Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition

Crikey reports the latest Essential Research poll has the Coalition lead at 53-47, up from 52-48 last week – which managing director Peter Lewis indicated Labor was lucky to get to because of rounding. On the primary vote, Labor is down two points to 34 per cent, with the Coalition and the Greens up a point each to 47 per cent and 12 per cent. I should have the full report shortly, but in the meantime Bernard Keane of Crikey summarises the other findings thus:

Voters strongly support Labor’s moves to trim middle-class welfare, according to today’s Essential Report.

Fifty-two per cent of voters back Wayne Swan’s budget night measure to continue the pause in indexation of the thresholds at which family payments are phased out, to 28% who oppose them. Even Liberal voters back them, 47-38%. Voters were strongly of the view that households earning more than $150,000 a year don’t need family payments — 67% of voters agreed with that, and only 27% disagreed.

Only 35% agreed that all taxpayers should be eligible for some form of payment, regardless of income, compared to 57% disagreeing. However, most voters distinguished between family payments and welfare, with 61% agreeing that family payments to middle-income earners were different to welfare payments to low income earners (we’ll discuss Essential’s results on views toward middle class welfare in more detail tomorrow).

There has also been a further rise in support for the Government’s plan to impose a price on carbon. After reaching the nadir of support at the end of March, when support was just 34% and opposition 51%, support grew in April and last week was at 41% support and 44% opposition, with Greens voters now strongly in favour of it after initially being lukewarm.

The poll also revealed a quite remarkable ignorance of one of the government’s key reforms, its scheduled increase in the compulsory superannuation rate to 12%. Around 53% of voters said they had not heard of the proposal and a further 27% saying they had heard little — a damning indictment of Labor’s efforts to sell what began as a key part of its mining tax package, particularly given there was strong support for the proposal across voters of different stripes.

UPDATE: Full report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

8,354 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Coalition”

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  1. Newspoll result is welcome – I hear the sharpening on the knives that will go into Abbott’s back soon after the ETS and mining tax get up and households are happy with the compensation and extra super payments. What’s the bet the Oz reports Newspoll very very quietly, or will pick some ray of light for Abbott (e.g. “Rudd preferred over Gillard”) as the main headline. It is great to see their panic in the lead up to July 1 – I’m really looking forward to progressive government for the first time since 1996.

  6. Strawman,

    I have long maintained that Turnbull is the epitome of the corporate ‘high flyer’. The type that comes in when things are going well anyway, makes some noise about how good they are, then disappears up the tree before the smelly stuff hits the fan.

    He would be an absolute disaster.

  10. [bemused
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 10:30 pm | Permalink
    Mod Lib @ 8293
    Are you happy?]

    Always!

    As long as one of them is getting hammered, suits me fine. I want both JG and TA gone.

  12. victoria @ 8301

    Bemused

    Weather forecast for Melbourne on Sunday is patchy rain. That may affect turnout

    Are you really a Victorian?

    Not used to a little bit of “Victorian sunshine”?

    It will raise the umbrella count.

  14. [sustainable future

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 10:30 pm | Permalink

    Newspoll result is welcome – I hear the sharpening on the knives that will go into Abbott’s back soon after the ETS and mining tax get up and households are happy with the compensation and extra super payments. What’s the bet the Oz reports Newspoll very very quietly, or will pick some ray of light for Abbott (e.g. “Rudd preferred over Gillard”) as the main headline. It is great to see their panic in the lead up to July 1 – I’m really looking forward to progressive government for the first time since 1996.
    ]

    Gillard’s Performance will be the bit highlighted by the OO – that’s the only positive for the Libs they have.

  18. [my say
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 8:06 pm | Permalink

    as we have no talkback, i didnt realise how other spoke about things what a shock that was.

    i wonder if that is why we are labor here more often than not.]

    I think I’ll move to Tassie, My Say. I like the idea of no talkback.

  19. LATIKAMBOURKE | 2 minutes ago
    [Agriculture Minister wants to see all the Australian Government’s options, including banning live trade with a specific country. #4Corners]

  20. [Gillard’s Performance will be the bit highlighted by the OO – that’s the only positive for the Libs they have.]

    Suggest you have another look at the Newspoll Frank. Not sure you can justify that statement!

  21. Lee Rhiannon to go on QandA next week. Interesting times ahead for the Greens as the media go out of their way to poke her with sharp sticks until they get a reaction.

  22. [Mod Lib

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 10:38 pm | Permalink

    Gillard’s Performance will be the bit highlighted by the OO – that’s the only positive for the Libs they have.

    Suggest you have another look at the Newspoll Frank. Not sure you can justify that statement!
    ]

    Easy, it’s the only thing they can bash Lavbor on.

    Keep denying the fact Your mate Abbott is Fooked 🙂

  24. LATIKAMBOURKE | 2 minutes ago
    [Joe Ludwig says he was shocked: It is clear that industry reforms to animal welfare standards have not gone far enough or been fast enough.]

  26. Mod Lib @ 8308

    Mod Lib @ 8293
    Are you happy?

    Always!

    As long as one of them is getting hammered, suits me fine. I want both JG and TA gone.

    Well you will find some happiness in one of them going – TA.

  27. [victoria
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 10:20 pm | Permalink

    Newspoll has been a very welcome surprise:) ]

    victoria I am surprised you are surprised, it was going to be a plus for the Govt as was anticipated by Hockey yesterday. I did suggest he had received a preview from Shanahan who is the poll king for news Ltd

  28. POLLYTICS | 1 minute ago
    [Anyone want to throw me $4 mill? I want to run an ad campaign on “budget constraint” and “income effect” with graphs for the carbon price]

  29. Shana at the Oz:

    [THE Coalition has kept its clear election-winning lead over Labor as Julia Gillard’s personal support continues to languish and Tony Abbott calls for an early “carbon tax” election.]

  31. It’s a bit premature to get excited over a 52-48 poll IMHO as there is still a 4 point buffer the other way. Gillard could get a big PPm bounce if Abbott gets rolled as she would be seen as the victor in their battle.

  32. Quality performance by Entsch. 2% gifted (although it is within MOE so it’s not conclusive, only suggestive). If Abbott knew about the email before it was sent, his judgement is also abysmal.

  34. While the Newspoll 52-48 is now competitive, it is much too early to break out the champagne!

    Most elections in Oz are within the 52-48 boundaries and this is usually enough to give one side or the other a thumping win in terms of seats.

    The most important thing has been the shift in recognition by the conservatives that, baring accident, the next election will be in 2013. By this time the government will get a raft of legislation in place, there will be two more budgets and even in 2013 – should TA win – if he lasts that long – the conservatives are still unlikely to control the Senate, no matter which way things go.

    The best news is that despite their bleating the conservatives know they will have to wait until 2013 to even have a crack at office. By that time, the Oz public will see the PM as a tough fighter who, despite all the acid thrown at her by the conservatives, is a winner.

    The progressive side of politics should be optimistic but prudent. We should view the high water mark of the conservatives in the polls as akin to looking at how high the scum goes before water subsides in the wash basin.

  35. [george

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 10:44 pm | Permalink

    Shana at the Oz:

    THE Coalition has kept its clear election-winning lead over Labor as Julia Gillard’s personal support continues to languish and Tony Abbott calls for an early “carbon tax” election.
    ]

    Mod Lib:
    Told Ya 🙂

  37. [george
    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 10:29 pm | Permalink

    So is the newspoll anywhere on the OO? Can’t see it on the home page]

    george, good news for Labor is not a good news front page for News Ltd, they will take their time…can’t wait for shanahans idiotic summary of the poll, he never fails to deliver.

  38. [abcmarkscott Mark Scott
    A tough, confronting #4Corners. Journalism with consequence. Thanks to all who worked on this overwhelming story. http://bit.ly/jBwF8R
    5 minutes ago]

    Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    @
    @abcmarkscott what about a “Journalism with consequence” on the appalling treatment of CC by the Opposition. it is just as cruel #auspol
    17 seconds ago

  40. [Easy, it’s the only thing they can bash Lavbor on.

    Keep denying the fact Your mate Abbott is Fooked ]

    I can think of many things in that poll that are labor bashable with actually.

    So why do you think Abbott is ……. due to this by the way?

  41. [8338

    Mod Lib

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 10:48 pm | Permalink

    Easy, it’s the only thing they can bash Lavbor on.

    Keep denying the fact Your mate Abbott is Fooked

    I can think of many things in that poll that are labor bashable with actually.

    So why do you think Abbott is ……. due to this by the way?
    ]

    The fact there is a fall in the liberal primary 🙂

    Keep Dreaming

  43. [Greensborough Growler

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 10:50 pm | Permalink

    The really good news from this poll is that Tony Abbott s unelctable.
    ]

    Exactly – not a good PPM for him at all.

  45. [Well you will find some happiness in one of them going – TA.]

    My first choice for dumping (mid year)

    Second choice is JG (end of year)

  47. Gus – did you get a response from Poss as to why he and Farnsworth tweeted about the PM as they did?

    BK – missed North Square. Don’t know why unless it was on FTA which we haven’t had for 30 years.

    Agree re Q&A – it got nowhere. Did Jackie Kelly really say that the Red Cross is for ‘others’ and not AS or did I mishear.

  49. [8343

    Mod Lib

    Posted Monday, May 30, 2011 at 10:54 pm | Permalink

    Well you will find some happiness in one of them going – TA.

    My first choice for dumping (mid year)

    Second choice is JG (end of year)
    ]

    1 out of 2

    I can live with that 🙂

  50. [Shana at the Oz:

    THE Coalition has kept its clear election-winning lead over Labor as Julia Gillard’s personal support continues to languish and Tony Abbott calls for an early “carbon tax” election.]

    Thanks Frank I go to my bed fully justified in my opinion of shanahan, he is the great example of what I see you don’t.

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