Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Newspoll is slightly less bad for Labor than what they’ve been growing accustomed to, with the Coalition lead at 53-47. More on that as it comes to hand. UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Changes on the primary vote are slighter than the two-party shift (from 55-45 last time) might lead you to expect: Labor up a point to 33 per cent, Coalition down one to 44 per cent, Greens steady on 12 per cent. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are coming out of a trough, his approval up six to 42 per cent and disapproval down five to 48 per cent. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 38 per cent and steady on disapproval at 49 per cent. Better PM has tweaked from 46-37 in Gillard’s favour to 45-36.

We have also had today a status quo result from Essential Research, with two-party preferred at 54-46 (steady), the Coalition on 47 per cent (steady), Labor on 35 per cent (steady) and the Greens on 9 per cent (down one). Other questions related to respondents’ level of interest in federal politics and perceptions of the media, the latter being consistent with past surveys showing public broadcasters favoured over commercial, the media mistrusted generally but not to the same extent as politicians, and partisans of either side as likely as each other to consider the media biased against them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,270 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46”

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  1. [Whoops at 136 it should be $65m not B .. suffering from Hunts disease.]

    isnt also known as barnyard-sloppy syndrome

    where the brain fails to add up and spits forth made up numbers

    usually of the magnitude of 10 times?

  3. The SACA vote is a big win for SA Labor. They were going to have to pull a swifty if they didn’t get 75% yes so it is a big relief for them. Quite a few Libs supported a yes vote but it is still a win for Rann.

  5. [I think it is Dio I would want to see those numbers repeated before believing them though.]

    Something anybody looking at any massive shift in an opinion poll should be saying – including when the shift favours Labor.

    Anyway, I know this sounds weird but I feel a vibe like today is a sort of turning point for many things and things are gonna start dramatically changing, for better or worse. It’s just a weird vibe I had since I woke up this morning. If I wasn’t a skeptic, I’d swear the stars were saying something.

    Probably just a silly notion that got legs because of bin Laden’s death.

  6. [To Speak of Pebbles

    Posted Tuesday, May 3, 2011 at 12:17 am | Permalink

    I think it is Dio I would want to see those numbers repeated before believing them though.

    Something anybody looking at any massive shift in an opinion poll should be saying – including when the shift favours Labor.

    Anyway, I know this sounds weird but I feel a vibe like today is a sort of turning point for many things and things are gonna start dramatically changing, for better or worse. It’s just a weird vibe I had since I woke up this morning. If I wasn’t a skeptic, I’d swear the stars were saying something.

    Probably just a silly notion that got legs because of bin Laden’s death.
    ]

    A History Lesson

    Beazley was well in front of Howard in 2001.

    Then came Tampa and 9/11 🙂

    History is repeating itself.

  7. [

    BreakingNewsBreaking News

    by Sandra_Sully

    “I don’t feel as this is over. This war is still going on.” – Ex-NY Mayor Giuliani to Matt Lauer on Today show West Coast update

    16 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  9. [

    USABreakingNewsUSA Breaking News

    by IndiannaM

    URGENT NEWS:: USABreakingNews has confirmed from the House Intelligence Committee that Osama bin Laden is dead. The U.S. has his body now.]

  13. [THE Brumby government successfully pressured Victoria Police Chief Commissioner Simon Overland to release favourable and incomplete crime statistics four weeks before last November’s state election.

    The decision to release the data last October was a factor in last night’s sudden resignation of Deputy Commissioner Ken Jones.

    The Age can reveal senior advisers from the former government met with Mr Overland, Deputy Commissioner Kieran Walshe and Victoria Police media director Nicole McKechnie in October last year to urge police to expedite the release of data showing a reduction in assaults in Melbourne’s central business district.]

    Interesting.

    [It emerged in February that the set of statistics released by Mr Walshe in October last year did not include categories showing huge increases in assaults in car parks, fast food outlets and train stations.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/police-chief-heavied-on-eve-of-poll-20110502-1e551.html

  14. [

    @kellieconnollyKellie Connolly

    Shameful that A Current Affair led with the Logies when the world’s most wanted man is killed.

    5 hours agovia webFavoriteRetweetReply

    ——————————————————————————–

    Retweeted by DamienCooper and others]

  19. Well, what a day!

    QandA was great fun. The crowd had a really interesting vibe right from the outset – very enthusiastic. Before the show was televised each panel member took their seat and they got a good round of applause. I must admit that we gave a bit of a cheer for Creany and Windsor. A few people booed Windsor, but that seemed to fire folk up because when Sophie emerged she got a bigger dose of boos. Right from that point she put on her sourpuss face and she suffered the rest of the program because of it – it seemed to put the audience right off and just seemed petulant.

    Creany was great. Sophie was Sophie. A guy beside me called out wtte: “come move down to Indi Tony (Windsor)”. Sophie’s face proceeded to look like she’d been sucking lemons all day. The Brown Brothers girl is a bubblehead – her family’s vineyard at Milawa is slated to receive wireless broadband. The CSU guy and rural woman of the year were both good. Windsor was the star. As we were leaving there were lots of conversations going on wtte: Windsor has a point about independents, NBN will be terrific, isn’t it great that they’re building the cancer unit at Albury Base Hospital.

    Sorry I didn’t give any more coverage – I got busted with my last tweet after we were all meant to have our phone off. Then cranky man stood behind me for the show. I did get to smile at Mike Bowers though 🙂

    I’ll tell more of the story tomorrow – time for sleep.

  20. Are we about to see a new Bin Laden video entitled “The Reports Of My Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated”? In Arabic, of course.

  23. Guess what headline Their ABC is trumpeting on the latest Newspoll?

    “Tony Abbott’s approval rating soars six points” – pathetic.

  24. why are the “experts” are so surprise that Osama has been supported by some elements in the Pakis military and intelligence community and vice versa.

    Everyone in the Pakis military and intelligence community is in it for the money from both sides. It’s a very lucrative industry. Some probably play both sides.

  27. i will drink to that, that is one way of easing the pressure on AUD. AUD is 15% over valued:

    [SPECULATION is mounting that the Reserve Bank will cut the cash rate to offset the strong dollar’s impact, a week after Australia recorded the highest inflation figure since late 2008.

    However others argue the dollar’s rise, which reached $US1.10 yesterday, is based more on punting in global money markets than solid economic growth, and are still expecting the cash rate to rise in August.

    The chief investment officer at Evans and Partners, Mike Hawkins, believes an interest rate cut in July would help businesses outside the booming resources sector]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/surging-currency-quells-rates-risk-20110502-1e57v.html

  28. I didn’t know the man… unconcerned with his fate…

    [DAVID Hicks has released a statement on the death of Osama Bin Laden:

    “The death of Osama Bin Laden is a victory for the US and President Obama, and has delivered justice to many people around the world.

    “On a personal level, I didn’t know the man so I was unconcerned with his fate; however it is a relief that a man who has been responsible for the death of so many people has been put in a position where he can no longer cause any more harm.

    “What interests me, for it is mind boggling, is how he eluded capture for ten years and when was found he was living in a mansion in a city in Pakistan.”]
    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/australian-military-bases-embassies-and-airports-on-alert-for-revenge-attacks-in-the-wake-of-osama-bin-ladens-death/story-e6freuy9-1226048495456

    A slightly different position to this.

    [Osama bin Laden is ‘lovely’, said David Hicks

    DAVID Hicks described Osama bin Laden as “lovely” and trained with al-Qaeda a month before the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, a court was told.

    Australian Federal Police (AFP) also told a court in Adelaide today that Hicks could still be seen as a perceived threat to Australia.

    AFP lawyer Andrew Berger said Hicks had admitted taking part in four al-Qaeda training camps between January 2001 and August 2001 – a month before the terrorist attacks in the US.

    He also detailed letters from Hicks to his family in Adelaide during 2001.

    Mr Berger said in a May 2001 letter to family, Hicks wrote: “By the way I have met Osama bin Laden 20 times now, lovely brother, everything for the cause of Islam. The only reason the west calls him the most wanted Muslim is because he’s got the money to take action. “]

    http://www.news.com.au/features/osama-is-lovely-hicks-said/story-e6frflfr-1111115161629#ixzz1LEOE3zi9

  29. The biggest losers: PaKistan and Donald Trump

    The biggest winners: Obama and Osama

    The rest? they can farq themselves.

  30. The Rasmussen Daily Presdential Poll today has Obama’s approval at ~50%. But this poll was taken before the Osama announcement. We should get a good idea of the change of Obama’s fortunes by this time tommorow.

  34. Morning

    Now that Abbott’s approval ratings have soared, he is not going anywhere as leader. Not sure if this is good or bad.

    Fiz

    Very pleased to hear about your enjoyable experience on qanda last night. Crean and Windsor were excellent, and Sophie lived up to her name of Indi Puff Adder. She was nauseating.

  35. well well well three holes in the ground

    some one here is a clairvoyant, dont remember who it was,

    that the abc would only show abbott rating.

    well that rather shows them up for what they do,,,,,, doesnt it.

    we should all ring the abc this morning ask for their canberra office and tell them we actuly know what newspoll is

  36. Pebbles

    If you are about, I read your post. Interesting to say the least. I too had a strange vibe regarding the direction of things. I don’t know if it was because The PM had a very successful overseas trip and she is really starting to grow into her job, but there is definitely a change in the air, and it is not just that OBL has now been taken out. S

  38. Extract from a Lindsay Tanner piece in this morning’s SMH.
    [I received a blunt reminder of this reality late in my political career. I was about to come up against Senator Barnaby Joyce on the ABC show Q&A, at a time when he was already struggling in his brief period as shadow finance minister. Fairfax journalist Jane Cadzow was following Joyce around in order to write a major profile of him for the Good Weekend. My media adviser jokingly asked her why she wasn’t writing a profile of me, and she responded: “Lindsay’s too normal.” With those three words, she summed up the sideshow syndrome, and the decline of serious political coverage.]

  39. has any one got the get up link re the abc

    the fact they dont put the whole poll on the bottom of screen really tell them they are not telling us all the news like the charter says

  42. my say

    In light of the big news of Bin Laden, I doubt the majority of people are interested in Abbott’s approval ratings. Of course, this does not include the media and the coalition. But generally, it is not big news in the scheme of things. Anyhow we will have to see how the budget goes next week. It may benefit Abbott even more.

  43. [received a blunt reminder of this reality late in my political career. I was about to come up against Senator Barnaby Joyce on the ABC show Q&A, at a time when he was already struggling in his brief period as shadow finance minister. Fairfax journalist Jane Cadzow was following Joyce around in order to write a major profile of him for the Good Weekend. My media adviser jokingly asked her why she wasn’t writing a profile of me, and she responded: “Lindsay’s too normal.” With those three words, she summed up the sideshow syndrome, and the decline of serious political coverage.]
    from bks post and mr tanners book,

    may be journalists watch to much tv

  45. Just looking at the the osama mansion on google earth.

    Despite the 5 metre walls an pretty easy target for that type of operation. Its on gently sloping land and is surrounded by crops. Its a hundred metres to the nearest other building and there wouldnt be more than 20 homes within 200m. At one point within the compound there is 20 metres clearance between the building and the wall. So it would have been easy to drop the navy seals in.

    Once they were dropped in, Osama was trapped by his own defences.

  46. [ Anyhow we will have to see how the budget goes next week. It may benefit Abbott even more]

    who knows victoria, i doubt the msm are happy with this poll, and just as the poll re neilson suddenly faded, who knows about abbott,

    my point is though the abc dont realy show that they are giving us all the news or they would have the ppr,. vote at the bottom of the screan also and comment on the last neilson poll .

    sent a note to the minister office to remind them that the abc are supposed to tell us all the news not just what they want to tell us.

    but if they want to ignore the newspoll ignore the whole newspoll not just parts of it.

  47. It was interesting to see how Windsor and Crean got along last night, and how Windsor had no rapport at all with the Sophie. BK had you warned Windsor off?! 😉

  48. But the real question again for the Pakistanis is how did they not know he was here.

    A mansion that no one ever goes in and nobody ever goes out.

    It must have been staffed by Oompah Loompahs.

  49. my say

    You are probably right that the msm is not happy with this poll. Despite the constant attack on everything about this govt, their ratings actually improved.

  50. bg

    Did you watch Lateline last night? There was a counter terrorist expert discussing the question of Pakistan’s involvement etc.

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