high he expects sea levels to rise over the next century. Results to these questions and one or two others can be found at the above link, if you’re really that interested.

Of rather more value than this poll is the latest Possum’s Pollytrend chart, which shows the two-party situation reaching an equilibrium of 54-46 since mid-April.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,627 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 58-42 to Coalition”

Comments Page 1 of 53
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  1. Morgan makes his money out of mining ( Haoma). His polling activity is for commercial clients. He’s happy to push poll for the Libs on any topic they name.

  2. The NZ PM in Canberra 20 June. There’ll be a formal lunch followed, at 2:30, by an address to a joint sitting of the Parliament.

  3. [I must confess myself a little puzzled by further questions raised by Morgan]

    Maybe Gary is trying to promote a political agenda? But hey he did sack his entire paid phone polling workforce a few years back. Maybe he outsourced this poll to the Liberal Party?

  4. [ruawake

    Posted Friday, June 3, 2011 at 4:37 pm | Permalink

    Shhh Frank

    Fred Daly also opposed Whitlam over the removal of the White Australia Policy. Don’t tell jv.
    ]

    Gees What a progressive JV helped re-elect in 1972 🙂

  5. He can’t just ignore a major poll because of some questionable results.

    That’s why we’re here! To pick it apart.

  6. [i am quite disgusted william you would put this up so]

    my say its a poll, this site is poll bludger, what do you want william to do ignore it?

  7. William,

    I am sitting here shaking my head, not because I don’t think there is no value in polls, provided there is some semblence of credibility in the questions but the questions on these polls are starting to get a bit shaky.

    I am interested to hear your take on the validity of this one as a useful indicator of anything at all.

  8. [i am quite disgusted william you would put this up so]

    It’s a Morgan Phone Poll. He always posts them.

    If he started cherry picking them, he’d be disgusting other people. Instead he just reports them as they are and lets you infer your own meaning and validity from them.

  9. [10

    Space Kidette

    Posted Friday, June 3, 2011 at 4:48 pm | Permalink

    William,

    I am sitting here shaking my head, not because I don’t think there is no value in polls, provided there is some semblence of credibility in the questions but the questions on these polls are starting to get a bit shaky.

    I am interested to hear your take on the validity of this one as a useful indicator of anything at all.
    ]

    Morgan’s Phone Polls have become like Paterson’s – who do the Westpoll – A Friggen and utter joke.

  10. William, the poll says
    [887 Australians aged 14+ including 742 electors]
    Does this mean the results include all 887, just the 742 electors, or are they picking and choosing.

  11. [Dr Phibes

    Posted Friday, June 3, 2011 at 4:49 pm | Permalink

    William, the poll says

    887 Australians aged 14+ including 742 electors

    Does this mean the results include all 887, just the 742 electors, or are they picking and choosing.
    ]

    now Morgan is polling 14 yrs olds – who is he phoning – the Yr 9’s to 12’s at The Kings School, Scotch College, MLC, PLC and St Hildas ?

  12. Can anybody tell me if today is Alice in Wonderland Day ? After recovering from hearing Abbott and Morrison claiming to have “found religion” when it comes to asylum seekers human rights I just heard Eric Abetz giving the thumbs up to the $20 pw increase in the minimum wage.

  13. It’s a bit too easy to paint brush all ABC output as some mouthpiece of the OO.

    Geoff Hutchinson this morning on Perth ABC morning radio – “The Australian hates the ABC!” I had to take a double take on this as usually GH is so bland.

    This was in reference to his counterpart in Sydney reviewing “Angry Boys” (ABC-TV) and the Oz claiming that the “ABC was navel gazing.”

    The progressive side of politics, while recognising that there are plenty of enemies out there in media land to the progressive message, really have to keep two eyes open rather than one.

    And I agree about the Morgan poll. It’s odd, but there you are. Based on 700 plus responses goodness only knows what the MFO would be. So wide, one would think, to make the figures all but useless to anyone.

  14. William is being consistent by publishing this Poll (which I applaud). Unless he has genuine evidence that it has been gamed then it sits there for every one to see. It’s Morgan’s reputation that will be trashed if he’s up to shenanigans. His business revolves around the the accurate reproduction of polling information. If he’s prepared to risk his business on an ideological jaunt, then it’s his bankruptcy.

    It could be a rogue. However, it is pretty obvious from William’s comments that he does not give it much credibility.

  15. Note the link I’ve just added to Possum’s latest Pollytrend chart – not sure if it’s been mentioned. This poll should not divert us from the conclusion that things are presently at 54-46 unless we get corroboration elsewhere.

    [I am interested to hear your take on the validity of this one as a useful indicator of anything at all.]

    The first thing Morgan did was ask about voting intention, so I wouldn’t have thought their weird line of querying on climate change could have contaminated the result. The first few questions on the carbon tax were also pretty orthodox, and produced fairly normal results.

  16. If you’re old enough to answer a poll about politics you’re old enough to vote.

    If you’re polling 14-year olds about politics …

  17. [18

    confessions

    Posted Friday, June 3, 2011 at 4:56 pm | Permalink

    Why include 14yos
    ]

    He’s desperate to astroturf thev results from the Liberals – rremember these 14-18 yr olds were born when Howard was PM – join the dots 🙂

  18. One of the factors that I found “interesting” was the use of Gillard’s and Abbott’s names in the questions. Gillard “owned” the sea rise question.

    I think it’s worth re-posting this survey of 3000 people.

    [The study by Queensland’s Griffith University surveyed more than 3,000 Australians across the country and found 74 per cent believe the world’s climate is changing and 90 per cent believe human activities are playing a role.
    The research found less than 6 per cent of Australians are true climate change sceptics.
    Griffith University Professor Joseph Reser says the results show public opinion has been greatly misrepresented in the media.
    “An accurate reading of what the science is, and an accurate reading of where the public is at, are really both very, very important,” he said.
    The study also found more than half of respondents believe they are already experiencing the effects of climate change and around two thirds have strong concerns about it.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/06/03/3234342.htm?section=justin

  19. So 8% of the sample cannot vote, the moe is 3.5%.

    So in my best Cerdic Conan voice, this is really a 53-47 poll in favour of Labor. 😆

  20. [This poll should not divert us from the conclusion that things are presently at 54-46 unless we get corroboration elsewhere.]
    That’s fair comment.

  21. [Does this mean the results include all 887, just the 742 electors, or are they picking and choosing.]

    My guess would be that the sample of 887 included 145 who weren’t “electors”, whether because they were aged 14-17 or for whatever other reason (non-citizens for instance). We are told throughout that published responses refer to what “electors” thought, so it’s not clear to me what value there is in letting us know that a further 145 were also questioned for no good reason I can see. Nonetheless, that’s what they’ve done.

  22. If of the 145 non electors polled, even half were between 14 and 18, roughly 9%, and were the victims of push polling, leading to a skewing of the child’s opinion in the coalition’s direction, and if the other non electors were non citizens who would have little understanding and be therefore more suseptible to push polling,another 9%, and if push polling affected even 2% of real electors, and taking account the 3.5% margin of error, why did William set up a thread about horse shit?

  23. [27

    ruawake

    Posted Friday, June 3, 2011 at 4:59 pm | Permalink

    So 8% of the sample cannot vote, the moe is 3.5%.

    So in my best Cerdic Conan voice, this is really a 53-47 poll in favour of Labor.
    ]

    The Nnext Morgan F2F will include polling taken outside Kindergartens by operastives handing out lollies 🙂

    This is the first time in my living memory that a political poll inccluded respondants who legally cannot vote, or in fact cannot do anything without parental approval.

    PS Rua – Batphone 🙂

  24. Frank,

    ” or in fact cannot do anything without parental approval”.

    Do you have teenage children?

  25. [My guess would be that the sample of 887 included 145 who weren’t “electors”, whether because they were aged 14-17 or for whatever other reason (non-citizens for instance).]

    Why bother, other pollsters just say goodbye.

  26. [34

    Greensborough Growler

    Posted Friday, June 3, 2011 at 5:04 pm | Permalink

    Frank,

    ” or in fact cannot do anything without parental approval”.

    Do you have teenage children?
    ]
    No,

    But I’m referring to the fact that legally “Children” underr 16 cannot partake in legal horizontal folk dancing – take out a contract etc.

  27. [If of the 145 non electors polled, even half were between 14 and 18, roughly 9%, and were the victims of push polling, leading to a skewing of the child’s opinion in the coalition’s direction, and if the other non electors were non citizens who would have little understanding and be therefore more suseptible to push polling,another 9%, and if push polling affected even 2% of real electors, and taking account the 3.5% margin of error, why did William set up a thread about horse shit?]

    Like I said, the non-electors aren’t included in the results, and the sequence in which the questions were asked means the “push-polling” cannot have had the effect you impute.

  28. [So in my best Cerdic Conan voice, this is really a 53-47 poll in favour of Labor]

    Yes, that’s what he sounded like. I’d almost forgotten. The resemblance is uncanny.

  29. [38

    William Bowe

    Posted Friday, June 3, 2011 at 5:06 pm | Permalink

    If of the 145 non electors polled, even half were between 14 and 18, roughly 9%, and were the victims of push polling, leading to a skewing of the child’s opinion in the coalition’s direction, and if the other non electors were non citizens who would have little understanding and be therefore more suseptible to push polling,another 9%, and if push polling affected even 2% of real electors, and taking account the 3.5% margin of error, why did William set up a thread about horse shit?

    Like I said, the non-electors aren’t included in the results, and the sequence in which the questions were asked means the “push-polling” cannot have had the effect you impute.
    ]
    But why mention them ?

    Morgan has done his reputation no favours by pointing it out.

  30. 54:46 is diabolically bad – and I know it is early in the term and it will all get magically better before then – I don’t quite understand why. I have a feeling it is connected with the gfc and the end to mindlessly expanding debt funded comsumer spending and baby boomers insecurity as they get near to retirement – but if I’m wrong why is it so bad now? I don’t quite understand how those issues would lead you to a Abbott / Hockey leadership team. I’m a brain dead partisan I guess I can’t see anything would lead to preferring Abbott / Hockey. I’d understand better if it were turnbull / hockey but it isn’t.

  31. [The research found less than 6 per cent of Australians are true climate change sceptics.]

    For a measly 6 percent, they sure do make a hell of lot of noise!

  32. [Grassy knoll says Oz government leaked the documents “revealed” on LateLine last night.]

    Has the ABC made the leaked documents available for us dweebs to view or do we trust them on the contents?

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