Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Newspoll is slightly less bad for Labor than what they’ve been growing accustomed to, with the Coalition lead at 53-47. More on that as it comes to hand. UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Changes on the primary vote are slighter than the two-party shift (from 55-45 last time) might lead you to expect: Labor up a point to 33 per cent, Coalition down one to 44 per cent, Greens steady on 12 per cent. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are coming out of a trough, his approval up six to 42 per cent and disapproval down five to 48 per cent. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 38 per cent and steady on disapproval at 49 per cent. Better PM has tweaked from 46-37 in Gillard’s favour to 45-36.

We have also had today a status quo result from Essential Research, with two-party preferred at 54-46 (steady), the Coalition on 47 per cent (steady), Labor on 35 per cent (steady) and the Greens on 9 per cent (down one). Other questions related to respondents’ level of interest in federal politics and perceptions of the media, the latter being consistent with past surveys showing public broadcasters favoured over commercial, the media mistrusted generally but not to the same extent as politicians, and partisans of either side as likely as each other to consider the media biased against them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,270 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46”

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  3. [It was interesting to see how Windsor and Crean got along last night, and how Windsor had no rapport at all with the Sophie. BK had you warned Windsor off?!]
    vic
    Tony Windsor’s lack of respect and total dismissal of Sophie was plainly on view.
    Good judge, that man.

  4. Stop cherrypicking – ABC newsradio at 6am had headline Julia Gillard continues to hold lead in preferred prime minister stakes.

  5. Another account of the raid, from The Guardian

    [
    The aircraft – three or four, according to different reports – carried soldiers from the US navy’s elite Seal Team Six, a highly secretive counter-terrorism unit that works closely with the CIA. One hovered over the target house; al-Qaida militants fired on it with a rocket-propelled grenade. Then disaster struck: the chopper stalled and slumped towards the ground.

    Thousands of miles away in the US, officials watching on live video feeds had a heart-stopping moment. Some thought of “Black Hawk Down” – the infamous 1993 debacle in Somalia that precipitated America’s withdrawal from that country. But the pilot put his craft down safely and the Seals tumbled out, pressing towards their target, the 54-year-old Saudi fugitive who had eluded them for over a decade, now closer than ever.

    The Americans had been led there by one of Osama bin Laden’s most trusted men: a courier, first identified by detainees at Guantánamo Bay through his nom de guerre. He was said to be protege of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, alleged architect of the 9/11 attack. The Americans discovered his name four years ago, and discovered that he lived in the Abbottabad region with his brother two years ago.
    ]

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/02/osama-bin-laden-killed-abbottabad-raid

  8. bg

    I think it would be better if you watched it. It is now online. For some reason, I cant link it here via my iPad.

  9. This story describes the “risk” of interest rates faling to prevent the Aussie dolar going too high and damaging exports:
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/surging-currency-quells-rates-risk-20110502-1e57v.html

    To me this neatly illustrates why governments (and anyone else) should IGNORE money markets while considering economic policy issues. They are not neutral players: they are biased, and not in the national interest. For most lower interest rates are good, but not investors. They constantly try to talk markets up, including interest rates. Swan should learn to listen, smile, and disragard what they say.

  10. Victoria:
    We saw Windsor and Mirabella chatting outside quite amicably before the show. Sophie looked a little nervous but certainly didn’t appear as sour as she did on stage. As my companion said though, Mirabella doesn’t engage in community forums in Indi. She doesn’t look at ease among ‘her’ people.

  11. Madcyril,

    Thanks for that. That was an operation with multiple redundancies built in.

    One helicopter down. Still plenty of fire power to get through what the 6-12 folk inside had.

    Rocket propelled grenades where not what Osama needed. They needed heavy machine gun emplacements.

  12. Gillard to charm powerbrokers according to The Australian

    [
    BUSINESS leaders have been summoned tomorrow night for a dinner with Julia Gillard on the carbon tax.

    The dinner comes as the Prime Minister launches a charm offensive to quell rising anger over her climate change policy.

    The dinner at Ms Gillard’s Sydney residence, Kirribilli House, will be followed by one-on-one meetings with the business leaders on Thursday where they can air grievances they were not prepared to raise at the dinner.

    The Australian understands the guest list includes members of the energy sector, among them key players in Origin Energy and the explosives maker Orica. It is one of several Ms Gillard has scheduled to win support for the carbon tax.
    ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/pm-to-charm-on-carbon-tax/story-fn59niix-1226048722498

  13. Ta Vic

    I think you refer to this bit

    [DAVID KILCULLEN: This is a question the Pakistanis are really going to have to answer and a lot of people are asking the same question. I’ve actually been to Abbottabad a couple of times. It’s not only a large city – it has a population of about a million people – but it has a major Pakistani military base right there.

    And it does somewhat stretch credibility to think that it was right under the noses of the Pakistani military that this very major compound, eight times larger than any other building site in that part of Abbottabad, was sitting there for the last five or six years. I think this is a debate that’s going to play out in the next few days as the Pakistanis strive to answer some of those questions.]

    Pretty much matches what I was saying from the start.

  14. [There’s nothing to dance about this poll. But it’s a step in the right direction for Labor,]

    quote from speak of peebles last night

    come on it beats the neilson poll dont be so negative

  15. Abbottobad is a wealthy city.

    The compound is probably not visible from the main road, but it would stand out from any view from the many local lookouts.

    The neighbours are relatively wealthy. They would notice soemthing odd. They would notice the giant compound, where no one eneters and noone leaves. Enough of the neighbours would have military/police/government connections to raise suspicions.

  16. And when I say the property is surrounded by crops; these are green lush crops. The area is one of thse mid-altitude (~1000m) verdant and productive agricultural regions.

    The farmers who were his immediate neighbours would not be poor or ill-educated. They would be well off, respected, landowning folk.

  17. Well the Wangaratta Wahine (our Sophie) made a complete fool of herself last night. Crean snookered her with the announcement and Windsor proved in the words of Thatcher that ‘ the mans not for turning’ in spite of all persuasions.
    Th WW’s problem is that she is not a born and bred country person and this is a real problem if you hold a country seat. She can sprout the usual agrarian socialist and right wing mantras but she has not got Windsor’s attachment to the land.
    Her seat is as safe as houses but the seat should have someone with more affinity with the land.
    Windsor undestands that country people are basically socialists when all is said and done and expect a cancer clinic on every corner. They get cheaper housing, no road gridlocks yet expect all the benefits of a city. The NBN will be a boon for them especially if E health is a winner. They will never vote Labor in big numbers but if more independents like Windsor get in they will be able to get Labor outcomes eg NBN, better education and health facilities etc. A smart Labor policy would be to encourage more popular local identities to run as independents in these areas, run dead themselves and preference them.

  19. bg

    Yes, that was what I was referring to. sorry I could not link it myself. The apps on my iPad did not allow me too.

  21. tosp below

    [Something anybody looking at any massive shift in an opinion poll should be saying – including when the shift favours Labor.

    Anyway, I know this sounds weird but I feel a vibe like today is a sort of turning point for many things and things are gonna start dramatically changing]

    gosh peebes two different oppinions on the same page.

    but must say i felt it too, somthing in the air, a lifting off the shoulders moment

  22. Good morning, Bludgers.

    Methinks this lead cluster on http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ front ‘page’ nails it: Obama’s ‘President’s Speech’.. Best Birther Jokes.. Funny Sign Hack.. This Week In Crazy

    Though, Bludgers, you have to add the hype around Big Linz Tanner’s book to Oz’s equivalent. Oh, and Tom Uren (& not just for Hellfire Pass on Anazc Day – see below)

    A wee fact seems to have escaped last night’s Q&A reportage: Sophie managed to apply so much mascara and turned her head at such an angle that in many shots she seemed to sneer slitty-eyed down her nose at Tony Windsor, esp as he spoke! WOW. That was SO NOT a good look! Esp, when most people in A-W, surrounding area, and a great deal of rural Oz was watching! Nor did audience reaction – very audible moaning (esp at pink batts) as well as outright booing – add lustre to the Lib’s angry spin-regurgitation machine.

    You’re right about Q&A’s clear message being In regional Oz, vote in an Independent with, as a descant, If you’re in luck, you’ll get a hung parliament, and your needs become paramount

    In A-W’s case (for those too young to remember) there’s a background of Tom Uren (Minister) & Gough Whitlam’s vision of Rural Australia’s “Hubs” (I forget the actual term/ acronym used), of which A-W was the pilot project.

    [The Albury-Wodonga growth centre was established in 1974 following agreement between the Prime Minister and the Premiers of New South Wales and Victoria. Planning and development in the area is undertaken by the Albury-Wodonga Development Corporation, established by the Albury-Wodonga Development Act in New South Wales and similar corporations under Acts of both the Commonwealth and Victorian Parliaments. In addition, there are agreements executed between the three governments concerning the administration of the growth centre project. The legal structure consists of three statutory corporations, one each created under the legislation of the Commonwealth and the two States respectively. The three corporations have common membership, with the chairman of one being a deputy chairman of each of the other two. A ministerial council comprising the three responsible Ministers has oversight of the operation of the corporation.]
    http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/Prod/parlment/hansart.nsf/V3Key/LC19910925040

    For Hawke’s extension of the Whitlam programme see The issues at stake: The ‘Building Better Cities’ program 1991-96: a nation-building initiative of the Commonwealth Government

    PS Uren’s A-W was my first research assignment topic when I switched from Foreign Affairs to contemporary Oz policy & politics mid 1970s. Fascinating!

    BTW If anyone out there needs a similar continuing research topic (years of assignments & papers), I’d recommend Whitlam, Hawke & Gillard governments’ + Indies’ visions, approaches etc to rural city “hubs” … and the way a minority Gillard Gov & the Indies have given Tom U’s “outrageous” project such a key role.

  24. madcyril

    The govt’s strategy is slowly falling into place. I believe the govt are going to achieve a consensus soon enough on the carbon price.

  25. Story on Abbottabad from the Guardian

    [
    Residents of Abbottabad might be forgiven for feeling confused . When they went to bed, theirs was a tidy, bucolic little place – a town of soldiers and schools, tucked into the foothills of the Himalayas, just a two-hour drive north of Islamabad.

    When they awoke, it had turned into something dark and notorious: the rumbled hideout of the world’s most wanted man, killed in a hail of gunfire by American special forces soldiers just a few hours earlier.

    The target was a house that, from the outside, appeared to differ little from the other homes in this well-to-do neighbourhood: two-and three-storey buildings, not exactly mansions, but spacious and well-appointed.

    Two men stared at the square, three-storey house in a well-to-do suburb, now swarming with soldiers and police, trying hard to make sense of it all.

    ]

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/may/02/islamabad-hideout-pakistan-sandhurst

  28. fiz lovewd your q and a summary, just like a good old fashioned gather ing a town hall’ booing and all she must of realy felt out of place

  30. from other thread
    [The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 9:09 pm | Permalink

    GG, no. i do have a photograph of the other David Davis.]

    Thanks for that. It’s not altogether a bad thing. The other David Davis would be a bit uncomfortable about how this lot is shaping up. Ryan’s about the only one so far showing much credibility and even he is far from a world-beater.

  31. Catching up from last night.
    [Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 9:42 pm | Permalink

    Mirabella on QandA. I have to watch just to see her get her comeuppance from Windsor. Watching him skewer her slowly and oh so politely will be bittersweet.]

    SK: love your posts, but the imagery of ‘watching him skewer her slowly …’ was a bit mind-boggling, as was another post about her being beached.

    Still, it sounds like a good qanda. I was pleased about Crean doing well. Gillard’s shown a lot of confidence in him, when others might have thought he was past it, and he seems to be one of the better performers in a fairly good ministry.

  32. Vic

    that is an amazing blunt factual press conference -Anna Bligh style.

    [ MR. BRENNAN: People have been referring to this as hiding in plain sight. Clearly this was something that was considered as a possibility. Pakistan is a large country. We are looking right now at how he was able to hold out there for so long, and whether or not there was any type of support system within Pakistan that allowed him to stay there.

    We know that the people at the compound there were working on his behalf, and that’s how we ultimately found our way to that compound. But we are right now less than 24 hours after this operation, so we are talking with the Pakistanis on a regular basis now, and we’re going to pursue all leads to find out exactly what type of support system and benefactors that bin Laden might have had.]

    Its pretty clear that Pakistan have so much explaining to do.

  33. [The Obama mansion didn’t have Internet or even a phone which was somewhat suspicious.]

    Everything about the building was suspect, more than anything its size and massive walls. I can’t believe bin Laden was stupid enough to believe that the steps he took to increase his security wouldn’t in fact only draw attention to him. If you don’t want to be noticed in a neighbourhood, you do what everyone else does.

  34. Another report from on the ground in Abbottabad

    [
    Passers-by backed up Khizer’s claim. They said that the bin Ladens had lived in a “red zone” area, signifying exceptionally high security. Khizer said he regularly walked past the compound where the bin Laden family lived. “The neighbours said that they were backward” – a phrase often used by urban people in Pakistan to refer to visitors from the mountains. He added that people walking past the bin Laden compound often heard the sounds of women talking and children crying. On the street outside, we met a plumber, Mohammad Naseen Khan, who said he was working in the house next to where Osama bin Laden had lived. Neighbours had told him that “they were good people. They were generous in paying their bills. They always gave a little extra”.
    ]

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/8488173/Osama-Bin-Laden-killed-in-short-but-decisive-firefight-in-a-peaceful-garrison-town.html

  36. Crean is an old style Labor politician who tends to “say it as it is” unlike the thirty somethings who do not have a clue how to argue a position without defaulting to the scripted “on message” tripe.

    I thought both Crean and Windsor were brilliant last night and Mirabella was completely out of her depth and resorted to party “talking points” and staying on message. All of those “talking points” went over like a lead balloon.

    The response she got from that audience indicated to me that she had better start working a bit harder. People do not appreciate being treated like mugs!

    Overall I thought it was a very good Q&A. Good debate should be what it is all about and I thought it was.

  39. Dio @ 227

    [ The Obama mansion didn’t have Internet or even a phone which was somewhat suspicious ]

    I’m pretty sure they do have internet and phone at the Obama mansion -it’s called the White House.

  41. Mumble on the politics of budgets

    [
    Today’s Newspoll (tables here) has the federal government on 47 percent after preferences to the opposition’s 53.

    Better for Labor than last month’s 45 to 55, but Tony Abbott’s approval is back up to a pre-“shit happens” 42 and Julia Gillard’s 38 is her lowest.

    The next Newspoll, post-budget, will be widely examined for signs of a “bounce”.

    The federal budget, an aspirational document about next financial year (and beyond), is a huge media event and so largely designed with this in mind.

    Journalists flock to the capital for the lock up, commentators pick over “who wins and loses” but its main purpose, presentation-wise, is to showcase the government’s economic prowess.

    The chief aim of the production is to encourage voters to believe this government is a good economic manager.

    This year’s, handed down next week, will be number four for the Rudd-Gillard government.

    The equivalent in the last Labor government was in 1986, after the “banana republic” panic.

    That was an infinitely more confident government than the current one. It pushed a message into living rooms, pubs and clubs that harsh medicine was required and they were the ones to administer it.

    ]

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/budget_2011/

  42. [“Death By Water”, Or The Start Of A Fresh Flood Of bin Laden Conspiracy Theories?]

    Or both. He was picked up by the same Nautilus as rescued Harry Holt from a Beach Near Portsea. Since 1945, it’s been cruising the world under Nemo’s Capitancy with that Godwin bloke, his Frau & his top quantum scientists & spacecraft propulsion engineers. I believe Elvis is singer-in-residence. Nautilus, thanks to those scientists & engineers, travels at lightspeed in liquid hyperspace, so time stops when one comes aboard.

    SHHhhh! But the CIA fired one of those secret micro-darts into Osama’s brain through his eye, so the USA is tracking him, learning all Nautilus’s secrets. So the Great US of A hasn’t really handed over the Space Programme to what used to be the USSR; it didn’t have to build the LHC, and Repugs aren’t worried about the debt-crisis. USA won’t even have to pay patent fees! Osama’s Dart will provide all the needed data for free.

    Anyone for a nice cup of tea?

  45. No real change in Newspoll ( especially downwards) which, at this point in time, may be seen as ok for the government. Perhaps the AS issue, votes wise, is not as big a deal out there any more as Abbott would hope?

    Anyway, I will make a bold prediction and say I really believe that the budget will be the pressing of the “go button” for the government policy wise especially on the job creation and opportunity front. A theme which will be pushed by labor from here on in. Especially the opportunity angle. Health, NBN etc will be included in this theme of being the party of opportunity for Australians.

    The PM has been taking her time this year getting a number of policy issues bedded down and I think the budget will be the start of the big picture release of significant policy over the next few months. Some of which, I might add, is not yet out there in any form.

    On the other hand I could be completely wrong!

  48. Medicine cost rise dumped according to The Australian

    [
    BUDGET plans to increase the $5.40 patient charge for subsidised prescription medicine have been quashed as the government tries to minimise the impact of budget nasties on voters’ hip pockets.

    There has been intense speculation the government planned to increase the patient co-payment for medicines to raise several hundred million dollars as it strives to get the budget back into balance by 2013.

    The Australian has learnt the proposal was quashed because of fears it could spark a voter backlash and lead pensioners to stop their medication.
    ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/medicine-cost-rise-dumped/story-fn59niix-1226048719181

  49. [Mirabella doesn’t engage in community forums in Indi. She doesn’t look at ease among ‘her’ people.]

    I had that impression watching her last night. She talked about the electorate as if it was someone else’s seat.

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