Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

The Australian has managed to keep its Newspoll result under wraps until publication, possibly because the highly unexpected result was being quintuple-checked to ensure nothing had gone amiss. The surprise is a big rebound for Labor after a string of poor shows, their primary vote up from an all-time low of 30 per cent to an almost respectable 36 per cent, and the 54-46 deficit recorded in the wake of the carbon tax announcement reversed to a 51-49 surplus (one wonders what metaphor Laurie Oakes might be able to employ this week). Labor has taken a chunk out of both the Coalition, down five points to 40 per cent, and the Greens, down three to 12 per cent (it seems the two-point post-carbon tax rise they recorded a fortnight ago was peculiar to that poll).

Newspoll seems to have hit upon a particularly bad sample for Tony Abbott, whose approval is down six to 33 per cent and disapproval up three to 54 per cent. However, this has not transferred into a huge improvement for Julia Gillard, who after a shocking result last week is up a point on approval to 40 per cent and down four on disapproval to 47 per cent. On preferred prime minister however she is almost back to where she was a month ago: over the past three polls it has progressed from 53-31 to 45-36 to 50-31.

While the figures are hard to believe at face value, this isn’t the first evidence to suggest that Labor has actually recovered slightly since the polls fell in behind 54-46 after the carbon tax announcement. The Morgan phone poll published on Friday, albeit that it came from a small sample, had the Coalition lead at just 51-49, and we have since seen the rolling fortnightly Essential Research track a point in Labor’s direction.

This post began life with a headline announcing the 53-47 to Coalition result in Essential Research, which I ran with as it appeared we wouldn’t be getting a Newspoll. It read thus:

Essential has the Coalition lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up a point to 36 per cent and the Coalition down one to 46 per cent. Tony Abbott has been thrown a curve ball with a question on where the Coalition stood on climate change: 33 per cent believed it opposed any action, 36 per cent believed it supported action and 29 per cent didn’t know. Opinion on the effectiveness of the carbon tax is evenly divided: 43 per cent believe it will make big polluters reduce emissions, 42 per cent believe it will not; 41 per cent believe it will increase investment in renewable energy, 38 per cent believe it will not. While 79 per cent believe a carbon tax will increase the price of electricity, 78 per cent expect it will increase anyway (though presumably not by as much).

The poll also records a slump in support for nuclear power, to 35 per cent from 43 per cent late last year, with opposition up from 37 per cent to 53 per cent – and strong opposition up from 16 per cent to 32 per cent. The level of support for a full withdrawal from Afghanistan is now up to 56 per cent from 47 per cent in October, a steady 30 per cent support the commitment at the current level, and only 5 per cent (down from 10 per cent) believe it should be increased.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,659 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. jaundiced view@35

    One thing in Libya I’m surprised by is the prominence of the part being taken by the US. They weren’t supposed to be at the vanguard were they? I hope they slink into the background as it goes on, and leave it to the Europeans. It’s best if this looks from the outside, especially in the Arab world like the UN peace-keeping, citizen-protecting job that it is, rather than yet another unilateral US military adventure.

    The US has the equipment to launch the first strike – cruise missiles and stealth bombers.

    I would expect them to minimise their role from here on. There are a lot of countries actively in now – Canada, Denmark, Spain, Italy, France, Qatar have all either already struck or moved planes to air bases in position.

  5. 54

    All taxation is social engineering. Pretty much all of what governments do is social engineering. Complaining something is social engineering is a conservative tactic used against policies they do not like.

  7. Further to my comment at 55.

    Conservatives should be reminded that Law and Order and Property are major social engineering.

  8. Michael Cusack

    “My Say, earlier tonight you mentioned that you would like to visit your uncles war grave in France. Unfortunately I can’t take you with me, but my daughter and I will be visiting several CWG cemeteries in France, Belgium and Germany in early june and taking photos of some relatives headstones. Would you like us to take some photos for you? It would be no trouble and I would be happy to help out in a small way. If you would like us to do so, ask William for my contact details and we can make the arrangements re locations, names etc”.

    Michael Cusack, how consoling and wonderfully generational, both your intended journey and beautiful offer to My Say.

  10. Wow 51-49 to labor Newspoll

    [Based on preference flows at the 2010 election, the ALP now leads the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis of 51 to 49 per cent]

  12. imacca

    Spotted.

    How interesting is that?

    “Based on preference flows at the 2010 election, the ALP now leads the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis of 51 to 49 per cent – the first time it has been in front on a two-party preferred vote in Newspoll since November last year”.

    Is Newspoll hitting back, at its master? Who wants only to tell us what we should think.

    Perhaps some more pertinent questions were asked. Hence the non release.

    More reason to cease expending unnecessary emotion on Poll Fairies.

    Though, Tony … sure hope you are less sanguine than I.

  15. [But it’s getting a good run on talkback radio.

    Chris Smith, who broadcasts on Sydney’s 2GB and Melbourne’s MTR, has been pushing hard on the issue and will be speaking at an anti-carbon tax rally in Canberra this Wednesday. Smith, who ran a competition for listeners to guess how many asylum seeker funerals were being held earlier this year, is not alone on this issue.

    By now we have all heard about the Prime Minister’s testy interviews with Alan Jones (who chided her for being late and called her by her first name) and Neil Mitchell. Callers to such programs frequently vent their frustration about being denied a vote on the issue and about how much tax they pay, with the Jones’ childish nickname for the PM, “Ju-liar”, popping up regularly. The influence of talkback should not be overstated. The shock jocks are largely preaching to the converted, even though they often claim to find people who always voted Labor until this latest talk of a carbon tax.

    The groups involved in this burgeoning movement are not single-issue groups who merely oppose the carbon tax. The groups opposing the tax (and indeed any price on carbon) are an alliance of climate sceptics, Liberal Party affiliates, the infamous far-right League of Rights, the absurdly titled Australian Tea Party and others whose websites promote campaigns as diverse as opposition to the Fair Work Act, to the mining tax, to the United Nations. Like One Nation (who also support the campaign) in the 1990s, the anti-carbon tax campaign has united a number of far-right groups together under the one banner.

    The links to the Liberal Party are particularly interesting. There are two obvious examples. The website CANdo (the Conservative Action Network) was started with funding from Liberal Senator Cory Bernardi as a “Facebook for conservatives”. Senator Bernardi, an arch-conservative recently in the headlines for anti-Islamic statements, has called it “political activism for the 21st century”. The other is Menzies House, who have started a separate website in opposition to the tax. Menzies House was launched with support from Senator Bernardi.

    Menzies House also made the news in February after an attack on Shadow Treasurer and leading Liberal moderate Joe Hockey was published on the website, which highlighted internal divisions within the Liberal Party. While the party took an emissions trading scheme to the 2007 election, since the split at the end of 2009 the hardliners have been in the ascendancy and the moderates have fallen into line as Abbott prosecutes his anti-tax campaign. We now have not only Turnbull, well known for his support of a price on carbon, but also environment spokesman Greg Hunt who wrote a dissertation on the merits of carbon pricing, opposing the Government’s plan.]

    http://newmatilda.com/2011/03/21/peoples-revolt-really

  16. They are going to have to ditch Abbott and backflip on the Carbon Tax now but their opposition will haunt them at the next election.

  17. The figures as they lean towards Labor may be helpful.

    I am not necessarily thrilled about the numbers, albeit a substantial improvement.

    Tony is in a much worse position.

    Julia, unlike Tony, at least has a number of reliable spokespeople who should continue to make the case, where it apparently matters most.

    Hip pocket.

    Apart from the teensy gap in the weensy minds of the shock jocks audiences, who seem to dominate what passes for considered thought in any media at the moment, maybe, just maybe, the promise of $ will take them there.

    And maybe, just maybe, it may dawn that Tony is going to cost a lot, lot, more.

    Christmas Island can wait as long as it likes for Father or Mother, it would seem.

    No Labor or Liberal sleigh in sight. Disgraceful, Labor.

  19. Gamely ventured a direct look at the Oztriche.

    Dennis, re Julia’s approach.

    “It’s a risky strategy that could lead to a breach with the Greens and a subsequent failure to implement the carbon tax, which would be a victory for Abbott”.

    As if the Greens would let that happen. Dream on Dennis.

  21. Our ABC not reporting Newspoll. How odd, they are usually 1st cab off the rank if they can push an anti Labor headline out of it.

  23. Interesting result. I definitely suspect it’s a rogue, but it’s still apparent there may be some narrowing going on. The opposition kicked off really well in the carbon tax debate but since then have completely blundered. Still way too early, of course.

  24. [The Australian has managed to keep its Newspoll result under wraps until publication, possibly because the highly unexpected result was being quintuple-checked to ensure nothing had gone amiss. The surprise is a big rebound for Labor after a string of poor shows, their primary vote up from an all-time low of 30 per cent to an almost respectable 36 per cent, and the 54-46 deficit recorded in the wake of the carbon tax announcement has been reversed to a 51-49 surplus (one wonders what metaphor Laurie Oakes might be able to employ this week]

    Well, well, well, well:

    1. Sure, there is No conspiracy at the Oz

    2. Watch the MSM to bury this, exhibit 1: #ABCNews12. hardly get mention, whereas the last Newspoll, it was “Gillard crashed”

    3. Never stand between a bucket of money and the punters. Labor is starting to win the Pollution Tax debate

    4. Watch the Coalition and MSM to switch back and focus on the old fav STOP THE BOATS!!!!!

    5. Trioli and Mellisa Clarke didnt look happy this morning

    6. Tony Abbott flip flop flip flop on CC is starting bite. Labor should keep on hammering his. Abbott wont last long once because the Party is carrying him, not the other way around. Turnbull and Hockey must be right behind him ready to push him off Watson Bay.

    Happy days are here again. Have faith.

  25. [Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    @
    @LaTrioli Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor , Trigger, give us a smile #ABCNews12 #auspol
    now ]

    [Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    @
    @michellegrattan i expect a fair and balance analysis on Radio RN this morning with #Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor to cheer up Fran #ABCnews24
    1 minute ago ]

  26. [To Speak of Pebbles
    Posted Tuesday, March 22, 2011 at 6:23 am | Permalink

    Interesting result. I definitely suspect it’s a rogue, but it’s still apparent there may be some narrowing going on. The opposition kicked off really well in the carbon tax debate but since then have completely blundered. Still way too early, of course.]

    Pretty much my view, Pebbles. It seems too big a turn-around in too short a time. Of course the opposition have been acting like negative idiots, but they were doing that in the preceding weeks when the ratings were better.

    Essential and Morgan suggest a slight narrowing- so it is probably occurring but we’re unclear on the rate. They all suggest the foolhardiness of closely monitoring the polls now, when it is clear the Government has to play for the longer game and absorb whatever fear hits there are now.

    I did suspect the 46-54 was a noise reaction to the outrage being expressed on radio and TV and that this would settle down to a more even figure over time.

    All the same, taken along with the very confident parliament performance by the PM and all Ministers today … it would suggest that the government has chosen the right course for the nation and public respect for it will follow.

  27. They wanted a regime change in Iraq so they found their excuse in WMD.

    They wanted a regime change in Libya so they found their excuse in “protecting the people’

    nothing change.

  28. Yes, pity the Arabs people.

    But then again, there are no permanent friendship, only permanent interests. the Chinese have learned this well, very well.

    [This double standard – aggressively intervening to protect innocent civilians in Libya, but staring at the ceiling and whistling as dictators murder their people in Bahrain and Yemen – is already apparent. ”If things keep getting worse in Yemen, where it’s potentially a lot bloodier, then it’s going to become increasingly uncomfortable for the West,” Bubalo observes.

    So the answer is that no one will protect the innocent civilians of Bahrain and Yemen. The West’s words will indeed be hollow.

    Hypocrisy? Yes. But also realism. As one of the eminent figures in Australian foreign policy, Owen Harries, puts it: ”The West seems committed to pursuing two incompatible ends in the Middle East.

    ”One is democracy, the other is stability. The West fluctuates between emphasis on one and then the other. Democracy, once it’s in place, is a stabilising force. But the process of getting there is highly destabilising.”

    The intervention in Libya is not a precedent. Pity the Arab peoples who expect it will be.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/wests-outrage-is-tempered-by-alliances-20110321-1c3pv.html

  29. Labor’s slump was headline news a fortnight ago.

    Its revival doesn’t rate a mention on ABC Radio bulletins at 6am and 6.30 today.

  30. I don’t think the latest outbreak of self indulgence by the LNP in Queensland demanding that city hall become the State Government is going to help the Rabbott cause either. There only has to be a sniff of LNP brawling in Queensland for Tory polling figures to begin seriously heading south. Now the CMC has been dragged into the brawl it is at least guaranteed to go on for some time.

  31. Thefinnigans The Finnigans
    A credit to #Slynews for giving the #Newspoll a reasonable coverage whereas #TheirABC coverage is truly pathetic compared to 2 weeks ago
    now

  33. Did they poll the cyclone flood affected areas this time, they missed them the last few times, may account for some of the swing, especially with Tones comment that god smotes the just and unjust alike.

  34. This is a terrible Newspoll for the Coalition overall, and for Abbott in particular.

    Satisfaction has fallen 6 points,
    Disatisfaction is up a further three

    5 points change over last Newspoll on 2PP.

    Is it possible to have two outliers in a row?

  36. Mr Squiggle: that occurred to me as well, but I suspect that, rather than being an “outlier” in its strictest sense, the last one represented a small under-representation of the Labor vote and this one is closer to the truth.

    I think the Coalition have seriously misread the issue of climate change. They have tried belatedly to change the perspective that they aren’t a party of deniers, but having a leader that shilly-shallies between belief and scepticism has not helped their cause one bit.

    On the weekend, I met a couple of people who I would not have pegged as being Labor supporters, but they are sick to the back teeth of Abbott’s negativity and, on this issue, they want action. As I said yesterday, they believe that any compensation the Government can offer them is very welcome, because they are already feeling cost of living constraints and believe this compensation will help them.

    I suspect they aren’t alone, which is why the Opposition’s blanket statement that they will repeal any tax cuts was just breathtaking in its stupidity.

  37. Well. good morning all!
    The NewsPoll vacuum from last night has certainly been filled.
    Looking back, Jason Clare’s snap audience poll on QandA on who thinks Abbott believes in CC may have been a strong indicator of the dynamics leading to the turn around.
    Let the unhingement begin!

  38. Thanks Paul

    That bit on Newman tilting for lnp leader has Langbroek blaming the faceless men in the lnp accusing them of plotting agin him.

    will the msm go as feral on the lnp as they did on labors faceless men?

  39. [Is it possible to have two outliers in a row?]

    That’s what I’m thinking

    [Jason Clare’s snap audience poll on QandA on who thinks Abbott believes in CC may have been a strong indicator of the dynamics leading to the turn around.]

    BK

    What was the result? – I didn’t watch.

  40. The Queensland LNP seem to be doing a fine imitation of a rabble

    [
    With 12 months to go until the next Queensland election, LNP members are fearful they will yet again be consigned to the opposition benches amid going party in-fighting and a botched plot to parachute Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman into state politics.

    The LNP is still leading in the polls – 55-45 on a two-party prefered basis – but John-Paul Langbroek’s vacillation and the plot to bring in an outsider to win the election for the party smacks of desperation.

    “We might as well write off the 2012 election and concentrate on 2015,” one senior MP said.

    Mr Langbroek’s attempt to muscle up to the “faceless men” in his own party undermining him through leaks and secret polls was undermined by his almost immediate backdown.

    LNP president Bruce McIver has let it be known he has no intention of leaving, creating a difficult impasse.

    Likewise, Mr Langbroek’s comment that he is interested to hear from Brisbane lord mayor Campbell Newman – puts him on the back foot.

    ]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/commentary/disasters-blow-away-lnp/story-e6frgd0x-1226025674214

  41. Post from the BBC borads:

    [2047: Adam, in New York, writes: “The Libyan building by the UN in New York, which had continued to fly Gaddafi’s Green flag throughout this uprising, has now replaced it with the rebel tri-colour flag. I can see it from my window.”]

  43. 2GB mentioned the Newspoll in their news bulletins, but then Alan Jones tried to write it off as a rogue poll, Jason Morrison doing the same on 2UE. 😆
    At least a little less gloating on Radio Liberal today.

  44. [Worth a look though for the lovely picture of JG sticking it to Abbott.]

    …. and yes, Abbott has been tearing his hair out.

  47. morning bludgers

    I could not believe my ears during the 7.00 am news on ABC. It was reported that Labor had bounced back in the polls. Mind you it was only briefly mentioned. I put on Sky news and they crossed to Kieran Gilbert who was stammering to explain the poll. They then went to an excerpt of Abbott speaking on 2ue this morning. Abbott was basically saying that the media helps Labor with its messaging?? I was flabbergasted.

  48. [On the question of who would be the better prime minister, Ms Gillard made rapid ground on Mr Abbott, with a rise from 45 per cent to 50 per cent, while Mr Abbott’s support fell from 36 per cent two weeks ago to 31 per cent.]

    This is the quality of journalism we have to endure in this country. First we have Michelle Gratten’s inability to pick up a dictionary and now we have Dennis Shannahan using “coming from behind” language to describe the PM increasing her already commanding lead as PPM!

    Sheesh!

  50. To
    Only one hand in the audience went up after Tony Jones – with much protestation from Pyne, the playground nark – asked them properly.

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