Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The Australian has managed to keep its Newspoll result under wraps until publication, possibly because the highly unexpected result was being quintuple-checked to ensure nothing had gone amiss. The surprise is a big rebound for Labor after a string of poor shows, their primary vote up from an all-time low of 30 per cent to an almost respectable 36 per cent, and the 54-46 deficit recorded in the wake of the carbon tax announcement reversed to a 51-49 surplus (one wonders what metaphor Laurie Oakes might be able to employ this week). Labor has taken a chunk out of both the Coalition, down five points to 40 per cent, and the Greens, down three to 12 per cent (it seems the two-point post-carbon tax rise they recorded a fortnight ago was peculiar to that poll).

Newspoll seems to have hit upon a particularly bad sample for Tony Abbott, whose approval is down six to 33 per cent and disapproval up three to 54 per cent. However, this has not transferred into a huge improvement for Julia Gillard, who after a shocking result last week is up a point on approval to 40 per cent and down four on disapproval to 47 per cent. On preferred prime minister however she is almost back to where she was a month ago: over the past three polls it has progressed from 53-31 to 45-36 to 50-31.

While the figures are hard to believe at face value, this isn’t the first evidence to suggest that Labor has actually recovered slightly since the polls fell in behind 54-46 after the carbon tax announcement. The Morgan phone poll published on Friday, albeit that it came from a small sample, had the Coalition lead at just 51-49, and we have since seen the rolling fortnightly Essential Research track a point in Labor’s direction.

This post began life with a headline announcing the 53-47 to Coalition result in Essential Research, which I ran with as it appeared we wouldn’t be getting a Newspoll. It read thus:

Essential has the Coalition lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up a point to 36 per cent and the Coalition down one to 46 per cent. Tony Abbott has been thrown a curve ball with a question on where the Coalition stood on climate change: 33 per cent believed it opposed any action, 36 per cent believed it supported action and 29 per cent didn’t know. Opinion on the effectiveness of the carbon tax is evenly divided: 43 per cent believe it will make big polluters reduce emissions, 42 per cent believe it will not; 41 per cent believe it will increase investment in renewable energy, 38 per cent believe it will not. While 79 per cent believe a carbon tax will increase the price of electricity, 78 per cent expect it will increase anyway (though presumably not by as much).

The poll also records a slump in support for nuclear power, to 35 per cent from 43 per cent late last year, with opposition up from 37 per cent to 53 per cent – and strong opposition up from 16 per cent to 32 per cent. The level of support for a full withdrawal from Afghanistan is now up to 56 per cent from 47 per cent in October, a steady 30 per cent support the commitment at the current level, and only 5 per cent (down from 10 per cent) believe it should be increased.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,659 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Lizzie,

    Absolutely. I feel that his recent reporting shows a hint of feeling obligated to look anywhere for balance. It’s as though he can’t find anything in the “common sense” barrel so goes looking elsewhere. It’s just balance for balance sake.

    You’re damned if you do, damned if you don’t at the ABC. If you go after the coalition (even if they obviously botch something) you just get dismissed as a “filthy leftie ABC Labor stooge”.

    If you go soft on the coalition, well.. um… anchor your own show and get to interview some lovely people from the IPA or OO.

    Ok so maybe you’re just damned if you do.

    P.S.. using the word stooge made me sad. Why do Conservatives LOVE words like Stooge, Cronies, Crooks, Faceless Men, Puppets etc… Blah! /whinge

  2. [Hard to tell. I’ve heard each side accuse the other of that at the same time before. Barnaby is trying to get Conroy to explain why the price per megabit varies between fibre, wireless and satellite, when they had been led to believe (he claims) that all would be the same price. It sounds legitimate, but he’s been on this 30-40 minutes now, claiming that Conroy won’t answer.]

    I don’t know how that sounds legitimate. It’s like saying a car, motorbike and bus should all cost the same. Sure they all get you from A to B, but in very, very different ways.

  3. [Uhlmann may be trying too hard to cancel out the preceived bias based on him being married to a sitting ALP member.

    To be honest, until recently I thought Uhlmann was good at giving BOTH sides a kicking in equal measure (which is what I want out of our Journos). Sure he’s been showing up on the Conservative side of the street more often in recent times, but I doubt he’s some closet Liberal Party stooge or whatever.]

    He is a right winger. This is no secret. He writes opinion pieces for conservative publications. He stood as a candidate in the ACT for a right-wing party. He’s an ex-seminarian like his buddy, Abbott. Abbott nominated Uhlmann as his preferred moderator for the second Leaders’ Debate of the federal election campaign.

    It matters not a damn the politics of who he’s married to. Men are Mars, women from Venus…

  4. nothing even vaguely happened over the last few days at Fukushima that is worrying, and plenty that is good

    30% good outcome
    68% mild/moderate ongoing effects (at least a few months of import bans from some countries)
    2% bad – every reactor is under control. No dangerous radiation outside plant is of any significant level. The water stuff was a giant furphy (oh no! tiny dose over infant long term consumption limit, with half life of 8 days! No longer elevated by the next day! Report that babies are dying!!!!!)

    there are a few on here who are getting a disturbing amount of schadenfreude-esque joy from japan and libya

  5. [I don’t know how that sounds legitimate. It’s like saying a car, motorbike and bus should all cost the same. Sure they all get you from A to B, but in very, very different ways.]

    It’s legitimate if they’d been led to believe otherwise. On the same theme, I remember that the government had agreed in the deal with the indies that the wholesale price in regional areas would be the same as in the cities. Since regional areas are more likely to need wireless or satellite, then by extension of that deal they shouldn’t have to pay more.

  6. Another stupid comment from Keneally

    [“If polls today are correct and Mr O’Farrell is slated for victory it will be a victory without a mandate, because he’s not telling people what it is he will do.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/25/3173799.htm

    No mandate when he is likely to have twice the numbers of seats as Labor?

    I hope that Federal Labor reject any move from Keneally to be transported into a safe Federal seat.

  7. I wouldn’t take that remark too seriously, Tom H. It’s a run-of-the-mill campaign-trail remark, however absurd it might be.

  8. [I remember that the government had agreed in the deal with the indies that the wholesale price in regional areas would be the same as in the cities]

    That all depends whether that wholesale price they were talking about was on a per Megabit basis or just for the service. The bandwidth of wireless is nowhere near fibre, so you simply can’t get the same number of Gigs out of wireless in a month. You can’t offer a 10TB monthly plan on a wireless service. It’s apples and oranges.

  11. SK

    Congratulate your son on his milestone birthday. My nephew actually turned ten yesterday, and he is so pleased to have reached double digits!!!

  12. [Tom Hawkins
    Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 2:57 pm | Permalink
    Another stupid comment from Keneally

    “If polls today are correct and Mr O’Farrell is slated for victory it will be a victory without a mandate, because he’s not telling people what it is he will do.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/03/25/3173799.htm

    No mandate when he is likely to have twice the numbers of seats as Labor?

    I hope that Federal Labor reject any move from Keneally to be transported into a safe Federal seat.]

    I really couldn’t careless whether or not see gets into the federal parliament but the mandate comment isn’t silly – it is just governments like to believe they can do what they want (core and non-core springs to mind) and oppositions try to hold them to what they have promised (Tony springs to mind). The truth is almost certainly in the middle (ie I want a govt to do more / less than they promise as appropriate at the time.

    As for the commonwealth and NSW sitting down to talk train sets it won’t be necessary conservative govts don’t do public infrastructure.

  18. had a chat with my parents. They both said that Abbott yesterday in QT was an idiot. My mum said that her impression of Abbott’s behaviour towards the PM has a lot to do with her being a woman. I was amazed that my dad agreed.

  20. Also, my parents had a friend over at the time, and he was disgusted in Abbott’s behaviour as well. This man said that Abbott is mentally unstable.
    So, I guess it isn’t just we PB’s that see this behaviour as being ott.

  21. [4617
    Gos
    Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 3:09 pm | Permalink
    KK has to be called on that rubbish though. labor in NSW has handed them the mandate and have to suck it up.
    ]

    Absolute tosh. That they have a right to govern is absolute tosh – how they govern is a matter for them and nsw voters. If they have truly made no promises then they have no mandate to do or not do anything inparticular. Voters and the opposition are entitled to be shocked and complain about every decision outside of the confines of wha they have undertaken to do. Eventually the quite silly people of nsw will get to chose again.

  25. Dario, you could be right. I don’t know the issue well enough.

    Mickmack, good question.

    Gillard, shortly before the last election, said that Workchoices would be back on Monday if Tony won. That was pretty brainless too. Candidates say increasingly desperate things with only a day or two to go. You can hold it against them too much.

  28. Minor bit of argy over the mining tax.

    [
    THE Greens have warned they will not rubber-stamp the Gillard government’s mining tax, saying the right of the states to increase resources royalties should be preserved.

    Greens leader Bob Brown said it was time for the Senate to reassert its position as the states’ house, predicting “unusual alliances” between the Greens and the West Australian government to prevent a cap on state revenue-raising abilities.

    Resources Minister Martin Ferguson earlier attacked the Greens as “basket-weavers”, challenging the party to back responsible taxation measures rather than crippling the economy.

    However, he said he expected the Greens would back the tax in the end.

    “They’ll play to the gallery, they’ll move their amendments but then they’ll let the government have its way,” he said.

    Senator Brown said the basket-weaver label was a “tired old epithet”, suggesting Mr Ferguson was “feeling fragile” for caving in to big miners in a compromise over the tax.
    ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/bob-brown-says-greens-wont-rubber-stamp-labors-mining-tax/story-fn59niix-1226028146105

  33. [Gillard, shortly before the last election, said that Workchoices would be back on Monday if Tony won. That was pretty brainless too.]

    It was accurate, though she might have spoken a touch figuratively.

  35. victoria @4629,

    For what it is worth I remember Bob Brown saying a couple of months ago wttte that the greens believe the MRRT should be stronger but will not bring the government down over it as the only other option is for no tax at all.

    So one could interpret that as one wants but mine is yes we will have some argy bargy but will pass the tax in the end.

    Good for the greens and labor to get it on from time to time anyway.

  37. Doyley

    if the Greens want a price on carbon and a mining tax, they need to get on with Labor. No chance of anything happening otherwise. If the coalition were in govt. none of this would be on the table.

  38. [ victoria
    Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 3:06 pm | Permalink
    SK

    Congratulate your son on his milestone birthday. My nephew actually turned ten yesterday, and he is so pleased to have reached double digits!!!
    ]

    Thanks, Victoria, I will. He is pretty chuffed, I must say.

  39. victoria @4637,

    Exactly.

    Good from time to time for both parties to have some space and sunlight between them as well.

  40. Tom Hawkins – I really doubt that many in NSW are aware of any of O’Farrells policies.

    The libs will have a mandate but what that actually means is another thing. It is just water off a ducks back that they refused to submit their budget costings etc – barely any comment.

    If they control the upper house, it might just be a silver lining from a labor viewpoint and speed up their return to opposition.

    Even if they do not win the upper house – they will still overstep the mark, sooner or later, such is the beast.

  41. [will the OZ being reporting this anytime soon?]
    The Oz doesn’t “report” very much victoria, it’s more like “guided information management”.

  42. For what it is worth I remember Bob Brown saying a couple of months ago wttte that the greens believe the MRRT should be stronger but will not bring the government down over it as the only other option is for no tax at all.

    I’m tipping the first state that increases mineral royalties will find the same amount somehow deducted from their commonwealth grants.

  43. [dave

    Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 3:44 pm | Permalink

    For what it is worth I remember Bob Brown saying a couple of months ago wttte that the greens believe the MRRT should be stronger but will not bring the government down over it as the only other option is for no tax at all.

    I’m tipping the first state that increases mineral royalties will find the same amount somehow deducted from their commonwealth grants.
    ]

    Come on Down Colin Barnett 🙂

  45. Martin Ferguson on RN this morning was basically saying what the Greens do is up to to them – they either get a mining tax or they don’t. He threw in a couple of mild slaps too as is the government’s wont because it heads off the lazy “the Greens are running the government” meme.

    He was also quite relaxed about Colin Barnett’s comments – basically saying he expected Barnett to make a public fuss but hinted he respected that and thought infrastructure sweeteners and certainty for industry would mean WA played along.

    Ignored Fran Kelly’s pathetic loaded questions ther than one derisory “I don’t accept your premise”.

  48. nappin@4641

    The Oz doesn’t “report” very much victoria, it’s more like “guided information management”.

    Agreed – the very telling comment by Chris Mitchell (reproduced in part below) says it all, really – the OO no longer even makes a pretence of unbiased reporting – it acknowledges it is a company with an agenda … and by jeez do they push it hard!

    … We at The Australian try to develop our own exclusive stories and push our agenda forward so that the evening news follows us rather than the reverse.

    Chris Mitchell

    Editor-in-Chief

    The Australian

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/contentmakers/2011/03/25/chris-mitchell-of-the-australian-responds/

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