Morgan phone poll: 58-42 to Coalition

Roy Morgan has published a phone poll of 742 respondents (margin of error 3.5 per cent) conducted over the past three nights which shows the Coalition with a highly improbable two-party lead of 58-42 – the worst result ever recorded by the present government by a very wide margin. On the respondent-allocated measure of preferences, which Morgan uses for its headline figure, it’s 59-41. The primary votes are 50 per cent for the Coalition, 30 per cent for Labor and 9.5 per cent for the Greens. While the figures are a bit hard to believe, all the other questions posed in the poll have produced fairly typical responses: 32 per cent believe global warming concerns to be exaggerated against 50 per cent who want immediate action; 37 per cent support and 53 per cent oppose the government’s carbon tax; support and opposition for Tony Abbott’s policy of overturning the tax in government are both at 45 per cent.

I must confess myself a little puzzled by further questions raised by Morgan, in particular: “Australia is only responsible for about 1% of the world’s total carbon dioxide emissions. Are you aware of this or not?” This sounds an awful lot more like an attempt to disseminate propaganda than to meaningfully measure public opinion. Nor do I understand what value there is in asking the man on the Clapham omnibus how high he expects sea levels to rise over the next century. Results to these questions and one or two others can be found at the above link, if you’re really that interested.

Of rather more value than this poll is the latest Possum’s Pollytrend chart, which shows the two-party situation reaching an equilibrium of 54-46 since mid-April.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,627 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 58-42 to Coalition”

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  1. middle man @2547,

    All good.

    I just find it interesting ( if that is the word ) that something like this can take on a bit of a life of its own without any detail or knowledge being available.

  2. [A Labor return in NSW will take longer if it is reliant on BOF and no change by ALP.]
    It’s going to take a long time anyway but the wheels turn naturally.

  3. It’s interesting that the political far right support the free movement of money and goods across borders but not the free movement of people. The far left support the free movement of people but not of money and goods.
    This illustrates how each lives in an unachievable bubble which, even worse, is internally inconsistent.

  4. Pegasus
    I wrote many letters of appeal regarding the 200 minors, young boys, between 10 & 15 in detention in adult male prisons in Indonesia.
    Chris Evans referred me to the UNHCR who were looking after the issue.
    I recieved one polite letter but nothing since.
    But, can you tell me how minors, between 10-15 are making their way to Indonesia all by themselves?
    Are we looking at something else here, such as child trafficking?

  5. Interesting to read into the ABC reporting on the statement by Melissa Parke.

    She stated that she would find it difficult to agree with any plan not backed by the UNHCR. A far comment and a condition that will be met.

    She did no oppose the plan outright. However, the ABC is pushing that line.

    ABC really pushing this after the big ” exclusive ” on Lateline where they revealed a out of date draft as being the real deal.

  6. [TONY Abbott concedes the number of asylum-seeker boats coming to Australia has fallen, but he has refused to credit the Gillard government’s swap deal with Malaysia for the drop in numbers.]

    So when the boats are coming, it’s pull factors and all the govt’s fault, but when they aren’t coming it has nothing to do with anything the govt’s done?

    They really are worried about having one of their attack angle taken away.

  7. [TONY Abbott concedes the number of asylum-seeker boats coming to Australia has fallen, but he has refused to credit the Gillard government’s swap deal with Malaysia for the drop in numbers.]
    Tone, you’re on your last legs with this issue.

  8. Just reading latest Pollytics Blog,

    Have men always preferred Conservatives / Coalition parties or is this a recent phenomenon?

    Would like to know more about that trend in a historical context and the reasons why.

  9. This is what Melissa Parke said:

    “MELISSA PARKE: All children deserve a childhood and Australia has signed up to the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child. They are entitled to have their welfare and rights protected and the Minister as the official guardian of unaccompanied minors has a responsibility to ensure that Australia complies with its legal obligations under that convention.

    NAOMI WOODLEY: Melissa Parke is the member for Fremantle in Western Australia, and a former UN lawyer. She says she can see the merits in a regional framework to stop people smuggling, and the Minister is doing his best to reach a satisfactory agreement. But she says there must be limits.

    MELISSA PARKE: And in particular I could not support sending unaccompanied minors to another country.”

    And here is the report with said quotation.

    Where is the beatup?

  10. [Have men always preferred Conservatives / Coalition parties or is this a recent phenomenon?]
    Is it because so many conservative policies and pronouncements can be taken as being “macho”?

  11. [Is it because so many conservative policies and pronouncements can be taken as being “macho”?]

    I’d love to hear some further commentary or demonstrated theory on the topic. I know from experience that, out of all my mates from School, Uni and the Workplace, 2 or 3 vote Labor. I thought this might have been out of the ordinary but clearly not.

    I don’t know whether conservative policies are traditionally more “macho” as you say or there is something more to it.

  12. Sossy, you should choose your mates more carefully.

    As an Irish colleen once said, “you can tell a man that boozes from the company he choses”

  13. Gary

    I think it is arguable Melissa Parke is saying something different about minors. Hardly beat up country.

  14. shellbell

    The beatup was that all night in every news the ABC were saying there were cracks in Labor, that the MP was refusing to support the Malaysian move, etc etc. The minister had already said that each case would be assessed on its own merits.

  15. Fulvio,

    I usually don’t bring up Politics until I’ve known people for a while. Then it’s too late!

    I suppose living in QLD doesn’t help my cause either 😛

  16. Lizzie

    That is not how the AM report appears.

    There is a focussed difference which may well be reconciled in due course. But, at the moment, Bowen leaves open option for transfer of an unaccompanied minor. Parke says open for her not to support that position. Why cant that be reported?

  17. It is not clear to me that the Minister of Immigration becomes the official guardian of a child just because she or he turns up on a boat near Australian waters without obvious accompanying parents. This raises all sorts of questions.

  18. T’was an evening in November,
    As I very well remember,
    I was strolling down the street in drunken pride.
    But my knees were all a flutter
    And I landed in the gutter,
    Where a pig came by and lay down by my side.

    Yes I lay there in the gutter,
    Thinking thoughts I could not utter,
    When a colleen passing by did softly say,
    “You can tell a man that boozes,
    By the company he chooses”

    And at that the pig got up and walked away.


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