Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The Australian has managed to keep its Newspoll result under wraps until publication, possibly because the highly unexpected result was being quintuple-checked to ensure nothing had gone amiss. The surprise is a big rebound for Labor after a string of poor shows, their primary vote up from an all-time low of 30 per cent to an almost respectable 36 per cent, and the 54-46 deficit recorded in the wake of the carbon tax announcement reversed to a 51-49 surplus (one wonders what metaphor Laurie Oakes might be able to employ this week). Labor has taken a chunk out of both the Coalition, down five points to 40 per cent, and the Greens, down three to 12 per cent (it seems the two-point post-carbon tax rise they recorded a fortnight ago was peculiar to that poll).

Newspoll seems to have hit upon a particularly bad sample for Tony Abbott, whose approval is down six to 33 per cent and disapproval up three to 54 per cent. However, this has not transferred into a huge improvement for Julia Gillard, who after a shocking result last week is up a point on approval to 40 per cent and down four on disapproval to 47 per cent. On preferred prime minister however she is almost back to where she was a month ago: over the past three polls it has progressed from 53-31 to 45-36 to 50-31.

While the figures are hard to believe at face value, this isn’t the first evidence to suggest that Labor has actually recovered slightly since the polls fell in behind 54-46 after the carbon tax announcement. The Morgan phone poll published on Friday, albeit that it came from a small sample, had the Coalition lead at just 51-49, and we have since seen the rolling fortnightly Essential Research track a point in Labor’s direction.

This post began life with a headline announcing the 53-47 to Coalition result in Essential Research, which I ran with as it appeared we wouldn’t be getting a Newspoll. It read thus:

Essential has the Coalition lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up a point to 36 per cent and the Coalition down one to 46 per cent. Tony Abbott has been thrown a curve ball with a question on where the Coalition stood on climate change: 33 per cent believed it opposed any action, 36 per cent believed it supported action and 29 per cent didn’t know. Opinion on the effectiveness of the carbon tax is evenly divided: 43 per cent believe it will make big polluters reduce emissions, 42 per cent believe it will not; 41 per cent believe it will increase investment in renewable energy, 38 per cent believe it will not. While 79 per cent believe a carbon tax will increase the price of electricity, 78 per cent expect it will increase anyway (though presumably not by as much).

The poll also records a slump in support for nuclear power, to 35 per cent from 43 per cent late last year, with opposition up from 37 per cent to 53 per cent – and strong opposition up from 16 per cent to 32 per cent. The level of support for a full withdrawal from Afghanistan is now up to 56 per cent from 47 per cent in October, a steady 30 per cent support the commitment at the current level, and only 5 per cent (down from 10 per cent) believe it should be increased.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,659 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Finished my research into’s PTMD and his /her followers’ views about the use of a defence to a complaint of sexual assault based on what the victim was wearing.

    Could have taken WWP’s assertions as gospel but who would? Here are some samples which demonstate that the vice of cross-examination on sexual history and communications with counsellors has been the focus of law reform throughout Australia (along with unconsciouness). If the victim’s clothes defence were an issue it has not attracted the attention of the law reformer.

    Have a read WWP, you might learn something – you will need the red mist to lift first:

    Evidence Act (WA) s19A-M, s36A-C
    http://www.aifs.gov.au/acssa/pubs/issue/i4.html
    http://www.alrc.gov.au/publications/20.%20Matters%20Outside%20the%20Uniform%20Evidence%20Acts/rape-shield-laws

    When you have mustered enough internal fortitude to slip out of the conga line, WWP, you might want to apologise for the cowardly slur about me joking on the subject matter.

  5. The Herald Sun have updated their website, and for the life of me I can’t find a link to Andrew Bolt’s blog on the front page

    There is a link to one of his articles, but on the old layout, there were several links to his blog

    I wonder how long it will take to rectify this travesty 😀

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/

  7. blue-green:

    Just on your new blog debunking carbon sequestration. You might not think it in scope, but Boerwar (I think it was BW) has had some good comments here debunking the tree planting aspect of the Lib policy. Perhaps he could be persuaded to write a post for you about it?

  8. [This is the URL of Uhlmann’s piece if Bludgers would like to leave comments…]

    I left one.

    Uhlmann will have no option but to resign when he reads it.

  9. [Barnaby says in the Senate that he loves Sky News, and that “Keiran and Speersie” are great blokes.]

    I shall probably regret asking this, but what on earth do Gilbert and Speers have to do with the NBN? Yes, yes, I know it’s Barnaby, but still….

  10. [My opinion is based on the series of statements made by regional leaders and by my knowledge of Internation Relations. It would be an unpredecented coup if it did occur and would signal a mass change in the diplomatic culture of the region.]

    And why would this be so far fetched? All these places are suffering as transit points. I am sure they’d happily throw the problem to others, especially if Aust pays most of the freight.

  11. I thought Fukushima was starting to come under control, when really it looks more like the Japanese authorities are conditioning the public gradually to a worsening situation –

    Fukushima Raised To Level 6 On INES Scale: Now Officially More “Serious” Than 3 Mile Island

    According to Asahi Shimbun which is quoting the Japan NRC, the Fukushima event has just surpassed Three Mile Island in terms of seriousness, and has been upgraded from Level 5 “Accident with Wider Consequences” to Level 6 “Serious Accident.”

    Only Chernobyl is a Level 7 event. We believe Fukushima should get there within 2 weeks as ever more of the current devastation becomes public.

    Of course, all of this is a paper-pushing formality.

    What isn’t, are people who may be developing serious diseases as the government continues to misrepresent the severity of the situation.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/fukushima-raised-level-6-ines-scale-now-officially-more-serious-3-mile-island

  12. [blue-green:

    Just on your new blog debunking carbon sequestration. You might not think it in scope, but Boerwar (I think it was BW) has had some good comments here debunking the tree planting aspect of the Lib policy. Perhaps he could be persuaded to write a post for you about it?]

    Happy to do so. But as opposed to the soil stuff/some tree stuff would havebeen OK. The science is fine, it can be done in practice for the right price, but the Nats put som many restrictions on it- that it was efgfectively killed off as a real option.

    But I would be happy to relook into it.

  15. blue-green:

    Yes, from memory his comments centred on the effectiveness of what was proposed to abate emissions, given the riders imposed by the Nats.

  16. In 1968, in Goodburn v Thomas Cotton Ltd[16] Edmund Davies LJ, speaking of possible remarriage by a widow, said:

    “She may marry a shirker, or a man with … extravagant personal tastes, or perhaps a man who subsequently walks out on her.”

    That’s very old case law; overridden, for all states, by the last decade or so’s High Court rulings. These were significant not only in the specific case (or insurance in general), but in that they established at least two principles: a general one that any Westminster law not repealed by a state at the time of Federation remained law thereafter until it was repealed – including many forgotten or simply overlooked; and a specific one that in cases where the law had not been repealed, changed community values could override it.

    The former general principle is one I’m unlikely to forget, as I used it in relation to the height of chimneys above the highest point of the roof-line of houses that might be affected by chimney smoke (either side, across the road, at the back etc). The earliest specifically Westminster example we found occurred in legislation signed into law as Charles II February 1667, most the result of the Great Fire of London (started by a spark from the chimney of Thomas Farynor’s bakeshop in Pudding Lane).

    What followed were networks of laws appearing in different contexts at different times; many obscure enough never to have been repealed. Fire-risk mitigation legislation we expected (and there’s way more than one imagines), but relevant legislation went well beyond them. We found odd examples of it in the “never over the property boundaries” (overhanging branches is probably the best known example) and “an Englishman’s house is his castle” types in legislation on clean air and ability to open windows, laws covering chimney sweeps (once the link between soot and they type of cancer they contracted was established – George III … forget the rest). It occurred in obscure elements of legislation which was really ratification of individual and group (Guilds, Councils, etc) decisions – and many of them led backwards through much earlier lines of legal and administrative decisions. Had those concerned not caved in, we’d probably have found many more. And many of them – and other “very handy” laws – had never been formally repealed.

    BTW: AS one who took part in protests (inc letters-to-the-Premiers/ ministers/ law societies/ editors writing) I assure you “They’re asking for it” because of “the way they dressed” defences were not rarities.

  17. [And why would this be so far fetched? All these places are suffering as transit points. I am sure they’d happily throw the problem to others, especially if Aust pays most of the freight.]

    Jen, most other nations in the region are affected worse than ours; its just only in our country do we make a big deal about it. Its just par for the course elsewhere.

    But it would be pretty unprecendented co-operation.

    And at this stage (without any serious drafts of formal agreements) the best case for aus is that parties agree to discuss the regional processing centre.

  18. [When you have mustered enough internal fortitude to slip out of the conga line, WWP, you might want to apologise for the cowardly slur about me joking on the subject matter.]

    Really tough choice – accept what you say given what I’ve observed today or rely on my law lecturer who I think was on or had just come off the law reform commission at the time. Oh gee which will I chose.

    But yes I do apologize for thinking you were joking – what you are doing is much worse and much more disgusting.

  19. BK,

    Sorry for the late response, I have been baking a chocolate mud cake for my son who turns ten today.

    Yes, he did get in trouble for that remark. I have been hunting down references both in the news and in Hansard. Then cross referencing the definitions and implications. I have only done a little bit of research but already it does not look like the man has not yet evolved to a point where the good woman should be anywhere except the kitchen and the bedroom.

  20. I suppose from a debunking point of view, if the tree plantings aren’t going to do anything then the abatement (cost) will have to be made up (found) from elsewhere. Just another way in which the ‘direct action’ is just a fig leaf rather than a genuine alternative to a carbon price.

  21. [WeWantPaul

    Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 2:17 pm | Permalink

    When you have mustered enough internal fortitude to slip out of the conga line, WWP, you might want to apologise for the cowardly slur about me joking on the subject matter.

    Really tough choice – accept what you say given what I’ve observed today or rely on my law lecturer who I think was on or had just come off the law reform commission at the time. Oh gee which will I chose.

    But yes I do apologize for thinking you were joking – what you are doing is much worse and much more disgusting.
    ]

    and Shellbell had the Gall to attack I think Evan14 for calling Ken Wyatt the LIberal’s “Token Aboriginal”.

    Pots and Kettles come to mind here.

  22. [According to Asahi Shimbun which is quoting the Japan NRC, the Fukushima event has just surpassed Three Mile Island in terms of seriousness, and has been upgraded from Level 5 “Accident with Wider Consequences” to Level 6 “Serious Accident.”

    Only Chernobyl is a Level 7 event. We believe Fukushima should get there within 2 weeks as ever more of the current devastation becomes public.]

    just waiting for soul and co to tell us everything is under control

  23. [but what on earth do Gilbert and Speers have to do with the NBN?]

    Actually, Conroy last night invited Barnaby to debate those irrelevant points I mentioned this morning on Sky News or elsewhere, just don’t ask irrelevant questions about the bill before the Senate. So Barnaby brought up the invitation to make the point that such matters need to be thrashed out now, i.e., I love Sky News, but…

  24. Confessions

    At a govt sponsored coil-carbon workshop the other day, one scientist obviously frustrated at how they are being pushed said:

    [The only way we can get build up permanent soil carbon is: If we grow a forest, chop it down and bury the logs in the ground]

  26. [BTW: AS one who took part in protests (inc letters-to-the-Premiers/ ministers/ law societies/ editors writing) I assure you “They’re asking for it” because of “the way they dressed” defences were not rarities.
    ]

    No informed honest intelligent person could seriously question it.

  28. The nuclear rating relate to : the level of physical damage. how much people are put out by it and how many people are made ill.

    THe difference between 6 and 7 is massive. And it might of just been put up from 5 to 6 because a few workers got radiation illness. It might have nothing to do with any more emerging reactor problems.

  33. Uhlmann may be trying too hard to cancel out the preceived bias based on him being married to a sitting ALP member.

    To be honest, until recently I thought Uhlmann was good at giving BOTH sides a kicking in equal measure (which is what I want out of our Journos). Sure he’s been showing up on the Conservative side of the street more often in recent times, but I doubt he’s some closet Liberal Party stooge or whatever.

  34. b-g:

    Public health researchers and practitioners probably felt the same way when the push back against curbing smoking was getting going.

  37. On the other hand Shellbell

    http://char.txa.cornell.edu/lennon.htm

    http://www.nytimes.com/1990/06/03/us/nature-of-clothing-isn-t-evidence-in-rape-cases-florida-law-says.html

    http://www.copfs.gov.uk/Victims/RevSexOff2/SOCRAPE

    While US examples are obviously not directly relevant to the Australian legal system, the cultural hold US TV and film has on Austrlaian culture does I suggest make them relevant.

    Sadly, research in the UK and elsewhere suggests the “she asked for it dressing like that” attitude is very prevalent, especially, oddly enough, among women.

  39. [Gusface Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 2:20 pm | Permalink
    According to Asahi Shimbun which is quoting the Japan NRC, the Fukushima event has just surpassed Three Mile Island in terms of seriousness, and has been upgraded from Level 5 “Accident with Wider Consequences” to Level 6 “Serious Accident.”

    Only Chernobyl is a Level 7 event. We believe Fukushima should get there within 2 weeks as ever more of the current devastation becomes public.

    just waiting for soul and co to tell us everything is under control]

    Compadre, i said on Friday afternoon 2:35pm, Never Trust The Japanese.

  40. Desert Fox1939 RE: 4484

    Put up or shut up, who was holding the placard ? How are they related to Get Up or the ALP in any way ?

  41. Sossman

    I think Uhlmann has somehow bought the idea that “believing” in climate change is showing leftie bias. Unfortunately he’s been going to the wrong shop to buy his ideas – the men’s outfitters run by Mark Scott, head salesman Andrew Bolt..

  42. confessions:
    [More filibustering then?]

    Hard to tell. I’ve heard each side accuse the other of that at the same time before. Barnaby is trying to get Conroy to explain why the price per megabit varies between fibre, wireless and satellite, when they had been led to believe (he claims) that all would be the same price. It sounds legitimate, but he’s been on this 30-40 minutes now, claiming that Conroy won’t answer.

  43. [Ahh Peter Cosgrove – Howie’s favourite Col Blimp.]

    Cosgrove was on a short list to be appointed GG by Howard. Just imagine that nerdy Kevin Rudd appointing a woman instead! The humiliation of it all.

  46. On the question of the skinny jeans debate this is how Grattan is insinuating “she asked for it”‘

    On Breakfast this morning with Fran Kelly she said the following “both leaders are unplugged and screaming at each other” “like dogs flying at each other”.

    Grattan then said in a hardly coherent way that Gillard was inconsistant because “Gillard said she had never criticised the placards and wasn’t criticising them now and then said “sexist words” ”

    Not sure what she meant by the last statement but obviously she is trying to muddy the water and imply they are both as bad as each other. Tripe.

  48. [I left one. Uhlmann will have no option but to resign when he reads it.]

    So did I BB but I think it may be the moderator’s afternoon nap time because the page hasn’t been updated for nearly two hours. Either that or I’m still blacklisted at the ABC sites.

  49. [BK,

    Just read back over what I wrote. Sorry about the garbled mess.

    *** Face plant***]
    No worries Kidette. It’a all about kid’s birthday party deadlines.

  50. triton:

    I’m sure our esteemed press gallery will get to the bottom of the coalition’s concerns and diligently and accurrately report on the matter for us.

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