The Australian has managed to keep its Newspoll result under wraps until publication, possibly because the highly unexpected result was being quintuple-checked to ensure nothing had gone amiss. The surprise is a big rebound for Labor after a string of poor shows, their primary vote up from an all-time low of 30 per cent to an almost respectable 36 per cent, and the 54-46 deficit recorded in the wake of the carbon tax announcement reversed to a 51-49 surplus (one wonders what metaphor Laurie Oakes might be able to employ this week). Labor has taken a chunk out of both the Coalition, down five points to 40 per cent, and the Greens, down three to 12 per cent (it seems the two-point post-carbon tax rise they recorded a fortnight ago was peculiar to that poll).
Newspoll seems to have hit upon a particularly bad sample for Tony Abbott, whose approval is down six to 33 per cent and disapproval up three to 54 per cent. However, this has not transferred into a huge improvement for Julia Gillard, who after a shocking result last week is up a point on approval to 40 per cent and down four on disapproval to 47 per cent. On preferred prime minister however she is almost back to where she was a month ago: over the past three polls it has progressed from 53-31 to 45-36 to 50-31.
While the figures are hard to believe at face value, this isn’t the first evidence to suggest that Labor has actually recovered slightly since the polls fell in behind 54-46 after the carbon tax announcement. The Morgan phone poll published on Friday, albeit that it came from a small sample, had the Coalition lead at just 51-49, and we have since seen the rolling fortnightly Essential Research track a point in Labor’s direction.
This post began life with a headline announcing the 53-47 to Coalition result in Essential Research, which I ran with as it appeared we wouldn’t be getting a Newspoll. It read thus:
Essential has the Coalition lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up a point to 36 per cent and the Coalition down one to 46 per cent. Tony Abbott has been thrown a curve ball with a question on where the Coalition stood on climate change: 33 per cent believed it opposed any action, 36 per cent believed it supported action and 29 per cent didn’t know. Opinion on the effectiveness of the carbon tax is evenly divided: 43 per cent believe it will make big polluters reduce emissions, 42 per cent believe it will not; 41 per cent believe it will increase investment in renewable energy, 38 per cent believe it will not. While 79 per cent believe a carbon tax will increase the price of electricity, 78 per cent expect it will increase anyway (though presumably not by as much).
The poll also records a slump in support for nuclear power, to 35 per cent from 43 per cent late last year, with opposition up from 37 per cent to 53 per cent – and strong opposition up from 16 per cent to 32 per cent. The level of support for a full withdrawal from Afghanistan is now up to 56 per cent from 47 per cent in October, a steady 30 per cent support the commitment at the current level, and only 5 per cent (down from 10 per cent) believe it should be increased.
[Let the unhingement begin!]
I thought it bgan long ago BK and Tone was moving to full on detachment.
[Dare I hope that there’s a swing back to Labor in NSW & the election on Saturday won’t be a total disaster?]
Interesting.
I wonder if the NSW voters are now better able to distinguish between Federal and State Labor.
Shamahan was on ABC 774 last night, and was twisting and turning regarding the state of play in politics. I knew something was up by his sheer bulldust. He certainly knew the poll results. No wonder he was talking out of his proverbial as usual.
Does anyone have an update on the proposed rail line through Sydney’s west promised in the Federal campaign?
[Interesting result. I definitely suspect it’s a rogue, but it’s still apparent there may be some narrowing going on. The opposition kicked off really well in the carbon tax debate but since then have completely blundered. Still way too early, of course.]
My bet, TSOP , is that the previous poll was a bit on the low side and this one is a little on the high side. Labor probably also got a bit of a bounce from JG’s US visit (which was just getting under way at the time of the last poll). Labor may have also received a bit of a boost from the “nuclear power” schemmozzle in Japan. I suspect that the libs are seen as more “pro” nuclear than labor, Martin Ferguson notwithstanding.
Governments also often seem to get a bit of a boost when bad things (like tsunamis and wars) are going on elsewhere in the world and dominating the news cycles. Something to do with perceptions of “safety” I suspect.
@ Tom Hawkins
The audience poll had 1 person only put their hand up thinking Abbott would take any action on CC. It looked bad actually for the LNP whilst Pyne tried to rescue the situation.
Just back from early pathology visit. Read a print version of the Hun in the waiting room (would never buy of course). Not a mention of the Newspoll. Maybe they’re now in sync with the ABC rather than the OO.
Fairly apolitical mostly, biggest coverage Prince William then Libya Japan and sport. A bit of politics in the middle including a rant from Hewitt or somebody about tax. No Bolt -perhaps he’s still in shock or apoplexy about the Newspoll.
Extraordinary that there is no mention of the Newspoll results on the ABC News website. They never fail to reportt if Labor is taking a shellacking but now zilch. If ever we needed proof that their newsroom is staffed with liberal Party stogges.
Thanks Paul and BK. I can only imagine how high in the polls Labor would be soaring if the respective treatment from the media was turned about face i.e. Abbott was pilloried and JG was praised. Labor would be unbackable.
[Governments also often seem to get a bit of a boost when bad things (like tsunamis and wars) are going on elsewhere in the world and dominating the news cycles. Something to do with perceptions of “safety” I suspect.]
That’s true, Rod, but I suspect something else is at play here.
We’ve been saying for ages that it was only a matter of time before the controlled, consistent and even-tempered “election” Tony Abbott imploded and the “real” Tony Abbott took over and when this happened his appeal would wane. I think that has now happened and the media are onto it.
We have had the “is he or isn’t he a racist?” Tony: first his support of his Immigration shadow when he overstepped the line re the As funerals, his disingenuous response to the Queensland flood levy, then his statement that it is okay to throw money at NZ on the grounds that they aren’t truly foreigners. Then he supports the relief effort in Japan with no mention of whether or not they are foreigners.
We’ve had the “is he or isn’t he a climate sceptic?” Tony: one minute he believes it’s crap, then he believes it is real but not caused by humans, then it IS caused by humans, then he parrots the middle ages warming argument to a group of schoolkids and all the time he is opposing plans to fix the problem. And let’s not forget he got the top job in the first place BECAUSE of the backing of the Party’s deniers.
The media’s tone (pardon the pun) has certainly changed over the past couple of weeks. He is no longer being boosted to the same extent that he previously was (even where there is general Coalition boosting) and is now starting to get some hard questions asked of him. Finally, they seem to have tired of his “entertainment value” and are now looking at him as someone who has the potential to be Australia’s worst Prime Minister – and they don’t like what they see.
Meanwhile, Malcolm Turnbull is in the wings, grinning like a Cheshire Cat and waiting for the right moment.
Maybe Abbott yesterday knew about the Newspoll, because he certainly seemed less bombastic than usual in QT!
I put it down to an improved showing from Gillard, & it didn’t hurt either that Rudd was so prominent on the Japanese earthquake/tsunami & Libya – maybe they’ve finally worked out that Kevin is still an asset to this government?
steve@81
Don’t forget to vote for newman on the poll to stir things up – he is winning the poll easily so far.
This poll shows Garnaut’s speech last Thursday has turned things around on the carbon tax. It was a brilliant stroke and he and Ken Henry get my vote. Abbott is stuffed now. Where does he go from here? The “people’s revolt” tomorrow will now be even more of a failure. The US of A this country isn’t and tactics like that are seen through by Aussies.
This poll, if confirmed over the next few weeks, also demonstrates how starved voters have been for leadership. Labor should push boldly forward from here.
The minority government is their saviour. It will teach them how to lead, which they would not have been doing had they won a majority.
I can’t see why a margin of error should generate any reaction at all.
[So the answer is that no one will protect the innocent civilians of Bahrain and Yemen. The West’s words will indeed be hollow.]
The way things are going in Yemen at present it is looking as if they may sort it out all by themselves, finns.
http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2011/03/2011321164113728994.html
12 point swing ! Brilliant !! Sloppy and Robb will be sharpening their machete’s as we speak 🙂
victoria@96
ABC News radio gave it a very good run – read it out in some detail from the OO before the news itself at 6 am and then another detailed report in the news proper.
Vomit warning! Puff adder on Agenda with Emerson.
Tom Hawkins@103
Albo has stated on several occasions that the promise was a Labor comittment which it would keep and that it would not allow the funds to go to some other project.
O’Farrell’s huffing and puffing with only firm Federal Labors resolve.
Abbott defending his poor Newspoll numbers
[
“It’s very hard to beat incumbents, even really bad incumbents like this one,” Mr Abbott told Fairfax Radio Network today.
“Incumbent governments have so much ability to influence newsmakers, have so much ability to set the agenda, it’s hard to knock them off.
“The fundamentals are that this is a government which has lost control of our borders, a government which is about to whack us with a great big tax that will send jobs offshore and hit our standard of living.”
]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/tony-abbott-defends-bad-rating-in-newspoll/story-fn3dxity-1226025817295
This is a boost. What do I enjoy more. Labor’s stocks going up, or the Coal’s faces n the mud? 👿
[The surprise is a big rebound for Labor after a string of poor shows, their primary vote up from an all-time low of 30 per cent to an almost respectable 36 per cent, and the 54-46 deficit recorded in the wake of the carbon tax announcement has been reversed to a 51-49 surplus (one wonders what metaphor Laurie Oakes might be able to employ this week.]
Isn’t it obvious. Laurie will be playing a RPG while discussing the poll. At the end he will say that the poll, just like his character, was a rogue.
But on face value you would have to say this is way too good for Labor. The next Newspoll will probably go backwards and the headlines will be all doom and gloom again.
“I wonder if the NSW voters are now better able to distinguish between Federal and State Labor.”
I always felt that getting the NSW millstone off it’s back will be a significant point in a Federal Labor fight-back. Maybe punters have jumped the gun.
One safe prediction: more meltdowns from Coalition MPs in today’s Question Time! 😆
49 Michael Cusack
how wonderful i dont beleive it, yes william will give you my email address, as it s our dream to do so to some time.
At the moment my oh is doing a history of the school he works at if that is your surname it comes up quite a bit in the school history.
wow thank you.
i will get my oh to get in to the memorial details to get the number of the grave ect.
how we stumbled on this some 4 years ago the college students went to France and oh looked to the arrangements and rang me really excited as he had found our robert mcdougalls memorial site. See i alwasy say one guardian angel works in mysterious ways we know nothing about.
you just happened to be around when i wrote this.
thank you so much this is unbeleivable. see william what you can do other than politcis.
[Maybe Abbott yesterday knew about the Newspoll, because he certainly seemed less bombastic than usual in QT!]
I thought the same thing. If that is the case (and we’ll never know) it says to me that the OO had the poll results checked and ready to publish by mid afternoon at the latest yet they deliberately kept it under wraps until 2.00 am today. Why? Obviously to limit the reporting in this morning’s papers and radio.
abbott will be *road kill* in quick time unless he can recover in the polls. The main reason he is still LOTO is his polls, notwithstanding the serious doubts about him being able to actually deliver the libs government.
After the new senate comes in its about time for the libs to settle on which leader they want to take them into the 2013 election.
How many people think abbott will still be LOTO by this Christmas ? Not me.
He still hasn’t faced a feature interview since *shit happens*. If the rally fails tomorrow it will be another nail in his coffin.
Evan i think the reason they went off the carbon tax well in the outside chatter department because yesterday i t was there is no compensation ect and then on to christmas isl is that they new. i bet they find out before the public.
one cannot work out the australian people, i am bit perplexed it seems money is king.
tax cuts means more than saving the earth or the future of their family
O well so be it if thats what we have to do.
question time is definitely a day for choclate bis, and lots of good wine.lol
problem if i did that i would be asleep by dinner time.
evan14@121
Harry’s got their measure. No more Mr Nice Guy. He has tolerated a lot from them.
I got the impression Pyne was really peeved about Garnaut talking up tax cuts to compensation for the carbon tax. Perhaps the compensation package has popped the fear campaign balloon and the punters are seeing the silver lining might be quite large, or at least they are adopting a wait-and-see approach.
Either way it’s good news. It might be rogueish, it might not.
[they want to take them into the 2013 election.
How many people think abbott will still be LOTO by this Christmas ? Not me.
He still hasn’t faced a feature interview since *shit happens*. If the rally fails tomorrow it will be another nail in his coffin.]
i was watching martha stewart and i flicked through the channels and saw it, i was gob smacked.
so how must they feel lol, but what was it any one have any ideas how the average aust. brain works
do you know i dont think this is a rogue poll i just dont feel it is.
Gadhaffi’s son was reportedly killed by a suicide plane attack. That would be a lot better than if it was the coalition.
[COLONEL Muammar Gaddafi has suffered a massive personal setback with one of his sons reportedly killed in a suicide air mission on his barracks.
Khamis, 27, who runs the feared Khamis Brigade that has been prominent in its role of attacking rebel-held areas, is said to have died on Saturday night.
A Libyan air force pilot crashed his jet into the Bab al-Aziziya compound in Tripoli in a kamikaze attack, Algerian TV reported following an unsubstantiated claim by an anti-Gaddafi media organisation.]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/libyan-ceasefire-declared-as-missile-destroys-gadaffi-building/story-fn87qlu5-1226025732360
[“It’s very hard to beat incumbents, even really bad incumbents like this one]
dont you just love this excuse, [ if such a bad imcumbent why the poll tony]
I stopped listening to Neil Mitchell 3aw a long time ago. I remember why. What a pain in the backside.
The PM was on his program taking calls are carbon tax, so I decided to listen. Mitchell is so frustrating. Anyhow the PM did her best to get the message through.
my say
Unless we get a few more reliable polls in the same timeframe, which will not happen, we’ll never really know if it was a rogue or not.
Polls have the “shape of water”.
Diogenes
What exactly is the radio active substance used to kill off the thyroid gland?
Diod
Khamis has reportedly died several times this last week. Lets wait and see. Propaganda is rife on all sides.
Do we know if this poll included the previously excluded flood areas?
Isn’t that the third time he has been reported killed? He must have good doctors.
Rod,
Are you about? I know this is an area of interest for you.
There is a shocking case in WA of an Aboriginal man held in prison in WA without trial under a Mentally Ill Accused Review Board order for TEN YEARS! He now has his own supported place where he spends his day release, a funding package from Disability Services for support, and now had his day release cancelled, even though he has no negative behaviour reports. He was originally was charged with sexual offences with two underage females but charges have since been withdrawn, and the women are not against that.
It was discussed on ABC national Law Report today. Something needs to be done about some of the laws in this country, but it is a state matter.
http://www.abc.net.au/rn/lawreport/stories/2011/3169426.htm
Re Q&A last night!
No wonder chose Lachlan Harris to be on his staff he is a really impressive young man.
Paricularly impressed me with his expressions of loyalty to Rudd.
What on earth is Miranda Devine doing on a program like that she is only good for expressing the company line. Geez!
bg
Perhaps he is the undead?
mtbw
It’s radioactive iodine (I 131 from vague memory).
And Yemen is in a lot of trouble/
[A top military commander and at least 18 other senior officers defected Monday to the opposition movement demanding the ouster of Yemen’s embattled president, depriving the U.S.-allied ruler of most of his power base.
The looming collapse of President Ali Abdullah Saleh’s regime throws into doubt the American campaign against a major al-Qaida wing that plotted attacks in the United States.]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/03/21/yemen-army-commanders-defect_n_838272.html
Morning Bludgers,
I missed Q&A last night, could someone please tell me when the informal poll on Abbott’s CC credentials took place? I want to see WhineyPyney’s face but can’t stomach sitting through a single MDevine comment to do so.
Should have been “Rudd chose”. Too early in the morning!
i couldnt not help my self pb. I went back and read all the posts till you found the
[newstory-fn59niix-1226025750914
60 Paul_J
Posted Tuesday, March 22, 2011 at 2:28 am | Permalink
Wow 51-49 to labor Newspoll
Based on preference flows at the 2010 election, the ALP now leads the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis of 51 to 49 per cent
61 Paul_J
Posted Tuesday, March 22, 2011 at 2:29 am | Permalink
The sneaky buggers slipped it in while most people are asleep
62 crikey whitey
Posted Tuesday, March 22, 2011 at 2:37 am | Permalink
imacca
Spotted.
How interesting is that?
“Based on preference flows at the 2010 election, the ALP now leads the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis of 51 to 49 per cent – the first time it has been in front on a two-party preferred vote in Newspoll since November last year”.
Is Newspoll hitting back, at its master? Who wants only to tell us what we should think.
Perhaps some more pertinent questions were asked. Hence the non release.
More reason to cease expending unnecessary emotion on Poll Fairies.
Though, Tony … sure hope you are less sanguine than I.
s poll. its like finding a hidden secret we where not supposed to know ]’
[Re Q&A last night!
No wonder chose Lachlan Harris to be on his staff he is a really impressive young man.
Paricularly impressed me with his expressions of loyalty to Rudd.
What on earth is Miranda Devine doing on a program like that she is only good for expressing the company line. Geez!]
Harris & Rudd keep in very close contact – Harris was quite impressive last night.
Miranda was her usual, embarrassing self – the ABC sure goes to the bottom of the barrel when they want to hire right wing talking heads for their discussion shows. 😉
Pardon my scepticism, but I wonder if the real purpose of this poll is to prepare the ground for another carefully-staged weekly set of headlines along the lines of “Labor support plummets again!”
Without bumping up Labor’s percentage with one big hit on a busy news week, recurrent ‘Labor vote in freefall’ headlines were becoming difficult to sustain, as Newspoll couldn’t keep dropping Labor’s vote share much longer before it hit zero (at which point, people might start asking questions…)
Of course, that is purely a whimsical speculation. I am not seriously suggesting a reputable, widely-respected polling organisation such as Newspoll would ever be anything but truthful, nor would The Australian ever deviate from truthful, balanced reporting. Of course.
I hereby patent “the Albatross”.
as in Tony Abbott is the ALBATROSS around the Liberal Party’s neck.
Evan
Loved it when Harris was asked did he leak against Julia and he responded with a definite “no”. Punched the air I did!