The latest Newspoll has produced the 54-46 two-party preferred result the market has come to expect, but with Julia Gillard taking a hammering on her personal ratings: approval down four to 34 per cent, disapproval up six to 55 per cent. However, Tony Abbott is down too, contrary to other polls from recent weeks: his approval is down four points to 38 per cent and disapproval up three to 51 per cent. Julia Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is down to just four points: her own rating is down three points to 42 per cent, with and Abbott up two to 38 per cent. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 33 per cent with the Coalition up two to 46 per cent and the Greens down two to 10 per cent.
The poll also finds that the tough-medicine angle on the budget is the one that has gained currency: 37 per cent believe it will be good for the economy against 32 per cent bad, but fully 41 per cent believe it will make them worse off personally against only 11 per cent who think it will make them better off. As it is with so many things these days, opinion as to whether the Coalition would have delivered a better budget is evenly split: 38 per cent say yes, 41 per cent say no. However, the latter number would include those who believe they would have done no better or worse, so this would have to be rated a positive set of numbers for the Coalition. Figures as always courtesy of GhostWhoVotes on Twitter. UPDATE: And now full tables.
UPDATE: The montly Nielsen poll is even worse for the government, though not actually worse than in the previous Nielsen poll a month ago: the results are steady for two-party preferred (56-44) and both major parties’ primary votes, with the Coalition leading Labor 47 per cent to 31 per cent. As in Newspoll, the Greens have dropped two to 10 per cent. Personal ratings are bewilderingly different from Newspoll’s: Julia Gillard is down two on approval and up two on disapproval, but her totals of 43 per cent and 52 per cent. The poll provides further evidence that Tony Abbott’s position has improved over the past month, his approval up three to 45 per cent and disapproval down one to 50 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-42 to 47-44. The budget was rated “fair” by 42 per cent and not fair by 39 per cent. There were also questions on the deal with Malaysia on asylum seekers, the results of which are summarised thus by Michelle Grattan of The Age:
Just over a third (35 per cent) support the Malaysian deal, including a bare majority (51 per cent) of Labor voters. Less than a quarter of Coalition voters (23 per cent) support it, and 45 per cent of Green voters. More than seven in 10 Coalition voters and nearly four in 10 Labor voters are against it. Asked about the policy’s effectiveness, 23 per cent predicted it would increase arrivals by boat, while only 16 per cent said it would reduce them. Of those who support the measure, 57 per cent think it will make no difference and 12 per cent believe it will increase arrivals – just 28 per cent think it will reduce them. Among those opposed, 60 per cent say it will make no difference, 30 per cent believe it will increase arrivals and a mere 8 per cent think it will reduce them. The Malaysia solution has the most support in Western Australia.
We also had on Saturday a Galaxy poll which found the budget to be deemed good by 28 per cent and bad by 39 per cent, comparing with respective figures of 43 per cent and 28 per cent last year. Only 11 per cent of respondents deemed Labor “sound managers” of the economy, down six points on last year, with “poor managers” up eight points to 33 per cent. In a gobsmacking repudiation of reality, fully 47 per cent of respondents were ready to nominate a family income of $150,000 as “about average” – as of 2007-08, the planet Earth figure for median household income was $66,820. Only 44 per cent acknowledged such an income as “very rich” or “quite rich”. It was also found 51 per cent were opposed to the government’s plan to provide free digital set-top boxes for pensioners, with 45 per cent supportive. Full results from GhostWhoVotes.
Notable local happenings:
• Jon Stanhope has resigned as Chief Minister of the Australian Capital Territory after 10 years in the job, and will formally quit parliament next week. His deputy, Katy Gallagher, was chosen by caucus to succeed Stanhope without opposition. Stanhope’s vacancy in the Legislative Assembly will be filled by a re-count of the votes that elected him to his Ginninderra electorate seat at the 2008 election. In practice this means it will go to whichever of the unsuccessful Labor candidates from the election chooses to nominate. These included Adina Cirson, a staffer to Gallagher who polled 5.0 per cent of the ttoal vote at the election; David Peebles, who holds a senior position at the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and polled 4.9 per cent; and Chris Bourke, a dentist of Aboriginal background. Noel Towell of the Canberra Times reports that Peebles “has been offered and accepted a job as Australia’s Deputy High Commissioner to the Solomon Islands and is thought to be unlikely to accept an Assembly seat”, which would appear to make the position available for Cirson should she choose to accept it.
• Four months after resigning as Tasmanian Premier, David Bartlett has announced his resignation from parliament. This will activate a recount similar to the one outlined above. The three unsuccessful candidates from Bartlett’s division of Denison included two incumbents – Lisa Singh, who had been a minister, and the accident-prone Graeme Sturges – both of whom lost out to Labor newcomer Scott Bacon. The other candidate on the ticket was Madeleine Ogilvie, a barrister. Singh has since been elected to the Senate, where she will assume her seat on July 1, and is hence not a starter. Ogilvie has confirmed she will seek the position, while Sturges has been reported saying he is “considering his options”.
UPDATE 2: Essential Research has turned in a bit of a surprise, with the Coalition lead narrowing from 54-46 to 52-48. This comes from a one point drop on the Coalition primary vote to 46 per cent, a one point rise for Labor to 36 per cent and a one point rise for the Greens to 11 per cent. The poll nonetheless finds a generally negative response to the budget: 29 per cent believe it will be bad for them personally against 11 per cent bad; 25 per cent think bad for business against 20 per cent good; and 29 per cent say bad for the economy overall against 27 per cent good. Despite that, a question on whether the economy is headed in the right or wrong direction produces near identical results to last year’s post-budget poll, with 46 per cent saying it is and 29 per cent saying it isn’t. On the question of which party “would be best at handling the Australian economy in the interests of you and people like you”, 40 per cent say Liberal and 30 per cent say Labor.
There ia also a question on asylum seekers which to my mind mostly demonstrates how much trouble pollsters can get into when their questions seek to explain things to respondents. The question in this case being: “Do you support or oppose the Government’s plan to send asylum seekers arriving by boat in Australia to PNG and Malaysia if it means it will cost taxpayers substantially more than it would if we just processed asylum seekers on the mainland in Australia.” And since they put it like that: 60 per cent say oppose, 24 per cent say support. Which sounds like good news of a kind for supporters of a liberal stand on the issue, but only because tougher approaches were left off the menu.
UPDATE 3 (17/5/11): JWS Research has polled 2141 people in the 10 most marginal Labor and Coalition seats, finding an aggregate 58-42 result in the Coalition’s favour on voting intention. Fully 50 per cent of respondents rated the Howard government the best of Australia’s last five – though it should be noted here that “government” was defined in terms of who the prime minister was, so that the Labor vote was split four ways. Very similar personal ratings were recorded for Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott – 33 per cent approval and 44 per cent disapproval for the former, against 33 per cent and 46 per cent for the latter. Findings on the budget were broadly in line with other recent polling, with a slight majority deeming it good for the economy and a larger one deeming it bad for them personally.
I’d forgotten the Internet Filter – that’s been very quietly buried since the last election. 😉
Gillard needs to reshuffle the cabinet, bring in some new talent like Andrew Leigh, Mike Kelly, Amanda Risworth, Melissa Park.
Conroy and a few others need to be given their marching orders.
[Mytwobobsworth
Posted Monday, May 16, 2011 at 5:47 pm | Permalink
BH
Conroy is a right wing acolyte and at the moment the right are controlling the show. The are very disinclind to have to share power and that is why they don’t want the review discussed.
]
and your proof is ?
[michellegrattan Michelle Grattan
maybe not a good idea for julia to go on that business panel. Looked sitting duck
1 hour ago ]
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
@
@michellegrattan At least Gillard has the courage to do so. Abbott didnt have the courage to face Red Kerry on #ABC730 #auspol
24 seconds ago
Frank, it was just a little jokey.
bemused
[But they can only do so much. When handed crap like ‘Cash for Clunkers’ and ‘Citizens Assembly’, which came out of Julia’s office, there is only so much they can do.]
That was at the time when Amanda Lampe a member of the NSW Right was Julia’s Chief of Staff.
Funny how suddenly The Right and Their Factions are bad – yet they were strangely silent when those same warlords gave us Kevin Rudd 🙂
bemused
I agree that the review recommendations are not ‘behind closed doors’ business. That is the sort of behavior the review is trying to change. They are good ideas aimed at getting more members (other than by the group stack that is) because of real participation. The reform ideas should be made as public as possible – right now or the right-wing undertakers will bury it out if public view as they did in 2002.
Frank @ 947
It seems that traditional meetings don’t appeal as much as they once did and one of the things that was examined by Bracks/Faulkner/Carr was this point.
Some organisations still manage to run meetings with a good turn out and so too do some branches. But they are more innovative.
[I am thinking of getting a pet snake, just so I can call it Abbott.]
I like snakes PTMD — how about a slug … or a cockroach — he seems to survive despite ALL common sense!
Frank
[and your proof is]
Thirty odd years of dealing with the hard men of the NSW right. Richardson Loosely Eassons Roozendaal etc.
How soon Frank forgets the 2007 election result………….:D
Tonight’s Q&A should be riveting – Shorten vs Eric Abetz. 😆
Thefinnigans The Finnigans
Malcolm Turnbull said on #ABCRadio you build the infrastructure first then people will come. So why is he not supporting the #NBN #auspol
6 seconds ago
MTBW @ 95
She was not the source of those ideas.
I have previously identified the ‘genius’ behind the ‘citizens assembly’ and provided the URL of a press report. I have been told that the ‘cash for clunkers’ was from the same source.
I also think she was a dud, but I am saying she was not the only one.
[bemused
Posted Monday, May 16, 2011 at 5:52 pm | Permalink
Frank @ 947
Peoplev are not committed to political parties as they once were,
Same with most, if not all non-profit organisations.
It seems that traditional meetings don’t appeal as much as they once did and one of the things that was examined by Bracks/Faulkner/Carr was this point.
Some organisations still manage to run meetings with a good turn out and so too do some branches. But they are more innovative.
]
Which is why we decided last week with our own “Gang of Three” to organise a BBQ where they xcan meet the WA Lasbor Shadow people and reinvigorate the branch that way.
Also we are look at getting more union people to transfer to our branch.
jv @ 957
I agree
bemused
Point taken!
[960
Mytwobobsworth
Posted Monday, May 16, 2011 at 5:54 pm | Permalink
Frank
and your proof is
Thirty odd years of dealing with the hard men of the NSW right. Richardson Loosely Eassons Roozendaal etc.
]
Those same people who gave us Kevin 07 🙂
It’s funny how quickly people forget.
I met up with “a man who knows” in town today. He said that there was a move within the Govt to “go after” News Ltd after July 1. Apparently the Greens are in favour, might even be pushing for it.The rationale is that every govt since Whitlam has wanted to do something about concentration of press ownership but were worried about the reaction of News. The thought now is that if News are going to behave like they are at the moment, the govt may as well do what needs to be done because there is nothing much in the way of payback that News can do that they haven’t done already.
I reckon it would be a good thing. If nothing else it might ensure employment for a greated number of journalists, which could possibly bring a greater diversity of opinion to the printed media.
Geez, Evan 14, the sincerest form of flattery. Thanks for that.
BTW: I might be in my 70th year, but I don’t have Altzheimers!
A question for those here who do belong to political parties (which I do not).
All of the evidence seems to be that the political party membership in this country is on a downward trajectory (in common with other westminster democracies at least). Have there been any spikes in membership in recent years? did Kevin 07 bring any new members into the ALP for instance – and if so have they stuck around?
Also, I was just doing some googling on the memberships of the parties – the rank and file of the ALP seems to be about 39,000 across the country – it seems safe to assume that a reasonable percentage (10%) of those would be actually on the party payroll especially as staffers – would that seem a reasonable assumption? This number of course would have declined with the loss of power in NSW and Victoria. The Libs and Nats may not be dissimilar so I am not singling the ALP out. It just seems that the stage has been reached where a large number of party members (on both sides) are motivated less by belief or ideology but more by earning a living.
Frank @ 964
Way to go!!!
That is what Branch Executives should be doing all the time.
We are looking at meetings in a pub and a coffee shop. If other patrons show an interest, they are welcome to join in the discussion.
Michael Cusack: I pray to His Noodliness that you are right 😀
Frank
[Those same people who gave us Kevin 07
It’s funny how quickly people forget.]
Please give up I think Kevin did a lot of work himself over the years, You love the right I don’t surely we can agree to disagree. Your branch meetings must be pretty dull if there is no debate nor discussion.
[Mytwobobsworth
Posted Monday, May 16, 2011 at 6:03 pm | Permalink
Frank
Those same people who gave us Kevin 07
It’s funny how quickly people forget.
Please give up I think Kevin did a lot of work himself over the years, You love the right I don’t surely we can agree to disagree. Your branch meetings must be pretty dull if there is no debate nor discussion.
]
And an example of people starting to believe the BS from the MSM.
Frank @ 967
The move to install KR before the 2007 election was much broader than the NSW right. On that occasion I happened to agree with them but did feel a certain sadness for Kim Beazley.
That does not make them always wise and correct. More a case of one of the few occasions in recent times they got it right.
I agree with Patrick Bateman #598. Gillard needs to something radical as she looks like she will lose the next election and will now need to consider her legacy. She should do a “Whitlam” and ram through as many Labor reforms as she can before she gets turfed. To quote the immortal line from Midnight Oil – “Its better to die on your feet, than live on your knees”. She should forget about appeasing those god-awful, selfish, whinging, “aspirational”, working middleclass (I hope they get trashed by that scary f***wit Abbott – “serf choices” should do nicely as an opener). She should also ignore Murdoch and the shock jocks and treat them as “white noise” – she knows where she stands and knows she has nothing to lose. Firstly, she should roll out as much of the NBN as possible – blow the budget if she has to in order to achieve this and forget about the stupid surplus in 2013 – why hand Abbott a budget that’s back in surplus? The media wont thank her for it. In the process she jabs one finger in Murdoch’s eye. Secondly, get the mining tax through. Thirdly, get the carbon tax through and promote the renewable energy sector. How’s this for radical? – build a solar-thermal power plant(s). That should give the carbon industry the shits. Fourthly, change the cross-media rules to allow for greater diversification – in the process Julia jabs another finger in Murdoch’s second eye. Fifthly, support Wilkie’s proposals for poker machines – a nice poke in the eye for the Hotels Industry Association. Fifthly, once she’s done the above, get Oakeshott and Windsor’s support for admitting Malaysia is a mistake, dismantle mandatory detention and process asylum seekers onshore. Mandatory detention was always shit politics and a shit policy. Sixthly, in the next budget, freeze indexation for Family Part A & B payments across the board – one in the eye for those whinging boguns who litter the comments pages of the MSM. That will give them really something to scream about.
[Conroy and a few others need to be given their marching orders]
Conroy has proven himself to be a communications and technology expert. He has made Turnbull look third rate in every part of his portfolio.
The NBN is in the black and on track, much to the dismay of Turnbull and Abbott. They would surely like him to be replaced from his area of expertise, but it won’t happen.
Conroy is there to stay, evan14.
Michael Cusack @ 968
Very interesting! I hope they do!
[bemused
Posted Monday, May 16, 2011 at 6:05 pm | Permalink
Frank @ 967
Frank
and your proof is
Thirty odd years of dealing with the hard men of the NSW right. Richardson Loosely Eassons Roozendaal etc.
Those same people who gave us Kevin 07
It’s funny how quickly people forget.
The move to install KR before the 2007 election was much broader than the NSW right. On that occasion I happened to agree with them but did feel a certain sadness for Kim Beazley.
That does not make them always wise and correct. More a case of one of the few occasions in recent times they got it right.
]
I’m referring more to the campaign than the actually installation of Rudd. Especially in gaining all those seats that were traditionally “Howard’s Battler’s”.
Michael Cusack @ 968
A few problems with your argument:
– The ALP is reponsible for their own problems re News Ltd as it was the Hawke government that allowed the takeover of HWT in 1986,
– Any move on News would unleash such a firestorm that it would probably be self defeating.
– The print media is not where future media will be, look at Fairfax, it is probably on life support as we speak.
Michael C @ 968;
[I met up with “a man who knows” in town today. He said that there was a move within the Govt to “go after” News Ltd after July 1. Apparently the Greens are in favour, might even be pushing for it.]
Oh how I hope that is true. Mind you seeing will be believing on this one – I’ve heard rumours of it before.
blackburnpseph @ 970
Your starting point should be that all parties lie about their membership so any figures you have found are probably an exaggeration.
[bemused
Posted Monday, May 16, 2011 at 6:10 pm | Permalink
blackburnpseph @ 970
Your starting point should be that all parties lie about their membership so any figures you have found are probably an exaggeration.
]
Also you will find that the Liberal Party pay their boothworkers – who are usually Backpackers and thos on Working Holidays.
I think it is silly dividing the Labor Party into a left and a right. It’s not the Labor Party with the broad church of members, it is the Liberal Party.
The Liberals range greatly fron their moderates to One Nation extremists such as Abbott.
Labor has evolved to an economic conservative (such as budget surplus 2013), socially progressive (such as paid parenting scheme) party.
Could the Greens supporters go and get their own voter base!
Acccording to the bimbo on channel 9 Brisbane, because Abbott has a commanding lead in the polls, we’ll we hearing a lot more of “Call an Election”.
I must have missed something, but I thought elections were every three years. Opinion polls have nothing to with having an early election.
I can’t remember Kim Beazley, or Kevin Rudd calling for an early election because they were winning in the opinion polls.
[Conroy is saying you do not air your dirty laundry in public – and giving a free pass to the libs in the process.]
Frank – I agree wholeheartedly with that. I may have misread Conroy this morning and a few weeks ago but I thought he meant it should be discarded altogether.
It seems to be a considered report so hopefully it is being pulled apart within the heirachy of the Party for real change.
To tell you the truth about 2007 election – I loved it that Kev stayed on song and I thanked Tim Gartrell (National Labor heirachy) and John Faulkner for it and the bloke who came up with the Kevin 07 bit.
But even back then my inner soul was saying that we were overpromising and it was something I heard from other Branch members who have been around a long time.
Hawker Britton did their bit too but the mood has changed enormously. We need to adapt to that dark change by throwing away the damn focus groups which point out Abbott’s ‘a risk’ or whatever. Let’s get some good lines for our positives. They are numerous if you look for them.
Definitely need Emmerson, Andrew Leigh, Butler, Jason Clare out there for us. Albo is not the one to do it. Penny Wong is not the one to do it this time. Cut through, positive voices are needed.
Frank @ 982
Dead right. The ALP may have it’s problems but the Fibs are even worse and in my area hardly exist.
If they didn’t have the funding they have to run campaigns and staff polling booths they would be in even more trouble.
Stephen Conroy has had his idiot moments – the web filter being the glaring example – but generally he has been successful – he has kept the NBN on track and on policy focus. Jenny Macklin has also managed to keep her portfolio on track. It seems that the weakness in this government seems more obvious the closer you get to the top – and sooner or later the buck has to stop with Julia Gillard. Kevin Rudd, past and present also has to shoulder that responsibility.
[Gillard needs to reshuffle the cabinet, bring in some new talent like Andrew Leigh, Mike Kelly, Amanda Risworth, Melissa Park.
Conroy and a few others need to be given their marching orders.]
That’s right evan just give the Libs the chance to say the government is panicking and unstable.
They don’t need to do this at all. That will only satisfy you and remove those you hate and we know why that is.
[If nothing else it might ensure employment for a greated number of journalists, which could possibly bring a greater diversity of opinion to the printed media.]
Hallelujah! I was thinking about this only today. That effort to kill off Bolta’s new show by boycotting their advertisers went through my mind today as I passed through Chullora where the Sydney papers are produced.
Threaten Murdoch’s advertising mandate and you hit him where it hurts.
I still think it might be worth a try — but it would mean garnering a LOT of grassroots help.
Also another reason for the falling ALP Membership.
Workchoices being axed, and the Iraq WAr not being on the Front page
Those issue galvanised the support base which wasn’t seen since the Vietnam War.
While for the Libs – they are being Galvanised by the Carbon Tax.
People usually join a political party whwen there is a burning issue which deeply affects them.
For us – there is northing of that nature.
[Acccording to the bimbo on channel 9 Brisbane, because Abbott has a commanding lead in the polls, we’ll we hearing a lot more of “Call an Election”.]
I saw this too, in Melbourne.
Mark Riley decided to use the approval figure from Nielsen and the two party preferred from Newspoll on Seven News. Am I wrong in thinking that is actually not the worst combo he could have used for the Government?
@968, I’d feel more happy about the prospect of clipping News Ltd’s wings if someone could convince me that that sort of legislation would get through the lower house.
“Dead right. The ALP may have it’s problems but the Fibs are even worse and in my area hardly exist.”
Bemused, where are you?
blackburnpseph
[It just seems that the stage has been reached where a large number of party members (on both sides) are motivated less by belief or ideology but more by earning a living.]
There would be some truth in that I would think! I believe that the branch meetings have fallen away in the last couple of decades because people felt that it didn’t matter what they did their voice wasn’t heard. The reasons are many.
To be on the left of the Party as I was along with the bulk of the membership in my electorate meant that once you had followed through all the party forums to get a motion to conference it was defeated by the right who had the numbers. Disillusioned members just kept peeling off.
I think also that by the mid 90’s most couples were both working and it became more difficult for Party members to organise to get to meetings when there were kids to feed and help with homework etc.
I think that what I have heard from the Review that they are the kinds of issues they want to deal with.
Don’t get me wrong we had some really talented and committed people in our area and we all loved a fight we also had lots of fun but as they say there is a time for everything and everything in it’s time.
@988, I really don’t get it. I don’t like the idiot power brokers, I don’t like the way Rudd was dumped, but I have no really issue with the leadership either of Rudd or Julia.
What I have an issue with is the media, who were going to act like savages no matter who was at the top
Frank/Bemused: in the various country areas where I have lived, the average age of the Liberal Party booth workers is about 75.
They often stand on a booth by themselves all day, or might be relieved half way through the day. Once they finally drop off the twig, one wonders where the replacement workers will come from.
Incidentally, we are talking about safer than safe Liberal seats. If they can’t staff booths there, they must be really struggling elsewhere.
[I agree with Patrick Bateman #598. Gillard needs to something radical as she looks like she will lose the next election and will now need to consider her legacy.]
The only radical thing she needs to do is introduce the reforms. That’s radical.
[Mark Riley decided to use the approval figure from Nielsen and the two party preferred from Newspoll on Seven News. Am I wrong in thinking that is actually not the worst combo he could have used for the Government?]
madcyril
you are right. The better result is the 2pp newspoll and the approval from Nielsen.
Channel used the Nielsen 2pp.