Morgan phone poll: 58-42 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has published a phone poll of 742 respondents (margin of error 3.5 per cent) conducted over the past three nights which shows the Coalition with a highly improbable two-party lead of 58-42 – the worst result ever recorded by the present government by a very wide margin. On the respondent-allocated measure of preferences, which Morgan uses for its headline figure, it’s 59-41. The primary votes are 50 per cent for the Coalition, 30 per cent for Labor and 9.5 per cent for the Greens. While the figures are a bit hard to believe, all the other questions posed in the poll have produced fairly typical responses: 32 per cent believe global warming concerns to be exaggerated against 50 per cent who want immediate action; 37 per cent support and 53 per cent oppose the government’s carbon tax; support and opposition for Tony Abbott’s policy of overturning the tax in government are both at 45 per cent.

I must confess myself a little puzzled by further questions raised by Morgan, in particular: “Australia is only responsible for about 1% of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions. Are you aware of this or not?” This sounds an awful lot more like an attempt to disseminate propaganda than to meaningfully measure public opinion. Nor do I understand what value there is in asking the man on the Clapham omnibus how high he expects sea levels to rise over the next century. Results to these questions and one or two others can be found at the above link, if you’re really that interested.

Of rather more value than this poll is the latest Possum’s Pollytrend chart, which shows the two-party situation reaching an equilibrium of 54-46 since mid-April.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,627 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. Cuppa@2433

    Both Fairfax and News Ltd reported the number of attendees at yesterday’s rally in Perth as 3,000. Their ABC reported THREE HUNDRED. No funny business going on there, of course.

    Hadn’t you heard? The Hogwarts auditing agency (BlackHoles’R’Us) has opened a new subdivision – I believe it is to be called Crowd Counts’R’Us. This is in addition to its recently opened OnlinePolls’R’Us division, which is apparently going gangbusters.

  2. I note that Michael Pachi on 3AW has taken one member’s comments re the Malaysia solution to show that Labor members are breaking out all over the place against the policy. Give a journalist an inch …..

  3. Gary

    That’s the same as the ABC
    All night I was hearing the news “Cracks are appearing in Labor…” “The left wing of the Labor Party has been quiet until now.”

  4. I also note that Greg Hunt has called on the government to delay the CT until after the election because the majority in the Galaxy poll are against it and want a new election.
    So Mr Hunt the majority in every poll I’ve seen recently don’t want us in Afganistan. I take it you’ll be, at the next election, supporting a withdrawal? No, didn’t think so.

  10. [OPT
    I am fairly sure that the OS funding for contraception was reinstated by the Rudd government, shortly after the election.]

    It was. I think Obama also reinstated the USA’s, but am not sure.

    IMO, government/UN funding (ie constituent states’ taxpayers’ money) should only be given if (& only if) services provided – education, health, job-training, whatever – are delivered free from any religiously-imposed “mission” or restriction.

    The issue is not a religion or other interest-group owning the facility’s right to impose access requirements and/ or restrictions; but rather if it is ethical and/ or permissible, for a religion or other interest-group owning a facility to impose access requirements and/ or restrictions on any facility fully or partly funded from the public purse.

    Until recently in Australia, no one HAD to use a religious hospital. This is no longer true.

    If, for example, you’re in Toowoomba medical “catchment area”, have cancer & need radiotherapy, you’ll be treated in St Andrews (Uniting/ P&M) hospital, which must provide for all needing treatment. The Cancer Unit will help you make a “living will”, which includes (a) right to accept/ reject religious personnel’s approaches, (b) right to make decisions re treatment, especially intervention, and whether your primary treatment concern is pain reduction or life-sustaining treatment. Your wishes must be enacted by the hospital. You also have the right to make the same “living will” with regard to other illnesses (inc heart-attack and stroke). Again, it must be respected.

    The more diagnoses and treatments depend on partly/fully taxpayer-funded machines, other technologies, treatment pharmaceuticals and adjunct professional services and research facilities – all very expensive (Cancer’s linear-accelerator, bunker and other required equipment & services cost tens ?23 of millions) – the more they will be spread across hospitals and shared by all patients whether they choose public, private non-denominational, or religious health care.

  11. lizzie

    He does he is the Member for Charlton in the Hunter Valley region but he and Mellissa Clarke are in a relationship.

  12. Danny Lewis @2459

    Doesn’t surprise me – SA also gave us the great Alexander Downer, Chris Pyne et al. All whingeing whining deadheads. SH-Y fits the bill perfectly.

  16. lizzie

    Given the Ministry he has and the amount of work it would entail you would imagine that he spends most of his time in Canberra.

  18. [So no one thinks the Member for Dobell could be in strife?]
    Legal processes could string that out for quite awhile.

  22. [i would want be reading mr corey evan

    but i would point out to you and others that IT is this PM Julia Gillard who is making the hard decisions for this country NOW of course if she had sailed along giving out money for hospitals and propping up welfare and any thing else she could think of to follow the lead of the libs for 11 years
    she would be way in front NO SHE HAS CHOSEN REFORM this brave lady has got it over all the others she is moving australia on to a better future.]

    My Say –

    Sure Labor is making a lot of tough decisions at the moment, but how much of this is because they have the Greens and the Independents poking them along?

    Do you think Labor would have taken on Miners, Polluters, MSM, farmers and the Gaming Industry all at once if it had a clear Majority? They’re getting shouted at from every part of the economy at the moment and it’s not doing anything to help their polls. Having so many “unpopular” policies out there is creating a lot of “noise” around the reform process. Ever cutting through with their message appears difficult and chances of winning next time are slim.

    I applaud Powerfox & the rest of the Labor team, they are doing well considering the opposition they face, but I still think they’re compromising too much. The Greens and Indies want to see action but on the other side they have rabid do-nothings and elements of Big Business that no longer bother with being apolitical. Are they really achieving the best outcomes while trying to walk the line?

    My opinion – Real policy bravery from this position would be to effectively concede defeat at the next election and bring in as much undiluted reform as possible before then:

    – Bring in the full RSPT as recommended by Treasury. They might as well implement the whole Ken Henry Tax Reform Package while they’re there.

    – Bring in a proper ETS without all this excessive compensation

    – Get NBN to a safe position (roll out well underway)

    – back out of the Malaysian Swap agreement

    – Get compulsory Superannuation to 15%

    – Remove tax vehicles for high income earners (such as trusts) and clean up Negative Gearing

    – Wind back a lot of unnecessary Middle Class welfare

    – Skills investment and removing infrastructure bottlenecks would set us up well for the next 20 years.

    – National curriculum and hospital system reform.

    Sure, then the Libs would benefit from all of Labor’s hard work, but for those in the know or those who appreciate brave reform, they’d leave office as heroes.

  24. mtbw,
    [Melissa Parke is the Member for Freemantle and the partner of Greg Combet.]

    If that is true they must have an ‘estranged’ (kilometres wide) relationship 🙂

  31. vic

    [Preliminary legal argument in the case in December heard Mr Thomson’s driver’s licence number was noted on the credit card vouchers issued by Keywed Pty Ltd, the Surry Hills company linked to the escort agency. They also contained a signature in Mr Thomson’s name.

    Records for Mr Thomson’s mobile phone show two calls to numbers associated with the agency. The bills also show the location of the phone to suggest someone was driving from Bateau Bay on the central coast to Sydney on the date the credit card was used at the agency.

    Fair Work Australia is continuing an investigation into the union’s national office. The federal opposition has called for a police investigation.]

    Difficult position to argue against I would have thought!

  36. Did not think using an escort service is a crime. goodness if that were the case, there would be no one left in Parliament!

  38. dee

    He has denied them!

    The matter has been raised before. He denied using his Union Credit Card inappropriately last year and the matter was dropped from memory but it has now raised it’s head again with him dropping his claim against Fairfax.

  40. [Great to see the advert by Getup in the OZ!]

    Victoria

    Also in the CM. It was on page 20, but at least it was there.

    Very strange page on page 9. Heading “Poll confirms fears over Labor’s carbon scheme.” The poll questions I have posted on the other site.

    But then they have an article “Thousands say yes to action on emissions.”

    Of course the heading and article for the poll of 500 people is larger than the thousands that rallied.

  41. MM
    [Dee, if the MP has dropped his defamation case I’d say there must be some substance to them.]
    Not necessarily!
    Many people with valid claims drop them for various reasons.

    Vic
    Pretty good ad don’t ya think! 🙂

  43. Dio

    [It appears the police aren’t investigating that case so I can’t see that there could be a by-election.]

    You may be right!

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