Morgan phone poll: 58-42 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has published a phone poll of 742 respondents (margin of error 3.5 per cent) conducted over the past three nights which shows the Coalition with a highly improbable two-party lead of 58-42 – the worst result ever recorded by the present government by a very wide margin. On the respondent-allocated measure of preferences, which Morgan uses for its headline figure, it’s 59-41. The primary votes are 50 per cent for the Coalition, 30 per cent for Labor and 9.5 per cent for the Greens. While the figures are a bit hard to believe, all the other questions posed in the poll have produced fairly typical responses: 32 per cent believe global warming concerns to be exaggerated against 50 per cent who want immediate action; 37 per cent support and 53 per cent oppose the government’s carbon tax; support and opposition for Tony Abbott’s policy of overturning the tax in government are both at 45 per cent.

I must confess myself a little puzzled by further questions raised by Morgan, in particular: “Australia is only responsible for about 1% of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions. Are you aware of this or not?” This sounds an awful lot more like an attempt to disseminate propaganda than to meaningfully measure public opinion. Nor do I understand what value there is in asking the man on the Clapham omnibus how high he expects sea levels to rise over the next century. Results to these questions and one or two others can be found at the above link, if you’re really that interested.

Of rather more value than this poll is the latest Possum’s Pollytrend chart, which shows the two-party situation reaching an equilibrium of 54-46 since mid-April.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,627 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. vp,

    wasn’t trying anything. just saw it this morning and was seeking views on whether people thought it could be an issue.

    clearly it sounds bad, but appears to not be an issue.

  2. As I recall, Craig Thompson improved his margin in Dobell at the last election, as did Deb O’Neill in the neighbouring Robertson – Abbott was apparently livid at the relatively poor performance of the Libs in NSW marginal seats like the two I just mentioned, Eden Monaro, Page, Lindsay etc.

  4. vic, the problem could be inappropriate use of union funds. if you were working for a public company and did it they’d probably call in the cops.

  6. IMO, he has dropped the claim purely for political expediency.
    Could you imagine the case being played out during an election year?
    Plus, you need deep pockets to fight these cases.

  12. Dee

    I agree that just because he dropped the defamation case it certainly doesn’t follow that he did anything wRONg. It just means he was advised he would probably lose the case.

  14. mtbw

    If he used money inapprorpriately and not paid it back, it would be an issue. I cannot imagine he would still owe the union this money. I stand to be corrected

  15. mtbw:

    [He does he is the Member for Charlton in the Hunter Valley region but he and Mellissa Clarke are in a relationship.]

    Is this the same Melissa Clarke who people here say is a Liberal?

  16. vp

    Abbott was on the 11.00 am ABC news saying that he does not believe in a blanket ban on live exports. Not sure what alternative he is proposing

  21. 2495 – it isn’t necessarily a crime, but if I would very much doubt you’re meant to use your employer-provided gold card to pay for hookers.

    It would be a matter for the union I imagine, as his employer. Not a good look though, but then again I wouldn’t know when the card use is meant to have taken place.

  23. [It just means he was advised he would probably lose the case.]
    Or go bankrupt fighting to prove your case.
    The law is not always about right & wrong. At times it is about stamina & how deep your pockets are.
    If the police don’t think it warrants their attention then one does get suspicious about the motives.

  24. Ross Peake in The Canberra Times is a must miss. They are now publishing his opinion pieces as news
    [Julia Gillard will visit Alice Springs’ notorious town camps tomorrow as her Government defends its handling of welfare restrictions begun by the Howard government.

    She will come under pressure to accelerate moves to improve appalling living standards in remote Aboriginal communities.]

  30. The Craig Thompson issue is, in fact, a non issue long dead and buried.

    The matter was investigated by the union and others ages ago and no charges were laid or even considered. That in itself should tell us that there is nothing here to be dragged up.

  31. vp:

    Thanks of the clarification! Gee, that’d be a hell of a rumour to start. 😉

    I don’t follow people’s private lives, so really don’t know who is married to whom, apart from what I read here.

  32. bemused @ 1993:

    Re: Nichols’ Thesis

    Neither have I, but his thesis is pretty clear from the extract you provided.

    ruawake @ 1998:

    Yes, Frank Calabrese is right: ignore ‘bogans’ at your peril.

    mytwobobsworth @ 2062:

    Re: Left-wing intelligentsia

    Thanks.

    Bushfire Bill @ 2148:

    Re: ‘Bogan’ Rellies & Sense of Humour

    Very funny & my psych. told me not to take myself too seriously.

    shellbell @ 2232:

    Re: Sydney Magistrate

    Emails to O’Farrell & Robertson being drafted.

    mytwobobsworth @ 2464:

    Re. Member for Charlton

    I’ve always thought Combet is a class act.

  33. I am amazed constantly here how assumptions are made on policy and other issues with little or no evidence or fact.

    Now people are assuming Mr Emerson is guilty because he decided not to go on with legal action.

    Perhaps he decided that the cost was just not worth it, perhaps some legal aspect has made the challenge too difficult. I have no idea but no one else here does as well.

  34. What is it with Fremantle girls? Hungry for power?

    Federally, Freo is represented by Melissa Parke, who is in a relationship with a Federal Minister. At a state level, Freo’s representative is Adele Carles, nominally a Green, who is Liberal state Transport Minister Troy Buswell’s partner.

    At least Parke and Combet are in the same party.

  35. [vic, the problem could be inappropriate use of union funds. if you were working for a public company and did it they’d probably call in the cops.]

    There is always a possibility that a family member or work mate “borrowed” the card, or it was left somewhere, then returned. In such cases, there have been internal investigations (sometimes involving police) and, depending on who and why had the card, paid by the family/ person involved and quietly dropped.

    There have been a number of such cases in federal and state politics; the most memorable Peter Reith’s $50,000 phone card & other misuse bills:

    [Workplace Relations Minister Peter Reith had been issued with a government mobile phone and tele-card but in October 2000 it was revealed that he had passed card number and pin code on to his son who then also passed it on to a flatmate again and very soon there was a $50,000.- phone bill.

    The opposition called on John Howard to sack Peter Reith which did not happen but it was reported that Peter paid the phonebill out of his own pocket rather than leave it to the taxpayer. In 2010 he also had to repay $2841 for flights taken by his wife Julie to various destinations.]

    http://www.amazingaustralia.com.au/scandals.htm

  36. Doyley

    Actually it’s not over yet.

    [Fair Work Australia is continuing an investigation into the union’s national office. ]

  37. [Labor backbencher Melissa Parke says she won’t agree to sending unaccompanied children to Malaysia under the government’s asylum seeker swap agreement.]

    All children and unaccompanied females should be returned to their PARENTS.
    why the government does not make this statement defies logic?.

  38. Some recent notable deaths:

    Miriam Karlin (85); Jack Kevorkian (83); Leo Rangell (97, Freudian therapist); Laurence Eagleburger (80, fmr. Sec. of State).

  39. It is strange that a rumour for the ALP is quickly spun into fact, yet, factual evidence that is damaging to the Coalition are often woven as a malicious rumours. 😀

  40. [Fair Work Australia is continuing an investigation into the union’s national office.]
    I’m not sure that is suggesting the members particular case is continuing though.

  42. Diogenes,

    I don’t know if you are aware but this matter is not something that has just happened. It is not breaking news.

    It was first in the news a long time ago. No charges have been laid, there has been no hint of any coruption charges even being considered.

    This is yesterdays news but Fairfax are shirty a person even had the courage to take them on. As far as I know Joel Fitzgibbon also has a case ongoing against Fairfax.

  45. Reform of NSW ALP is going to be very difficult.
    [JOE TRIPODI is out of Parliament but not out of power. The former Labor MP for Fairfield is a member of the party’s crucial rules committee and is blocking attempts to reform the party.

    At a meeting of the rules committee on May 25, Mr Tripodi opposed a motion from the party’s rank and file calling for measures to prevent branch stacking. About 150 resolutions calling for reform have been put to the committee, which vets them for consideration by NSW Labor’s annual conference. The committee meets next month.

    Mr Tripodi opposed a resolution for tighter controls over party membership, resulting in removal of the resolution.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/tripodi-is-back-with-a-hand-on-controls-20110605-1fnj0.html

  48. Can a journalist actually get sued for defamation for being asked a “when did you stop beating your wife” sort of question?

  50. lizzie

    Not sure, but the suggestion from Mirabella is that it is Combets place near the coast, and somehow he is not that worried about sea level rises. FFS the level of debate in this country has surely hit the gutter!!!

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