Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46

GhostWhoVotes reports that the latest Newspoll is slightly less bad for Labor than what they’ve been growing accustomed to, with the Coalition lead at 53-47. More on that as it comes to hand. UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Changes on the primary vote are slighter than the two-party shift (from 55-45 last time) might lead you to expect: Labor up a point to 33 per cent, Coalition down one to 44 per cent, Greens steady on 12 per cent. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings are coming out of a trough, his approval up six to 42 per cent and disapproval down five to 48 per cent. Julia Gillard is down a point on approval to 38 per cent and steady on disapproval at 49 per cent. Better PM has tweaked from 46-37 in Gillard’s favour to 45-36.

We have also had today a status quo result from Essential Research, with two-party preferred at 54-46 (steady), the Coalition on 47 per cent (steady), Labor on 35 per cent (steady) and the Greens on 9 per cent (down one). Other questions related to respondents’ level of interest in federal politics and perceptions of the media, the latter being consistent with past surveys showing public broadcasters favoured over commercial, the media mistrusted generally but not to the same extent as politicians, and partisans of either side as likely as each other to consider the media biased against them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,270 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Coalition; Essential Research: 54-46”

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  1. [gordongrahamgordongraham

    Abbott is the greatest leader ever (ALP is up 2) is the gist of Dennis Shanahan’s article so far #Newspoll #auspol

    10 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

  2. FS:

    Norty.

    Orchestrating OBL’s death is a touch more high end than even Dennis Shanahan could hope to achieve.

  3. There’s nothing to dance about this poll. But it’s a step in the right direction for Labor, I guess. I guess time will tell whether it’s a bounce, oscillation or actual reclaimed ground. Still, it’s a good poll for the Coalition. Not the end of the world for Labor, but nowhere near out of the woods (if that will ever actually happen)

  4. Imacca,

    Sounds like the puff adder gets nocked around a bit??

    Even I felt like throwing in her towel.

  5. Not sure Finns. Dead set the Iranians would like for that to happen. Much confusion during and following an attack on a nuclear armed Muslim neighbor?? Would play merry hell with the supply lines into Afghanistan as well if anything went off while western troops are still there.

  6. Finns,

    It would be all so like General Custer at the Little Big Horn.

    Trying to avoid the tomahawks and dealing with millions of savage Indians.

  8. [kezza2

    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 11:20 pm | Permalink

    TONY DELROY’S NIGHTLIFE with Dennis Shanahan
    DS: tony abbott very effective on carbon tax, has strong third-party endorsements, unions, steel industry, woodside, rio – emphasis is impact on jobs, job security, cost of living – not on climate change, ta succeeding on these points in the debate. gillard has lost debate
    polling labor bad stuck in low 30s and ta not all that popular but point is that jg not all that popular either
    TD says but coalition plan is rubbish, but DS says gillard is stuck as well.
    DS: and the negative towards govt scheme working in ta’s favour
    no mention of actual poll figures.
    Then discussion on strong Aus economy, but according to DS that is working against us as well.
    Feel like ringing Tony Delroy and asking why the actual poll figures where the govt has closed the gap by 4 points.
    ]

    Paging Gus to call 1300 800 222 🙂

  9. Are the good people of Albury going to be as excited about the NBN when it turns out that instead of their Thurgoona campus teaching dentistry to the world, it will be Sydney Uni teaching the world and Thurgoona becoming a cinema or shearing shed?

  14. [victoria
    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 10:55 pm | Permalink
    confessions

    Lindsay Tanner and Malcolm Turnbull will be on qanda next week.]

    I seem to remember Tanner giving Turnbull a big serve in parliament a few years ago over the ‘Utegate’ affair. It was the final sitting day and Labor ministers including Rudd and Albo were queuing up to give it to Turnbull and Tanner got to close the show and didn’t hold back, he finished up with a warning for someone who had a new cat leaving Turnbull appealing to Harry which fell on deaf ears as Tanner finished up.

    Do politicians hold grudges I wonder ?

  15. [Frank Calabrese

    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 11:26 pm | Permalink

    112

    Gusface

    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 11:25 pm | Permalink

    frank

    it rang out

    It’s The Challenge. You won;t get on for Anus reassingment Surgery
    ]

    To clarify that’s for Messers Delroy and Shannahan who will be requiring that procedure 🙂

  16. [That was a good QandA for progressives. Tony Windsor was brilliant as usual and announcing the budget announcement was gold by Crean.]

    Really liked the way Windsor dismissed the OO’s idiotic cost campaign against the NBN by saying – ” we sold telstra for $50 billion and now we will replace it with something so much better for less” leaving dog faced Sophie looking even glumer than usual.

    Creans announcement was just the govt good news drip feed strategy leading up to the budget.

    Loved the tweet in response to the old ducks question about Coastal Electorates having all the influence and not regional values (and the inference that they are all “elites”)

    Someone tweeted – “The govt should supply Coasts for all regional electorates” My OTH and I lol’ed for a good minute – captured the essence of a lot of the feeling i was getting from the RoRers there. – Whats in it for us at the expense of everyone else.

  17. Hey Gusface and Frank
    Would you really
    and
    I didn’t know the number
    Thanks

    tack on to last line of my post

    “were not mentioned”

  20. [Gusface

    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

    frank

    damn

    btw does DS show up on delroy when newspoll is released or was this a special event?
    ]
    Not sure sometimes yes, sometimes no.

  22. I honestly can’t see how anyone living in the bush could ever vote for the Nats again given their opposition to the NBN. I am sure Windsor will get plenty of airtime over the next 2 1/2 years to hammer home the advantages of the NBN and the value of independants. Imagine Tone having to deal with Indies to pass any legislation AND a hostile Senate !

  24. [Really liked the way Windsor dismissed the OO’s idiotic cost campaign against the NBN by saying – ” we sold telstra for $50 billion and now we will replace it with something so much better for less” leaving dog faced Sophie looking even glumer than usual.]

    Thats a good line! Anyone know if the $50 B figure is accurate??

  28. night guys

    will listen to nightlife while getting to sleep and see if I can pick you out of all the irate callers over this shameful dennis shanahan omission. :):

    shit somebody else is now on talking about the latest newspoll talking up ta (oh, it’s what the papers say)
    matthew spencer from the australian – once again no mention of the actual poll figures, just ta’s improvement in approval ratings.

  29. Announcing good, popular policy on QandA.

    Is this the new ALP tactic to get around the MSM filter? If so it worked a treat!
    No wonder Jones wasn’t impressed 😀

  32. [
    GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes

    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Gillard 45 (-1) Abbott 36 (-1) #auspol

    49 seconds ago

    »

    GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes

    #Newspoll Abbott: Approve 42 (+6) Disapprove 48 (-5) #auspol

    1 minute agoFavoriteRetweetReply

    GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes

    #Newspoll Gillard: Approve 38 (-1) Disapprove 49 (0) #auspol

    3 minutes ago

    GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes

    #Newspoll Primary Votes: ALP 33 (+1) L/NP 44 (-1) GRN 12 (0) #auspol

    4 minutes ago]

  34. Frank, I didn’t see your earlier comments re Mission Australia but I’m sure you’re commenting from personal experience.
    I’m not the disability industry.
    I’m just one person, trying to do my best.
    I’m not in welfare.
    I’m not in employment.

  36. @ Think Big

    I thought the same thing when I heard Crean announce it and I bet he was cleared to do so. Sophie thought she was on a winner with the funding amount question until Crean said the full $65b requested would be provided.

  37. [134

    adelaidegirl

    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 11:45 pm | Permalink

    Frank, I didn’t see your earlier comments re Mission Australia but I’m sure you’re commenting from personal experience.
    I’m not the disability industry.
    I’m just one person, trying to do my best.
    I’m not in welfare.
    I’m not in employment.
    ]

    Howard set the rules – Labor will make thgem disability Friendly.

    Don’t believe the BS from the other “Interest Groups”.

  40. Well Gus, obviously not the Fib/Nats. Counting not their forte.

    Closer to $60 you reckon??

    Well, whats $10 B between friends? A few bill here, a few bill there and pretty soon your talking real money.

    Maybe the MSM will report this as an example of Tony Windsors fiscal ineptitude, with comment from Barnyard?? I’d like to see that! 🙂

    Still a good line i reckon.

  41. Primaries show that it’s all just statistical noise.

    I can see why they went with the Abbott slant. It’s a boring poll otherwise.

  42. [Paul_J

    Posted Monday, May 2, 2011 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    Don’t believe Abbott could jump 6 approval points in 2 weeks

    Try 4 weeks.

    There was that missing poll just prior to Easter.

  44. PaulJ
    [Don’t believe Abbott could jump 6 approval points in 2 weeks.]

    It’s amazing what he can achieve by making himself invisible.

  45. Your right Frank still 6 points is a lot but they have Jooles dropping 1 point so Tone picked up votes from the undecided or they rang some people who didn’t know anything about Abbott.

  47. http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2011/05/latest-on-the-osama-raid-tricked-out-choppers-live-tweets-possible-pakistani-casualties/#more-45710

    Interesting article on the raid that got OBL.

    Makes a good point:

    [Let’s be clear: in these heady hours, information is flying in all directions, and a lot of it is bound to be wrong. But several early reports, if true, offer a very murky window into possible direct Pakistani assistance in the killing of Bin Laden.]

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