The Australian has managed to keep its Newspoll result under wraps until publication, possibly because the highly unexpected result was being quintuple-checked to ensure nothing had gone amiss. The surprise is a big rebound for Labor after a string of poor shows, their primary vote up from an all-time low of 30 per cent to an almost respectable 36 per cent, and the 54-46 deficit recorded in the wake of the carbon tax announcement reversed to a 51-49 surplus (one wonders what metaphor Laurie Oakes might be able to employ this week). Labor has taken a chunk out of both the Coalition, down five points to 40 per cent, and the Greens, down three to 12 per cent (it seems the two-point post-carbon tax rise they recorded a fortnight ago was peculiar to that poll).
Newspoll seems to have hit upon a particularly bad sample for Tony Abbott, whose approval is down six to 33 per cent and disapproval up three to 54 per cent. However, this has not transferred into a huge improvement for Julia Gillard, who after a shocking result last week is up a point on approval to 40 per cent and down four on disapproval to 47 per cent. On preferred prime minister however she is almost back to where she was a month ago: over the past three polls it has progressed from 53-31 to 45-36 to 50-31.
While the figures are hard to believe at face value, this isn’t the first evidence to suggest that Labor has actually recovered slightly since the polls fell in behind 54-46 after the carbon tax announcement. The Morgan phone poll published on Friday, albeit that it came from a small sample, had the Coalition lead at just 51-49, and we have since seen the rolling fortnightly Essential Research track a point in Labor’s direction.
This post began life with a headline announcing the 53-47 to Coalition result in Essential Research, which I ran with as it appeared we wouldn’t be getting a Newspoll. It read thus:
Essential has the Coalition lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up a point to 36 per cent and the Coalition down one to 46 per cent. Tony Abbott has been thrown a curve ball with a question on where the Coalition stood on climate change: 33 per cent believed it opposed any action, 36 per cent believed it supported action and 29 per cent didn’t know. Opinion on the effectiveness of the carbon tax is evenly divided: 43 per cent believe it will make big polluters reduce emissions, 42 per cent believe it will not; 41 per cent believe it will increase investment in renewable energy, 38 per cent believe it will not. While 79 per cent believe a carbon tax will increase the price of electricity, 78 per cent expect it will increase anyway (though presumably not by as much).
The poll also records a slump in support for nuclear power, to 35 per cent from 43 per cent late last year, with opposition up from 37 per cent to 53 per cent – and strong opposition up from 16 per cent to 32 per cent. The level of support for a full withdrawal from Afghanistan is now up to 56 per cent from 47 per cent in October, a steady 30 per cent support the commitment at the current level, and only 5 per cent (down from 10 per cent) believe it should be increased.
Puff
This reminds me of the time when Hanson started making speeches and Howard said nothing, and by the time he made any comment at all, the train had left the station and Hanson had effectively made her point with the aid of the shockjocks.
This is happening again, I fear. But the Libs are so afraid of losing that they are backing Tone. Where are the mature retired wise ones who can pick this up. Fraser is quiet now.
The coalition will be unable to go to the next election with images of Abbott having a 82 second meltdown, and pictures of him in front of those placards being used by Labor
Someone should get it out there in the twitterverse.
“Abbott desperate, calls on the skinny jeans defence”.
lizzie
the Libs are quiet now. They will act when Tony’s position becomes untenable.
Senator Conroy just called Barnaby and his mates “ABSOLUTE FRAUDS”
The Age also llt up with letters condemning the placards at the rally, a number of the comments being from women offended by the sexist language.I think Abbott may have shot himself in the foot big time with this one.
I particularly liked the following one:
“The most worrying aspect of the rally was that Tony Abbott looked right at home in front of the vulgar and offensive signs.”
victoria
I’m torn, torn. I want Abbott to stay there as long as possible to prove what a crazy fool he can be, but I cannot stand hearing the ranting rudeness.
lizzie
I know what you mean. But this country needs to restore some sanity to the dialogue.
How does the saying go, “Fish rots from the head”?
PTMD – disingenousness is your game along with the fool’s game of interpreting jurors’ decisions. There would be have been women on that jury – tell me what your thoughts are about them?
The note addresses a fact which the jurors were required to consider.
PTMD – you have a justified complaint about Abbott’s performance at the protest and thereafter – you are just butchering the good point you had with an overreach.
David Speers asked Hunt why he did not attend rally. Hunt replied that he was busy. Speers said, more busy than the Leader? Touche’.
victoria@4404
Abbott’s position is already untenable. My opinion is that the One Liberal Nation party are leaving him in place solely to inflict maximum damage on Labor – neither Abbott himself, nor his party, really care any longer if he damages himself irreversibly in the process, because they know he will never take them to another election.
Expect things to get uglier.
Oscar
I agree with you in principle, but Abbott is damaging brand liberal in the meantime. It is an extremely risky strategy. It is already backfiring.
From yudoyono’s adviser
[On the Australian proposal to make Timor Leste a regional refugee processing center, Teuku said that the issue would be discussed under the framework of the Bali Process.
“Indonesia has a shared experience in operating a processing center on Galang Island in Batam to help UNHCR processing those who are willing to be categorized as refugees, and to find resettlement countries,” he said.]
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2011/03/23/time-timor-leste-join-asean-sby.html
I think the damage has been done regarding the No Carbon Tax rally. People have seen the images and they are all bad for Abbott. If the ABC are playing a lot of Pyne trying to blame Gillard it will only come across as blatant spin and remind people of all the bad imagery. Same goes for the stuff in the Drum. The more coverage that rally gets, from any perspective, the better for Gillard.
lizzie, Didn’t Fraser resign from the Liberal Party ?
b-g
thanks for posting that article.
Wonder if Morrison is actually worried that this centre may get up?
[I’m torn, torn. I want Abbott to stay there as long as possible to prove what a crazy fool he can be, but I cannot stand hearing the ranting rudeness.]
lizzie, I cannot only stand it, I will set music to it to make it more enjoyable. Go Abbott you bewwwrrrrtiful thing you!
Hey everyone!
I watched online earlier today that cosy little chat Toolman had with Abbott last night.
Oh well, it is The Abbott Broadcasting Corporation after all, and you wonder how long Steve Canane will be tolerated by management.
[what was the tone sic of the letters?]
Gus
Sorry, had to run off and help my mum.
One abhors the fact that Abbott saw fit to stand in front of a crowd of rednecks with placards calling the Prime Minister a “bitch” and a “witch”. He leads a party that declares it represents mainstream Australia
One saying the display of all politicians standing in front of a sexist and demaning placard poses a threat to all women, not only those who aspire to be leaders. Their inaction condoned the disgusting behaviour.
Another saying that if Abbott thinks that the rowdy group displaying many offensive, sexist, disgusting placards is a snapshot of ‘middle Australia” then heaven help us.
CM have conveniently taken out the bitch placard, but left the witch one.
yesterday some Liberals were excusing the placards. Saying that they asked people to take them down etc. Turns out it wasn’t true. The person with the offensive placard said the opposite. No one complained and people were requesting to take photos of it.
The Libs have been spinning. It is backfiring.
I can’t believe shellbell is digging so deep.
ta
anyone pro placards?
or blaming JG?
[I’m torn, torn. I want Abbott to stay there as long as possible to prove what a crazy fool he can be, but I cannot stand hearing the ranting rudeness.]
Lizzie, I have the same problem. I want to see him lose again at the next election, but I also want his loud mouth shut as soon as possible.
.
But I content myself with the thought that sooner or later either way I will get a lot of satisfaction out of it.
It’d serve Abbott right if he got harrassed on his bike ride next week around the country.
Gusface
well Abbott is blaming Gillard for the anger these people feel. She lied to them. Lied Lied Lied.
In other words, she deserves what she is getting.
As Gaffhook said, the skinny jeans defence.
Richo also said on Agenda this morning that the polls will only get worse for Abbott. Not because Gillard is performing well, but because he is so bad and negative.
[anyone pro placards?
or blaming JG?]
Gus
No. How could anyone be pro those placards. I don’t think they would have printed a letter even if they got one.
[Abbott’s position is already untenable.]
It all depends on the polls. A series of 54-46 to Labor would do the trick, but that’s probably asking too much.
Vic
I doubt a regional processing centre will get up in ET. But I think there is stacks that the region can do and will commit too. I am sure the recent visit by the Malasian PM with a signed free-trade deal will help no end.
[well Abbott is blaming Gillard for the anger these people feel. She lied to them. Lied Lied Lied.
In other words, she deserves what she is getting.
As Gaffhook said, the skinny jeans defence]
Victoria
I forgot about Abbott.
[shellbell
Posted Friday, March 25, 2011 at 11:57 am | Permalink
PTMD – disingenousness is your game along with the fool’s game of interpreting jurors’ decisions. There would be have been women on that jury – tell me what your thoughts are about them?
The note addresses a fact which the jurors were required to consider.
PTMD – you have a justified complaint about Abbott’s performance at the protest and thereafter – you are just butchering the good point you had with an overreach.]
Absurd rubbish it was a very commen defence until less than 20 years ago. It was presented in a variety of subtler ways (which clearly you’d miss) and your silly red herring about reading the jurors minds tends to indicate you aren’t just plain ignorant but deliberately and disgusting trying to rewrite this history with stupid word games.
Peter @ 4415
He certainly did, because he could no longer support their policies (read attitude and behaviour). Therefore he has the right to criticise them and be listened to. Perhaps he’s just too tired and dispirited to say anything now.
[Real conservatives should worry too, as they are being associated with these reactionaries, and they will lose credibility for their ideas and beliefs. Abbott is nearly as dangerous for them as for progressives.]
Puff:
In my view the only one harmed as a result of the revolting people parade was Abbott himself. The TV imagery of Pauline Hanson wandering about, plus the footage of Abbott in front of offensive placards sealed his demise.
[No. How could anyone be pro those placards. I don’t think they would have printed a letter even if they got one.]
so only scattered defence by pyney and a weird article in the drum
the meeja hopefully wont let him go on this issue
[Morning all — I am beginning to think I am dreaming.
All this nasty misogynistic rhetoric is Gillard’s fault?
What, did she dictate those signs?]
jen
It’s obvious. It’s all Julia’s fault for being born a woman!
[the meeja hopefully wont let him go on this issue]
I hope you are right. I have never seen Julia so angry as she was yesterday staring Abbott down in the attempted censure motion. She called him sexist, and I’m sure she would have loved to call him more of what he is.
I have deeply disliked Abbott for a while now, but this is purely revolting behaviour.
The “she asked for it” defense was very common up until a decade or more ago. It was very common to get alleged victims of sexual assault in the box and ask them what they were wearing, how were they dancing etc etc.
I’ve come to this discussion late, but really, it’s surely common knowledge this was the case?
In other news, for ay Sydney PB’ers who might be interested, the Foo Fighters are playing the Manning Bar at Sydney Uni tonight from 7.30 pm. Tix on sale at Red Eye, 66 King Street as I type. $53 each, one ticket per person.
No I’m not associated wth the Bar or the store, I just heard and thought I’d post it up.
I can’t get there, but wish I could.
Chris Mitchell (oz editor) on why they didnt put a picture of Abbott at rally on front page
[ Margaret Simons’ comparison of The Age’s coverage of an anti-carbon rally in Canberra to that in The Australian really only betrays her bias and lack of editorial skill. The Australian had as its front page picture display an exclusive Newspoll signalling the most dramatic recovery of a politician in the history of the poll. The poll concerned sitting premier Anna Bligh and was published the day after the announcement that Campbell Newman would campaign for the premier’s job from outside the Parliament and quit his job as Lord Mayor of Brisbane to do so. In a national paper that poll was a far more important story in our biggest market than a rally of 3,000 people in Canberra. I might also point out that rally – organised by a radio station – was covered extensively on the six o’clock news that night. We at The Australian try to develop our own exclusive stories and push our agenda forward so that the evening news follows us rather than the reverse.
Chris Mitchell
Editor-in-Chief
The Australian]
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/contentmakers/2011/03/25/chris-mitchell-of-the-australian-responds/
Burgey
I am in Melbourne, but I love the Foo fighters.
[We at The Australian try to develop our own exclusive stories and push our agenda forward ]
*headdesk*
shellbell
Having women on juries does not mean that female victims will be judged less on dress, manner and morals. (There is a in-depth discussion around the reason for this, too long to go into here.) Effectively the rule of law was/is reversed and a woman has to prove she did not cause the attack, even today. The tight jeans case is an example, amongst many, if you would like to do the search.
I am not butchering my point with over-reach. The ‘over-reach’ is my point. Abbott is tapping into victim-blaming and this is very, very bad for women in this country, as this is a social and psychological belief that is exasperates social and personal damage.
shiny jeans defence,
well they are not saying what i like, so i will write graffiti on the wall then they will catch on they will change because i said so.
i got the feeling this what the graffiti was about on centrelink i saw this week.
and the graffiti on the plackards.
.
[We at The Australian try to develop our own exclusive stories and push our agenda forward]
Well at least they admit to pushing their own agenda.
Barnaby up again.
confessions
the OZ as so obvious about what their Agenda is
[Barnaby up again.]
SELL!!!
Gusface
I am worried I won’t understand what Barnaby is saying
blackdog
what gets me the most about Abbott is that he has three grown daughters. Whether he is really a misoygnist or not is beside the point. What example of a father is he?
vic
i record him and then play it backwards at half speed
it sounds suspicously like
number 9
number 9
number 9
😉
Gusface
🙂
I think I understood Barnaby. He said that people won’t be able to afford to make a phone call. Is that right??