Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The Australian has managed to keep its Newspoll result under wraps until publication, possibly because the highly unexpected result was being quintuple-checked to ensure nothing had gone amiss. The surprise is a big rebound for Labor after a string of poor shows, their primary vote up from an all-time low of 30 per cent to an almost respectable 36 per cent, and the 54-46 deficit recorded in the wake of the carbon tax announcement reversed to a 51-49 surplus (one wonders what metaphor Laurie Oakes might be able to employ this week). Labor has taken a chunk out of both the Coalition, down five points to 40 per cent, and the Greens, down three to 12 per cent (it seems the two-point post-carbon tax rise they recorded a fortnight ago was peculiar to that poll).

Newspoll seems to have hit upon a particularly bad sample for Tony Abbott, whose approval is down six to 33 per cent and disapproval up three to 54 per cent. However, this has not transferred into a huge improvement for Julia Gillard, who after a shocking result last week is up a point on approval to 40 per cent and down four on disapproval to 47 per cent. On preferred prime minister however she is almost back to where she was a month ago: over the past three polls it has progressed from 53-31 to 45-36 to 50-31.

While the figures are hard to believe at face value, this isn’t the first evidence to suggest that Labor has actually recovered slightly since the polls fell in behind 54-46 after the carbon tax announcement. The Morgan phone poll published on Friday, albeit that it came from a small sample, had the Coalition lead at just 51-49, and we have since seen the rolling fortnightly Essential Research track a point in Labor’s direction.

This post began life with a headline announcing the 53-47 to Coalition result in Essential Research, which I ran with as it appeared we wouldn’t be getting a Newspoll. It read thus:

Essential has the Coalition lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up a point to 36 per cent and the Coalition down one to 46 per cent. Tony Abbott has been thrown a curve ball with a question on where the Coalition stood on climate change: 33 per cent believed it opposed any action, 36 per cent believed it supported action and 29 per cent didn’t know. Opinion on the effectiveness of the carbon tax is evenly divided: 43 per cent believe it will make big polluters reduce emissions, 42 per cent believe it will not; 41 per cent believe it will increase investment in renewable energy, 38 per cent believe it will not. While 79 per cent believe a carbon tax will increase the price of electricity, 78 per cent expect it will increase anyway (though presumably not by as much).

The poll also records a slump in support for nuclear power, to 35 per cent from 43 per cent late last year, with opposition up from 37 per cent to 53 per cent – and strong opposition up from 16 per cent to 32 per cent. The level of support for a full withdrawal from Afghanistan is now up to 56 per cent from 47 per cent in October, a steady 30 per cent support the commitment at the current level, and only 5 per cent (down from 10 per cent) believe it should be increased.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,659 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  6. Victoria

    Exactly. And the fact that Julie Bishop thinks nothing of the placards and can sit behind a man who was ranting such a personal and vicious attack on the PM is appalling.

    Julia is so brave and strong. I could never cop the abuse that she does.

  9. blackdog

    JBishop’s body language yesterday was not very good for the Rabbott. A few sitting behind him were quite uncomfortable. That was my reading of it.

  10. Is there a definitive list of the coalition MPs that fronted the rally? It seems like there weren’t that many. More of a lib-right/national rump- a subset of Tony’s base.

  12. SkyNews has now added a line wtte …some Liberal moderates reportedly unhappy with Mr Abbott for associating himself with those signs…

    Poor things. So, what are they going to do about it?

  14. Boerwar

    no doubt about it. The natives are restless. They were restless three weeks ago. They are even more restless now.

  17. [JBishop’s body language yesterday was not very good for the Rabbott. A few sitting behind him were quite uncomfortable. That was my reading of it.]

    Victoria

    They should have been uncomfortable. I can’t remember Abbott being so personal with Kevin Rudd. Is it really because she is a woman.

  20. Can anyone remind me of the sexist comments/words that the coalition have used against JG? I am trying to setup a series of tweets on the subject.

  21. blackdog

    I watched his rant yesterday, and I found it extremely draining. I may be a weak person, but it made me slightly ill.

  24. Any read between these lines for us?

    [Earlier, Liberal sources rounded on Climate Change Minister Greg Combet, who had led the attack on Mr Abbott after the rally, saying the former union leader had been involved in a violent protest outside parliament in 1996. But Mr Combet said he had rejected violence.

    Moderate Liberals told The Australian they were unhappy with Mr Abbott’s attendance at the rally and the Coalition’s tactics this week. They said the controversy surrounding his appearance had detracted from the Coalition’s bid to target Labor over policy.

    But while moderates were uncomfortable, they stressed there was no pressure on his leadership because the Coalition continued to perform in opinion polls , with a Newspoll this week putting the Coalition’s primary vote at 40 per cent to Labor’s 36 per cent.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/precious-pm-accuses-hollow-tony-abbott-of-sympathy-for-extremists/story-fn59niix-1226027710349

  26. Victoria said;

    [I am in Melbourne, but I love the Foo fighters.]

    Yes, I just knew you rocked! I too love the FF.

    But I do sometimes lay awake at night wondering about all this ‘Foo’ and why we have to fight it. 😉

  27. victoria,

    You are right there has been a raft of them but I need to be able to google certain words or comments but for the life of me (distracted organising birthday party) my memory cannot recall the exact phrases!

  28. Victoria,

    You’d think that something like that – “winning” the award for sexist remarks – might have featured somewhat prominently by the media during the election campaign, as a means of assisting the electorate to judge the character of the individual putting himself forward as “alternative PM”. But, of course, it didn’t happen, and won’t happen in the future. He’ll be given a free media pass to slither through any indiscretion and outrage.

  29. SK

    What about the one the other day about the royal wedding. Something about not believing in God, not believing in marriage.

    He is always having a dig at her for not being married.

  32. [Can anyone remind me of the sexist comments/words that the coalition have used against JG? I am trying to setup a series of tweets on the subject.]

    Harridan. Back-alley bitch(iness). Slag and bag?

  36. my daughter and i where just discussing abbott and the rally,

    she said’ mum when he walked out the door of parliament house he should of said,; this is very inappropriate i am the oppo, leader of HMS Australian gov.
    and no i am not going to this rally”

    well said , i thought

  39. Just did a rough but pretty reasonable headcount from one of the wide angle shots of the no tax rally. Depth of people x wide of people.

    I reckon 1500 is pretty right on the money. I counted less but there were some people out of shot. So 1500 I am happy with. No way its over two thousand.

  43. [This is the Get up!/ALP/Greens chap who held up the ‘bitch’ sign. I can’t wait for the prospect of Get Up!/ALP and Greens apologizing to Gillard for calling her a bitch. And then Gillard apologizing to Abbott for smearing him!]

    To be fair about all this, many PBers (including myself) were contemplating sabotaging the rally with deliberately offensive and studi signs.

    Let’s face it, if the “bitch” sign was a plant, it had the desired effect. I wouldn’t rule out that it was a bit of counterplay.

    But once there, Abbott should have noticed it and refused to go on, indeed made a point of refusing to go on, while it was up. Any sensible person would have. A sensible “Alternative PM” would have had a battery of minders there, tasked with the sole job of making things look “nice and respectable” for their boss.

    As a result, what Abbott did (and didn’t do) showed him to be unsuitable for national leadership: lacking tact, common sense, and judgement. Further if he knew what was going on this utterly disqualifies him.

    The man is a human train wreck, never happy unless he’s causing trouble and stressing people out. He plays it always to close to the edge. How in the hell anyone could think he wouldn’t impode as actual Prime Minister is beyond me.

  44. PTMD: blaming the victim has always been the hallmark of a bully/thug/rapist.

    “She asked for it because she was wearing/drinking/out late at night” is STILL used as a defence in court, it’s just that these days it is less likely to work. Sometimes, unfortunately, it still does.

  45. queston, why has crickey.com.au not got moderation.

    i ask them why they didnt ask the aust, why they also did not have the pro carbon march on the front of the paper , whats wrong with that.

  48. [Just did a rough but pretty reasonable headcount from one of the wide angle shots of the no tax rally. Depth of people x wide of people.

    I reckon 1500 is pretty right on the money. I counted less but there were some people out of shot. So 1500 I am happy with. No way its over two thousand.]

    I agree, and so do 123,432 penguins (+/- 1000).

  50. I counted no more than 15 people deep and within the frame I was looking at there was about 70-75 wide. My estimate is that there is perhaps another 15-20% out of frame- judging by the width of the lawn. So less than 1500 is accurate enough.

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